Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock 1–1 Hearts

Saturday 19 September 2026, 17:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 7 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Duncan Nicolson · Attendance 7,452

Kilmarnock McCart 16' (og)

Hearts Kingsley 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals11
xG0.391.92
Expected Points0.352.46

Kilmarnock 5%Draw 19%Hearts 76%

Most likely score 0–2, 20%. Final score 1–1, 9%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%12%5%1%3%9%9%5%2%1%2%18%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTTshibola on for Rice, 67'O'Hara on for John-Jules, 76'McKenzie on for Lowery, 82'Milne on for Findlay, 32'Williams on for Braga, Ageu on for Magnússon, and Guendouz on for McPake, 59'Kerjota on for Miller, 69'McCart 16' (og)Kingsley 86'Hearts 1.92Kilmarnock 0.3900.511.520153045607590HTTshibola on for Rice, 67'O'Hara on for John-Jules, 76'McKenzie on for Lowery, 82'Milne on for Findlay, 32'Williams on for Braga, Ageu on for Magnússon, and Guendouz on for McPake, 59'Kerjota on for Miller, 69'McCart 16' (og)Kingsley 86'1.920.39KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

0.39 −0.74xG1.92 +0.12
0.00 −1.14xG on target1.34 −0.65
4 −7Shots17 0
0 −4.5Shots on target3 −2.7
0 −2.2Big chances4 +1.7
14 −7Touches in the opposition box35 +7
33% −11Possession67% +14
274 −128Passes538 +104
66% −12Pass accuracy83% +4
28% −12Field tilt72% +14
17 −24Final-third entries61 +27
6 −4Box entries26 +12
17.2 0Passes per defensive action6.8 −7
2 −3.3Corners6 −1.8
16 +1Tackles25 +9
7 −1.8Interceptions9 +1.7
32 +4Clearances26 −3
2 −2.5Saves0 −1.5
13 +1Fouls17 +5
0 −0.8Offsides0 −1.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Ring 55', 0.13 xGKiltie 44', 0.09 xGJohn-Jules 46', 0.08 xGJohn-Jules 47', 0.08 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%0.31 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals21%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

McPake 45+1', 0.32 xGWilliams 80', 0.30 xGWilson 36', 0.29 xGBraga 48', 0.12 xGMiller 64', 0.10 xGMiller 11', 0.08 xGKerjota 90+3', 0.08 xGBraga 39', 0.07 xGMilne 42', 0.07 xGGuendouz 60', 0.07 xGGuendouz 84', 0.07 xGGuendouz 69', 0.06 xGMiller 8', 0.04 xGBraga 25', 0.04 xGGuendouz 61', 0.04 xGBraga 32', 0.03 xGKingsley 86', 0.12 xG, goal33%0.63 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.63 xG, 0 goals31%0.60 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.60 xG, 1 goal20%0.39 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.39 xG, 0 goals16%0.30 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

0.26 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.12 10 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.18 2 shots, 0 goals
0.13 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.62 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Hearts 0.20 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
71 min (76%) · Kilmarnock 0.39, Hearts 1.72 xG

Line-ups

122414218184911109FerrieBrandonMcCarthyStangerSchjønning-LarsenRingLoweryRiceKiltieJohn-JulesHugillYellow cardYellow card82'67'76'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Neil McCann12517377822152110ReusBorchgrevinkMcCartFindlayKingsleyMillerMendyMagnússonMcPakeWilsonBragaYellow cardOwn goalGoalYellow card32'69'59'59'59'Hearts 4-4-2Wouter Vrancken

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 67' Tshibola for Rice
  • 76' O'Hara for John-Jules
  • 82' McKenzie for Lowery

Hearts substitutes

  • 32' Milne for Findlay
  • 59' Ageu for Magnússon
  • 59' Guendouz for McPake
  • 59' Williams for Braga
  • 69' Kerjota for Miller

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FerrieGK900.000.0000.0003
BrandonRB900.000.3810.0835
McCarthy CB900.000.0000.0008
StangerCB900.000.0300.03311
Schjønning-Larsen LB900.000.3210.1446
RingRM900.130.0100.0342
LoweryCM820.000.000−0.0123
RiceCM670.000.0100.0015
KiltieLM900.090.0300.0213
John-JulesST760.170.0610.0514
HugillST900.000.0000.0023
TshibolaMF230.000.0100.0225
O'HaraMF140.000.0100.0313
McKenzieMF80.000.000−0.0300

