Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock 0–4 Dundee United

Saturday 29 August 2026, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 4 · Half-time 0–3 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 5,389

Dundee United Agyei 12', Sapsford 36' (pen), Ferry 41', Randall 77'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee United
Goals04
xG1.133.42
Non-penalty xG1.132.63
Expected Points0.242.66

Kilmarnock 5%Draw 10%Dundee United 85%

Most likely score 1–3, 11%. Final score 0–4, 7%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%6%7%4%2%3%7%5%3%1%4%6%5%3%2%1%2%2%1%8%11%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTStanger on for Deas, 19'Brandon on for Meier and Daniëls on for Clescenco, 46'Rice on for O'Hara and Burke on for John-Jules, 64'Randall on for Merghem and Rose on for Yoro, 63'Farrugia on for Sapsford, 74'Naamo on for Bennie, 79'Agyei 12'Sapsford 36' (pen)Ferry 41'Randall 77'Dundee United 3.42Kilmarnock 1.13012340153045607590HTStanger on for Deas, 19'Brandon on for Meier and Daniëls on for Clescenco, 46'Rice on for O'Hara and Burke on for John-Jules, 64'Randall on for Merghem and Rose on for Yoro, 63'Farrugia on for Sapsford, 74'Naamo on for Bennie, 79'Agyei 12'Sapsford 36' (pen)Ferry 41'Randall 77'3.421.13KilmarnockDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

1.13 +0.18xG3.42 +2.28
1.13Non-penalty xG2.63
0.91 −0.40xG on target3.99 +3.44
16 +7.5Shots21 +5.7
4 −1.0Shots on target8 +5.3
0 −3.0Big chances7 +5.3
25 +4Touches in the opposition box32 −1
52% +12Possession48% −9
449 +50Passes417 −18
81% +2Pass accuracy83% +6
52% +14Field tilt48% −1
44 +6Final-third entries48 +7
15 +6.5Box entries21 +8.3
12.6 −9.8Passes per defensive action16.7 +9.2
3 −1.0Corners5 +0.7
11 −2Tackles13 −7
17 +11.0Interceptions12 −2.0
21 −3Clearances32 0
4 −2.5Saves5 +1.7
11 −2Fouls12 −1
0 −0.5Offsides3 +1.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Hugill 48', 0.31 xGHugill 4', 0.11 xGHugill 59', 0.11 xGO'Hara 11', 0.09 xGRice 83', 0.08 xGJohn-Jules 2', 0.06 xGHugill 30', 0.05 xGKiltie 42', 0.05 xGJohn-Jules 50', 0.05 xGKiltie 15', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 50', 0.04 xGSchjønning-Larsen 51', 0.04 xGSchjønning-Larsen 58', 0.03 xGBurke 74', 0.03 xGLowery 14', 0.02 xGO'Hara 59', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals65%0.73 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.73 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals28%0.32 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Rose 75', 0.59 xGForbes 7', 0.52 xGYoro 52', 0.37 xGRose 72', 0.14 xGEsselink 84', 0.13 xGBennie 18', 0.12 xGSapsford 73', 0.10 xGBennie 48', 0.08 xGMerghem 52', 0.05 xGMerghem 59', 0.05 xGBennie 15', 0.04 xGBennie 11', 0.03 xGBennie 12', 0.03 xGMerghem 22', 0.03 xGBennie 57', 0.03 xGMerghem 9', 0.02 xGFerry 15', 0.02 xGRandall 77', 0.18 xG, goalAgyei 12', 0.07 xG, goalFerry 41', 0.03 xG, goal34%0.90 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.90 xG, 2 goals53%1.40 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.40 xG, 0 goals5%0.14 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals6%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

1.11 15 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.85 13 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks1.06 4 shots, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.72 3 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
12 min (13%) · Kilmarnock 0.27, Dundee United 0.67 xG
Dundee United ahead
80 min (87%) · Kilmarnock 0.86, Dundee United 2.75 xG

Line-ups

11946212051811910StryjekMeierMcCarthyDeasSchjønning-LarsenClescencoO'HaraLoweryKiltieHugillJohn-JulesYellow cardYellow card46'19'46'64'64'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Neil McCann12331811261287977WaltonRawlinsEsselinkForbesFerryYoroAgyeiCamaráMerghemSapsfordBennieYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card63'63'74'79'Dundee United 4-3-3Jim Goodwin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 19' Stanger for Deas
  • 46' Brandon for Meier
  • 46' Daniëls for Clescenco
  • 64' Rice for O'Hara · yellow card 90+2'
  • 64' Burke for John-Jules

