Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 2–4 Rangers

Wednesday 26 February 2025, 20:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 28 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 8,751

Kilmarnock Wright 11', Lyons 14'

Rangers Cerny 35', Dessers 53', 62', Bajrami 85'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRangers
Goals24
xG1.381.95
Expected Points0.981.76

Kilmarnock 24%Draw 26%Rangers 50%

Most likely score 1–2, 12%. Final score 2–4, 2%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%5%6%4%1%4%8%3%3%8%5%2%1%3%3%2%12%12%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDonnelly on for Armstrong, 61'Polworth on for Magennis, 70'Watson on for Deas and Cameron on for Watkins, 81'Yilmaz on for Nsiala, 31'Lawrence on for Hagi and Bajrami on for Igamane, 78'McCausland on for Cerny, 87'Wright 11'Lyons 14'Cerny 35'Dessers 53'Dessers 62'Bajrami 85'Rangers 1.95Kilmarnock 1.3801230153045607590HTDonnelly on for Armstrong, 61'Polworth on for Magennis, 70'Watson on for Deas and Cameron on for Watkins, 81'Yilmaz on for Nsiala, 31'Lawrence on for Hagi and Bajrami on for Igamane, 78'McCausland on for Cerny, 87'Wright 11'Lyons 14'Cerny 35'Dessers 53'Dessers 62'Bajrami 85'1.951.38KilmarnockRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRangers

1.38 +0.02xG1.95 −0.16
1.88 +0.70xG on target2.88 +0.75
11 −2Shots14 −5
4 +0.1Shots on target7 +0.3
3 +1.0Big chances5 +2.1
18 −4Touches in the opposition box22 −10
38% −6Possession62% −2
260 −57Passes435 −116
64% −3Pass accuracy80% −4
51% +7Field tilt49% −24
44 +12Final-third entries47 −11
8 −3Box entries13 −5
20.7 +6Passes per defensive action12.5 +2
6 +0.2Corners4 −3.0
16 +1Tackles10 −6
3 −5.9Interceptions8 0.0
36 0Clearances60 +38
2 −0.7Saves2 0.0
8 −2Fouls9 −2
3 +1.9Offsides3 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 20', 0.50 xGWatkins 23', 0.25 xGWales 49', 0.09 xGArmstrong 47', 0.05 xGArmstrong 29', 0.04 xGNdaba 75', 0.04 xGCameron 90+1', 0.03 xGLyons 2', 0.02 xGCameron 90+4', 0.02 xGWright 11', 0.20 xG, goalLyons 14', 0.13 xG, goal15%0.20 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 1 goal61%0.84 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.84 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals18%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Dessers 33', 0.45 xGHagi 33', 0.24 xGBajrami 90+2', 0.10 xGIgamane 4', 0.09 xGCerny 22', 0.08 xGHagi 53', 0.08 xGDiomande 42', 0.07 xGCerny 48', 0.06 xGBajrami 90+2', 0.04 xGIgamane 77', 0.02 xGBajrami 85', 0.26 xG, goalDessers 53', 0.17 xG, goalCerny 35', 0.14 xG, goalDessers 62', 0.14 xG, goal23%0.45 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.45 xG, 0 goals54%1.05 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.05 xG, 4 goals15%0.29 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals7%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRangers

1.12 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.51 12 shots, 2 goals
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.26 1 shot, 1 goal
0.20 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.17 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
20 min (21%) · Kilmarnock 0.22, Rangers 0.23 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
42 min (45%) · Kilmarnock 1.06, Rangers 1.29 xG
Rangers ahead
32 min (34%) · Kilmarnock 0.10, Rangers 0.42 xG

Line-ups

1453116816152423O'HaraWrightMayoNdabaArmstrongDeasLyonsMagennisMurrayWalesWatkinsGoalGoalYellow card61'81'70'81'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes124192210431829309ButlandTavernierPropperNsialaJefteDiomandeRaskinCernyIgamaneHagiDessersYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card31'87'78'78'Rangers 4-2-3-1Barry Ferguson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 61' Donnelly for Armstrong
  • 70' Polworth for Magennis
  • 81' Watson for Deas · yellow card 83'
  • 81' Cameron for Watkins

Rangers substitutes

  • 31' Yilmaz for Nsiala · 1 assist
  • 78' Lawrence for Hagi · yellow card 83'
  • 78' Bajrami for Igamane · goal 85'
  • 87' McCausland for Cerny

