Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock 0–1 St. Mirren

Wednesday 2 September 2026, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 5 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 5,024

St. Mirren Taylor 4'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals01
xG0.410.85
Expected Points0.861.73

Kilmarnock 15%Draw 41%St. Mirren 44%

Most likely score 0–0, 27%. Final score 0–1, 26%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+10%2%11%13%4%2%2%27%26%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTDaniëls on for John-Jules, Tshibola on for Ring, and Brandon on for Yfeko, 46'McKenzie on for O'Hara, 66'Rice on for Lowery, 78'Young on for Agrafiotis, 61'Thomas on for Mochrie, 66'Richardson on for Taylor and Sule on for Kabia, 74'Taylor 4'St. Mirren 0.85Kilmarnock 0.4100.250.50.7510153045607590HTDaniëls on for John-Jules, Tshibola on for Ring, and Brandon on for Yfeko, 46'McKenzie on for O'Hara, 66'Rice on for Lowery, 78'Young on for Agrafiotis, 61'Thomas on for Mochrie, 66'Richardson on for Taylor and Sule on for Kabia, 74'Taylor 4'0.850.41KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.41 −0.60xG0.85 −1.17
0.19 −0.99xG on target0.65 −1.70
8 −3Shots10 −7
2 −2.7Shots on target1 −5.0
1 −1.0Big chances1 −2.3
17 −5Touches in the opposition box29 −3
47% +3Possession53% +7
456 +40Passes524 +123
81% +1Pass accuracy86% +6
34% −9Field tilt66% +16
45 +5Final-third entries39 −4
7 −4Box entries15 −2
14.0 −5Passes per defensive action18.2 +5
7 +3.3Corners3 −3.3
26 +13Tackles20 −1
7 −2.7Interceptions12 +3.3
18 −5Clearances28 −4
0 −5.7Saves2 −0.3
12 0Fouls13 −1
2 +1.7Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Tshibola 90', 0.11 xGHugill 80', 0.08 xGJohn-Jules 24', 0.07 xGMcKenzie 73', 0.06 xGHugill 47', 0.04 xGDaniëls 66', 0.02 xGSchjønning-Larsen 58', 0.01 xGMcCarthy 81', 0.01 xG27%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals35%0.14 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals20%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals18%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Agrafiotis 60', 0.34 xGJohn 32', 0.11 xGMochrie 32', 0.09 xGRamsay 13', 0.08 xGKabia 22', 0.06 xGNsio 45', 0.03 xGSule 85', 0.02 xGAgrafiotis 37', 0.01 xGCarr 51', 0.01 xGTaylor 4', 0.10 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%0.63 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.63 xG, 1 goal21%0.18 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.17 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.73 8 shots, 1 goal
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.21 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, St. Mirren 0.10 xG
St. Mirren ahead
86 min (96%) · Kilmarnock 0.41, St. Mirren 0.75 xG

Line-ups

14141585182111109StryjekMcCarthyStangerYfekoRingO'HaraLowerySchjønning-LarsenKiltieJohn-JulesHugillYellow card46'46'66'78'46'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Neil McCann1471353348823301925ChapmanRamsayGogićFieldsonJohnNsioCarrMochrieTaylorKabiaAgrafiotisGoalYellow card66'74'74'61'St. Mirren 4-2-3-1Craig McLeish

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Brandon for Yfeko
  • 46' Tshibola for Ring
  • 46' Daniëls for John-Jules
  • 66' McKenzie for O'Hara
  • 78' Rice for Lowery · yellow card 82'

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 61' Young for Agrafiotis
  • 66' Thomas for Mochrie
  • 74' Richardson for Taylor · yellow card 82'
  • 74' Sule for Kabia

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0100
McCarthyCB900.010.0700.1868
StangerCB900.000.0100.12913
YfekoCB460.000.0100.0853
RingRWB460.000.0100.0123
O'HaraCM660.000.010−0.0115
LoweryCM780.000.021−0.0205
Schjønning-LarsenLWB900.010.1320.28102
Kiltie AM900.000.1910.0021
John-JulesST460.070.0300.2323
HugillST900.110.0000.0102
BrandonDF440.000.010−0.0114
TshibolaMF440.110.0210.0511
DaniëlsFW440.020.0000.0112
McKenzieMF240.060.0000.0022
Rice MF120.000.0000.0001

