Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian 1–3 Hearts

Thursday 3 September 2026, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 5 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 19,656

Hibernian Mayor 51' · Iredale sent off 62'

Hearts Wilson 13', Mendy 43', McPake 66'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianHearts
Goals13
xG1.470.86
Expected Points1.810.90

Hibernian 51%Draw 29%Hearts 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 1–3, 1%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%8%3%6%1%10%5%1%5%5%2%1%1%14%15%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTIredale (Hibernian), second yellow card 62'Iredale on for Obita, 29'Mayor on for Wright and Chaiwa on for Devaney, 46'Suto on for Boyle, 73'Klidje on for Lowe, 83'Magnússon on for Spittal, 71'Williams on for Wilson, 72'Kerjota on for Braga, 78'Milne on for McCart, 87'Guendouz on for Miller, 88'Mayor 51'Wilson 13'Mendy 43'McPake 66'Hibernian 1.47Hearts 0.8600.511.520153045607590HTIredale (Hibernian), second yellow card 62'Iredale on for Obita, 29'Mayor on for Wright and Chaiwa on for Devaney, 46'Suto on for Boyle, 73'Klidje on for Lowe, 83'Magnússon on for Spittal, 71'Williams on for Wilson, 72'Kerjota on for Braga, 78'Milne on for McCart, 87'Guendouz on for Miller, 88'Mayor 51'Wilson 13'Mendy 43'McPake 66'1.470.86HibernianHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianHearts

1.47 −0.51xG0.86 −1.22
1.01 −0.34xG on target2.30 +0.36
17 0Shots12 −5
4 −1.0Shots on target5 −1.0
1 −2.3Big chances1 −2.0
32 +1Touches in the opposition box22 −6
50% +5Possession50% +4
374 −50Passes378 +3
80% 0Pass accuracy79% +2
57% +7Field tilt43% −8
36 −12Final-third entries28 −1
12 −3Box entries12 −2
12.2 −2Passes per defensive action15.8 +1
7 +1.3Corners8 +1.0
20 −1Tackles16 −1
2 −5.3Interceptions6 −2.3
30 +6Clearances42 +6
2 −2.3Saves3 +1.7
16 +3Fouls9 −4
1 −0.7Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Lowe 41', 0.25 xGLowe 41', 0.23 xGLowe 73', 0.17 xGLowe 73', 0.14 xGMcGrath 90+1', 0.12 xGSuto 90+2', 0.09 xGMayor 58', 0.08 xGPasslack 50', 0.06 xGMulligan 64', 0.06 xGMayor 71', 0.06 xGMulligan 50', 0.04 xGDevaney 41', 0.03 xGKerr 35', 0.02 xGMulligan 84', 0.02 xGMcGrath 6', 0.01 xGMulligan 38', 0.01 xGMayor 51', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals72%1.06 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.06 xG, 0 goals18%0.26 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal10%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Braga 31', 0.13 xGBraga 2', 0.12 xGBraga 9', 0.12 xGBraga 25', 0.05 xGBraga 18', 0.03 xGKerjota 81', 0.03 xGMendy 90+4', 0.03 xGMcPake 42', 0.02 xGSpittal 26', 0.01 xGWilson 13', 0.14 xG, goalMcPake 66', 0.11 xG, goalMendy 43', 0.09 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.65 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.65 xG, 2 goals17%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 1 goal7%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianHearts

0.89 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.75 10 shots, 2 goals
0.47 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.10 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.11 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
13 min (14%) · Hibernian 0.01, Hearts 0.38 xG
Hearts ahead
81 min (86%) · Hibernian 1.46, Hearts 0.49 xG

Line-ups

16421258241710923SallingerKerrHanleyObitaPasslackMulliganDevaneyMcGrathBoyleLoweWrightYellow card29'46'73'83'46'Hibernian 3-4-3David Gray123617577816152110ReusAltenaMcEnteeFindlayMcCartMillerMendySpittalMcPakeWilsonBragaGoalGoalGoal87'88'71'72'78'Hearts 4-4-2Wouter Vrancken

Hibernian substitutes

  • 29' Iredale for Obita · yellow card 45', second yellow 62'
  • 46' Mayor for Wright · goal 51'
  • 46' Chaiwa for Devaney
  • 73' Suto for Boyle
  • 83' Klidje for Lowe

Hearts substitutes

  • 71' Magnússon for Spittal
  • 72' Williams for Wilson
  • 78' Kerjota for Braga
  • 87' Milne for McCart
  • 88' Guendouz for Miller