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ReusGK900.000.0000.0102
Borchgrevink RB900.000.2610.2169
McCartCB900.000.0310.21199
FindlayCB320.000.0300.1073
Kingsley LB9010.120.0920.291012
MillerRM690.220.1310.22112
MendyCM900.000.0110.08117
MagnússonCM590.000.000−0.0212
McPakeLM590.320.0930.1262
WilsonST900.290.013−0.0233
BragaST590.270.1510.0513
MilneDF580.070.0210.0477
AgeuMF310.000.0100.0130
GuendouzMF310.240.010−0.0200
WilliamsFW310.300.0000.0101
KerjotaFW210.080.2510.0791

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Ferrie and Stanger: 4 passesBrandon and Ring: 4 passesMcCarthy and Ring: 4 passesStanger and Lowery: 4 passesStanger and Rice: 4 passesLowery and Rice: 4 passesLowery and Ring: 4 passesLowery and John-Jules: 4 passesLowery and Kiltie: 4 passesRing and John-Jules: 4 passesRing and Kiltie: 4 passesBrandon and Lowery: 5 passesJohn-Jules and Kiltie: 5 passesKiltie and Hugill: 5 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Kiltie: 6 passesBrandon and John-Jules: 7 passesStanger and Schjønning-Larsen: 7 passesRice and Kiltie: 7 passesFerrie and McCarthy: 8 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Rice: 8 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lowery: 9 passesMcCarthy and Lowery: 11 passesSchjønning-Larsen and John-Jules: 12 passesFerrie: 9 completed passesBrandon: 15 completed passesMcCarthy: 17 completed passesStanger: 14 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 30 completed passesLowery: 25 completed passesRice: 16 completed passesRing: 9 completed passesJohn-Jules: 12 completed passesKiltie: 17 completed passesHugill: 5 completed passes122414211849810119FerrieBrandonMcCarthyStangerSchjønning-LarsenLoweryRiceRingJohn-JulesKiltieHugillStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Reus and Borchgrevink: 3 passesMcCart and Braga: 3 passesBorchgrevink and Braga: 4 passesMcCart and Miller: 4 passesReus and Findlay: 5 passesFindlay and McPake: 5 passesReus and McCart: 6 passesBorchgrevink and Miller: 6 passesKingsley and McPake: 6 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 7 passesKingsley and Magnússon: 7 passesFindlay and McCart: 11 passesBorchgrevink and McCart: 15 passesReus: 10 completed passesBorchgrevink: 18 completed passesFindlay: 18 completed passesMcCart: 24 completed passesKingsley: 17 completed passesMiller: 5 completed passesMagnússon: 8 completed passesMendy: 5 completed passesMcPake: 5 completed passesBraga: 4 completed passesWilson: 4 completed passes12175372278151021ReusBorchgrevinkFindlayMcCartKingsleyMillerMagnússonMendyMcPakeBragaWilsonStarters until 32' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
Schjønning-LarsenJohn-Jules9
LoweryMcCarthy8
Schjønning-LarsenKiltie6
Schjønning-LarsenLowery6
McCarthyFerrie6

Hearts

FromToPasses
McCartBorchgrevink29
KingsleyMcCart26
BorchgrevinkMcCart24
BorchgrevinkMiller15
ReusMcCart12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−2.54−4.722+5.78+1.22−1.35−1.75−2.21−5.310+3.313+8.05+1.23−1.23−0.77+4.39+5.27+2.83−2.71−0.82−1.51−1.83+0.70−1.22−0.20−1.24+1.50−1.03+2.70−0.80−0.31+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Hearts

5+1.85−2.08+4.07+4.27+1.22−4.75−0.56−2.315+8.310+3.86+2.26+2.36+0.811+6.09+4.74+1.54+1.35+2.25−0.24+2.00−1.22+0.50−1.22−0.82+1.51+0.73+2.01+0.20−0.86−9.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.030.010.010.030.030.01−0.02−0.010.02−0.010.05−0.010.090.09LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.040.010.040.010.030.110.020.070.030.080.080.120.040.120.040.01−0.010.200.04−0.050.01−0.020.28LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.19 → 1.16Hearts1.48 → 1.49Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58 → 1.60Hearts1.13 → 1.12

