Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian 0–1 Kilmarnock

Tuesday 15 September 2026, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 3 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 15,493

Kilmarnock Stanger 40' · Daniëls sent off 90+2'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Goals	0	1
xG	1.45	2.21
Expected Points	0.88	1.90

Hibernian 22%Draw 23%Kilmarnock 56%

Most likely score 1–2, 11%. Final score 0–1, 5%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

1.45 −0.36xG2.21 +1.30

1.98 +0.72xG on target2.50 +1.64

23 +6Shots13 +3

7 +2.6Shots on target7 +3.0

1 −1.6Big chances5 +3.4

48 +18Touches in the opposition box23 +2

60% +12Possession40% −5

494 +64Passes329 −88

83% +3Pass accuracy74% −6

72% +22Field tilt28% −15

54 +11Final-third entries34 −8

25 +11Box entries9 −1

11.9 −3Passes per defensive action22.9 +6

15 +8.8Corners7 +2.0

14 −5Tackles8 −9

14 +8.0Interceptions9 +0.2

24 +1Clearances45 +20

6 +2.6Saves7 +3.0

8 −6Fouls10 −2

5 +3.0Offsides2 +1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

0.74 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.28 5 shots, 0 goals

0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 0 goals

0.71 11 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.88 7 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–1

Level: 40 min (40%) · Hibernian 0.15, Kilmarnock 0.45 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 59 min (60%) · Hibernian 1.30, Kilmarnock 1.75 xG

Line-ups

Hibernian substitutes

8' Hanley for Megwa
53' Boyle for Wright
53' Lowe for Klidje
53' Elding for Šuto
67' Chaiwa for Devaney

Kilmarnock substitutes

67' Brandon for Kamara
67' O'Hara for Rice
73' Daniëls for John-Jules · yellow card 78', second yellow 90+2'
90+1' McKenzie for Ring

Players

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Sallinger	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.03	2	3
Kerr	CB	90	0.41	0.05	1	0.19	12	11
Iredale	CB	90	0.10	0.09	2	0.19	11	3
Megwa	CB	8	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	0
Devaney	DM	67	0.10	0.01	0	−0.02	2	6
Passlack	RWB	90	0.05	0.88	6	0.66	12	1
Mulligan	CM	90	0.28	0.06	1	0.11	7	4
Wright	CM	53	0.06	0.03	0	−0.08	0	0
Mayor	LWB	90	0.06	0.18	1	0.22	16	4
Šuto	ST	53	0.00	0.10	2	0.15	4	1
Klidje	ST	53	0.04	0.06	1	0.04	0	0
Hanley	DF	82	0.03	0.35	1	0.08	4	18
Boyle	FW	37	0.01	0.01	1	−0.01	0	0
Lowe	FW	37	0.20	0.00	0	0.00	0	1
Elding	FW	37	0.06	0.09	3	0.11	1	0
Chaiwa	MF	23	0.04	0.02	0	0.01	1	1

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Stryjek	GK	90		0.00	0.01	0	0.07	4	3
Kamara	CB	67		0.00	0.01	0	0.02	3	7
McCarthy	CB	90		0.16	0.01	0	0.06	4	10
Stanger	CB	90	1	0.10	0.00	0	0.01	3	10
Ring	RWB	90		0.00	0.03	2	0.06	7	6
Lowery	CM	90		0.00	0.06	1	0.08	4	2
Rice	CM	67		0.04	0.17	1	−0.02	1	2
Schjønning-Larsen	LWB	90		0.00	0.19	1	0.27	8	9
Kiltie	AM	90		0.81	0.58	3	0.27	6	2
John-Jules	ST	73		0.35	0.01	0	0.03	2	5
Hugill	ST	90		0.59	0.11	1	0.06	1	5
Brandon	DF	23		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	5
O'Hara	MF	23		0.16	0.00	0	−0.01	0	1
Daniëls	FW	17		0.00	0.01	1	0.00	2	4
McKenzie	MF	0		0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Iredale	Mayor	28
Mayor	Iredale	24
Iredale	Hanley	20
Hanley	Kerr	20
Hanley	Iredale	19

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
McCarthy	Stryjek	13
Schjønning-Larsen	Stanger	9
Lowery	Kamara	8
Stanger	Schjønning-Larsen	8
Kamara	McCarthy	7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

