Forecasts

Updated 17:06, 12 Oct, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Team	Pts	Projected	Range	Title	Top six	11th	Bottom
Celtic	21	86	76–95	73%	>99%	–	–
Rangers	19	79	69–88	26%	>99%	–	–
Hearts	16	62	52–71	1%	97%	<1%	<1%
Motherwell	8	49	40–57	<1%	52%	5%	3%
Hibernian	7	49	40–58	<1%	52%	5%	3%
Dundee United	11	47	39–56	<1%	44%	6%	4%
Dundee FC	13	46	37–54	–	41%	9%	7%
St. Mirren	10	45	35–53	–	32%	12%	10%
St. Johnstone	11	43	33–52	–	26%	14%	16%
Falkirk	6	42	33–51	–	22%	14%	15%
Aberdeen	8	42	33–51	–	23%	16%	15%
Kilmarnock	5	39	30–48	–	10%	19%	28%

Projected is the average final points total, and range where it ended up in 80% of simulations. The top six stay in the top half after the split. 11th goes into the play-off; bottom goes down.

Position probabilities

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Celtic	73%	25%	1%	<1%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Rangers	26%	67%	6%	<1%	<1%	–	<1%	–	–	–	–	–
Hearts	1%	7%	64%	16%	6%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Motherwell	<1%	<1%	7%	17%	16%	12%	14%	11%	9%	6%	5%	3%
Hibernian	<1%	<1%	7%	18%	15%	12%	14%	11%	8%	7%	5%	3%
Dundee United	<1%	<1%	4%	13%	14%	13%	14%	12%	11%	9%	6%	4%
Dundee FC	–	<1%	3%	10%	13%	15%	10%	11%	12%	10%	9%	7%
St. Mirren	–	–	3%	8%	10%	12%	11%	12%	12%	12%	12%	10%
St. Johnstone	–	<1%	2%	6%	8%	10%	8%	10%	12%	13%	14%	16%
Falkirk	–	<1%	1%	5%	7%	8%	11%	13%	12%	14%	14%	15%
Aberdeen	–	–	1%	5%	8%	9%	9%	11%	13%	14%	16%	15%
Kilmarnock	–	–	<1%	2%	3%	4%	7%	9%	12%	15%	19%	28%

Chance of the title

Chance of finishing bottom

As the forecast stood at the end of each matchday this season.

Next matches

Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

AberdeenSt. Mirren

43%Draw 28%29%

Expected goals 1.4–1.1
Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

HibernianFalkirk

51%Draw 26%23%

Expected goals 1.6–1.0
Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

KilmarnockMotherwell

35%Draw 27%38%

Expected goals 1.3–1.4
Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

St. JohnstoneDundee United

37%Draw 28%36%

Expected goals 1.3–1.3
Sat 17 Oct, 20:00

Dundee FCRangers

17%Draw 22%61%

Expected goals 0.9–2.0
Sun 18 Oct, 15:00

CelticHearts

63%Draw 22%15%

Expected goals 2.0–0.9

Each team has two ratings, from the quality of chances it has created and allowed and from its Expected Points, starting from the value of its squad at the start of the season and leaning on recent matches more than older ones. The rest of the season is played out 10,000 times, with the split after round 33 decided by each simulated table.