Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Aberdeen 3–3 St. Mirren

Wednesday 3 December 2025, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 15 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 14,826

Aberdeen Polvara 71', Lazetic 73', 85'

St. Mirren Fraser 55' (pen), Ayunga 82', King 90+9'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Goals33
xG2.081.83
Non-penalty xG2.081.04
Expected Points1.521.21

Aberdeen 42%Draw 26%St. Mirren 32%

Most likely score 2–2, 12%. Final score 3–3, 4%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+3%3%2%2%4%1%2%5%2%1%7%7%4%1%3%3%2%1%1%9%9%10%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTKarlsson on for Jensen, 59'Lazetic on for Aouchiche, 68'Nilsen on for Armstrong and Molloy on for Keskinen, 89'McMenamin on for Richardson, 77'King on for Tanser, Nlundulu on for Baccus, and Donnelly on for Taylor, 78'Mooney on for Mandron, 80'Polvara 71'Lazetic 73'Lazetic 85'Fraser 55' (pen)Ayunga 82'King 90+9'Aberdeen 2.08St. Mirren 1.8301230153045607590HTKarlsson on for Jensen, 59'Lazetic on for Aouchiche, 68'Nilsen on for Armstrong and Molloy on for Keskinen, 89'McMenamin on for Richardson, 77'King on for Tanser, Nlundulu on for Baccus, and Donnelly on for Taylor, 78'Mooney on for Mandron, 80'Polvara 71'Lazetic 73'Lazetic 85'Fraser 55' (pen)Ayunga 82'King 90+9'2.081.83AberdeenSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenSt. Mirren

2.08 +0.91xG1.83 +0.78
2.08Non-penalty xG1.04
2.65 +1.78xG on target1.41 +0.54
18 +6Shots15 +3
8 +4.6Shots on target4 +0.7
4 +2.4Big chances2 +0.5
27 +8Touches in the opposition box24 +1
67% +21Possession33% −11
471 +77Passes230 −105
83% +6Pass accuracy64% −9
80% +36Field tilt20% −28
46 +13Final-third entries22 −14
13 +3Box entries6 −5
13.5 −2Passes per defensive action11.1 −7
8 +3.6Corners6 −0.1
15 −1Tackles18 +6
3 −3.4Interceptions6 −1.0
36 +3Clearances37 +7
1 −1.7Saves5 +1.8
11 −4Fouls16 +4
1 −1.0Offsides1 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Nisbet 39', 0.38 xGAouchiche 10', 0.30 xGAouchiche 61', 0.16 xGKarlsson 61', 0.14 xGNisbet 33', 0.10 xGNisbet 24', 0.06 xGKarlsson 84', 0.06 xGNisbet 21', 0.04 xGArmstrong 39', 0.04 xGNisbet 82', 0.04 xGKeskinen 10', 0.03 xGPolvara 66', 0.03 xGPolvara 56', 0.02 xGKarlsson 73', 0.02 xGNisbet 73', 0.01 xGLazetic 73', 0.33 xG, goalLazetic 85', 0.21 xG, goalPolvara 71', 0.12 xG, goal32%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.66 xG, 3 goals58%1.20 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.20 xG, 0 goals4%0.09 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals6%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Ayunga 90+3', 0.20 xGMooney 90+5', 0.16 xGMandron 23', 0.12 xGTaylor 65', 0.07 xGTaylor 44', 0.04 xGDonnelly 90+4', 0.04 xGGogic 90+5', 0.04 xGMandron 22', 0.03 xGMandron 42', 0.03 xGBaccus 16', 0.02 xGTanser 17', 0.02 xGNlundulu 90+7', 0.02 xGAyunga 82', 0.14 xG, goalKing 90+9', 0.11 xG, goal30%0.31 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.31 xG, 1 goal15%0.16 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals44%0.46 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.46 xG, 1 goal11%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.46 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.34 8 shots, 1 goal
0.10 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.14 1 shot, 1 goal
0.52 5 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.56 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
61 min (61%) · Aberdeen 1.57, St. Mirren 1.05 xG
Aberdeen ahead
23 min (23%) · Aberdeen 0.04, St. Mirren 0.71 xG
St. Mirren ahead
16 min (16%) · Aberdeen 0.47, St. Mirren 0.07 xG

