Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 0–1 Aberdeen

Saturday 18 October 2025, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 8 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Lloyd Wilson · Attendance 7,333

St. Mirren Richardson sent off 81'

Aberdeen Lazetic 90+6'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenAberdeen
Goals01
xG0.482.05
Expected Points0.332.51

St. Mirren 5%Draw 17%Aberdeen 78%

Most likely score 0–2, 20%. Final score 0–1, 16%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%13%5%1%2%9%10%7%3%2%3%1%16%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTRichardson (St. Mirren), red card 81'Idowu on for O'Hara, 67'Ayunga on for Nlundulu, 68'McMenamin on for Mandron, 88'Tanser on for John, 90+1'Lazetic on for Nisbet, 63'Polvara on for Aouchiche, 69'Keskinen on for Karlsson and Palaversa on for Shinnie, 70'Dorrington on for Molloy, 77'Lazetic 90+6'Aberdeen 2.05St. Mirren 0.4801230153045607590HTRichardson (St. Mirren), red card 81'Idowu on for O'Hara, 67'Ayunga on for Nlundulu, 68'McMenamin on for Mandron, 88'Tanser on for John, 90+1'Lazetic on for Nisbet, 63'Polvara on for Aouchiche, 69'Keskinen on for Karlsson and Palaversa on for Shinnie, 70'Dorrington on for Molloy, 77'Lazetic 90+6'2.050.48St. MirrenAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenAberdeen

0.48 −0.40xG2.05 +0.73
0.03 −0.89xG on target1.12 +0.27
10 +0.6Shots16 +3.0
1 −2.3Shots on target4 +0.6
0 −1.6Big chances3 +1.3
25 +5Touches in the opposition box31 +9
49% +8Possession51% +4
429 +108Passes459 +57
77% +5Pass accuracy85% +8
47% +2Field tilt53% +8
46 +13Final-third entries42 +10
11 0Box entries15 +4
18.8 0Passes per defensive action14.8 −2
6 +0.7Corners2 −2.7
8 −5Tackles9 −6
11 +3.6Interceptions9 +2.6
22 −10Clearances52 +27
3 −0.4Saves1 −1.7
11 −2Fouls13 −2
5 +3.1Offsides0 −2.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Baccus 2', 0.11 xGJohn 53', 0.09 xGFreckleton 85', 0.06 xGFraser 65', 0.05 xGFreckleton 66', 0.05 xGPhillips 39', 0.04 xGFraser 78', 0.04 xGMandron 16', 0.02 xGMandron 36', 0.02 xGAyunga 89', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals48%0.23 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals44%0.21 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals8%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Armstrong 67', 0.64 xGJensen 67', 0.34 xGDorrington 90+2', 0.30 xGPolvara 87', 0.10 xGAouchiche 4', 0.09 xGKarlsson 55', 0.08 xGLazetic 67', 0.07 xGAouchiche 11', 0.06 xGKnoester 90', 0.06 xGPalaversa 90', 0.05 xGDevlin 90+2', 0.05 xGPolvara 71', 0.04 xGPalaversa 73', 0.04 xGDevlin 26', 0.02 xGNisbet 35', 0.02 xGLazetic 90+6', 0.10 xG, goal15%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.30 xG, 0 goals60%1.24 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.24 xG, 0 goals13%0.27 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.27 xG, 1 goal12%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenAberdeen

0.23 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.56 10 shots, 1 goal
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks1.15 4 shots, 0 goals
0.23 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.34 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
96 min (99%) · St. Mirren 0.48, Aberdeen 2.05 xG
Aberdeen ahead
1 min (1%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Aberdeen 0.00 xG

Line-ups

122132128825624149GeorgeFraserGogicFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsBaccusO'HaraJohnNlunduluMandronYellow cardYellow cardSent off67'90+1'68'88'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson12225281642171517MitovDevlinMilneKnoesterJensenArmstrongShinnieMolloyAouchicheNisbetKarlssonYellow cardYellow card70'77'69'63'70'Aberdeen 3-4-3Jimmy Thelin

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 67' Idowu for O'Hara
  • 68' Ayunga for Nlundulu
  • 88' McMenamin for Mandron
  • 90+1' Tanser for John

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 63' Lazetic for Nisbet · goal 90+6', yellow card 90+7'
  • 69' Polvara for Aouchiche
  • 70' Palaversa for Shinnie · yellow card 81', 1 assist
  • 70' Keskinen for Karlsson
  • 77' Dorrington for Molloy

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
George GK900.000.0100.0780
FraserCB900.080.0710.1437
GogicCB900.000.0000.0219
Freckleton CB900.110.0300.08711
Richardson RWB810.000.0500.0763
PhillipsCM900.040.0100.0462
BaccusCM900.110.1010.0441
O'HaraCM670.000.3210.4861
JohnLWB900.090.0100.0132
NlunduluST680.000.010−0.0211
MandronST880.040.1310.1313
IdowuMF230.000.011−0.0211
AyungaFW220.020.011−0.0110
McMenaminMF20.000.0000.0001
TanserMF00.000.0000.0122

