Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen 0–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 6 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 14,824

Kilmarnock Tshibola sent off 82'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals00
xG1.081.11
Expected Points1.321.35

Aberdeen 33%Draw 33%Kilmarnock 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 0–0, 9%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%11%6%2%12%9%3%6%9%5%1%2%2%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTTshibola (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 82'Olusanya on for Nisbet, Mouloua on for Ntelo, and Knoester on for Yogane, 46'Marshall on for Smith, 62'Molloy on for Guinness-Walker, 74'McKenzie on for Daniëls, 62'John-Jules on for Ring, 76'O'Hara on for Kiltie, 84'Kilmarnock 1.11Aberdeen 1.0800.511.50153045607590HTTshibola (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 82'Olusanya on for Nisbet, Mouloua on for Ntelo, and Knoester on for Yogane, 46'Marshall on for Smith, 62'Molloy on for Guinness-Walker, 74'McKenzie on for Daniëls, 62'John-Jules on for Ring, 76'O'Hara on for Kiltie, 84'1.111.08AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.08 −0.02xG1.11 +0.25
0.97 +0.24xG on target0.58 −0.35
11 +1.5Shots11 +0.8
3 +0.8Shots on target4 0.0
1 −0.5Big chances1 −0.8
24 +4Touches in the opposition box19 −2
55% +10Possession45% 0
468 +111Passes381 −45
84% +8Pass accuracy78% −2
48% +6Field tilt52% +10
40 +6Final-third entries45 +4
14 +4.2Box entries13 +3.2
8.4 −6Passes per defensive action15.1 −2
6 +1.2Corners7 +2.5
16 0Tackles19 +3
13 +6.0Interceptions8 −1.0
27 −6Clearances36 +14
4 −1.0Saves3 −1.2
13 0Fouls13 +1
0 −2.8Offsides0 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Olusanya 85', 0.42 xGCadden 46', 0.22 xGArmstrong 64', 0.10 xGCadden 79', 0.10 xGSmith 28', 0.06 xGMouloua 52', 0.06 xGMayo 45', 0.04 xGArmstrong 84', 0.03 xGYogane 40', 0.02 xGGuinness-Walker 57', 0.02 xGSmith 50', 0.01 xG59%0.64 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.64 xG, 0 goals19%0.20 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals12%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

McCarthy 41', 0.30 xGLowery 24', 0.23 xGKiltie 70', 0.23 xGRing 4', 0.06 xGKiltie 13', 0.05 xGKiltie 42', 0.05 xGTshibola 76', 0.05 xGLowery 77', 0.05 xGBrandon 24', 0.03 xGRing 64', 0.03 xGMcCarthy 65', 0.02 xG21%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals56%0.62 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals12%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals11%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

0.95 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.63 6 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
0.13 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.42 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
90 min (100%) · Aberdeen 1.08, Kilmarnock 1.11 xG

Line-ups

272823262432111773115MüllerCaddenMayoHappeGuinness-WalkerAremuSmithArmstrongYoganeNteloNisbetYellow cardYellow cardYellow card74'62'46'46'46'Aberdeen 4-1-3-2Stephen Robinson12414213611188299StryjekBrandonMcCarthyStangerSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaKiltieLoweryRingDaniëlsHugillYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow card84'76'62'Kilmarnock 4-1-3-2Neil McCann

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Knoester for Yogane · yellow card 62'
  • 46' Mouloua for Ntelo · yellow card 52'
  • 46' Olusanya for Nisbet
  • 62' Marshall for Smith
  • 74' Molloy for Guinness-Walker

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 62' McKenzie for Daniëls
  • 76' John-Jules for Ring
  • 84' O'Hara for Kiltie

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MüllerGK900.000.0100.0520
Cadden RB900.330.0100.0346
Mayo CB900.040.0100.0537
HappeCB900.000.0100.03110
Guinness-WalkerLB740.020.3210.3948
AremuDM900.000.0310.0556
SmithCM620.070.0310.0413
Armstrong AM900.130.1710.19124
YoganeCM460.020.0000.0225
NteloST460.000.0110.0001
NisbetST460.000.0300.0112
Knoester DF440.000.0700.1484
Mouloua FW440.060.001−0.0101
OlusanyaFW440.420.011−0.0301
MarshallMF280.000.3220.1910
MolloyDF160.000.0100.0010