Dundee United substitutes

  • 63' Randall for Merghem · goal 77'
  • 63' Rose for Yoro
  • 74' Farrugia for Sapsford
  • 79' Naamo for Bennie

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0101
MeierRB460.000.0000.0121
McCarthy CB900.000.0200.13717
DeasCB190.000.0000.0454
Schjønning-LarsenLB900.070.2120.33132
ClescencoRM460.000.2530.3354
O'HaraCM640.120.0000.0012
LoweryCM900.020.0500.0333
KiltieLM900.080.1130.2565
Hugill ST900.580.0400.0850
John-JulesST640.150.0110.0443
StangerDF710.000.0110.12117
BrandonDF440.000.0310.0582
DaniëlsFW440.000.032−0.0100
Rice MF260.080.0100.0220
BurkeFW260.030.0200.0521

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0000.0111
RawlinsRB900.000.2010.2264
Esselink CB900.130.0110.111117
ForbesCB900.520.0000.04312
Ferry LB90110.060.0840.27135
YoroCM630.370.0300.0011
AgyeiCM9010.070.0120.02216
CamaráCM900.000.1310.1864
MerghemRW6320.140.1530.24150
Sapsford ST7410.890.6020.2333
BennieLW790.330.1330.2542
RandallFW2710.180.4330.2460
RoseFW270.730.0000.0500
FarrugiaMF160.000.0100.0310
NaamoMF110.000.0200.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Rawlins and Agyei: 5 passesEsselink and Agyei: 5 passesEsselink and Merghem: 5 passesYoro and Merghem: 5 passesFerry and Agyei: 6 passesYoro and Agyei: 6 passesCamará and Bennie: 7 passesWalton and Forbes: 8 passesFerry and Camará: 8 passesAgyei and Merghem: 8 passesAgyei and Bennie: 8 passesWalton and Esselink: 9 passesForbes and Ferry: 9 passesCamará and Yoro: 9 passesFerry and Yoro: 10 passesCamará and Merghem: 10 passesRawlins and Esselink: 12 passesFerry and Bennie: 13 passesMerghem and Sapsford: 13 passesCamará and Agyei: 14 passesRawlins and Merghem: 15 passesEsselink and Forbes: 22 passesWalton: 14 completed passesRawlins: 23 completed passesEsselink: 32 completed passesForbes: 28 completed passesFerry: 28 completed passesCamará: 31 completed passesYoro: 21 completed passesAgyei: 32 completed passesMerghem: 29 completed passesSapsford: 13 completed passesBennie: 16 completed passes12331811826127977WaltonRawlinsEsselinkForbesFerryCamaráYoroAgyeiMerghemSapsfordBennieStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
Schjønning-LarsenLowery14
StangerSchjønning-Larsen14
StryjekMcCarthy13
McCarthyStanger12
McCarthyBrandon10

Dundee United

FromToPasses
EsselinkForbes15
RawlinsEsselink12
WaltonEsselink12
ForbesFerry12
ForbesEsselink11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5−0.55−4.513−0.57+5.03−1.06−3.08+2.56−1.040.04+3.05−0.52−0.52−2.04−1.06+2.07+4.01+0.51−5.01−2.53+1.51+0.56+5.50−2.04+2.510.00−0.51−1.00−0.500.02−11.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Dundee United

0−3.75−2.318+2.04−1.711+5.36+1.39+2.09−1.06+2.04−3.37+1.76+0.79+2.711+4.35−1.71−3.04+0.73+0.32−0.70−2.34+2.31+0.32−1.01−0.30−1.30−1.00−0.70−0.71−6.31−6.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.020.030.030.010.020.040.030.020.050.040.070.050.010.050.040.030.070.080.030.090.06−0.030.61LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.020.050.010.020.040.040.010.050.030.130.070.010.020.030.02−0.02−0.040.010.220.10−0.060.350.73LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.23 → 1.20Dundee United1.17 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.60 → 1.65Dundee United1.54 → 1.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six14%10%−4
11th17%19%+2
Bottom16%24%+8
Dundee United
Top six10%16%+6
11th20%16%−4
Bottom22%14%−8

From the forecast before the match (29 August 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.641.23
Win46%28%
Expected Points1.651.10
Clean sheet29%19%

