Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts 5–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 8 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,582

Hearts Mendy 20', Miller 32' (pen), 50' (pen), Braga 54', McPake 80'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals50
xG3.430.68
Non-penalty xG1.860.68
Expected Points2.870.08

Hearts 94%Draw 5%St. Mirren 1%

Most likely score 3–0, 15%. Final score 5–0, 6%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%2%8%7%2%4%3%6%5%2%2%2%15%13%13%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTKerjota on for Miller and McEntee on for Ageu, 56'Williams on for Wilson, 73'Guendouz on for Braga, 74'Findlay on for McPake, 82'Young on for Taylor, Thomas on for Mochrie, and Donnelly on for Carr, 46'Sule on for Kabia, 67'Fraser on for Ramsay, 82'Mendy 20'Miller 32' (pen)Miller 50' (pen)Braga 54'McPake 80'Hearts 3.43St. Mirren 0.68012340153045607590HTKerjota on for Miller and McEntee on for Ageu, 56'Williams on for Wilson, 73'Guendouz on for Braga, 74'Findlay on for McPake, 82'Young on for Taylor, Thomas on for Mochrie, and Donnelly on for Carr, 46'Sule on for Kabia, 67'Fraser on for Ramsay, 82'Mendy 20'Miller 32' (pen)Miller 50' (pen)Braga 54'McPake 80'3.430.68HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

3.43 +1.61xG0.68 −0.91
1.86Non-penalty xG0.68
3.50 +1.60xG on target0.63 −0.75
18 +1Shots8 −6
6 +0.7Shots on target1 −2.9
4 +1.4Big chances1 −1.4
35 +6Touches in the opposition box19 −8
49% −6Possession51% +3
418 −31Passes438 +2
78% −2Pass accuracy77% −3
57% −2Field tilt43% −5
43 +5Final-third entries37 −2
21 +5Box entries11 −4
11.6 0Passes per defensive action11.4 −3
6 −1.6Corners2 −2.6
21 +4Tackles12 −9
10 +2.4Interceptions8 −2.4
15 −13Clearances18 −12
1 −0.3Saves1 −2.7
16 +3Fouls18 +5
3 +1.6Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Miller 5', 0.11 xGWilson 57', 0.10 xGMilne 4', 0.09 xGMendy 45', 0.07 xGMcPake 34', 0.06 xGBraga 52', 0.06 xGMilne 15', 0.05 xGWilson 43', 0.05 xGMcPake 13', 0.02 xGMilne 34', 0.02 xGMcPake 39', 0.02 xGMcPake 43', 0.02 xGMcPake 44', 0.02 xGBraga 54', 0.65 xG, goalMcPake 80', 0.39 xG, goalMendy 20', 0.11 xG, goal35%0.65 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.65 xG, 1 goal28%0.53 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.53 xG, 1 goal29%0.55 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.55 xG, 1 goal5%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Ramsay 77', 0.30 xGThomas 55', 0.22 xGKabia 47', 0.04 xGJohn 74', 0.04 xGYoung 90+2', 0.03 xGPhillips 14', 0.02 xGPhillips 57', 0.02 xGSule 70', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.51 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.51 xG, 0 goals10%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals12%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.12 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.63 6 shots, 0 goals
0.53 4 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.02 1 shot, 0 goals
0.21 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 2 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
20 min (22%) · Hearts 0.39, St. Mirren 0.02 xG
Hearts ahead
72 min (78%) · Hearts 3.04, St. Mirren 0.66 xG

Line-ups

123645188787101521ReusAltenaFagan-WalcottMcCartMilneAgeuMendyMillerBragaMcPakeWilsonGoalGoalGoalYellow cardGoalGoal56'56'74'82'73'Hearts 4-2-3-1Wouter Vrancken1471353384823301988ChapmanRamsayGogićFieldsonJohnCarrNsioMochrieTaylorKabiaPhillipsYellow cardYellow cardYellow card82'46'46'46'67'St. Mirren 4-2-3-1Craig McLeish

Hearts substitutes

  • 56' McEntee for Ageu
  • 56' Kerjota for Miller
  • 73' Williams for Wilson
  • 74' Guendouz for Braga · yellow card 65'
  • 82' Findlay for McPake

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Donnelly for Carr
  • 46' Young for Taylor
  • 46' Thomas for Mochrie
  • 67' Sule for Kabia
  • 82' Fraser for Ramsay