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0121
DevlinCB900.070.0100.03313
MilneCB900.000.0000.02016
KnoesterCB900.060.0500.14913
Jensen RWB900.340.1840.2097
Armstrong CM900.640.1740.2394
ShinnieCM700.000.0100.0523
MolloyLWB770.000.0100.0116
AouchicheRW690.150.2010.1041
NisbetST630.020.0000.0012
KarlssonLW700.080.0720.0454
Lazetic FW2710.170.0000.0101
PolvaraMF210.140.0400.0111
Palaversa MF2010.090.1720.0761
KeskinenFW200.000.1510.0810
DorringtonDF130.300.0000.0102

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gogic and Phillips: 4 passesGogic and O'Hara: 4 passesPhillips and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Hara and Nlundulu: 4 passesGeorge and Gogic: 5 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 5 passesJohn and Baccus: 5 passesJohn and Nlundulu: 5 passesPhillips and Mandron: 5 passesRichardson and Phillips: 6 passesBaccus and Phillips: 6 passesFraser and Richardson: 7 passesO'Hara and Mandron: 7 passesFreckleton and Fraser: 8 passesFreckleton and Baccus: 8 passesFraser and Baccus: 9 passesFraser and Phillips: 9 passesGogic and Baccus: 10 passesFreckleton and O'Hara: 10 passesFreckleton and John: 11 passesJohn and O'Hara: 11 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 11 passesGogic and Fraser: 20 passesGogic and Freckleton: 36 passesGeorge: 11 completed passesGogic: 40 completed passesFreckleton: 41 completed passesFraser: 31 completed passesRichardson: 10 completed passesJohn: 18 completed passesBaccus: 30 completed passesPhillips: 21 completed passesO'Hara: 29 completed passesMandron: 12 completed passesNlundulu: 11 completed passes113212222425886914GeorgeGogicFreckletonFraserRichardsonJohnBaccusPhillipsO'HaraMandronNlunduluStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Mitov and Devlin: 7 passesMilne and Armstrong: 7 passesJensen and Aouchiche: 7 passesArmstrong and Shinnie: 7 passesShinnie and Karlsson: 7 passesAouchiche and Karlsson: 7 passesKnoester and Armstrong: 8 passesKnoester and Shinnie: 8 passesKnoester and Karlsson: 8 passesMolloy and Karlsson: 8 passesArmstrong and Aouchiche: 8 passesKnoester and Molloy: 9 passesMilne and Shinnie: 9 passesDevlin and Aouchiche: 9 passesArmstrong and Karlsson: 9 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 10 passesDevlin and Armstrong: 11 passesDevlin and Jensen: 14 passesMitov and Knoester: 16 passesMitov and Milne: 16 passesJensen and Armstrong: 17 passesMilne and Devlin: 21 passesKnoester and Milne: 26 passesMitov: 28 completed passesKnoester: 44 completed passesMilne: 43 completed passesDevlin: 41 completed passesJensen: 28 completed passesMolloy: 15 completed passesArmstrong: 39 completed passesShinnie: 27 completed passesAouchiche: 15 completed passesNisbet: 8 completed passesKarlsson: 23 completed passes15222282116471517MitovKnoesterMilneDevlinJensenMolloyArmstrongShinnieAouchicheNisbetKarlssonStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GogicFreckleton22
FreckletonGogic19
GogicFraser13
JohnFreckleton11
FraserGogic10

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
MilneKnoester17
MitovKnoester13
JensenArmstrong13
DevlinMilne12
KnoesterMilne12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

1−3.66−1.36−1.64−0.47−1.66+1.66−1.43−2.911+6.03−1.35+2.63−0.34−0.39+5.61−1.73−0.43+1.62−0.62−1.60−2.11−0.72+0.41−2.010.00−0.62+1.100.00−0.314−4.92−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Aberdeen

8+2.460.023+12.912+3.74−0.95−2.98+1.97+3.312+2.33−3.46−0.35+1.611+7.62−3.19+0.12−1.33−0.630.04+0.76+0.60−2.62+0.91+0.42+0.70−2.40−0.30−0.30−0.91+0.60−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.010.010.010.040.020.010.010.020.040.020.020.050.020.010.090.060.12−0.020.02−0.03−0.05−0.020.200.200.17LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.010.020.030.050.060.060.030.070.080.020.08−0.010.010.050.080.120.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.17 → 1.14Aberdeen1.24 → 1.27Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.39 → 1.42Aberdeen1.39 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six42%31%−11
11th4%6%+2
Bottom2%3%+1
Aberdeen
Top six19%27%+8
11th10%7%−3
Bottom5%2%−3
Motherwell
Top six59%61%+2
Bottom1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (18 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenAberdeen
Expected goals1.411.14
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.561.17
Clean sheet32%24%