Line-ups

12225387828811615MitovDevlinMilneKnoesterLobbanAouchichePolvaraJensenKeskinenArmstrongNisbetGoal68'59'89'89'Aberdeen 3-4-2-1Jimmy Thelin122132128825303911GeorgeFraserGogicFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsBaccusTaylorTanserMandronAyungaGoalYellow cardGoal77'78'78'78'80'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 59' Karlsson for Jensen
  • 68' Lazetic for Aouchiche · goal 73', goal 85'
  • 89' Molloy for Keskinen
  • 89' Nilsen for Armstrong

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 77' McMenamin for Richardson · 1 assist
  • 78' King for Tanser · goal 90+9'
  • 78' Donnelly for Taylor
  • 78' Nlundulu for Baccus
  • 80' Mooney for Mandron

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0221
DevlinCB900.000.0210.10413
MilneCB900.000.0000.08510
KnoesterCB900.000.1520.24149
LobbanRWB900.000.3220.4587
AouchicheCM680.460.0100.0165
PolvaraCM9010.170.030−0.0335
JensenLWB590.000.0320.0430
KeskinenAM890.030.0410.0732
ArmstrongAM8910.040.3520.2273
NisbetST900.620.012−0.0304
KarlssonFW310.210.0610.0921
LazeticFW2220.530.000−0.0100
MolloyDF10.000.0000.0002
NilsenMF10.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.11121
FraserCB9010.790.0100.03210
GogicCB900.040.0000.02410
FreckletonCB9010.000.2630.17512
RichardsonRWB770.000.0000.0223
PhillipsCM900.000.1120.0620
BaccusCM780.020.0110.0118
Taylor CM780.110.0110.0512
TanserLWB780.020.0100.0455
MandronST800.180.0000.0013
AyungaST9010.350.0220.0413
McMenaminMF1310.000.4330.2023
KingDF1210.110.010−0.1903
DonnellyMF120.040.0010.0002
NlunduluFW120.020.0000.0000
MooneyMF100.160.000−0.0501

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Knoester and Devlin: 4 passesKnoester and Aouchiche: 4 passesLobban and Polvara: 4 passesLobban and Nisbet: 4 passesAouchiche and Keskinen: 4 passesMilne and Aouchiche: 5 passesMilne and Armstrong: 5 passesKeskinen and Armstrong: 5 passesArmstrong and Nisbet: 5 passesDevlin and Lobban: 7 passesMitov and Milne: 8 passesJensen and Keskinen: 8 passesMitov and Knoester: 10 passesKnoester and Armstrong: 10 passesDevlin and Aouchiche: 10 passesAouchiche and Armstrong: 10 passesJensen and Polvara: 11 passesAouchiche and Polvara: 11 passesKnoester and Jensen: 12 passesLobban and Aouchiche: 12 passesKnoester and Polvara: 13 passesPolvara and Armstrong: 15 passesDevlin and Milne: 16 passesMilne and Polvara: 16 passesJensen and Armstrong: 19 passesKnoester and Milne: 31 passesMitov: 17 completed passesKnoester: 46 completed passesDevlin: 21 completed passesMilne: 46 completed passesLobban: 20 completed passesJensen: 30 completed passesAouchiche: 28 completed passesPolvara: 40 completed passesKeskinen: 15 completed passesArmstrong: 38 completed passesNisbet: 9 completed passes15222382878811615MitovKnoesterDevlinMilneLobbanJensenAouchichePolvaraKeskinenArmstrongNisbetStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