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 26%Dundee United 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 58%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%6%4%2%7%3%8%6%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%9%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 August 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee United win
Kilmarnock
Top six14%17%12%10%
11th17%15%19%19%
Bottom16%11%17%24%
Dundee United
Top six10%6%9%16%
11th20%22%20%16%
Bottom22%28%21%14%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–59 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.98–5.50
  2. L3–42 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.92–2.03
  3. W4–117 MayLivingston (A)xG 2.77–1.33
  4. W3–112 MayDundee FC (H)xG 3.48–0.43
  5. W3–09 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.49–1.21
  6. W3–02 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.40–2.11

Dundee United

  1. L0–222 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.19–1.43
  2. L0–49 AugHearts (A)xG 0.58–2.21
  3. D1–131 JulRangers (H)xG 1.64–1.46
  4. D1–117 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 0.50–1.02
  5. D0–012 MayLivingston (H)xG 1.54–0.92
  6. L0–29 MayAberdeen (A)xG 0.79–2.17

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position12th11th
Played23
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠0–⁠20–⁠1–⁠2
Points0 (0.00 per game)1 (0.33 per game)
Expected Points per game0.321.00
Goals4–⁠91–⁠7
xG per game0.95–⁠3.761.14–⁠1.70
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 0.98–⁠5.500.50, 1.42–⁠1.44
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 0.92–⁠2.030.00, 0.58–⁠2.21
ManagerNeil McCann (18)Jim Goodwin (91)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.23, 6thDundee United1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.60, 12thDundee United1.54, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugKilmarnock attack: 1.23Dundee United attack: 1.171.231.17Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugKilmarnock defence: 1.60Dundee United defence: 1.541.601.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+77%−32%+20%
Counter-attacks−14%+80%+28%−28%
Set pieces−14%+44%+3%+21%
Penalties−76%+31%−37%+16%
Headers−16%+120%−22%−8%
Left side−35%+29%−28%average
Centre+6%+99%−24%+26%
Right side−25%+51%+15%average

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−35%averageCentre+6%+26%Right side−25%averageOpen play−9%+20%Counter-attacks−14%−28%Set pieces−14%+21%Headers−16%−8%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−28%+51%Centre−24%+99%Right side+15%+29%Open play−32%+77%Counter-attacks+28%+80%Set pieces+3%+44%Headers−22%+120%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

0.95xG1.14
3.76xG against1.70
40%Possession57%
8.5Shots15.3
24.0Shots against15.7
5.0Shots on target2.7
3.0Big chances1.7
21.0Touches in the opposition box32.7
400Passes435
79%Pass accuracy77%
4.0Corners4.3
39%Field tilt49%
38.0Final-third entries41.0
8.5Box entries12.7
22.4Passes per defensive action7.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level220.153.91
Ahead80.391.63
Behind601.313.99

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.470.71
Ahead60.203.40
Behind440.952.35

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.350.500–1
16–300.011.030–1
31–450.300.621–2
46–600.170.493–2
61–750.000.470–2
76–900.100.660–1

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.400–2
16–300.080.040–0
31–450.370.301–1
46–600.140.440–3
61–750.130.360–1
76–900.310.160–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMCMCMAMSTSTStryjek 2Ring 1Brandon 1Stanger 2Schilte-Brown 1Yfeko 1Schjønning-L… 2Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 1Tshibola 1Tshibola 1Ring 1Lowery 2John-Jules 1Kiltie 1Hugill 2John-Jules 1Clescenco 14-1-2-1-2 in 1 of 2 starts

Formations: 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 3Rawlins 2Yoro 1Esselink 3Forbes 3Ferry 3Sevelj 3Tait 3Agyei 2Camará 1Randall 2Merghem 1Rose 2Metsoko 1Randall 1Bennie 1Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 May 2026Kilmarnock3–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.40–2.11
21 February 2026Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.05–0.50
29 November 2025Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.11–1.86
27 September 2025Dundee United0–2KilmarnockxG 2.21–1.49
1 February 2025Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.39–1.46
7 December 2024Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.38–1.62

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 7, Dundee United won 2, and 6 were drawn. Goals 25–14 and xG 1.59–1.50 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hugill141,271920.430.10
John-Jules141,271820.400.07
Kiltie302,505570.160.21
Tshibola121,035000.120.07

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sapsford322,804920.360.08
Ferry353,156460.050.27
Farrugia10936000.120.13
Sevelj322,800030.130.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.