Against its average of 5 matches

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Hibernian
Top six	77%	67%	−10
11th	1%	2%	+1
Bottom	<1%	1%	+1
Kilmarnock
Top six	6%	10%	+4
11th	20%	15%	−5
Bottom	30%	21%	−9
St. Johnstone
Top six	18%	18%	0
Bottom	17%	20%	+3

From the forecast before the match (15 September 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.92	0.96
Win	59%	18%
Expected Points	2.01	0.76
Clean sheet	38%	15%

Hibernian 59%Draw 23%Kilmarnock 18%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

From the forecast as it stood on 15 September 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Hibernian win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
Hibernian
Top six	77%	82%	74%	67%
11th	1%	1%	2%	2%
Bottom	<1%	<1%	1%	1%
Kilmarnock
Top six	6%	4%	7%	10%
11th	20%	21%	21%	15%
Bottom	30%	34%	26%	21%
St. Johnstone
Top six	18%	17%	18%	18%
Bottom	17%	16%	18%	20%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Position	8th	12th
Played	5	5
Won, drawn, lost	2–⁠0–⁠3	0–⁠1–⁠4
Points	6 (1.20 per game)	1 (0.20 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.42	0.62
Goals	7–⁠9	4–⁠14
xG per game	1.81–⁠1.72	0.91–⁠2.58
Home: points, xG per game	0.00, 1.71–⁠1.52	0.00, 0.84–⁠3.26
Away: points, xG per game	2.00, 1.87–⁠1.85	0.50, 1.02–⁠1.55
Manager	David Gray (83)	Neil McCann (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Hibernian		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−2%	+4%	−25%	+48%
Counter-attacks	+21%	−12%	−71%	+112%
Set pieces	−5%	−34%	−28%	+37%
Penalties	+78%	+66%	−94%	+11%
Headers	−45%	+4%	−31%	+133%
Left side	+10%	+9%	−40%	+60%
Centre	−10%	−2%	−36%	+90%
Right side	+8%	−30%	−22%	−2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+10%−2%Centre−10%+90%Right side+8%+60%Open play−2%+48%Counter-attacks+21%+112%Set pieces−5%+37%Headers−45%+133%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−40%−30%Centre−36%−2%Right side−22%+9%Open play−25%+4%Counter-attacks−71%−12%Set pieces−28%−34%Headers−31%+4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.81xG0.91

1.72xG against2.58

48%Possession45%

16.6Shots10.4

13.6Shots against18.0

4.4Shots on target4.0

2.6Big chances1.6

30.0Touches in the opposition box20.6

430Passes417

80%Pass accuracy79%

6.2Corners5.0

50%Field tilt43%

43.2Final-third entries42.0

13.8Box entries10.4

14.6Passes per defensive action16.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	31	1.47	2.00
Ahead	28	1.55	2.02
Behind	32	2.35	1.19

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	30	0.88	2.25
Ahead	3	0.39	1.63
Behind	57	0.96	2.80

xG by period

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.21	0.12	1–1
16–30	0.23	0.21	2–1
31–45	0.38	0.50	0–3
46–60	0.40	0.34	2–0
61–75	0.27	0.12	1–1
76–90	0.31	0.42	1–3

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.23	0.39	0–3
16–30	0.08	0.46	0–1
31–45	0.20	0.47	1–4
46–60	0.20	0.44	3–2
61–75	0.08	0.37	0–2
76–90	0.12	0.44	0–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
4 April 2026	Hibernian	3–0	Kilmarnock	xG 2.30–0.60
3 January 2026	Kilmarnock	1–3	Hibernian	xG 0.44–2.78
10 August 2025	Hibernian	2–2	Kilmarnock	xG 1.77–0.94
15 March 2025	Kilmarnock	1–1	Hibernian	xG 0.64–2.01
29 December 2024	Hibernian	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 2.32–0.25
1 September 2024	Kilmarnock	1–1	Hibernian	xG 2.54–0.44

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 9, Kilmarnock won 1, and 5 were drawn. Goals 24–11 and xG 1.54–0.86 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Klidje	8	840	3	1	0.63	0.03
Campbell	5	768	4	3	0.45	0.15
Boyle	30	2,334	9	3	0.41	0.13
Šuto	3	574	4	1	0.37	0.08

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Hugill	17	1,541	9	2	0.40	0.08
John-Jules	16	1,395	8	2	0.38	0.07
Kiltie	33	2,769	5	7	0.16	0.20
Daniëls	5	478	2	0	0.20	0.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.