St. Mirren 43%Draw 28%Aberdeen 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawAberdeen win
St. Mirren
Top six42%51%40%31%
11th4%2%4%6%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Aberdeen
Top six19%13%20%27%
11th10%12%9%7%
Bottom5%7%4%2%
Motherwell
Top six59%58%59%61%
Bottom1%<1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–24 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.43–2.15
  2. W1–027 SepDundee FC (H)xG 0.74–0.62
  3. W2–113 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–0.70
  4. D1–131 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.85–2.42
  5. D1–124 AugRangers (H)xG 1.01–1.56
  6. D0–09 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.31–0.53

Aberdeen

  1. W4–05 OctDundee FC (H)xG 2.80–0.31
  2. L0–227 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.00–2.03
  3. L0–223 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.33–1.33
  4. D0–013 SepLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.56
  5. L0–131 AugFalkirk (H)xG 0.96–1.26
  6. L0–210 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.55–1.17

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenAberdeen
Position5th12th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠21–⁠1–⁠5
Points9 (1.29 per game)4 (0.57 per game)
Expected Points per game1.051.47
Goals5–⁠64–⁠9
xG per game0.88–⁠1.341.32–⁠1.10
Home: points, xG per game1.67, 1.02–⁠0.901.00, 1.38–⁠0.82
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.77–⁠1.670.00, 1.24–⁠1.46
ManagerStephen Robinson (78)Jimmy Thelin (45)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.17, 9thAberdeen1.24, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.39, 6thAberdeen1.39, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.17Aberdeen attack: 1.241.241.17AberdeenSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.39Aberdeen defence: 1.391.391.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−34%+16%+1%−12%
Counter-attacks−48%+44%+34%−77%
Set pieces−5%−6%−11%−6%
Penalties−100%−100%−23%−23%
Headers−27%+1%−26%−1%
Left side−37%+7%+16%−19%
Centre−21%+28%+4%−18%
Right side−31%−24%−21%−16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−37%−16%Centre−21%−18%Right side−31%−19%Open play−34%−12%Counter-attacks−48%−77%Set pieces−5%−6%Headers−27%−1%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+16%−24%Centre+4%+28%Right side−21%+7%Open play+1%+16%Counter-attacks+34%+44%Set pieces−11%−6%Headers−26%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenAberdeen

0.88xG1.32
1.34xG against1.10
41%Possession47%
9.4Shots13.0
11.6Shots against12.1
3.3Shots on target3.4
1.6Big chances1.7
20.3Touches in the opposition box22.0
321Passes402
72%Pass accuracy77%
5.3Corners4.7
45%Field tilt45%
33.3Final-third entries32.4
10.6Box entries10.6
18.8Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level620.981.05
Ahead190.832.02
Behind90.281.91

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.210.99
Ahead102.170.36
Behind291.251.54

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.160–0
16–300.160.260–1
31–450.170.272–1
46–600.060.110–0
61–750.170.282–1
76–900.250.271–3

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.080–1
16–300.240.182–1
31–450.350.131–1
46–600.170.200–1
61–750.120.271–3
76–900.280.230–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 7Fraser 5King 3Gogic 7Freckleton 6Richardson 7Phillips 7Baccus 4Donnelly 2Taylor 1O'Hara 5Idowu 2John 7Ayunga 5Idowu 2Mandron 73-5-2 in 4 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 5-3-2 (3)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 7Jensen 6Devlin 1Milne 5Dorrington 2Devlin 1Knoester 6Gyamfi 4Shinnie 2Devlin 1Nilsen 4Armstrong 2Clarkson 2Shinnie 3Palaversa 2Milanovic 4Devlin 1Tobers 1Aouchiche 5Polvara 2Karlsson 4Keskinen 3Nisbet 4Yengi 34-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-2-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 May 2025St. Mirren1–0AberdeenxG 1.22–0.47
25 January 2025Aberdeen0–3St. MirrenxG 1.41–1.78
23 November 2024St. Mirren2–1AberdeenxG 1.56–1.38
11 August 2024Aberdeen3–1St. MirrenxG 1.60–1.30
2 March 2024St. Mirren2–1AberdeenxG 2.01–0.98
30 December 2023Aberdeen0–3St. MirrenxG 1.03–2.73

18 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 9, Aberdeen won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 28–25 and xG 1.46–1.31 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron7552120.230.12
John7620120.020.21
Phillips7562100.110.06
Gogic7630000.130.01

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Aouchiche5464100.230.04
Jensen6569000.030.06
Milne5494000.040.05
Knoester6496000.030.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.