Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk 2–1 Hearts

Tuesday 15 September 2026, 19:45 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 3 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 7,034

Falkirk Krauhaus 8', Eames 68'

Hearts Wilson 22'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkHearts
Goals21
xG2.141.79
Expected Points1.601.07

Falkirk 43%Draw 32%Hearts 25%

Most likely score 2–2, 18%. Final score 2–1, 13%.

Hearts goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+1%10%11%4%1%13%6%8%10%4%3%3%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTFodrey on for Krauhaus, 57'MacIver on for Murrell, 78'Sibbald on for Barbrook, 79'Meļņiks on for Eames, 86'Williams on for Wilson, 46'Mato on for McPake, Kingsley on for Milne, and Kerjota on for Miller, 73'Borchgrevink on for Findlay, 80'Krauhaus 8'Eames 68'Wilson 22'Falkirk 2.14Hearts 1.7901230153045607590HTFodrey on for Krauhaus, 57'MacIver on for Murrell, 78'Sibbald on for Barbrook, 79'Meļņiks on for Eames, 86'Williams on for Wilson, 46'Mato on for McPake, Kingsley on for Milne, and Kerjota on for Miller, 73'Borchgrevink on for Findlay, 80'Krauhaus 8'Eames 68'Wilson 22'2.141.79FalkirkHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkHearts

2.14 +1.35xG1.79 −0.02
1.66 +1.19xG on target1.15 −1.01
13 +3Shots9 −9
4 +1.6Shots on target4 −2.0
4 +3.0Big chances2 −0.4
20 −3Touches in the opposition box16 −15
41% −5Possession59% +7
348 −47Passes488 +64
76% +1Pass accuracy80% 0
40% −3Field tilt60% +3
34 −1Final-third entries24 −12
10 +2.2Box entries11 −3.8
15.3 +4Passes per defensive action12.1 −2
3 −1.4Corners4 −4.6
21 +3Tackles13 −3
8 −2.0Interceptions5 −2.8
35 +10Clearances16 −15
3 −1.6Saves2 +0.6
15 0Fouls13 +1
0 −1.8Offsides3 +1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Fodrey 90', 0.91 xGMurrell 63', 0.26 xGBarbrook 49', 0.15 xGEames 62', 0.13 xGNeilson 42', 0.06 xGRoss 90', 0.06 xGMurrell 71', 0.03 xGKrauhaus 31', 0.02 xGMurrell 33', 0.02 xGMurrell 51', 0.02 xGHenderson 18', 0.01 xGKrauhaus 8', 0.35 xG, goalEames 68', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals93%1.99 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.99 xG, 2 goals5%0.11 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Williams 55', 0.51 xGWilson 23', 0.19 xGMcPake 43', 0.05 xGDhanda 74', 0.05 xGMcPake 26', 0.04 xGAltena 45', 0.02 xGMiller 61', 0.02 xGMilne 61', 0.01 xGWilson 22', 0.90 xG, goal50%0.90 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.90 xG, 1 goal42%0.75 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals5%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkHearts

1.76 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.78 8 shots, 1 goal
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.36 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
54 min (60%) · Falkirk 1.13, Hearts 0.84 xG
Falkirk ahead
36 min (40%) · Falkirk 1.01, Hearts 0.95 xG

Line-ups

1922155316823284224BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannBarbrookSpencerRossKrauhausEamesMurrellYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card79'57'86'78'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn1235171831787101521ReusAltenaMcCartFindlayMilneDhandaMendyMillerBragaMcPakeWilsonYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal80'73'73'73'46'Hearts 4-2-3-1Wouter Vrancken

Falkirk substitutes

  • 57' Fodrey for Krauhaus · yellow card 75'
  • 78' MacIver for Murrell
  • 79' Sibbald for Barbrook
  • 86' Meļņiks for Eames

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Williams for Wilson
  • 73' Kingsley for Milne
  • 73' Mato for McPake
  • 73' Kerjota for Miller
  • 80' Borchgrevink for Findlay

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0551
Strain RB9020.000.3030.1069
NeilsonCB900.060.0000.04516
HendersonCB900.010.1910.19215
McCannLB900.000.0300.0755
Barbrook DM790.150.011−0.0133
SpencerDM900.000.0620.0694
RossRW900.060.0910.0942
KrauhausAM5710.360.0100.0113
Eames LW8610.250.0000.1553
MurrellST780.330.1320.0101
Fodrey FW330.910.0000.0113
MacIverFW120.000.0000.0000
SibbaldMF110.000.0000.0002
MeļņiksDF40.000.0000.0110

