Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 1–0 Rangers

Sunday 20 October 2024, 12:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 8 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 8,924

Kilmarnock Watkins 87'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRangers
Goals10
xG0.631.14
Expected Points0.901.76

Kilmarnock 19%Draw 34%Rangers 47%

Most likely score 0–1, 20%. Final score 1–0, 10%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+11%4%10%8%2%3%4%3%16%20%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Vassell, 72'Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, 73'Watson on for Donnelly, 87'McKenzie on for Kennedy and Burroughs on for Watkins, 90+6'Raskin on for Barron and Balogun on for Propper, 63'Igamane on for Dessers, 71'Kasanwirjo on for Cerny and Dowell on for Lawrence, 79'Watkins 87'Rangers 1.14Kilmarnock 0.6300.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Vassell, 72'Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, 73'Watson on for Donnelly, 87'McKenzie on for Kennedy and Burroughs on for Watkins, 90+6'Raskin on for Barron and Balogun on for Propper, 63'Igamane on for Dessers, 71'Kasanwirjo on for Cerny and Dowell on for Lawrence, 79'Watkins 87'1.140.63KilmarnockRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRangers

0.63 −0.87xG1.14 −0.76
0.64 −0.47xG on target0.37 −1.54
10 −3Shots15 0
3 +0.1Shots on target3 −2.7
1 −1.3Big chances2 −1.3
14 −6Touches in the opposition box25 −4
32% −13Possession68% +4
264 −47Passes567 +12
58% −10Pass accuracy81% −4
35% −5Field tilt65% −3
20 −14Final-third entries58 +8
7 −2.1Box entries14 −2.3
17.2 +1Passes per defensive action10.5 0
1 −5.0Corners6 +0.7
21 +8Tackles14 −4
12 +4.9Interceptions12 +3.6
26 −5Clearances13 −7
3 0.0Saves1 −1.0
12 +2Fouls13 +1
3 +1.9Offsides2 +1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 5', 0.13 xGKennedy 64', 0.12 xGVassell 40', 0.09 xGKennedy 70', 0.08 xGVassell 44', 0.05 xGWatkins 17', 0.04 xGWatkins 64', 0.03 xGVassell 64', 0.02 xGVassell 64', 0.01 xGWatkins 87', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals68%0.43 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.43 xG, 1 goal17%0.11 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals14%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Propper 52', 0.31 xGDessers 52', 0.17 xGSouttar 70', 0.13 xGBajrami 57', 0.12 xGIgamane 90+4', 0.12 xGCerny 67', 0.06 xGJefte 25', 0.05 xGBalogun 70', 0.05 xGCerny 25', 0.03 xGBajrami 49', 0.03 xGCerny 18', 0.02 xGPropper 27', 0.02 xGDessers 52', 0.02 xGCerny 61', 0.02 xGTavernier 68', 0.00 xG42%0.48 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals15%0.17 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals33%0.38 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals8%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRangers

0.46 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.45 9 shots, 0 goals
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.09 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.69 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
87 min (91%) · Kilmarnock 0.63, Rangers 1.02 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
9 min (9%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Rangers 0.12 xG

Line-ups

20561731182210923McCrorieMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongLyonsDonnellyKennedyVassellWatkinsYellow cardGoal73'87'90+6'72'90+6'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes1254228101114189ButlandTavernierSouttarPropperJefteBarronDiomandeLawrenceBajramiCernyDessersYellow cardYellow cardYellow card63'63'79'79'71'Rangers 4-2-3-1Philippe Clement

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 72' Anderson for Vassell
  • 73' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong
  • 87' Watson for Donnelly · 1 assist
  • 90+6' Burroughs for Watkins
  • 90+6' McKenzie for Kennedy

Rangers substitutes

  • 63' Balogun for Propper
  • 63' Raskin for Barron
  • 71' Igamane for Dessers
  • 79' Kasanwirjo for Cerny
  • 79' Dowell for Lawrence

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0210.0841
MayoRB900.000.0100.0216
DeasCB900.000.0000.05515
FindlayCB900.000.0000.0334
NdabaLB900.000.000−0.01211
ArmstrongRM730.000.0410.0864
LyonsCM900.000.000−0.0119
DonnellyCM870.000.010−0.0122
Kennedy LM900.200.5610.1932
VassellST720.170.1120.0722
WatkinsST9010.260.021−0.0105
AndersonFW180.000.0000.0000
Mackay-StevenDF170.000.0000.0112
WatsonMF310.000.0610.0811
BurroughsDF00.000.0000.0000
McKenzieMF00.000.0000.0000