George and Freckleton: 3 passesGeorge and Phillips: 3 passesFraser and Richardson: 3 passesFraser and Phillips: 3 passesTanser and Mandron: 3 passesBaccus and Taylor: 3 passesTaylor and Ayunga: 3 passesMandron and Ayunga: 3 passesGeorge and Mandron: 4 passesFreckleton and Tanser: 4 passesBaccus and Mandron: 4 passesPhillips and Mandron: 4 passesFreckleton and Baccus: 5 passesGeorge and Gogic: 6 passesFreckleton and Taylor: 6 passesTanser and Baccus: 6 passesTaylor and Mandron: 6 passesGogic and Freckleton: 7 passesGeorge and Ayunga: 8 passesTanser and Taylor: 8 passesGeorge: 16 completed passesGogic: 10 completed passesFreckleton: 19 completed passesFraser: 11 completed passesRichardson: 7 completed passesTanser: 12 completed passesBaccus: 13 completed passesPhillips: 10 completed passesTaylor: 15 completed passesMandron: 9 completed passesAyunga: 4 completed passes113212223258830911GeorgeGogicFreckletonFraserRichardsonTanserBaccusPhillipsTaylorMandronAyungaStarters until 77' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
KnoesterMilne19
MilneKnoester17
PolvaraKnoester14
ArmstrongJensen13
MilneDevlin12

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GeorgeAyunga10
FreckletonGogic6
PhillipsGeorge4
TaylorTanser4
BaccusTanser4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

4−1.211+4.215+0.56−2.85−0.210+2.56−1.55−0.27−3.26−1.53−2.76+2.64−0.560.07−1.02−0.94+0.52−0.92−1.53−2.23+0.52+1.00−0.93+1.43+0.50−0.10−0.10−0.51+0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

St. Mirren

8+3.68+0.421+3.86−0.43−1.93−3.110+2.29+3.37+0.39+4.150.02−2.15+2.37+3.23−0.84+0.24+0.91−2.13+1.14+1.44+1.520.01−0.83+1.55+2.24+3.20−0.63+2.00−0.11+0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.020.020.030.030.010.040.010.040.040.010.020.080.080.170.24−0.040.040.060.06−0.07−0.020.36LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.090.010.010.030.010.020.010.020.010.010.040.020.010.010.01−0.030.040.03−0.230.180.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.20 → 1.21St. Mirren1.15 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.39 → 1.39St. Mirren1.43 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six39%34%−5
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%1%0
St. Mirren
Top six9%8%−1
11th13%13%0
Bottom8%7%−1
Falkirk
Top six47%49%+2
11th4%3%−1
Dundee FC
11th29%27%−2
Bottom36%38%+2

From the forecast before the match (3 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.491.06
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.671.06
Clean sheet35%22%

Aberdeen 47%Draw 27%St. Mirren 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%2%7%2%9%9%5%2%4%5%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawSt. Mirren win
Aberdeen
Top six39%47%34%28%
11th3%2%4%5%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
St. Mirren
Top six9%5%8%15%
11th13%16%13%9%
Bottom8%11%7%4%
Falkirk
Top six47%44%49%49%
11th4%4%3%3%
Dundee FC
11th29%29%27%30%
Bottom36%35%38%36%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W1–030 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.76–0.99
  2. W1–023 NovHearts (H)xG 0.56–2.30
  3. D1–19 NovMotherwell (H)xG 0.80–0.68
  4. W1–029 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.55–1.36
  5. L1–226 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.24–3.20
  6. W1–018 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.05–0.48

St. Mirren

  1. L1–329 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.39–0.68
  2. L0–122 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.53–0.88
  3. L0–38 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.78–1.62
  4. D2–229 OctHearts (H)xG 1.01–1.57
  5. L1–325 OctDundee United (A)xG 2.28–2.21
  6. L0–118 OctAberdeen (H)xG 0.48–2.05