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ReusGK900.000.0000.0230
AltenaRB900.020.0300.0643
McCart CB900.000.0000.0339
FindlayCB800.000.0100.0795
MilneLB730.010.0200.0434
Dhanda DM900.050.2620.1524
MendyDM900.000.020−0.0435
MillerRW730.020.0220.0131
Braga AM900.000.0210.0351
McPakeLW7310.090.5820.2442
WilsonST4611.090.000−0.0300
WilliamsFW440.510.0710.0500
KingsleyDF170.000.0000.0111
MatoFW170.000.1400.0602
KerjotaFW170.000.0000.0120
BorchgrevinkDF100.000.0000.0340

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Bain and Eames: 4 passesStrain and Ross: 4 passesMcCann and Barbrook: 4 passesBarbrook and Murrell: 4 passesSpencer and Eames: 4 passesStrain and Krauhaus: 5 passesMcCann and Eames: 5 passesNeilson and Spencer: 6 passesHenderson and Barbrook: 6 passesHenderson and Eames: 6 passesBarbrook and Spencer: 6 passesSpencer and Krauhaus: 6 passesBain and Spencer: 7 passesNeilson and Henderson: 7 passesHenderson and McCann: 7 passesMcCann and Spencer: 7 passesStrain and Neilson: 10 passesBain and Henderson: 13 passesStrain and Barbrook: 14 passesHenderson and Spencer: 14 passesBain and Neilson: 18 passesBain: 20 completed passesStrain: 26 completed passesNeilson: 27 completed passesHenderson: 27 completed passesMcCann: 18 completed passesBarbrook: 20 completed passesSpencer: 30 completed passesRoss: 8 completed passesKrauhaus: 9 completed passesEames: 12 completed passesMurrell: 6 completed passes1922155316823284224BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannBarbrookSpencerRossKrauhausEamesMurrellStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Reus and Altena: 4 passesMcCart and Milne: 4 passesMcCart and Dhanda: 4 passesMcCart and Braga: 4 passesFindlay and Wilson: 5 passesMilne and Mendy: 5 passesMiller and Braga: 5 passesMcCart and Mendy: 6 passesFindlay and Dhanda: 7 passesMilne and McPake: 7 passesAltena and Mendy: 8 passesAltena and Miller: 10 passesAltena and Braga: 11 passesReus and Findlay: 13 passesReus and McCart: 13 passesMilne and Dhanda: 14 passesAltena and McCart: 15 passesFindlay and Milne: 15 passesFindlay and McCart: 16 passesReus: 18 completed passesAltena: 29 completed passesFindlay: 32 completed passesMcCart: 36 completed passesMilne: 29 completed passesDhanda: 17 completed passesMendy: 16 completed passesMiller: 10 completed passesBraga: 14 completed passesMcPake: 6 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passes1231751831787101521ReusAltenaFindlayMcCartMilneDhandaMendyMillerBragaMcPakeWilsonStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonBain14
NeilsonBain11
BainNeilson10
StrainBarbrook10
HendersonSpencer9

Hearts

FromToPasses
McCartAltena20
McCartFindlay16
FindlayReus15
AltenaMcCart14
ReusMcCart13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

6+2.43−3.816+2.66−1.03−0.412+4.89+3.65+0.46−1.67−0.45−3.44−1.41−2.07+3.27+1.03−3.07+2.43−0.230.06+0.63−0.40−1.42−0.41−1.04−0.62+1.00−0.820.01+0.21−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Hearts

0−3.85−2.412−4.04+1.45−1.04−3.29+0.811+5.23−3.81−3.46+2.87+2.250.02−2.82−0.64+1.60−3.43−2.620.00−1.43+1.83+2.27+5.00−0.60−0.40−1.20−1.01+0.20−4.82−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.030.030.010.030.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.030.030.040.020.030.010.010.010.010.090.050.25LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.010.010.020.010.020.040.020.040.020.030.01−0.010.020.02−0.010.020.010.020.18−0.010.020.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.14 → 1.16Hearts1.50 → 1.48Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.47 → 1.46Hearts1.10 → 1.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six18%25%+7
11th14%11%−3
Bottom14%9%−5
Hearts
Top six95%91%−4
Aberdeen
Top six17%17%0
11th15%15%0
Bottom13%15%+2