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0210
Tavernier RB900.000.1920.1898
SouttarCB900.130.0110.10108
Propper CB630.330.0310.17114
JefteLB900.050.0610.0955
BarronDM630.000.0210.0664
DiomandeDM900.000.0300.0542
Lawrence RW790.000.010−0.0240
BajramiAM900.140.0700.0370
CernyLW790.130.2210.0871
DessersST710.180.0000.0900
BalogunDF270.050.0000.0548
RaskinMF270.000.0100.0121
IgamaneFW190.120.0100.0110
KasanwirjoDF110.000.0000.0013
DowellFW110.000.0710.0310

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Lyons: 3 passesDeas and Donnelly: 3 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 3 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 3 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 3 passesDonnelly and Kennedy: 3 passesNdaba and Lyons: 4 passesDonnelly and Lyons: 4 passesMcCrorie and Vassell: 5 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 5 passesNdaba and Vassell: 5 passesWatkins and Vassell: 5 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesNdaba and Donnelly: 7 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 7 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 7 passesMayo and Armstrong: 8 passesMcCrorie: 8 completed passesMayo: 13 completed passesDeas: 7 completed passesFindlay: 7 completed passesNdaba: 16 completed passesArmstrong: 22 completed passesDonnelly: 16 completed passesLyons: 12 completed passesKennedy: 7 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 4 completed passes20561731122810239McCrorieMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongDonnellyLyonsKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

Jefte and Diomande: 6 passesDiomande and Cerny: 6 passesDiomande and Lawrence: 6 passesCerny and Bajrami: 6 passesLawrence and Bajrami: 6 passesButland and Propper: 7 passesSouttar and Diomande: 7 passesSouttar and Cerny: 7 passesJefte and Lawrence: 9 passesTavernier and Diomande: 10 passesPropper and Barron: 11 passesPropper and Diomande: 11 passesSouttar and Barron: 12 passesSouttar and Lawrence: 12 passesJefte and Bajrami: 14 passesButland and Souttar: 15 passesTavernier and Souttar: 15 passesPropper and Bajrami: 15 passesPropper and Jefte: 16 passesDiomande and Bajrami: 16 passesPropper and Lawrence: 17 passesTavernier and Cerny: 23 passesPropper and Souttar: 27 passesButland: 17 completed passesTavernier: 38 completed passesPropper: 56 completed passesSouttar: 56 completed passesJefte: 29 completed passesBarron: 29 completed passesDiomande: 34 completed passesCerny: 24 completed passesLawrence: 31 completed passesBajrami: 34 completed passesDessers: 4 completed passes1245228101811149ButlandTavernierPropperSouttarJefteBarronDiomandeCernyLawrenceBajramiDessersStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaKennedy7
DonnellyLyons6
LyonsArmstrong5
McCrorieVassell5
NdabaDonnelly5

Rangers

FromToPasses
ButlandSouttar16
SouttarPropper15
TavernierCerny13
PropperSouttar12
JefteBajrami12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+1.76−3.910+2.65−0.15+0.612+4.67+2.09+3.43−2.75−0.17+3.18+5.68+4.38+4.04+1.16+2.72+0.42−2.33−0.92+0.11−0.710.01+0.34+1.71+0.60−0.40−0.41+0.61+0.414−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Rangers

3+0.11−2.97+0.45−1.68+2.34+0.15+0.47+0.46+2.16+2.32+1.07+4.16−0.711+5.71−1.94+1.02−1.13−2.33−0.12−0.61−0.92−0.37+3.30−1.40−0.40−0.90−0.40−0.18−5.65−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.040.010.030.030.020.010.010.010.010.08−0.020.01−0.01−0.010.010.05−0.010.25LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.010.020.020.030.030.030.050.050.040.040.030.040.04−0.010.030.010.03−0.050.030.080.100.080.070.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.24 → 1.23Rangers2.04 → 2.00Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39 → 1.38Rangers0.87 → 0.87

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six39%53%+14
11th7%4%−3
Bottom5%3%−2
Rangers
Title11%7%−4
Celtic
Title89%93%+4
St. Mirren
Top six22%21%−1
11th14%15%+1
Bottom12%12%0

From the forecast before the match (20 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRangers
Expected goals0.941.90
Win18%59%
Expected Points0.762.01
Clean sheet15%39%

