Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Mirren 2–1 Hearts

Saturday 21 September 2024, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 15 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 7,341

St. Mirren Taylor 8' (og), Olusanya 34'

Hearts Halkett 18'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHearts
Goals21
xG1.170.39
Expected Points2.040.64

St. Mirren 57%Draw 32%Hearts 10%

Most likely score 1–0, 27%. Final score 2–1, 7%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+19%7%1%12%2%16%7%1%5%2%27%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTTanser on for Brown, 46'Scott on for Olusanya and van Veen on for Mandron, 69'Smyth on for Phillips, 70'Idowu on for Boyd-Munce, 84'Oyegoke on for Taylor, 46'Oda on for Vargas, 63'Dhanda on for Spittal, 70'Boyce on for Grant, 76'Forrest on for Penrice, 77'Taylor 8' (og)Olusanya 34'Halkett 18'St. Mirren 1.17Hearts 0.3900.511.50153045607590HTTanser on for Brown, 46'Scott on for Olusanya and van Veen on for Mandron, 69'Smyth on for Phillips, 70'Idowu on for Boyd-Munce, 84'Oyegoke on for Taylor, 46'Oda on for Vargas, 63'Dhanda on for Spittal, 70'Boyce on for Grant, 76'Forrest on for Penrice, 77'Taylor 8' (og)Olusanya 34'Halkett 18'1.170.39St. MirrenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHearts

1.17 +0.07xG0.39 −0.56
1.08 −0.05xG on target0.62 +0.02
11 +1Shots9 −4
2 −1.6Shots on target2 −0.8
2 +0.4Big chances0 −1.0
18 0Touches in the opposition box27 0
37% −6Possession63% +11
264 −36Passes442 +18
64% −6Pass accuracy78% +3
39% +6Field tilt61% +11
22 −7Final-third entries38 −1
10 +1.6Box entries11 −1.4
15.4 0Passes per defensive action9.3 −2
5 +2.6Corners4 −2.8
16 −1Tackles21 −2
11 +3.0Interceptions5 −5.0
34 +3Clearances17 −5
1 −1.6Saves1 −2.0
14 +1Fouls9 −4
4 +2.0Offsides4 +2.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Olusanya 45', 0.18 xGIdowu 90+3', 0.14 xGOlusanya 53', 0.13 xGvan Veen 83', 0.09 xGPhillips 30', 0.07 xGGogic 62', 0.05 xGvan Veen 77', 0.03 xGOlusanya 41', 0.02 xGTanser 81', 0.02 xGO'Hara 86', 0.02 xGOlusanya 34', 0.43 xG, goal4%0.05 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals80%0.94 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.94 xG, 1 goal3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals11%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 84', 0.11 xGSpittal 1', 0.10 xGSpittal 5', 0.05 xGGrant 11', 0.04 xGHalkett 43', 0.02 xGOda 89', 0.02 xGVargas 14', 0.01 xGPenrice 43', 0.01 xGHalkett 18', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%0.31 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.31 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals16%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals3%0.01 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHearts

0.36 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.31 6 shots, 0 goals
0.11 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.70 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.08 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
24 min (26%) · St. Mirren 0.50, Hearts 0.15 xG
St. Mirren ahead
69 min (74%) · St. Mirren 0.67, Hearts 0.24 xG

Line-ups

122135198815621209BalcombeFraserGogicTaylorRooneyPhillipsBoyd-MunceO'HaraBrownOlusanyaMandronYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card70'84'46'69'69'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson1824329618777169GordonTaylorHalkettKingsleyPenriceBaningimeBoatengVargasGrantSpittalShanklandOwn goalGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'77'63'76'70'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Tanser for Brown
  • 69' Scott for Olusanya
  • 69' van Veen for Mandron
  • 70' Smyth for Phillips
  • 84' Idowu for Boyd-Munce

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Oyegoke for Taylor
  • 63' Oda for Vargas
  • 70' Dhanda for Spittal
  • 76' Boyce for Grant
  • 77' Forrest for Penrice

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BalcombeGK900.000.0000.0111
FraserCB900.000.0000.0453
GogicCB900.050.0200.01114
TaylorCB900.000.0100.07710
RooneyRWB900.000.0110.0235
PhillipsCM7010.070.1320.2033
Boyd-Munce CM840.000.0310.0234
O'HaraCM900.020.1410.1937
Brown LWB460.000.0910.0810
Olusanya ST6910.770.0000.0620
MandronST690.000.0310.0205
TanserMF440.020.0500.1449
ScottFW210.000.0000.0000
van VeenFW210.110.011−0.0511
SmythMF200.000.0210.0631
IdowuFW60.140.0000.0810

