Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 4–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 19 October 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 8 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 18,757

Hearts Vargas 15', Oyegoke 47', Wilson 86', Spittal 90+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals40
xG1.730.24
Expected Points2.560.26

Hearts 80%Draw 17%St. Mirren 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 26%. Final score 4–0, 3%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%2%8%7%13%3%3%25%26%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Shankland and Forrester on for Oyegoke, 65'Devlin on for Baningime, 77'Wilson on for Vargas, 78'McKay on for Dhanda, 87'Adeniran on for Smyth and Bwomono on for Phillips, 46'Idowu on for Kiltie, Mandron on for van Veen, and Mooney on for Olusanya, 61'Vargas 15'Oyegoke 47'Wilson 86'Spittal 90+3'Hearts 1.73St. Mirren 0.2400.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Shankland and Forrester on for Oyegoke, 65'Devlin on for Baningime, 77'Wilson on for Vargas, 78'McKay on for Dhanda, 87'Adeniran on for Smyth and Bwomono on for Phillips, 46'Idowu on for Kiltie, Mandron on for van Veen, and Mooney on for Olusanya, 61'Vargas 15'Oyegoke 47'Wilson 86'Spittal 90+3'1.730.24HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.73 +0.59xG0.24 −1.02
3.05 +2.10xG on target0.00 −1.18
12 −1Shots5 −6
4 +0.6Shots on target0 −3.9
3 +1.0Big chances1 −1.1
15 −13Touches in the opposition box10 −10
60% +5Possession40% −6
509 +66Passes332 +3
78% +2Pass accuracy62% −10
72% +18Field tilt28% −13
37 −6Final-third entries24 −7
6 −7.2Box entries7 −2.5
15.6 +4Passes per defensive action17.7 +2
1 −5.8Corners6 +2.8
15 −7Tackles10 −5
10 +0.5Interceptions7 −0.5
17 −3Clearances15 −15
0 −2.1Saves0 −2.2
10 −3Fouls15 +3
1 −0.8Offsides0 −2.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Dhanda 82', 0.16 xGRowles 35', 0.09 xGShankland 20', 0.06 xGSpittal 45+1', 0.05 xGDhanda 12', 0.04 xGShankland 42', 0.03 xGWilson 90', 0.02 xGBoateng 67', 0.01 xGWilson 86', 0.58 xG, goalVargas 15', 0.44 xG, goalSpittal 90+3', 0.21 xG, goalOyegoke 47', 0.05 xG, goal59%1.01 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.01 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals18%0.31 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals23%0.39 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.39 xG, 2 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Phillips 37', 0.15 xGTanser 40', 0.03 xGKiltie 6', 0.02 xGGogic 56', 0.02 xGO'Hara 3', 0.01 xG65%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals9%0.02 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals22%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals4%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

0.79 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.07 3 shots, 0 goals
0.27 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.67 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.18 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (16%) · Hearts 0.48, St. Mirren 0.04 xG
Hearts ahead
81 min (84%) · Hearts 1.25, St. Mirren 0.21 xG

Line-ups

15215292061816977GordonOyegokeKentRowlesPenriceDhandaBaningimeBoatengSpittalShanklandVargasGoalGoalGoal65'87'77'65'78'Hearts 4-4-2Liam Fox122131838886119920BalcombeFraserGogicDunneTanserPhillipsSmythO'HaraKiltievan VeenOlusanyaYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'46'61'61'61'St. Mirren 4-3-3Stephen Robinson

Hearts substitutes

  • 65' Forrester for Oyegoke
  • 65' Forrest for Shankland
  • 77' Devlin for Baningime · 1 assist
  • 78' Wilson for Vargas · goal 86'
  • 87' McKay for Dhanda

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Bwomono for Phillips
  • 46' Adeniran for Smyth · yellow card 84'
  • 61' Mooney for Olusanya
  • 61' Mandron for van Veen
  • 61' Idowu for Kiltie · yellow card 90+5'

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0000
OyegokeRB6510.050.0110.0585
KentCB900.000.0000.0987
RowlesCB900.090.0100.12109
PenriceLB900.000.0400.0075
DhandaRM870.200.1500.0381
BaningimeCM770.000.020−0.0225
BoatengCM9010.010.0110.0115
SpittalLM9010.250.011−0.0133
ShanklandST6510.090.352−0.0421
VargasST7810.440.0200.0910
ForresterDF250.000.0000.0222
ForrestMF250.000.0910.0540
DevlinMF1310.000.0210.0112
WilsonFW1210.590.0000.0000
McKayFW30.000.1000.0110