Kilmarnock 18%Draw 23%Rangers 59%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 52%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%7%3%1%5%6%3%1%3%5%5%3%1%2%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRangers win
Kilmarnock
Top six39%53%42%34%
11th7%4%6%8%
Bottom5%3%4%6%
Rangers
Title11%7%8%14%
Celtic
Title89%93%92%86%
St. Mirren
Top six22%21%19%23%
11th14%15%14%13%
Bottom12%12%11%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–25 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.72–0.62
  2. D3–328 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.31–2.73
  3. D2–214 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–1.53
  4. D1–11 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.54–0.44
  5. L0–225 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.66
  6. L0–311 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.74–1.79

Rangers

  1. W2–06 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.57–0.36
  2. W1–029 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.78–2.16
  3. W1–015 SepDundee United (A)xG 0.99–0.31
  4. L0–31 SepCeltic (A)xG 1.14–1.55
  5. W6–024 AugRoss County (H)xG 3.76–0.24
  6. W2–110 AugMotherwell (H)xG 3.30–0.71

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRangers
Position10th3rd
Played77
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠3–⁠35–⁠1–⁠1
Points6 (0.86 per game)16 (2.29 per game)
Expected Points per game1.271.87
Goals9–⁠1712–⁠4
xG per game1.50–⁠1.701.90–⁠0.95
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 2.20–⁠1.653.00, 2.60–⁠0.87
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.99–⁠1.731.33, 0.96–⁠1.06
ManagerDerek McInnes (83)Philippe Clement (37)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.24, 6thRangers2.04, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39, 6thRangers0.87, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.24Rangers attack: 2.042.041.24RangersKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.39Rangers defence: 0.871.390.87

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+38%+70%−50%
Counter-attacks−88%−98%+104%−15%
Set pieces+104%−21%−8%average
Penalties−7%+180%−100%−7%
Headers+42%−34%+38%−30%
Left side−11%−17%+8%−7%
Centre+22%+24%+70%−46%
Right side+9%+1%+52%−32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side−11%−32%Centre+22%−46%Right side+9%−7%Open play−14%−50%Counter-attacks−88%−15%Set pieces+104%averageHeaders+42%−30%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+8%+1%Centre+70%+24%Right side+52%−17%Open play+70%+38%Counter-attacks+104%−98%Set pieces−8%−21%Headers+38%−34%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRangers

1.50xG1.90
1.70xG against0.95
45%Possession64%
13.0Shots15.3
15.4Shots against10.7
2.9Shots on target5.7
2.3Big chances3.3
19.7Touches in the opposition box28.6
311Passes555
68%Pass accuracy85%
6.0Corners5.3
40%Field tilt68%
34.1Final-third entries49.7
9.1Box entries16.3
16.5Passes per defensive action10.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.391.92
Ahead52.893.71
Behind561.441.41

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level312.160.78
Ahead481.910.88
Behind101.021.75

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.201–2
16–300.050.320–4
31–450.130.430–3
46–600.150.222–2
61–750.350.142–1
76–900.590.394–5

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.470.112–0
16–300.380.092–2
31–450.150.283–1
46–600.260.172–0
61–750.290.202–1
76–900.350.091–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTO'Hara 4McCrorie 3Lyons 2Armstrong 2Burroughs 2Mayo 4Wright 2Findlay 6Deas 1Ndaba 1Ndaba 3Lyons 2Deas 1Armstrong 4Watson 1Wright 1Watson 4Donnelly 2Watkins 1Polworth 4Lyons 1Kennedy 6Murray 1Vassell 6Cameron 1Watkins 3Watson 1Donnelly 14-4-2 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 7Tavernier 7Souttar 7Propper 5Balogun 1Davies 1Jefte 5Yilmaz 2Barron 4Sterling 2Dowell 1Diomande 5Raskin 2Cerny 5Cortés 1Wright 1Lawrence 4Barron 2Bajrami 1McCausland 2Matondo 2Lawrence 1Dessers 6Igamane 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-3-3 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 May 2024Rangers4–1KilmarnockxG 4.90–0.39
28 February 2024Kilmarnock1–2RangersxG 1.36–0.73
2 January 2024Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 2.27–1.55
5 August 2023Kilmarnock1–0RangersxG 0.52–1.36
4 March 2023Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 3.55–0.79
18 January 2023Kilmarnock2–3RangersxG 0.79–1.49

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Rangers won 9, and 0 were drawn. Goals 7–21 and xG 0.65–2.33 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kennedy6522210.200.33
Vassell6451000.390.04
Armstrong6492020.070.16
Watson6481200.150.01

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dessers6495310.740.02
Tavernier7630020.090.30
Jefte5450000.020.15
Souttar7630000.050.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.