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ChapmanGK900.000.0000.0571
RamsayRB900.080.0100.0669
GogićCB900.000.0000.0635
FieldsonCB900.000.0100.06511
JohnLB900.110.0910.0755
NsioDM900.030.0510.07310
CarrDM900.010.0200.1067
MochrieRW660.090.0200.0331
TaylorAM7410.100.2310.2064
KabiaLW740.060.1220.25100
Agrafiotis ST6110.350.152−0.1200
YoungFW290.000.0100.0220
ThomasFW240.000.0010.0005
Richardson MF160.000.0000.0003
SuleFW160.020.0000.0222

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Stryjek and Stanger: 3 passesStanger and O'Hara: 3 passesRing and John-Jules: 3 passesMcCarthy and Yfeko: 4 passesMcCarthy and Ring: 4 passesMcCarthy and O'Hara: 4 passesStanger and Lowery: 4 passesYfeko and Kiltie: 4 passesRing and Kiltie: 4 passesLowery and O'Hara: 4 passesKiltie and John-Jules: 4 passesLowery and Kiltie: 5 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Kiltie: 6 passesSchjønning-Larsen and John-Jules: 6 passesStryjek and McCarthy: 8 passesStryjek and Yfeko: 8 passesMcCarthy and Lowery: 8 passesLowery and Schjønning-Larsen: 8 passesYfeko and Lowery: 10 passesYfeko and Schjønning-Larsen: 13 passesStanger and Yfeko: 19 passesMcCarthy and Stanger: 24 passesStryjek: 15 completed passesMcCarthy: 23 completed passesStanger: 29 completed passesYfeko: 29 completed passesRing: 9 completed passesLowery: 23 completed passesO'Hara: 8 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 18 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passesHugill: 4 completed passesJohn-Jules: 6 completed passes14141581852111910StryjekMcCarthyStangerYfekoRingLoweryO'HaraSchjønning-LarsenKiltieHugillJohn-JulesStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Gogić and Mochrie: 7 passesFieldson and Taylor: 7 passesMochrie and Taylor: 7 passesCarr and Mochrie: 9 passesTaylor and Kabia: 9 passesChapman and John: 10 passesRamsay and Carr: 10 passesNsio and Taylor: 10 passesJohn and Carr: 11 passesNsio and Carr: 12 passesChapman and Gogić: 14 passesChapman and Fieldson: 14 passesFieldson and Carr: 14 passesRamsay and Taylor: 15 passesJohn and Taylor: 17 passesGogić and Taylor: 18 passesJohn and Kabia: 18 passesRamsay and Gogić: 19 passesFieldson and John: 21 passesGogić and Carr: 23 passesCarr and Taylor: 26 passesChapman: 31 completed passesRamsay: 36 completed passesGogić: 49 completed passesFieldson: 40 completed passesJohn: 50 completed passesNsio: 27 completed passesCarr: 59 completed passesMochrie: 20 completed passesTaylor: 56 completed passesKabia: 20 completed passesAgrafiotis: 12 completed passes1471353348823301925ChapmanRamsayGogićFieldsonJohnNsioCarrMochrieTaylorKabiaAgrafiotisStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
StangerMcCarthy23
McCarthyStanger15
StangerSchjønning-Larsen13
StangerYfeko12
StryjekMcCarthy12

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
CarrTaylor18
JohnFieldson17
FieldsonChapman15
FieldsonCarr15
RamsayGogić13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

9+3.715+7.010−3.34+0.32−1.780.04−5.33−3.34−2.71−3.05+3.05−0.311+8.72−1.31−3.76+1.36+1.76+5.35+0.73+0.33+1.03+2.31−1.32+0.72−0.32+1.00−0.30−1.71+0.72+2.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

St. Mirren

7+2.39−1.013−1.38+1.050.013+5.08−2.06−1.08−0.312+2.74−1.76+3.76+3.07+3.39+3.01−3.32−0.73−0.350.01−2.01−0.70−2.30−3.00−3.30−0.30−0.30−1.710.00−1.30−5.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.050.010.010.020.020.010.020.020.050.050.040.080.030.020.07−0.030.08−0.02−0.010.010.200.16LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.020.030.030.020.060.030.010.010.030.040.040.020.020.010.080.030.03−0.010.060.040.02−0.02−0.100.090.040.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.20 → 1.17St. Mirren1.15 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.65 → 1.65St. Mirren1.37 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six8%4%−4
11th21%22%+1
Bottom25%31%+6
St. Mirren
Top six49%60%+11
11th5%4%−1
Bottom2%1%−1
Falkirk
Top six22%20%−2
11th14%14%0
Bottom12%10%−2

From the forecast before the match (2 September 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.401.26
Win40%33%
Expected Points1.471.26
Clean sheet28%25%