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0441
KerrCB900.020.0100.04819
Hanley CB900.000.0000.0326
ObitaCB290.000.0000.0002
PasslackRWB900.060.0710.0873
MulliganCM9010.140.3420.1882
DevaneyCM460.030.000−0.0315
McGrathLWB900.140.3520.13113
BoyleRW730.000.0100.0013
LoweST830.790.0420.0400
WrightLW460.000.272−0.0911
Iredale DF330.000.0000.0457
MayorMF4410.210.0630.1694
ChaiwaMF440.000.0100.0030
SutoFW170.090.1510.0700
KlidjeFW70.000.000−0.0200

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ReusGK900.000.0000.0112
AltenaRB900.000.0100.06611
McEnteeCB900.000.0100.06611
FindlayCB900.000.0000.02212
McCartLB8710.000.0010.03110
MillerRM880.000.4540.0841
MendyCM9010.110.0210.0328
SpittalCM7110.010.1820.0354
McPakeLM90110.130.1910.1993
WilsonST7210.140.1220.0711
BragaST780.450.0000.0113
MagnússonMF190.000.0100.0110
WilliamsFW180.000.0000.0000
KerjotaFW120.030.0100.0331
MilneDF30.000.0100.0000
GuendouzMF20.000.0100.0431

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Sallinger and Kerr: 3 passesSallinger and Lowe: 3 passesKerr and Passlack: 3 passesMcGrath and Lowe: 3 passesSallinger and Devaney: 4 passesHanley and Devaney: 4 passesKerr and Hanley: 5 passesObita and Hanley: 7 passesObita and McGrath: 8 passesKerr and Devaney: 10 passesSallinger and Hanley: 12 passesSallinger: 13 completed passesObita: 11 completed passesKerr: 12 completed passesHanley: 16 completed passesPasslack: 4 completed passesMcGrath: 8 completed passesDevaney: 10 completed passesMulligan: 2 completed passesBoyle: 3 completed passesWright: 1 completed passesLowe: 6 completed passes12164251724810239SallingerObitaKerrHanleyPasslackMcGrathDevaneyMulliganBoyleWrightLoweStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Reus and Mendy: 4 passesAltena and Braga: 4 passesMcEntee and Findlay: 4 passesMiller and Braga: 4 passesSpittal and Braga: 4 passesMendy and McPake: 4 passesMcPake and Braga: 4 passesReus and Spittal: 5 passesMcEntee and Spittal: 5 passesMcCart and Mendy: 5 passesAltena and McEntee: 6 passesAltena and Mendy: 6 passesMendy and Braga: 6 passesReus and McCart: 7 passesAltena and Spittal: 7 passesMcEntee and Miller: 7 passesFindlay and Mendy: 7 passesMcCart and Braga: 7 passesSpittal and McPake: 7 passesReus and McEntee: 8 passesMcCart and McPake: 8 passesSpittal and Mendy: 8 passesMiller and Spittal: 10 passesAltena and Miller: 15 passesFindlay and McCart: 15 passesReus and Findlay: 17 passesReus: 26 completed passesAltena: 30 completed passesMcEntee: 23 completed passesFindlay: 26 completed passesMcCart: 23 completed passesMiller: 18 completed passesSpittal: 27 completed passesMendy: 21 completed passesMcPake: 11 completed passesBraga: 10 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passes123617571678151021ReusAltenaMcEnteeFindlayMcCartMillerSpittalMendyMcPakeBragaWilsonStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanleySallinger12
KerrHanley12
HanleyKerr11
KerrPasslack10
SallingerKerr9

Hearts

FromToPasses
FindlayReus13
AltenaMiller12
McCartFindlay10
ReusFindlay10
FindlayMcCart9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

6+1.77−0.313−3.74−2.38+3.08+0.34−2.05−3.04−1.39+5.76+2.03+0.74−0.76+4.08+4.72−0.31−2.04+2.04+0.72−2.71−3.35+3.720.03−1.700.000.02+2.01+0.31−0.73−4.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Hearts

3−1.713+5.721+2.33−3.02−1.78+1.37−0.76−0.315+7.73−3.38+0.34−0.35+3.03−2.71−6.06+2.01−1.71−1.34+0.32−5.30−2.01−0.30−1.010.01−1.00−1.00−0.30−1.32+1.31+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.030.010.020.010.020.010.040.020.020.030.030.04−0.010.040.04−0.010.060.050.01−0.110.010.070.090.070.07LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.020.020.010.020.070.02−0.010.010.030.030.020.020.05−0.020.01−0.02−0.040.010.110.110.090.08LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.39 → 1.40Hearts1.49 → 1.49Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.23 → 1.23Hearts1.13 → 1.14