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six12%11%−1
11th18%18%0
Bottom21%22%+1
Hearts
Top six90%91%+1
11th<1%<1%0

From the forecast before the match (19 September 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.191.53
Win29%45%
Expected Points1.131.60
Clean sheet22%31%

Kilmarnock 29%Draw 27%Hearts 45%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%8%4%2%7%5%2%5%7%5%3%1%2%3%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 19 September 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHearts win
Kilmarnock
Top six12%17%11%9%
11th18%15%18%21%
Bottom21%14%22%25%
Hearts
Top six90%85%91%94%
11th<1%1%<1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  2. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  3. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  4. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42
  5. L1–59 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.98–5.50
  6. L3–42 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.92–2.03

Hearts

  1. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  2. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  3. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  4. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28
  5. W4–09 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.21–0.58
  6. L1–21 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.83–2.66

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position12th3rd
Played66
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠44–⁠0–⁠2
Points4 (0.67 per game)12 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.831.65
Goals5–⁠1413–⁠7
xG per game1.13–⁠2.391.80–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 0.84–⁠3.263.00, 2.11–⁠0.76
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 1.41–⁠1.521.00, 1.49–⁠2.09
ManagerNeil McCann (22)Wouter Vrancken (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.19, 7thHearts1.48, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58, 12thHearts1.13, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepKilmarnock attack: 1.19Hearts attack: 1.481.481.19HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepKilmarnock defence: 1.58Hearts defence: 1.131.581.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+41%+10%−13%
Counter-attacks−86%+127%−42%−38%
Set pieces+1%+55%+25%+11%
Penalties−100%−17%+67%−17%
Headers−17%+155%−31%+18%
Left side−31%+74%+5%−43%
Centre−17%+86%+35%+26%
Right side−22%−7%−38%−37%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−31%−37%Centre−17%+26%Right side−22%−43%Open play−18%−13%Counter-attacks−86%−38%Set pieces+1%+11%Headers−17%+18%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+5%−7%Centre+35%+86%Right side−38%+74%Open play+10%+41%Counter-attacks−42%+127%Set pieces+25%+55%Headers−31%+155%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.13xG1.80
2.39xG against1.43
44%Possession53%
10.8Shots16.5
18.8Shots against10.7
4.5Shots on target5.7
2.2Big chances2.3
21.0Touches in the opposition box28.2
402Passes434
78%Pass accuracy79%
5.3Corners7.8
40%Field tilt57%
40.6Final-third entries33.6
10.2Box entries14.2
17.5Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level320.901.84
Ahead112.482.17
Behind480.962.80

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level231.931.71
Ahead501.571.41
Behind172.341.08

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.330–3
16–300.130.400–1
31–450.190.412–4
46–600.220.373–2
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.240.530–2

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.360.074–1
16–300.290.121–1
31–450.400.183–0
46–600.200.241–2
61–750.250.172–1
76–900.300.642–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTStryjek 6Kiltie 2Kamara 1Tshibola 1McCarthy 4Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 5Yfeko 2Deas 1Ring 3Brandon 2Meier 1Ring 2Tshibola 2O'Hara 2Lowery 5Rice 1Schjønning-L… 6Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 4John-Jules 1Lowery 1John-Jules 4Daniëls 1Hugill 6Clescenco 13-4-1-2 in 2 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 6Altena 6McEntee 4McCart 2Findlay 5Milne 1McCart 2Mendy 1Miller 1Spittal 3Magnússon 2Dhanda 1Mendy 4Renaud 1Miller 3Kerjota 3Braga 5Ba-Sy 1McPake 5Miller 1Wilson 4Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 March 2026Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.27–1.06
3 December 2025Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 2.19–1.80
18 October 2025Kilmarnock0–3HeartsxG 0.43–2.88
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05
15 December 2024Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.57–1.15

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Hearts won 5, and 5 were drawn. Goals 13–17 and xG 1.34–1.46 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie6529100.320.21
Hugill6540100.280.05
Lowery6528020.060.14
Schjønning-Larsen6524100.030.11

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga6522220.440.07
Altena6493000.030.10
Reus6540000.000.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.