Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen v St. Mirren

Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 9

Forecast

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.371.08
Win43%29%
Expected Points1.571.15
Clean sheet34%25%

Aberdeen 43%Draw 28%St. Mirren 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%9%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawSt. Mirren win
Aberdeen
Top six23%31%21%15%
11th16%12%16%20%
Bottom15%10%16%19%
St. Mirren
Top six32%24%32%45%
11th12%14%12%8%
Bottom10%13%9%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  2. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  3. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  4. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  5. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  6. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10

St. Mirren

  1. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  2. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  3. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  4. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  5. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41
  6. D3–330 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.92–2.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Position8th7th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠43–⁠1–⁠4
Points8 (1.00 per game)10 (1.25 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.19
Goals7–⁠98–⁠14
xG per game1.04–⁠1.611.47–⁠1.91
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.33–⁠1.541.00, 1.86–⁠2.10
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.75–⁠1.691.50, 1.09–⁠1.72
ManagerStephen Robinson (17)Craig McLeish (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.11, 10thSt. Mirren1.10, 11thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.47, 9thSt. Mirren1.44, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.11St. Mirren attack: 1.101.111.10St. MirrenAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.47St. Mirren defence: 1.441.471.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−50%−14%−21%+1%
Counter-attacks−64%+24%+85%+43%
Set pieces+30%−7%−33%+1%
Penalties−40%+80%+20%+140%
Headers+56%−23%−50%−14%
Left side−61%+11%−13%+3%
Centre−32%−41%−7%−34%
Right side−7%+28%−11%+73%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−61%+73%Centre−32%−34%Right side−7%+3%Open play−50%+1%Counter-attacks−64%+43%Set pieces+30%+1%Headers+56%−14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−13%+28%Centre−7%−41%Right side−11%+11%Open play−21%−14%Counter-attacks+85%+24%Set pieces−33%−7%Headers−50%−23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.04xG1.47
1.61xG against1.91
48%Possession48%
11.5Shots13.5
15.9Shots against15.2
2.9Shots on target3.5
1.5Big chances2.2
22.0Touches in the opposition box26.0
399Passes436
78%Pass accuracy80%
6.1Corners4.2
42%Field tilt47%
38.6Final-third entries39.2
12.5Box entries14.2
14.0Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.61
Ahead120.841.56
Behind391.171.64

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.702.25
Ahead321.401.23
Behind271.312.33

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.220–3
16–300.120.221–0
31–450.120.401–3
46–600.120.161–1
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.490.264–0

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.412–3
16–300.200.231–2
31–450.250.333–2
46–600.170.460–3
61–750.380.201–1
76–900.380.291–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Aberdeen

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
GyamfiInjuryDoubtful00
TobersInjuryMid October 202600

St. Mirren

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DijksteelInjuryMid October 202600
AyungaInjuryEarly January 202700
BaccusInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 8Cadden 7Lyons 1Mayo 6Milne 2Knoester 4Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 7Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Armstrong 2Aremu 7Briedl 2Marshall 3Yogane 1Yogane 3Mouloua 2Olusanya 2Nisbet 85-3-2 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 8Ramsay 6Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 7Jackson 1Fraser 1Fieldson 7John 7Sule 1Carr 8Nsio 5Taylor 2Phillips 1Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Mochrie 1Taylor 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Mochrie 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 May 2026Aberdeen0–2St. MirrenxG 0.53–1.50
4 April 2026St. Mirren2–0AberdeenxG 0.90–0.53
3 December 2025Aberdeen3–3St. MirrenxG 2.08–1.83
18 October 2025St. Mirren0–1AberdeenxG 0.48–2.05
3 May 2025St. Mirren1–0AberdeenxG 1.22–0.47
25 January 2025Aberdeen0–3St. MirrenxG 1.41–1.78

22 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 6, St. Mirren won 11, and 5 were drawn. Goals 29–35 and xG 1.30–1.41 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet8632410.340.04
Mayo6471010.240.01
Olusanya5501000.110.05
Guinness-Walker8675000.010.11

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabia6460000.100.15
Ramsay6475000.140.11
Mochrie7474000.070.11
John7630100.070.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.