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ReusGK900.000.0000.0350
AltenaRB900.000.2020.17153
Fagan-WalcottCB9010.000.0110.0988
McCartCB900.000.0200.0988
MilneLB900.170.0300.0986
AgeuDM560.000.0410.0330
MendyDM9010.180.2210.0123
Miller RW56211.690.0620.0942
BragaAM7410.710.0110.1741
McPakeLW8210.530.0410.18135
WilsonST730.150.0320.1043
McEnteeDF340.000.0100.0004
KerjotaFW340.000.0910.1141
WilliamsFW170.000.0000.0111
Guendouz MF160.000.0000.0000
FindlayDF80.000.0000.0003

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ChapmanGK900.000.0000.0451
RamsayRB820.300.0220.0732
Gogić CB900.000.0200.08810
FieldsonCB900.000.0100.0775
JohnLB900.040.2510.0513
CarrDM460.000.0000.0343
NsioDM900.000.010−0.0335
Mochrie RW460.000.0000.0011
TaylorAM460.000.000−0.0111
KabiaLW670.040.0500.1063
Phillips ST900.040.0430.0121
DonnellyDF440.000.0100.0023
YoungFW440.030.0400.0541
ThomasFW440.220.0810.0623
SuleFW230.020.0200.0110
FraserDF80.000.0100.0320

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Reus and Altena: 5 passesFagan-Walcott and Mendy: 5 passesMcCart and Braga: 6 passesFagan-Walcott and Ageu: 6 passesBraga and McPake: 7 passesMcPake and Wilson: 7 passesAltena and Braga: 8 passesMcCart and Fagan-Walcott: 8 passesMilne and Braga: 8 passesMilne and McPake: 8 passesMendy and McPake: 8 passesAltena and Mendy: 9 passesMilne and Mendy: 9 passesMcCart and Milne: 10 passesReus and Fagan-Walcott: 11 passesAltena and Miller: 11 passesAltena and Fagan-Walcott: 13 passesReus and McCart: 14 passesReus: 20 completed passesAltena: 36 completed passesMcCart: 30 completed passesFagan-Walcott: 28 completed passesMilne: 24 completed passesMendy: 24 completed passesAgeu: 18 completed passesMiller: 17 completed passesBraga: 19 completed passesMcPake: 17 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passes123564187887101521ReusAltenaMcCartFagan-WalcottMilneMendyAgeuMillerBragaMcPakeWilsonStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

Chapman and Taylor: 4 passesRamsay and Gogić: 4 passesGogić and Phillips: 4 passesNsio and Kabia: 4 passesTaylor and Kabia: 4 passesChapman and Gogić: 5 passesRamsay and Carr: 5 passesRamsay and Taylor: 5 passesRamsay and Kabia: 5 passesGogić and Carr: 5 passesFieldson and Nsio: 5 passesFieldson and Kabia: 5 passesJohn and Kabia: 5 passesCarr and Mochrie: 5 passesTaylor and Phillips: 5 passesJohn and Nsio: 6 passesNsio and Taylor: 6 passesMochrie and Taylor: 6 passesGogić and Fieldson: 7 passesFieldson and Taylor: 7 passesNsio and Carr: 7 passesCarr and Taylor: 7 passesGogić and Taylor: 8 passesFieldson and John: 8 passesFieldson and Carr: 8 passesChapman and Fieldson: 14 passesChapman: 15 completed passesRamsay: 16 completed passesGogić: 23 completed passesFieldson: 31 completed passesJohn: 15 completed passesNsio: 16 completed passesCarr: 23 completed passesMochrie: 10 completed passesTaylor: 23 completed passesKabia: 13 completed passesPhillips: 7 completed passes1471353348823301988ChapmanRamsayGogićFieldsonJohnNsioCarrMochrieTaylorKabiaPhillipsStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
AltenaFagan-Walcott12
Fagan-WalcottReus10
Fagan-WalcottAltena10
McCartReus9
MilneBraga8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FieldsonChapman13
JohnFieldson10
NsioFieldson10
ChapmanFieldson8
JohnNsio8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−0.45−1.78−6.07+2.44+0.610+4.010+4.03−2.43−5.02−5.96−0.77+2.96+2.06+0.78+2.13−2.06+3.35+2.112+8.96+0.90−2.37+6.00−1.63+2.02−0.70−0.70−0.42+0.70−0.93+2.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