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BalcombeGK900.000.0000.0221
FraserRB900.000.0720.2153
GogicCB900.020.0300.13118
Dunne CB900.000.0000.0545
TanserLB900.030.1610.0453
PhillipsCM460.150.0000.0002
SmythCM460.000.0100.0245
O'HaraCM900.010.020−0.0513
Kiltie RW610.020.000−0.0300
van VeenST610.000.010−0.0200
Olusanya LW610.000.011−0.0100
BwomonoDF440.000.0500.1471
Adeniran MF440.000.0200.0321
MooneyMF290.000.0100.0010
MandronFW290.000.010−0.0800
Idowu FW290.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Dhanda and Spittal: 5 passesDhanda and Boateng: 6 passesBaningime and Spittal: 7 passesKent and Baningime: 8 passesOyegoke and Boateng: 9 passesGordon and Kent: 10 passesKent and Boateng: 10 passesGordon and Rowles: 11 passesRowles and Spittal: 11 passesOyegoke and Kent: 12 passesOyegoke and Baningime: 12 passesBaningime and Boateng: 12 passesRowles and Baningime: 13 passesPenrice and Boateng: 13 passesDhanda and Shankland: 13 passesBoateng and Spittal: 13 passesOyegoke and Shankland: 15 passesRowles and Penrice: 16 passesRowles and Boateng: 18 passesPenrice and Spittal: 18 passesOyegoke and Dhanda: 20 passesRowles and Kent: 28 passesGordon: 19 completed passesOyegoke: 43 completed passesRowles: 54 completed passesKent: 40 completed passesPenrice: 32 completed passesDhanda: 25 completed passesBaningime: 31 completed passesBoateng: 44 completed passesSpittal: 29 completed passesVargas: 8 completed passesShankland: 20 completed passes15152292061816779GordonOyegokeRowlesKentPenriceDhandaBaningimeBoatengSpittalVargasShanklandStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

Gogic and Tanser: 3 passesGogic and Smyth: 3 passesTanser and Smyth: 3 passesSmyth and Phillips: 3 passesSmyth and Kiltie: 4 passesBalcombe and Dunne: 5 passesFraser and Smyth: 5 passesGogic and Dunne: 5 passesDunne and Smyth: 5 passesBalcombe and Gogic: 6 passesFraser and Gogic: 7 passesDunne and Tanser: 7 passesBalcombe: 10 completed passesFraser: 10 completed passesGogic: 14 completed passesDunne: 13 completed passesTanser: 11 completed passesSmyth: 15 completed passesOlusanya: 2 completed passesPhillips: 1 completed passesO'Hara: 5 completed passesKiltie: 3 completed passesvan Veen: 1 completed passes122131838208861199BalcombeFraserGogicDunneTanserSmythOlusanyaPhillipsO'HaraKiltievan VeenStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent18
KentRowles13
RowlesPenrice13
RowlesBoateng11
PenriceSpittal11

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserGogic15
TanserDunne14
DunneGogic10
GogicFraser9
GogicBalcombe8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

7+2.57+0.210−3.15−2.45−2.48+2.14−2.89+3.04−2.61−2.93−0.17+1.810+4.14−0.92−1.44+0.62−1.02−1.83+0.42+0.12+1.50−1.01−0.80−0.80−0.50−1.20−0.42+0.91−5.02−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

St. Mirren

3−1.93−5.55−3.09+3.52−6.13−2.05+1.12−4.07−1.67+0.16+3.24+0.24−0.43−3.46+2.52−0.22−0.41−1.45+0.82+0.45+3.01+0.20−0.53+1.42+1.90−0.51−0.40−0.50−0.48−7.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.010.010.050.030.020.010.030.030.020.040.040.030.03−0.010.01−0.05−0.05−0.050.050.070.07LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.020.040.050.010.020.020.030.020.020.01−0.010.010.020.07−0.03−0.010.030.02−0.07−0.03−0.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.32 → 1.36St. Mirren1.14 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.31 → 1.28St. Mirren1.41 → 1.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six30%37%+7
11th9%7%−2
Bottom5%3%−2
St. Mirren
Top six33%25%−8
11th10%12%+2
Bottom5%7%+2

From the forecast before the match (19 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.601.03
Win50%24%
Expected Points1.760.98
Clean sheet36%20%