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Position7th11th
Played1313
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠2–⁠62–⁠4–⁠7
Points17 (1.31 per game)10 (0.77 per game)
Expected Points per game1.291.12
Goals10–⁠129–⁠19
xG per game1.17–⁠1.281.05–⁠1.42
Home: points, xG per game1.14, 1.16–⁠1.350.86, 0.98–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.18–⁠1.200.67, 1.12–⁠1.59
ManagerJimmy Thelin (51)Stephen Robinson (84)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.20, 6thSt. Mirren1.15, 10thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.39, 6thSt. Mirren1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovAberdeen attack: 1.20St. Mirren attack: 1.151.201.15St. MirrenAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovAberdeen defence: 1.39St. Mirren defence: 1.431.431.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−16%−20%+5%
Counter-attacks+43%+27%−57%+104%
Set pieces−18%+24%+21%−17%
Penalties−58%−58%−100%−58%
Headers−37%+6%+22%+11%
Left side+16%−5%−25%+11%
Centre−19%−2%−6%+18%
Right side−7%+14%−19%−2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+16%−2%Centre−19%+18%Right side−7%+11%Open play−15%+5%Counter-attacks+43%+104%Set pieces−18%−17%Headers−37%+11%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−25%+14%Centre−6%−2%Right side−19%−5%Open play−20%−16%Counter-attacks−57%+27%Set pieces+21%+24%Headers+22%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.17xG1.05
1.28xG against1.42
46%Possession44%
11.9Shots11.8
13.1Shots against13.0
3.4Shots on target3.3
1.6Big chances1.5
19.4Touches in the opposition box23.0
394Passes335
77%Pass accuracy73%
4.4Corners6.1
44%Field tilt48%
33.4Final-third entries36.2
10.1Box entries11.2
15.9Passes per defensive action18.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level541.190.94
Ahead160.901.41
Behind201.332.12

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level621.111.31
Ahead140.951.83
Behind140.861.46

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.140–1
16–300.170.163–1
31–450.280.142–2
46–600.130.350–1
61–750.180.202–4
76–900.270.303–3

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.140–0
16–300.200.183–3
31–450.180.232–4
46–600.140.171–1
61–750.150.362–2
76–900.230.351–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 13Jensen 6Devlin 5Lobban 2Milne 11Dorrington 2Devlin 1Knoester 12Gyamfi 5Shinnie 2Jensen 2Nilsen 4Armstrong 4Polvara 3Shinnie 7Palaversa 3Clarkson 2Milanovic 4Devlin 3Aouchiche 2Aouchiche 5Lobban 2Polvara 2Karlsson 9Keskinen 3Armstrong 1Nisbet 6Lazetic 4Yengi 34-2-3-1 in 5 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-3 (4)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 13Fraser 11King 5Gogic 11Freckleton 12Richardson 11McMena… 2McMenaminPhillips 13Baccus 10Donnelly 3Taylor 1O'Hara 8McMena… 2McMenaminIdowu 2John 13Nlundulu 6Ayunga 6Idowu 2Mandron 123-5-2 in 10 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 5-3-2 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 October 2025St. Mirren0–1AberdeenxG 0.48–2.05
3 May 2025St. Mirren1–0AberdeenxG 1.22–0.47
25 January 2025Aberdeen0–3St. MirrenxG 1.41–1.78
23 November 2024St. Mirren2–1AberdeenxG 1.56–1.38
11 August 2024Aberdeen3–1St. MirrenxG 1.60–1.30
2 March 2024St. Mirren2–1AberdeenxG 2.01–0.98

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 6, St. Mirren won 9, and 4 were drawn. Goals 26–28 and xG 1.35–1.41 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Karlsson9743300.310.15
Armstrong8659110.220.14
Lazetic4461210.300.02
Aouchiche9746100.210.07

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nlundulu6545200.340.03
Mandron12978220.190.12
Ayunga6598100.260.04
John131,093120.020.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.