St. Mirren

7+0.910+1.6160.06−1.73−2.66−2.76+0.14−1.77+3.15+1.94−0.72−3.92−1.74+0.68+5.12−1.77+2.44+1.91−0.60−1.40−2.04+1.31+0.60−0.30−0.71+0.43+1.93−6.11−6.03−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.010.010.020.020.030.010.070.030.010.020.050.040.020.070.100.120.120.090.08−0.01−0.050.050.27LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.030.020.020.010.03−0.020.040.020.030.040.020.040.020.030.020.070.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.49 → 1.55St. Mirren1.12 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.11 → 1.09St. Mirren1.39 → 1.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title1%1%0
Top six93%95%+2
St. Mirren
Top six43%37%−6
11th8%9%+1
Bottom5%7%+2

From the forecast before the match (10 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.740.86
Win58%18%
Expected Points1.980.78
Clean sheet42%18%

Hearts 58%Draw 25%St. Mirren 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%1%4%1%7%6%2%3%2%1%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Title1%1%<1%<1%
Top six93%95%91%87%
St. Mirren
Top six43%37%46%58%
11th8%9%6%4%
Bottom5%7%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  2. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  3. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  4. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  5. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28
  6. W4–09 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.21–0.58

St. Mirren

  1. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  2. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  3. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  4. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41
  5. D3–330 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.92–2.45
  6. W1–08 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.58–1.17

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position3rd5th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠1–⁠23–⁠1–⁠3
Points13 (1.86 per game)10 (1.43 per game)
Expected Points per game1.761.34
Goals14–⁠88–⁠9
xG per game1.82–⁠1.281.59–⁠1.69
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.11–⁠0.761.00, 1.86–⁠2.10
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠1.662.00, 1.23–⁠1.15
ManagerWouter Vrancken (7)Craig McLeish (16)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.49, 3rdSt. Mirren1.12, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.11, 3rdSt. Mirren1.39, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepHearts attack: 1.49St. Mirren attack: 1.121.491.12St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepHearts defence: 1.11St. Mirren defence: 1.391.391.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+14%−20%−21%−3%
Counter-attacks−37%−47%+112%+25%
Set pieces+32%average−28%+3%
Penalties+50%−25%+50%+50%
Headers−8%+1%−44%−12%
Left side+16%−40%−3%+8%
Centre+36%+11%−2%−30%
Right side−34%−45%−11%+48%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+16%+48%Centre+36%−30%Right side−34%+8%Open play+14%−3%Counter-attacks−37%+25%Set pieces+32%+3%Headers−8%−12%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−3%−45%Centre−2%+11%Right side−11%−40%Open play−21%−20%Counter-attacks+112%−47%Set pieces−28%averageHeaders−44%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.82xG1.59
1.28xG against1.69
55%Possession48%
16.6Shots14.3
9.7Shots against14.9
5.3Shots on target3.9
2.6Big chances2.4
29.1Touches in the opposition box27.0
449Passes436
80%Pass accuracy81%
7.6Corners4.6
60%Field tilt48%
37.6Final-third entries39.5
15.9Box entries14.7
12.1Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level231.801.49
Ahead431.571.41
Behind252.290.85

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.842.29
Ahead371.401.23
Behind211.531.59

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.260.101–2
31–450.460.173–0
46–600.200.251–2
61–750.240.152–1
76–900.340.553–2

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.422–3
16–300.230.251–1
31–450.290.223–1
46–600.150.300–1
61–750.430.231–1
76–900.390.271–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Hearts

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
SpittalInjuryEarly October 20263274
RenaudInjuryMid October 2026164
HalkettInjuryMid October 202600

St. Mirren

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DijksteelInjuryMid October 202600
AyungaInjuryEarly January 202700
BaccusInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 7Altena 6Borchgrevink 1McEntee 4McCart 3Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Mendy 1Miller 1Magnússon 3Dhanda 1McEntee 1Mendy 5Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 4Kerjota 3Braga 6Ba-Sy 1McPake 6Miller 1Wilson 5Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 7Ramsay 5Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 6Jackson 1Fraser 1Fieldson 6John 6Sule 1Carr 7Nsio 4Taylor 2Phillips 1Mochrie 3Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Nsio 1Taylor 1Kabia 3Taylor 1Nsio 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Mochrie 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 February 2026St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 2.31–0.23
14 January 2026Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.18–0.98
29 October 2025St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.01–1.57
26 February 2025Hearts3–1St. MirrenxG 1.34–1.17
19 October 2024Hearts4–0St. MirrenxG 1.73–0.24
21 September 2024St. Mirren2–1HeartsxG 1.17–0.39

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 9, St. Mirren won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 28–16 and xG 1.44–1.06 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga7581220.440.08
McPake6474240.170.27
Miller6479100.240.13
Mendy6492100.190.04

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John6540100.070.07
Nsio6540100.090.06
Carr7609000.030.08
Fieldson6540010.040.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.