Kilmarnock 40%Draw 27%St. Mirren 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%6%2%9%8%3%1%7%9%5%2%3%4%3%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 September 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
Top six8%11%6%4%
11th21%19%22%22%
Bottom25%19%26%31%
St. Mirren
Top six49%41%47%60%
11th5%7%5%4%
Bottom2%4%2%1%
Falkirk
Top six22%22%23%20%
11th14%13%13%14%
Bottom12%13%12%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42
  2. L1–59 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.98–5.50
  3. L3–42 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.92–2.03
  4. W4–117 MayLivingston (A)xG 2.77–1.33
  5. W3–112 MayDundee FC (H)xG 3.48–0.43
  6. W3–09 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.49–1.21

St. Mirren

  1. D3–330 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.92–2.45
  2. W1–08 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.58–1.17
  3. W2–01 AugFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–0.55
  4. D1–117 MayDundee United (H)xG 1.02–0.50
  5. W2–012 MayAberdeen (A)xG 1.50–0.53
  6. L0–39 MayKilmarnock (H)xG 1.21–1.49

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position12th2nd
Played33
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠0–⁠32–⁠1–⁠0
Points0 (0.00 per game)7 (2.33 per game)
Expected Points per game0.291.84
Goals4–⁠136–⁠3
xG per game1.01–⁠3.652.02–⁠1.39
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 1.05–⁠4.462.00, 2.25–⁠1.81
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 0.92–⁠2.033.00, 1.57–⁠0.55
ManagerNeil McCann (19)Craig McLeish (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.20, 7thSt. Mirren1.15, 9thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.65, 12thSt. Mirren1.37, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugKilmarnock attack: 1.20St. Mirren attack: 1.151.201.15St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugKilmarnock defence: 1.65St. Mirren defence: 1.371.651.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−6%+63%−14%−24%
Counter-attacks−35%+131%+34%−9%
Set pieces−29%+54%+3%−30%
Penalties−82%+62%−19%+54%
Headers−22%+152%−4%−36%
Left side−25%+63%+16%+2%
Centre−8%+99%−7%−40%
Right side−29%+31%−8%−25%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−25%−25%Centre−8%−40%Right side−29%+2%Open play−6%−24%Counter-attacks−35%−9%Set pieces−29%−30%Headers−22%−36%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+16%+31%Centre−7%+99%Right side−8%+63%Open play−14%+63%Counter-attacks+34%+131%Set pieces+3%+54%Headers−4%+152%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.01xG2.02
3.65xG against1.39
44%Possession46%
11.0Shots17.0
23.0Shots against13.7
4.7Shots on target6.0
2.0Big chances3.3
22.3Touches in the opposition box32.3
416Passes401
79%Pass accuracy80%
3.7Corners6.3
43%Field tilt49%
40.0Final-third entries42.7
10.7Box entries16.7
18.7Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level180.564.16
Ahead50.391.63
Behind661.183.67

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level292.211.68
Ahead472.000.86
Behind141.692.57

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.340.580–2
16–300.030.730–1
31–450.220.691–4
46–600.320.513–2
61–750.010.590–2
76–900.090.550–2

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.531–1
16–300.190.140–1
31–450.500.073–0
46–600.120.310–0
61–750.640.111–0
76–900.470.241–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 3Meier 1Ring 1Brandon 1Stanger 2Schilte-Brown 1McCarthy 1Deas 1Yfeko 1Schjønning-L… 3Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Clescenco 1O'Hara 1Tshibola 1Ring 1Lowery 3Clescenco 1Kiltie 1Tshibola 1Hugill 3John-Jules 34-4-2 in 1 of 3 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 3Ramsay 1Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogic 3Fraser 1Fieldson 2John 2Sule 1Carr 3Nsio 2Phillips 1Ramos 2Richardson 1Nsio 1Mochrie 1Phillips 1Ramos 1Mochrie 1Kabia 1Mochrie 1Agrafiotis 1Sule 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 3 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 May 2026St. Mirren0–3KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.49
11 February 2026Kilmarnock4–3St. MirrenxG 2.76–1.96
27 December 2025St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 1.36–0.75
4 October 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.15–0.43
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29
2 January 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.98–0.26

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 9, St. Mirren won 2, and 7 were drawn. Goals 29–19 and xG 1.36–0.92 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hugill151,361920.440.09
John-Jules151,335820.390.07
Kiltie312,595570.160.21
Tshibola121,035000.120.07

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John302,557250.040.23
Young5584200.240.03
Phillips393,358700.160.08
Idowu161,310010.070.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.