Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Rangers 3–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 · Ibrox Stadium · Round 8 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee Matthew MacDermid · Attendance 50,501

Rangers Naderi 15', 44', Kelsy 24'

Kilmarnock Cleșcenco 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

RangersKilmarnock
Goals31
xG1.421.15
Expected Points1.551.16

Rangers 42%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 3–1, 4%.

Kilmarnock goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+7%8%5%2%10%8%3%8%10%6%2%3%4%3%1%1%1%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTNedeljković on for Sterling, 46'Curtis on for Kelsy, 73'Chukwuani on for Neil, 87'Miovski on for Kim and Bouanani on for Gassama, 88'Cleșcenco on for Ring, 75'Brandon on for Kamara, 79'Daniëls on for Kiltie, 80'Naderi 15'Kelsy 24'Naderi 44'Cleșcenco 90'Rangers 1.42Kilmarnock 1.1500.511.50153045607590HTNedeljković on for Sterling, 46'Curtis on for Kelsy, 73'Chukwuani on for Neil, 87'Miovski on for Kim and Bouanani on for Gassama, 88'Cleșcenco on for Ring, 75'Brandon on for Kamara, 79'Daniëls on for Kiltie, 80'Naderi 15'Kelsy 24'Naderi 44'Cleșcenco 90'1.421.15RangersKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

RangersKilmarnock

1.42 −0.85xG1.15 +0.13
0.81 −0.86xG on target0.82 −0.15
18 −2.4Shots13 +3.1
4 −2.6Shots on target5 +1.1
2 −1.0Big chances0 −1.9
41 +3Touches in the opposition box21 +1
60% +6Possession40% −3
505 +64Passes333 −51
86% +7Pass accuracy79% +3
61% +1Field tilt39% 0
57 +11Final-third entries34 −3
18 −0.7Box entries17 +7.4
11.4 0Passes per defensive action11.9 −5
7 −0.4Corners3 −1.9
12 −6Tackles21 +6
7 −1.7Interceptions7 −1.6
13 −12Clearances25 −4
4 +2.0Saves1 −3.1
15 +1Fouls13 +1
1 0.0Offsides1 +0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Rangers

Penrice 86', 0.13 xGKim 23', 0.11 xGGassama 29', 0.10 xGGassama 10', 0.09 xGGassama 81', 0.09 xGKim 83', 0.06 xGCurtis 81', 0.05 xGKim 59', 0.04 xGGassama 53', 0.03 xGGassama 13', 0.02 xGGassama 44', 0.02 xGGassama 60', 0.02 xGNeil 78', 0.02 xGFernandez 84', 0.02 xGKelsy 47', 0.01 xGKelsy 24', 0.25 xG, goalNaderi 15', 0.22 xG, goalNaderi 44', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%1.00 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.00 xG, 3 goals10%0.14 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals18%0.25 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kiltie 62', 0.22 xGHugill 14', 0.14 xGJohn-Jules 58', 0.14 xGHugill 72', 0.08 xGHugill 39', 0.07 xGRing 40', 0.07 xGJohn-Jules 52', 0.07 xGLowery 18', 0.06 xGHugill 56', 0.04 xGRing 72', 0.04 xGTshibola 68', 0.03 xGTshibola 61', 0.02 xGCleșcenco 90', 0.19 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals60%0.68 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.68 xG, 1 goal37%0.42 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

RangersKilmarnock

1.16 15 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.90 11 shots, 0 goals
0.11 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.19 1 shot, 1 goal
0.15 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.06 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (16%) · Rangers 0.33, Kilmarnock 0.14 xG
Rangers ahead
76 min (84%) · Rangers 1.09, Kilmarnock 1.01 xG

Line-ups

12137242964310202319PandurSterlingFernandezMakhanyaPenriceNeilRaskinKimNaderiGassamaKelsyGoalGoalGoal46'87'88'88'73'Rangers 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes123414213618810119FerrieKamaraMcCarthyStangerSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaLoweryRingJohn-JulesKiltieHugillYellow card79'75'80'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Neil McCann

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Nedeljković for Sterling · yellow card 64'
  • 73' Curtis for Kelsy
  • 87' Chukwuani for Neil
  • 88' Bouanani for Gassama
  • 88' Miovski for Kim

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 75' Cleșcenco for Ring · goal 90'
  • 79' Brandon for Kamara
  • 80' Daniëls for Kiltie

Players

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PandurGK900.000.0000.0431
SterlingRB460.000.0100.0633
FernandezCB900.020.0420.15910
MakhanyaCB900.000.0100.0876
PenriceLB9010.130.2840.2064
NeilDM870.020.1130.18143
RaskinDM900.000.1100.17132
KimRW880.210.1410.1481
NaderiAM9020.340.2320.2441
GassamaLW8810.380.0330.0260
KelsyST7310.260.0210.0210
Nedeljković DF440.000.0100.0003
CurtisMF170.050.0200.1940
ChukwuaniMF30.000.0000.0100
BouananiFW20.000.0100.0101
MiovskiFW20.000.0000.0100