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0222
WrightCB9010.200.0000.02212
MayoCB900.000.0100.0569
NdabaCB900.040.0300.0026
ArmstrongRWB610.090.2310.0753
DeasCM810.000.0000.0337
LyonsCM9010.160.0910.1369
Magennis CM700.000.0210.0763
MurrayLWB9010.000.3030.2553
WalesST900.090.3610.1841
WatkinsST810.750.0110.0002
DonnellyMF290.000.0000.0503
PolworthMF200.000.0100.0411
Watson MF90.000.0110.0320
CameronFW90.060.000−0.0110

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0871
TavernierRB9010.000.3220.07315
Propper CB900.000.0100.05520
NsialaCB310.000.0000.0012
JefteLB900.000.0420.101114
DiomandeDM9020.070.2320.17125
RaskinDM900.000.0200.0697
CernyRW8710.280.0400.1271
IgamaneAM780.110.7610.2451
Hagi LW780.320.0810.0454
Dessers ST9020.760.030−0.0203
YilmazDF5910.000.2610.1156
Lawrence MF120.000.0000.0000
BajramiFW1210.400.010−0.0311
McCauslandMF30.000.0900.1031

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Deas and Lyons: 3 passesMayo and Watkins: 3 passesNdaba and Armstrong: 3 passesArmstrong and Magennis: 3 passesMagennis and Murray: 3 passesMurray and Watkins: 3 passesMayo and Lyons: 4 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 4 passesWales and Watkins: 4 passesNdaba and Murray: 5 passesArmstrong and Wales: 5 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 5 passesArmstrong and Murray: 6 passesLyons and Wales: 6 passesMurray and Wales: 6 passesMagennis and Wales: 9 passesO'Hara: 5 completed passesWright: 3 completed passesDeas: 6 completed passesMayo: 9 completed passesNdaba: 8 completed passesArmstrong: 12 completed passesMagennis: 17 completed passesLyons: 13 completed passesMurray: 14 completed passesWales: 12 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passes1465311168152423O'HaraWrightDeasMayoNdabaArmstrongMagennisLyonsMurrayWalesWatkinsStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

Butland and Igamane: 3 passesNsiala and Hagi: 3 passesRaskin and Diomande: 3 passesRaskin and Hagi: 3 passesDiomande and Hagi: 3 passesCerny and Hagi: 3 passesTavernier and Raskin: 4 passesPropper and Raskin: 4 passesJefte and Raskin: 4 passesJefte and Dessers: 4 passesButland and Propper: 5 passesTavernier and Propper: 5 passesTavernier and Diomande: 5 passesJefte and Hagi: 6 passesPropper and Nsiala: 7 passesButland: 8 completed passesTavernier: 11 completed passesPropper: 14 completed passesNsiala: 9 completed passesJefte: 10 completed passesRaskin: 12 completed passesDiomande: 10 completed passesCerny: 4 completed passesIgamane: 3 completed passesHagi: 10 completed passesDessers: 5 completed passes124192243101829309ButlandTavernierPropperNsialaJefteRaskinDiomandeCernyIgamaneHagiDessersStarters until 31' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsWales5
O'HaraWright5
MagennisWales5
MurrayWales4
WalesMagennis4

Rangers

FromToPasses
PropperTavernier12
JefteRaskin11
ButlandPropper11
TavernierPropper10
YilmazTavernier10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−2.816−0.94−3.42−3.210+4.310+2.813+6.38+1.35−1.42−3.440.07+3.66+1.31−4.11−2.33−0.75+2.92−1.43−1.43+1.13+1.40−0.82+0.60−2.91+0.40−0.41+0.21+0.61+0.42−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Rangers

8+4.510+5.49−2.013+6.59+3.64−1.68+2.86+1.114+7.414+6.06+0.49+4.54+0.95+0.27+0.82−2.83−0.41−1.61−2.32−2.63−0.10−2.13+1.120.02−0.52+0.90−0.60−0.60−0.10−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.010.010.050.030.020.020.030.040.060.040.020.030.05−0.020.01−0.01−0.030.160.180.20LessMore

Rangers

0.010.040.010.020.020.030.010.030.080.040.030.030.060.050.030.010.010.050.050.07−0.05−0.010.100.090.100.110.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.22 → 1.23Rangers1.97 → 1.98Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.34 → 1.37Rangers0.89 → 0.90

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six8%4%−4
11th6%8%+2
Bottom1%1%0
Dundee FC
11th50%49%−1
Bottom22%23%+1
St. Mirren
Top six36%37%+1

From the forecast before the match (26 February 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRangers
Expected goals0.961.77
Win20%56%
Expected Points0.831.92
Clean sheet17%38%

Kilmarnock 20%Draw 24%Rangers 56%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%6%6%3%3%5%5%3%1%1%2%2%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 February 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRangers win
Kilmarnock
Top six8%19%8%4%
11th6%3%5%8%
Bottom1%<1%<1%1%
Dundee FC
11th50%54%51%49%
Bottom22%22%22%23%
St. Mirren
Top six36%33%35%37%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–122 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.08
  2. W3–115 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.40–0.67
  3. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.39–1.46
  4. L2–325 JanHearts (A)xG 1.05–2.51
  5. D0–08 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.72–0.39
  6. L0–15 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.56–1.15