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0100
TaylorRB460.000.0300.0541
HalkettCB9010.060.0300.04212
Kingsley CB900.000.0200.0746
PenriceLB770.010.0500.1284
Baningime DM900.000.0100.0106
BoatengDM900.000.0500.14144
VargasRW630.010.1910.0836
Grant AM760.040.010−0.0200
SpittalLW7010.150.0620.0110
Shankland ST900.110.1910.0311
OyegokeMF440.000.0000.0432
OdaFW270.020.0100.0001
DhandaMF200.000.0400.0321
BoyceFW140.000.0300.0400
ForrestMF130.000.0610.0711

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gogic and Taylor: 3 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesTaylor and Fraser: 3 passesTaylor and Rooney: 3 passesTaylor and Mandron: 3 passesTaylor and Olusanya: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Olusanya: 3 passesBalcombe and Gogic: 4 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 4 passesFraser and Phillips: 4 passesRooney and Phillips: 4 passesRooney and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesPhillips and Olusanya: 4 passesGogic and Fraser: 5 passesBrown and O'Hara: 5 passesGogic and O'Hara: 6 passesTaylor and Brown: 6 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 6 passesBrown and Olusanya: 6 passesFraser and Rooney: 7 passesBalcombe: 8 completed passesGogic: 14 completed passesTaylor: 22 completed passesFraser: 14 completed passesRooney: 11 completed passesBrown: 8 completed passesPhillips: 7 completed passesO'Hara: 10 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 11 completed passesMandron: 2 completed passesOlusanya: 6 completed passes113522192188615920BalcombeGogicTaylorFraserRooneyBrownPhillipsO'HaraBoyd-MunceMandronOlusanyaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Gordon and Kingsley: 3 passesGordon and Halkett: 3 passesTaylor and Vargas: 3 passesKingsley and Boateng: 3 passesHalkett and Boateng: 3 passesBaningime and Grant: 3 passesBoateng and Grant: 3 passesBoateng and Spittal: 3 passesKingsley and Halkett: 4 passesKingsley and Grant: 4 passesBaningime and Boateng: 4 passesGordon and Penrice: 5 passesTaylor and Halkett: 6 passesBaningime and Spittal: 6 passesPenrice and Baningime: 7 passesPenrice and Grant: 8 passesKingsley and Penrice: 9 passesPenrice and Spittal: 9 passesBoateng and Vargas: 10 passesTaylor and Boateng: 11 passesGordon: 9 completed passesTaylor: 12 completed passesKingsley: 13 completed passesHalkett: 12 completed passesPenrice: 18 completed passesBaningime: 14 completed passesBoateng: 19 completed passesVargas: 7 completed passesGrant: 9 completed passesSpittal: 13 completed passesShankland: 4 completed passes1823429618777169GordonTaylorKingsleyHalkettPenriceBaningimeBoatengVargasGrantSpittalShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserRooney7
TaylorBoyd-Munce5
Smythvan Veen5
Boyd-MunceTaylor4
TaylorBrown4

Hearts

FromToPasses
PenriceSpittal13
BoatengOyegoke13
SpittalPenrice12
KingsleyPenrice12
PenriceKingsley10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

7+2.68−0.819+3.810+1.47−1.63−2.83−0.813+3.86−2.61−2.26+2.03−0.811+5.24+0.60−3.46+3.80−3.04−0.62+0.62+0.41+0.42+1.64+2.40−0.21+0.60−1.80−0.80−0.62−4.82−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Hearts

6+1.23−3.89+1.69+2.06+0.24−3.25−2.25−2.65+1.06+3.44−1.02−3.82−3.63+0.23−0.23−0.22−2.63+0.22−0.21+0.61−0.43+2.20−0.81+0.610.00−0.410.09−5.41−5.63−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.030.010.030.010.060.080.010.040.01−0.010.07−0.050.030.140.210.20LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.010.010.020.020.050.030.030.050.02−0.020.04−0.02−0.010.010.080.010.070.030.060.110.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackSt. Mirren1.11 → 1.13Hearts1.31 → 1.29Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.43 → 1.40Hearts1.31 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six35%44%+9
11th10%8%−2
Bottom8%5%−3
Hearts
Top six45%35%−10
11th6%8%+2
Bottom4%5%+1