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Title1%<1%−1
Top six87%81%−6
11th<1%1%+1
Hearts
Top six85%92%+7
11th<1%<1%0

From the forecast before the match (3 September 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.401.17
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.521.20
Clean sheet31%25%

Hibernian 41%Draw 28%Hearts 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 September 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawHearts win
Hibernian
Title1%1%<1%<1%
Top six87%91%87%81%
11th<1%<1%<1%1%
Hearts
Top six85%79%85%92%
11th<1%1%<1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03
  2. W2–19 AugRangers (A)xG 1.68–2.20
  3. L1–22 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.94–2.19
  4. L0–116 MayMotherwell (H)xG 0.76–1.16
  5. W2–113 MayRangers (A)xG 1.60–1.75
  6. W3–19 MayFalkirk (A)xG 1.10–0.63

Hearts

  1. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28
  2. W4–09 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.21–0.58
  3. L1–21 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.83–2.66
  4. L1–316 MayCeltic (A)xG 0.93–2.83
  5. W3–013 MayFalkirk (H)xG 0.56–0.28
  6. D1–19 MayMotherwell (A)xG 1.33–0.55

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position7th6th
Played33
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠0–⁠12–⁠0–⁠1
Points6 (2.00 per game)6 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.481.79
Goals5–⁠47–⁠3
xG per game1.98–⁠1.812.08–⁠1.51
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 1.94–⁠2.193.00, 2.21–⁠0.93
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 2.00–⁠1.620.00, 1.83–⁠2.66
ManagerDavid Gray (81)Wouter Vrancken (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.39, 5thHearts1.49, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.23, 4thHearts1.13, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepHibernian attack: 1.39Hearts attack: 1.491.491.39HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepHibernian defence: 1.23Hearts defence: 1.131.231.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−3%+1%+6%−25%
Counter-attacks+11%−2%+1%−38%
Set pieces+12%−18%+58%+16%
Penalties+123%+7%+25%−11%
Headers−35%−19%−13%+46%
Left side−3%+36%+29%−28%
Centre+1%−19%+32%+6%
Right side+6%−18%−19%−42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−3%−42%Centre+1%+6%Right side+6%−28%Open play−3%−25%Counter-attacks+11%−38%Set pieces+12%+16%Headers−35%+46%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+29%−18%Centre+32%−19%Right side−19%+36%Open play+6%+1%Counter-attacks+1%−2%Set pieces+58%−18%Headers−13%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.98xG2.08
1.81xG against1.51
45%Possession46%
17.3Shots17.0
15.7Shots against10.0
5.0Shots on target6.0
3.3Big chances3.0
30.7Touches in the opposition box28.0
424Passes375
80%Pass accuracy77%
5.7Corners7.0
50%Field tilt52%
48.0Final-third entries29.3
14.7Box entries14.0
14.6Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.991.31
Ahead461.552.02
Behind74.843.00

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level162.892.42
Ahead741.911.31
Behind0––

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.340.081–0
16–300.220.121–0
31–450.450.500–1
46–600.440.351–0
61–750.220.111–0
76–900.310.661–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.580.023–0
16–300.140.160–0
31–450.690.112–0
46–600.200.331–1
61–750.230.021–0
76–900.250.870–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 3O'Hora 2Kerr 3Hanley 1Obita 3Passlack 2Megwa 1Mulligan 3Chaiwa 2Devaney 1Mayor 2Wright 1Boyle 1Suto 1Elding 1Lowe 2Campbell 1Boyle 1McGrath 1Klidje 13-4-3 in 2 of 3 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 3Altena 3Findlay 2McEntee 2McCart 1Milne 1Mendy 1Borchgrevink 1Miller 1Spittal 2Magnússon 1McEntee 1Mendy 1Renaud 1Kerjota 3Braga 2Ba-Sy 1McPake 2Miller 1Braga 1Wilson 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 April 2026Hibernian1–2HeartsxG 0.54–1.83
10 February 2026Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.66–0.38
27 December 2025Hibernian3–2HeartsxG 1.51–1.78
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69
26 December 2024Hearts1–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.93

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, Hearts won 6, and 7 were drawn. Goals 16–21 and xG 1.23–1.13 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Klidje8804310.620.03
Campbell5768430.450.15
Boyle282,215930.430.13
Suto3513410.340.06

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré141,263520.490.15
Braga373,1651550.440.11
Kerjota3471030.160.35
Magnússon151,388300.260.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.