Hearts 50%Draw 26%St. Mirren 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 19 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Top six30%37%26%20%
11th9%7%10%12%
Bottom5%3%6%8%
St. Mirren
Top six33%25%34%46%
11th10%12%9%6%
Bottom5%7%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L2–36 OctAberdeen (A)xG 2.02–0.69
  2. D1–128 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.94–0.84
  3. L1–221 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.39–1.17
  4. L0–214 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.65–2.88
  5. L0–11 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.63–1.26
  6. L1–325 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.62–2.54

St. Mirren

  1. L0–15 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.07–0.97
  2. L1–228 SepMotherwell (A)xG 2.33–2.07
  3. W2–121 SepHearts (H)xG 1.17–0.39
  4. D2–214 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.53–0.59
  5. D2–231 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.34–1.76
  6. L0–325 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.15–2.46

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position12th6th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠2–⁠62–⁠2–⁠4
Points2 (0.25 per game)8 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.181.31
Goals6–⁠1511–⁠14
xG per game1.14–⁠1.461.26–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.30–⁠0.951.40, 1.02–⁠1.20
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 1.04–⁠1.760.33, 1.66–⁠1.81
ManagerLiam Fox (1)Stephen Robinson (41)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.32, 3rdSt. Mirren1.14, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.31, 3rdSt. Mirren1.41, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctHearts attack: 1.32St. Mirren attack: 1.141.321.14St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctHearts defence: 1.31St. Mirren defence: 1.411.411.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%−8%−29%+16%
Counter-attacks−62%+29%+25%−25%
Set pieces+30%+14%+6%−2%
Penalties−100%+47%+47%−27%
Headers+23%+47%−29%+12%
Left side−6%+13%−24%−13%
Centre−7%−7%−21%+2%
Right side−13%+8%+8%+42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−6%+42%Centre−7%+2%Right side−13%−13%Open play−16%+16%Counter-attacks−62%−25%Set pieces+30%−2%Headers+23%+12%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−24%+8%Centre−21%−7%Right side+8%+13%Open play−29%−8%Counter-attacks+25%+29%Set pieces+6%+14%Headers−29%+47%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.14xG1.26
1.46xG against1.43
55%Possession46%
13.0Shots11.5
12.4Shots against12.8
3.4Shots on target3.9
2.0Big chances2.1
28.4Touches in the opposition box19.5
443Passes329
76%Pass accuracy72%
6.8Corners3.2
53%Field tilt41%
42.5Final-third entries31.3
13.2Box entries9.5
11.4Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.861.86
Ahead00.002.70
Behind431.461.00

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.061.17
Ahead221.291.56
Behind241.621.79

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.300–2
16–300.100.241–2
31–450.160.371–4
46–600.120.310–2
61–750.150.063–1
76–900.330.181–4

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.213–2
16–300.130.281–3
31–450.540.224–3
46–600.230.171–2
61–750.130.320–3
76–900.150.222–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 6Clark 2Taylor 4Kingsley 2Oyegoke 1Kent 5Halkett 3Rowles 6Kingsley 2Penrice 3Kingsley 2Grant 1Boateng 4Devlin 3Penrice 1Grant 3Baningime 2Spittal 1Vargas 3Dhanda 1Oyegoke 1Grant 3Shankland 1Dhanda 1Vargas 2Spittal 2Forrest 2Shankland 7Vargas 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBalcombe 8Fraser 7Idowu 1Gogic 7Iacovitti 2Taylor 6Dunne 1Rooney 6Fraser 1Bwomono 1Phillips 5Adeniran 2Boyd-Mun… 7Boyd-MunceO'Hara 6Idowu 3Gogic 1Tanser 4Brown 3Taylor 1Olusanya 8van Veen 1Scott 1Mandron 4Ayunga 23-5-2 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (6), 4-3-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 September 2024St. Mirren2–1HeartsxG 1.17–0.39
15 May 2024St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.72–0.83
6 April 2024St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.89–2.37
23 December 2023Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 1.20–0.64
23 September 2023St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 1.59–1.19
13 May 2023St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.06–2.13

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 6, St. Mirren won 3, and 3 were drawn. Goals 17–12 and xG 1.46–1.03 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland8711120.360.13
Kent6540200.260.05
Vargas7526000.120.07
Rowles6540000.040.12

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya8585400.500.01
O'Hara6526100.290.10
Fraser8720010.050.13
Rooney6517000.020.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.