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0231
BrandonRB900.030.1010.2044
McCarthyCB900.330.0000.03612
StangerCB900.000.0100.02414
Schjønning-LarsenLB900.000.0310.0738
Tshibola DM820.050.0300.0894
KiltieCM840.330.0410.0851
Lowery AM900.280.1200.1468
RingCM760.090.6540.65112
DaniëlsST620.000.010−0.0125
HugillST900.000.0410.0102
McKenzieMF280.000.0110.0211
John-JulesFW140.000.0000.0003
O'HaraMF60.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Smith and Nisbet: 4 passesMüller and Armstrong: 5 passesCadden and Aremu: 5 passesMayo and Aremu: 5 passesGuinness-Walker and Aremu: 5 passesYogane and Armstrong: 5 passesCadden and Ntelo: 6 passesMayo and Armstrong: 7 passesGuinness-Walker and Yogane: 7 passesCadden and Smith: 8 passesMüller and Happe: 9 passesHappe and Aremu: 9 passesCadden and Armstrong: 10 passesMüller and Mayo: 12 passesHappe and Armstrong: 12 passesGuinness-Walker and Armstrong: 13 passesArmstrong and Smith: 13 passesHappe and Mayo: 14 passesAremu and Armstrong: 14 passesCadden and Mayo: 15 passesHappe and Guinness-Walker: 16 passesMüller: 18 completed passesCadden: 25 completed passesHappe: 32 completed passesMayo: 27 completed passesGuinness-Walker: 23 completed passesAremu: 24 completed passesYogane: 6 completed passesArmstrong: 45 completed passesSmith: 12 completed passesNisbet: 4 completed passesNtelo: 7 completed passes272826232432717111531MüllerCaddenHappeMayoGuinness-WalkerAremuYoganeArmstrongSmithNisbetNteloStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

McCarthy and Ring: 4 passesStanger and Lowery: 4 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Ring: 4 passesStanger and Tshibola: 5 passesRing and Lowery: 5 passesRing and Kiltie: 5 passesBrandon and Tshibola: 6 passesBrandon and Lowery: 6 passesBrandon and Kiltie: 6 passesStanger and Schjønning-Larsen: 6 passesKiltie and Daniëls: 6 passesBrandon and McCarthy: 7 passesBrandon and Daniëls: 7 passesLowery and Kiltie: 7 passesKiltie and Hugill: 7 passesMcCarthy and Lowery: 8 passesStryjek and Stanger: 9 passesMcCarthy and Tshibola: 9 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Tshibola: 9 passesTshibola and Daniëls: 9 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lowery: 11 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 14 passesStryjek and McCarthy: 15 passesTshibola and Lowery: 23 passesStryjek: 19 completed passesBrandon: 23 completed passesMcCarthy: 24 completed passesStanger: 16 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 19 completed passesTshibola: 41 completed passesRing: 10 completed passesLowery: 33 completed passesKiltie: 20 completed passesDaniëls: 12 completed passesHugill: 8 completed passes12414213681811299StryjekBrandonMcCarthyStangerSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaRingLoweryKiltieDaniëlsHugillStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
MayoCadden15
HappeGuinness-Walker13
MayoHappe12
AremuArmstrong11
HappeArmstrong11

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
TshibolaLowery14
LoweryTshibola13
StryjekMcCarthy11
TshibolaKiltie10
McCarthyStryjek9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

7−3.516−1.27−2.58+3.88+3.811+4.07+2.29+5.08+2.55−2.52−2.82−1.24+0.86+0.56+0.59+6.230.07+5.55+1.53+0.20−1.21−0.20−1.00−1.82+1.210.03+2.50−0.510.01−5.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Kilmarnock

1−5.26−3.819+6.514+10.24+0.85−3.05−3.06+0.59+3.011+7.87+4.21−4.23−1.52−1.07+3.24−1.08+3.23+1.02−2.56+3.23+0.82+0.820.00−1.54+1.80−1.20−0.20−1.20−0.52+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.020.010.050.040.010.070.010.020.070.100.010.070.030.020.020.150.020.34LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.020.010.010.020.020.010.020.050.010.050.090.020.060.020.030.050.13−0.010.010.200.240.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackAberdeen1.11 → 1.10Kilmarnock1.17 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.52 → 1.50Kilmarnock1.66 → 1.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six16%14%−2
11th15%16%+1
Bottom12%13%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six4%4%0
11th22%22%0
Bottom30%29%−1

From the forecast before the match (5 September 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.581.18
Win46%28%
Expected Points1.641.10
Clean sheet31%21%