Rangers

  1. L0–222 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.81–1.49
  2. W3–116 FebHearts (A)xG 1.58–2.61
  3. W4–02 FebRoss County (H)xG 3.47–0.12
  4. W3–126 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.30–1.05
  5. W3–015 JanAberdeen (H)xG 3.34–0.29
  6. W3–112 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 3.03–0.43

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRangers
Position10th2nd
Played2727
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠7–⁠1217–⁠5–⁠5
Points31 (1.15 per game)56 (2.07 per game)
Expected Points per game1.312.03
Goals31–⁠4254–⁠22
xG per game1.36–⁠1.472.11–⁠0.88
Home: points, xG per game1.69, 1.87–⁠1.122.64, 2.75–⁠0.58
Away: points, xG per game0.64, 0.88–⁠1.791.46, 1.41–⁠1.21
ManagerDerek McInnes (103)Barry Ferguson (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.22, 5thRangers1.97, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.34, 6thRangers0.89, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 1.22Rangers attack: 1.971.971.22RangersKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.34Rangers defence: 0.891.340.89

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+5%+69%−46%
Counter-attacks−43%−20%+168%−64%
Set pieces+24%+19%+6%−23%
Penalties+17%−30%−77%−7%
Headers−2%+1%+6%−30%
Left side+4%−3%+33%−28%
Centre−13%+13%+51%−41%
Right side−1%+1%+105%−56%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side+4%−56%Centre−13%−41%Right side−1%−28%Open play−15%−46%Counter-attacks−43%−64%Set pieces+24%−23%Headers−2%−30%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+33%+1%Centre+51%+13%Right side+105%−3%Open play+69%+5%Counter-attacks+168%−20%Set pieces+6%+19%Headers+6%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRangers

1.36xG2.11
1.47xG against0.88
44%Possession64%
12.8Shots19.4
13.0Shots against9.0
3.9Shots on target6.7
2.0Big chances2.9
22.1Touches in the opposition box32.5
317Passes552
67%Pass accuracy84%
5.8Corners7.0
44%Field tilt72%
32.4Final-third entries58.0
10.6Box entries17.9
14.9Passes per defensive action10.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.371.47
Ahead161.531.25
Behind281.241.59

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level362.150.92
Ahead422.190.76
Behind121.681.18

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.243–3
16–300.190.203–6
31–450.160.222–7
46–600.170.257–7
61–750.280.227–7
76–900.330.349–12

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.350.138–1
16–300.300.159–6
31–450.290.208–5
46–600.360.127–3
61–750.390.1814–4
76–900.420.108–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 18O'Hara 9Lyons 9Mayo 6Armstrong 4Mayo 15Wright 14Deas 12Findlay 9Ndaba 11Deas 5Lyons 4Armstrong 13Wright 3Murray 2Watson 13Murray 3Watkins 1Polworth 11Donnelly 7Lyons 7Kennedy 10Murray 8Ndaba 3Vassell 19Wales 4Cameron 2Watkins 17Anderson 5Donnelly 24-4-2 in 12 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (12), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 21Kelly 6Tavernier 20Yilmaz 5Sterling 1Souttar 16Sterling 5Propper 18Nsiala 7Balogun 7Jefte 23Yilmaz 3Kasanwirjo 1Diomande 16Barron 12Hagi 3Raskin 18Dowell 2Cerny 21Lawrence 2Cortés 2Diomande 6Bajrami 6Lawrence 4Hagi 9Bajrami 6Igamane 2Dessers 13Igamane 11Danilo 24-2-3-1 in 23 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (23), 4-3-3 (3), 4-1-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 December 2024Rangers6–0KilmarnockxG 4.60–0.09
20 October 2024Kilmarnock1–0RangersxG 0.63–1.14
5 May 2024Rangers4–1KilmarnockxG 4.90–0.39
28 February 2024Kilmarnock1–2RangersxG 1.36–0.73
2 January 2024Rangers3–1KilmarnockxG 2.27–1.55
5 August 2023Kilmarnock1–0RangersxG 0.52–1.36

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 2, Rangers won 10, and 0 were drawn. Goals 8–27 and xG 0.60–2.42 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8853800.760.06
Kennedy11954410.180.32
Watkins181,577410.360.05
Vassell191,425210.320.09

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Danilo6665530.980.21
Cerny221,8411020.360.34
Igamane161,371910.510.18
Dessers141,225820.620.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.