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FerrieGK900.000.0000.0111
KamaraRB790.000.0710.1477
McCarthyCB900.000.0210.0579
StangerCB900.000.0000.04412
Schjønning-Larsen LB900.000.0100.0858
TshibolaDM900.040.0310.0448
LoweryDM900.060.1210.15151
RingRW750.100.2710.1940
John-JulesAM900.210.3440.1441
KiltieLW800.220.1210.0733
HugillST9010.320.0310.0212
CleșcencoFW1510.190.0000.0603
BrandonDF110.000.0000.0001
DaniëlsFW100.000.0000.0113

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Rangers

Sterling and Naderi: 4 passesFernandez and Neil: 4 passesPenrice and Raskin: 4 passesNeil and Kelsy: 4 passesPandur and Raskin: 5 passesNeil and Kim: 5 passesKim and Gassama: 5 passesMakhanya and Gassama: 6 passesFernandez and Kelsy: 6 passesNeil and Gassama: 6 passesSterling and Kim: 7 passesFernandez and Raskin: 7 passesFernandez and Kim: 7 passesRaskin and Kim: 7 passesRaskin and Kelsy: 7 passesNeil and Naderi: 7 passesMakhanya and Neil: 8 passesRaskin and Neil: 9 passesMakhanya and Raskin: 10 passesPandur and Fernandez: 11 passesSterling and Fernandez: 16 passesMakhanya and Fernandez: 16 passesSterling and Raskin: 17 passesPandur and Makhanya: 18 passesMakhanya and Penrice: 19 passesPandur: 23 completed passesSterling: 26 completed passesMakhanya: 42 completed passesFernandez: 38 completed passesPenrice: 17 completed passesRaskin: 37 completed passesNeil: 22 completed passesKim: 15 completed passesNaderi: 12 completed passesGassama: 11 completed passesKelsy: 11 completed passes12124372943610202319PandurSterlingMakhanyaFernandezPenriceRaskinNeilKimNaderiGassamaKelsyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Ferrie and Stanger: 5 passesFerrie and Schjønning-Larsen: 5 passesKamara and Lowery: 5 passesKamara and Ring: 5 passesJohn-Jules and Hugill: 5 passesKamara and Tshibola: 6 passesMcCarthy and Tshibola: 6 passesStanger and Schjønning-Larsen: 6 passesRing and John-Jules: 6 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Kiltie: 7 passesKamara and McCarthy: 8 passesLowery and John-Jules: 8 passesStanger and Tshibola: 9 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Tshibola: 9 passesJohn-Jules and Kiltie: 9 passesMcCarthy and Stanger: 10 passesFerrie and McCarthy: 11 passesStanger and Lowery: 11 passesSchjønning-Larsen and John-Jules: 12 passesTshibola and John-Jules: 12 passesLowery and Kiltie: 13 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lowery: 15 passesTshibola and Lowery: 19 passesFerrie: 17 completed passesKamara: 17 completed passesMcCarthy: 29 completed passesStanger: 24 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 28 completed passesTshibola: 33 completed passesLowery: 44 completed passesRing: 9 completed passesJohn-Jules: 23 completed passesKiltie: 26 completed passesHugill: 3 completed passes123414213618810119FerrieKamaraMcCarthyStangerSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaLoweryRingJohn-JulesKiltieHugillStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Rangers

FromToPasses
MakhanyaPenrice14
RaskinMakhanya12
FernandezPandur11
PandurMakhanya11
MakhanyaPandur11

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
TshibolaLowery16
LowerySchjønning-Larsen13
KiltieLowery10
Schjønning-LarsenJohn-Jules10
John-JulesTshibola10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Rangers

8+4.73−2.310−0.68+2.78+0.73−1.780.02−3.63−2.63−1.710+3.46+1.19+3.69+4.40−3.11−1.76+2.32−2.02+0.32+0.32+0.31−1.40−1.90−0.40−1.11−0.31−0.33−4.40−4.32−4.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Kilmarnock

2−3.19+1.019+1.912+5.00−3.16−0.48+1.19+3.46−1.16−0.17+3.040.02−1.63−0.34−0.64−0.65−0.33+1.35+1.77+4.42−0.40−1.00−2.14+3.06+3.31+0.11+0.31+0.30−0.30−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Rangers

0.020.030.010.020.010.020.060.020.020.030.040.020.060.040.050.100.080.120.040.03−0.060.120.140.140.190.17LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.050.020.010.030.010.020.030.040.040.070.030.010.070.050.050.010.170.130.13LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackRangers1.94 → 1.92Kilmarnock1.16 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Rangers0.97 → 0.98Kilmarnock1.60 → 1.59

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Rangers
Title32%34%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six10%8%−2
11th20%20%0
Bottom27%29%+2
Celtic
Title68%65%−3
Dundee FC
Top six28%28%0
11th13%13%0
Bottom11%11%0

From the forecast before the match (10 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

RangersKilmarnock
Expected goals2.670.76
Win77%8%
Expected Points2.470.38
Clean sheet47%7%