Aberdeen 46%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%3%8%6%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%9%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 September 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Aberdeen
Top six16%21%14%11%
11th15%11%16%18%
Bottom12%8%13%18%
Kilmarnock
Top six4%3%4%6%
11th22%23%22%20%
Bottom30%36%29%21%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  2. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10
  3. L0–28 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.72–1.83
  4. W2–11 AugHearts (H)xG 2.66–1.83
  5. L2–317 MayDundee FC (A)xG 1.12–1.99
  6. L0–212 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 0.53–1.50

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  2. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42
  3. L1–59 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.98–5.50
  4. L3–42 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.92–2.03
  5. W4–117 MayLivingston (A)xG 2.77–1.33
  6. W3–112 MayDundee FC (H)xG 3.48–0.43

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position10th12th
Played44
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠0–⁠30–⁠0–⁠4
Points3 (0.75 per game)0 (0.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.770.43
Goals2–⁠74–⁠14
xG per game1.10–⁠2.110.86–⁠2.95
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.51–⁠1.970.00, 0.84–⁠3.26
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 0.70–⁠2.250.00, 0.92–⁠2.03
ManagerStephen Robinson (13)Neil McCann (20)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackAberdeen1.11, 11thKilmarnock1.17, 7thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.52, 8thKilmarnock1.66, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepAberdeen attack: 1.11Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.11KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepAberdeen defence: 1.52Kilmarnock defence: 1.661.661.52

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−54%+9%−20%+54%
Counter-attacks−62%+85%−54%+131%
Set pieces+54%+28%−31%+55%
Penalties+7%+7%−88%+49%
Headers+68%−18%−30%+149%
Left side−45%+28%−34%+52%
Centre−22%−6%−23%+110%
Right side−26%+69%−31%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−45%+13%Centre−22%+110%Right side−26%+52%Open play−54%+54%Counter-attacks−62%+131%Set pieces+54%+55%Headers+68%+149%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−34%+69%Centre−23%−6%Right side−31%+28%Open play−20%+9%Counter-attacks−54%+85%Set pieces−31%+28%Headers−30%−18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.10xG0.86
2.11xG against2.95
45%Possession45%
9.5Shots10.2
21.5Shots against19.8
2.2Shots on target4.0
1.5Big chances1.8
20.2Touches in the opposition box21.0
357Passes426
76%Pass accuracy80%
4.8Corners4.5
42%Field tilt41%
33.8Final-third entries41.3
9.8Box entries9.8
14.5Passes per defensive action17.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.142.09
Ahead0––
Behind581.082.12

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level150.524.03
Ahead40.391.63
Behind710.962.80

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.130–2
16–300.120.350–0
31–450.130.660–3
46–600.040.220–1
61–750.170.330–1
76–900.580.412–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.480–3
16–300.040.560–1
31–450.160.581–4
46–600.250.473–2
61–750.030.440–2
76–900.120.410–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMüller 4Cadden 3Lyons 1Mayo 3Guinness-Wal… 1Guinness-WalkerHappe 3Molloy 1Guinness-Wal… 3Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Armstrong 2Ronan 2Aremu 3Briedl 1Mayo 1Knoester 1Olusanya 1Olusanya 2Briedl 1Aremu 1Yogane 2Nisbet 1Mouloua 1Nisbet 3Yogane 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 4 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTStryjek 4McCarthy 2Kiltie 1Clescenco 1Stanger 3Schilte-Brown 1Yfeko 2Deas 1Ring 2Meier 1Brandon 1O'Hara 2Ring 1Tshibola 1Lowery 4Schjønning-L… 4Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 3John-Jules 1Hugill 4John-Jules 3Clescenco 13-4-1-2 in 1 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 April 2026Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 0.50–0.71
31 January 2026Kilmarnock3–0AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
14 December 2025Aberdeen2–1KilmarnockxG 3.76–1.02
29 October 2025Kilmarnock0–1AberdeenxG 1.36–0.55
22 February 2025Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–0.43
26 December 2024Kilmarnock4–0AberdeenxG 4.02–0.50

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 10, Kilmarnock won 6, and 0 were drawn. Goals 18–16 and xG 1.24–1.26 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet302,5591110.360.08
Armstrong262,322250.130.18
Olusanya141,352220.210.05
Aremu13892110.020.07

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hugill161,451920.420.09
John-Jules161,381820.390.07
Kiltie322,685570.160.21
Tshibola121,079000.130.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.