From the forecast before the match (21 September 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.331.23
Win38%34%
Expected Points1.431.29
Clean sheet29%27%

St. Mirren 38%Draw 28%Hearts 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%2%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 September 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHearts win
St. Mirren
Top six35%44%33%26%
11th10%8%11%13%
Bottom8%5%7%11%
Hearts
Top six45%35%44%56%
11th6%8%6%4%
Bottom4%5%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D2–214 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.53–0.59
  2. D2–231 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.34–1.76
  3. L0–325 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.15–2.46
  4. L1–311 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.30–1.60
  5. W3–04 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.20–1.58
  6. L2–318 MayCeltic (A)xG 1.36–2.30

Hearts

  1. L0–214 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.65–2.88
  2. L0–11 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.63–1.26
  3. L1–325 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.62–2.54
  4. L1–310 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.52–1.53
  5. D0–03 AugRangers (H)xG 1.32–0.75
  6. D3–318 MayRangers (H)xG 2.06–1.99

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position7th12th
Played55
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠20–⁠1–⁠4
Points5 (1.00 per game)1 (0.20 per game)
Expected Points per game1.100.87
Goals8–⁠102–⁠9
xG per game1.10–⁠1.600.95–⁠1.79
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 0.96–⁠1.540.50, 0.98–⁠1.00
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.32–⁠1.680.00, 0.93–⁠2.32
ManagerStephen Robinson (38)Steven Naismith (39)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackSt. Mirren1.11, 9thHearts1.31, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.43, 8thHearts1.31, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren attack: 1.11Hearts attack: 1.311.311.11HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren defence: 1.43Hearts defence: 1.311.431.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%+32%−34%+17%
Counter-attacks+40%+6%−40%+20%
Set pieces−48%+20%+30%+19%
Penalties+33%−83%−80%+140%
Headers−36%+16%+17%+102%
Left side−37%+17%−23%+27%
Centre−21%+12%−18%+20%
Right side−17%+70%−18%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−37%+2%Centre−21%+20%Right side−17%+27%Open play−25%+17%Counter-attacks+40%+20%Set pieces−48%+19%Headers−36%+102%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−23%+70%Centre−18%+12%Right side−18%+17%Open play−34%+32%Counter-attacks−40%+6%Set pieces+30%+20%Headers+17%+16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

1.10xG0.95
1.60xG against1.79
43%Possession52%
10.0Shots12.6
14.4Shots against12.8
3.6Shots on target2.8
1.6Big chances1.0
18.4Touches in the opposition box26.6
300Passes424
70%Pass accuracy75%
2.4Corners6.8
33%Field tilt50%
28.8Final-third entries38.8
8.4Box entries12.4
14.9Passes per defensive action11.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level450.941.36
Ahead191.671.73
Behind260.961.91

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level530.712.14
Ahead0––
Behind371.301.27

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.281–2
16–300.090.281–1
31–450.570.253–2
46–600.100.211–2
61–750.140.370–2
76–900.140.202–1

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.390–0
16–300.140.340–2
31–450.040.410–2
46–600.090.460–2
61–750.180.072–0
76–900.370.100–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBalcombe 5Fraser 5Gogic 4Iacovitti 2Taylor 4Rooney 5O'Hara 3Phillips 2Adeniran 2Boyd-Mu… 4Boyd-MunceIdowu 3Gogic 1Tanser 3Brown 2Olusanya 5Scott 1Mandron 2Ayunga 23-5-2 in 4 of 5 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGordon 3Clark 2Kingsley 2Oda 1Dhanda 1Kent 4Halkett 2Rowles 4Taylor 4Kingsley 1Grant 3Devlin 1Boateng 2Spittal 2Penrice 1Penrice 3Salazar 1Devlin 1McKay 2Shankland 1Grant 1Vargas 3Forrest 1Shankland 4Vargas 13-4-2-1 in 2 of 5 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 May 2024St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.72–0.83
6 April 2024St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.89–2.37
23 December 2023Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 1.20–0.64
23 September 2023St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 1.59–1.19
13 May 2023St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.06–2.13
8 April 2023Hearts0–2St. MirrenxG 0.94–1.25

11 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Hearts won 6, and 3 were drawn. Goals 10–16 and xG 1.02–1.55 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya191,804910.350.05
Mandron252,235930.280.12
Scott5487120.230.06
O'Hara292,588730.220.06

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland413,7012450.440.18
Boyce7682130.340.19
Grant191,645440.320.15
McKay6577020.050.39

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.