From the forecast before the match (15 September 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkHearts
Expected goals1.121.43
Win29%43%
Expected Points1.151.58
Clean sheet24%33%

Falkirk 29%Draw 28%Hearts 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%3%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 September 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawHearts win
Falkirk
Top six18%25%17%13%
11th14%11%15%16%
Bottom14%9%14%18%
Hearts
Top six95%91%94%97%
Aberdeen
Top six17%17%17%18%
11th15%15%14%15%
Bottom13%15%14%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  2. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  3. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45
  4. D0–09 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.27
  5. L0–21 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.55–1.57
  6. L2–516 MayRangers (H)xG 2.46–2.54

Hearts

  1. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  2. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  3. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28
  4. W4–09 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.21–0.58
  5. L1–21 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.83–2.66
  6. L1–316 MayCeltic (A)xG 0.93–2.83

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkHearts
Position11th3rd
Played55
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠2–⁠34–⁠0–⁠1
Points2 (0.40 per game)12 (2.40 per game)
Expected Points per game0.591.76
Goals3–⁠712–⁠5
xG per game0.79–⁠2.101.81–⁠1.28
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 0.78–⁠1.573.00, 2.11–⁠0.76
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.80–⁠2.461.50, 1.34–⁠2.06
ManagerJohn McGlynn (43)Wouter Vrancken (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.14, 8thHearts1.50, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.47, 7thHearts1.10, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepFalkirk attack: 1.14Hearts attack: 1.501.501.14HeartsFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepFalkirk defence: 1.47Hearts defence: 1.101.471.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%+37%−4%−32%
Counter-attacks−69%average−34%−32%
Set pieces−62%+41%+41%+3%
Penalties−88%−82%+72%−18%
Headers−64%−23%−16%+23%
Left side−49%+41%+13%−53%
Centre−41%+12%+11%−3%
Right side−31%+55%−26%−27%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHearts concededLeft side−49%−27%Centre−41%−3%Right side−31%−53%Open play−24%−32%Counter-attacks−69%−32%Set pieces−62%+3%Headers−64%+23%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdFalkirk concededLeft side+13%+55%Centre+11%+12%Right side−26%+41%Open play−4%+37%Counter-attacks−34%averageSet pieces+41%+41%Headers−16%−23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkHearts

0.79xG1.81
2.10xG against1.28
46%Possession52%
10.0Shots18.0
17.6Shots against10.2
2.4Shots on target6.0
1.0Big chances2.4
22.6Touches in the opposition box30.6
395Passes424
76%Pass accuracy79%
4.4Corners8.6
43%Field tilt57%
35.0Final-third entries35.6
7.8Box entries14.8
11.6Passes per defensive action13.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.021.72
Ahead171.042.74
Behind420.512.12

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level172.271.60
Ahead601.571.41
Behind132.320.31

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.221–3
16–300.100.420–1
31–450.070.471–0
46–600.110.180–0
61–750.190.441–0
76–900.100.380–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.430.014–0
16–300.130.140–1
31–450.470.203–0
46–600.140.261–2
61–750.280.102–0
76–900.360.572–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 5Strain 5Neilson 4Meļņiks 1Henderson 5McCann 4Tanser 1Barbrook 4McMillan 1Spencer 3Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 2Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 3Yeats 2Ross 2Eames 1Fodrey 1Murrell 2Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 5Altena 5McEntee 4Findlay 4McCart 1Milne 1McCart 2Mendy 1Miller 1Spittal 3Magnússon 2McEntee 1Mendy 3Renaud 1Kerjota 3Miller 2Braga 4Ba-Sy 1McPake 4Miller 1Wilson 3Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 5 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 May 2026Hearts3–0FalkirkxG 0.56–0.28
21 February 2026Hearts1–0FalkirkxG 1.10–0.74
13 December 2025Falkirk0–2HeartsxG 1.03–1.51
27 September 2025Hearts3–0FalkirkxG 1.94–0.67

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 0, Hearts won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–9 and xG 0.68–1.28 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver10861310.320.15
Strain5450010.120.16
Ross111,225110.170.08
Yeats191,443200.080.07

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré141,263520.490.15
Braga393,3331650.460.10
Kerjota3513130.180.37
Magnússon161,497300.240.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.