Rangers 77%Draw 15%Kilmarnock 8%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Kilmarnock goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+4%2%7%2%3%8%3%7%5%2%4%3%1%3%2%8%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRangers winDrawKilmarnock win
Rangers
Title32%34%25%22%
Kilmarnock
Top six10%8%12%20%
11th20%20%20%16%
Bottom27%29%24%15%
Celtic
Title68%65%75%77%
Dundee FC
Top six28%28%24%27%
11th13%13%13%15%
Bottom11%11%12%13%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Rangers

  1. W1–020 SepCeltic (A)xG 1.81–0.39
  2. W1–09 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.49–1.26
  3. W1–05 SepMotherwell (H)xG 4.29–0.70
  4. W2–12 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–1.00
  5. W1–030 AugAberdeen (A)xG 2.10–0.35
  6. L1–29 AugHibernian (H)xG 2.20–1.68

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  2. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  3. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  4. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  5. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42
  6. L1–59 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.98–5.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

RangersKilmarnock
Position2nd12th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠11–⁠2–⁠4
Points16 (2.29 per game)5 (0.71 per game)
Expected Points per game2.130.76
Goals8–⁠46–⁠15
xG per game2.27–⁠1.001.02–⁠2.32
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 2.99–⁠1.210.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game2.50, 1.73–⁠0.841.33, 1.41–⁠1.52
ManagerDerek McInnes (7)Neil McCann (23)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackRangers1.94, 2ndKilmarnock1.16, 8thDefence (lower is better)Rangers0.97, 2ndKilmarnock1.60, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepRangers attack: 1.94Kilmarnock attack: 1.161.941.16KilmarnockRangersDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepRangers defence: 0.97Kilmarnock defence: 1.601.600.97

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

RangersKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+43%−53%−24%+41%
Counter-attacks+30%+17%−88%+108%
Set pieces+51%−28%−9%+58%
Penalties+50%−25%−100%−25%
Headers+44%−44%−29%+151%
Left side+31%−15%−39%+64%
Centre+63%−35%−26%+79%
Right side+22%−63%−22%+6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+31%+6%Centre+63%+79%Right side+22%+64%Open play+43%+41%Counter-attacks+30%+108%Set pieces+51%+58%Headers+44%+151%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side−39%−63%Centre−26%−35%Right side−22%−15%Open play−24%−53%Counter-attacks−88%+17%Set pieces−9%−28%Headers−29%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

RangersKilmarnock

2.27xG1.02
1.00xG against2.32
54%Possession43%
20.4Shots9.9
9.0Shots against18.6
6.6Shots on target3.9
3.0Big chances1.9
37.7Touches in the opposition box20.0
441Passes384
79%Pass accuracy77%
7.4Corners4.9
60%Field tilt39%
46.3Final-third entries37.2
18.7Box entries9.6
11.3Passes per defensive action17.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level482.201.35
Ahead292.190.49
Behind132.750.87

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level300.821.75
Ahead191.462.19
Behind410.962.80

xG by period

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.340.212–1
16–300.490.060–0
31–450.440.281–2
46–600.380.141–0
61–750.290.161–0
76–900.330.153–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–3
16–300.110.351–1
31–450.180.462–4
46–600.230.353–2
61–750.130.330–2
76–900.210.540–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Rangers

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DevlinInjuryEarly November 20264335
YokotaInjuryEarly October 20261116
ShanklandInjuryEarly December 20265364
ChermitiInjuryLate April 2027180
CifuentesInjuryMid October 202600

Kilmarnock

None listed.

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPandur 7Sterling 5Makhanya 1Nedeljkovic 1Fernandez 7Godfrey 1Makhanya 5Rommens 1Penrice 5Rommens 1Chermiti 1Raskin 5Devlin 3Dragojevic 1Neil 4Diomande 1Curtis 3Naderi 1Kim 1Kim 3Naderi 2Devlin 1Gassama 6Curtis 1Shankland 5Kelsy 24-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 1Ring 3Brandon 3Meier 1McCarthy 4Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 6Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 7Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2McCarthy 1Lowery 1Ring 2O'Hara 2Kiltie 1Lowery 6Rice 2Kiltie 4Tshibola 2Clescenco 1John-Jules 6Daniëls 1Hugill 74-4-2 in 2 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 February 2026Rangers5–1KilmarnockxG 3.14–1.39
6 December 2025Kilmarnock0–3RangersxG 0.66–0.75
26 October 2025Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 1.36–1.04
26 February 2025Kilmarnock2–4RangersxG 1.38–1.95
4 December 2024Rangers6–0KilmarnockxG 4.60–0.09
20 October 2024Kilmarnock1–0RangersxG 0.63–1.14

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Rangers won 14, Kilmarnock won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 42–12 and xG 2.26–0.73 per game.

Key players

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Gassama6468010.330.19
Sterling5450000.010.31
Fernandez7630000.090.09
Makhanya6540000.000.03

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie7619100.290.19
Hugill7630100.240.04
Ring6458000.040.16
Lowery7610020.050.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.