Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 2–0 St. Mirren

Wednesday 14 January 2026, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 17 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,410

Hearts Shankland 60', Magnússon 80' · Baningime sent off 15'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals20
xG2.180.98
Expected Points2.210.58

Hearts 67%Draw 21%St. Mirren 13%

Most likely score 2–1, 13%. Final score 2–0, 11%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+3%3%1%8%4%1%7%2%8%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%10%11%13%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTBaningime (Hearts), red card 15'Kaboré on for Braga, 67'Magnússon on for Kyziridis and McCart on for Spittal, 68'Kent on for Shankland, 74'Altena on for Devlin, 90+4'Dijksteel on for McMenamin and Nlundulu on for Smyth, 57'Campbell on for King, 66'Richardson on for Freckleton, 81'Shankland 60'Magnússon 80'Hearts 2.18St. Mirren 0.9801230153045607590HTBaningime (Hearts), red card 15'Kaboré on for Braga, 67'Magnússon on for Kyziridis and McCart on for Spittal, 68'Kent on for Shankland, 74'Altena on for Devlin, 90+4'Dijksteel on for McMenamin and Nlundulu on for Smyth, 57'Campbell on for King, 66'Richardson on for Freckleton, 81'Shankland 60'Magnússon 80'2.180.98HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

2.18 +0.54xG0.98 −0.16
2.68 +0.74xG on target0.34 −0.58
14 0Shots13 +1
7 +2.0Shots on target2 −1.6
8 +5.7Big chances1 −0.6
23 −5Touches in the opposition box24 −1
40% −13Possession60% +16
316 −118Passes467 +121
74% −3Pass accuracy83% +10
51% −9Field tilt49% +2
25 −18Final-third entries61 +23
10 −3Box entries14 +3
15.4 +4Passes per defensive action8.6 −8
3 −2.9Corners5 −1.1
17 −2Tackles20 +7
8 −1.1Interceptions7 0.0
27 −6Clearances17 −12
2 −0.4Saves5 +1.9
7 −4Fouls12 0
2 +0.8Offsides5 +3.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Kyziridis 45', 0.51 xGShankland 56', 0.38 xGMilne 80', 0.34 xGBraga 25', 0.24 xGBraga 24', 0.18 xGKyziridis 60', 0.09 xGBraga 45', 0.08 xGKyziridis 55', 0.03 xGSpittal 45+1', 0.02 xGDevlin 60', 0.02 xGKyziridis 17', 0.01 xGSteinwender 45+1', 0.01 xGMagnússon 80', 0.19 xG, goalShankland 60', 0.09 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals93%2.01 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 2.01 xG, 2 goals5%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Gogic 63', 0.25 xGPhillips 90+5', 0.20 xGDijksteel 73', 0.12 xGNlundulu 62', 0.08 xGMandron 79', 0.08 xGPhillips 77', 0.07 xGMandron 45+3', 0.04 xGMcMenamin 4', 0.03 xGPhillips 64', 0.03 xGCampbell 72', 0.03 xGMandron 29', 0.02 xGGogic 31', 0.02 xGSmyth 45+3', 0.01 xG33%0.32 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals53%0.52 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.52 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals6%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.88 10 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.54 7 shots, 0 goals
0.27 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.03 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.43 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
63 min (64%) · Hearts 1.65, St. Mirren 0.12 xG
Hearts ahead
35 min (36%) · Hearts 0.53, St. Mirren 0.86 xG

Line-ups

115419181614689109GordonSteinwenderHalkettFindlayMilneSpittalDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandSent offGoal68'90+4'68'67'74'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes12252110888132479GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonMcMenaminPhillipsSmythGogicJohnIdowuMandronYellow card66'81'57'57'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Hearts substitutes

  • 67' Kaboré for Braga
  • 68' McCart for Spittal
  • 68' Magnússon for Kyziridis · goal 80'
  • 74' Kent for Shankland
  • 90+4' Altena for Devlin

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 57' Nlundulu for Smyth
  • 57' Dijksteel for McMenamin
  • 66' Campbell for King
  • 81' Richardson for Freckleton

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0011
SteinwenderRB900.010.0100.0426
HalkettCB900.000.0000.0227
FindlayCB900.000.0000.0016
MilneLB900.340.1220.29106
SpittalRM6810.020.1510.0616
DevlinCM900.020.0210.0536
Baningime CM150.000.0000.0000
KyziridisLM680.640.0610.0911
BragaST670.510.1310.1424
ShanklandST7410.460.1020.0523
KaboréFW230.000.0000.0010
McCartDF220.000.0100.0223
MagnússonMF2210.190.0510.0412
KentDF160.000.0000.0114
AltenaDF00.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.0530
FraserCB900.000.0110.0137
KingCB660.000.0300.0979
FreckletonCB810.000.1520.35166
McMenaminRWB570.030.0110.0354
PhillipsCM900.300.0500.0464
SmythCM570.010.0600.0775
Gogic CM900.280.0200.0754
JohnLWB900.000.2820.2597
IdowuST900.000.1330.2430
MandronST900.130.051−0.0401
NlunduluFW330.080.0000.0000
DijksteelFW330.120.0410.0761
CampbellMF240.030.0600.0720
RichardsonMF90.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

King and McMenamin: 3 passesKing and Mandron: 3 passesFreckleton and Mandron: 3 passesFraser and Phillips: 3 passesGogic and Smyth: 3 passesSmyth and Idowu: 3 passesFreckleton and John: 4 passesFraser and Smyth: 4 passesGogic and Idowu: 4 passesKing and Gogic: 5 passesMcMenamin and Idowu: 5 passesMcMenamin and Gogic: 6 passesFreckleton and Phillips: 7 passesMcMenamin and Smyth: 7 passesJohn and Phillips: 7 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 8 passesJohn and Smyth: 8 passesFraser and McMenamin: 10 passesSmyth and Mandron: 10 passesKing and Smyth: 13 passesGeorge and King: 15 passesFreckleton and Smyth: 18 passesKing and Fraser: 26 passesKing and Freckleton: 34 passesGeorge: 18 completed passesKing: 53 completed passesFreckleton: 45 completed passesFraser: 29 completed passesMcMenamin: 15 completed passesJohn: 10 completed passesGogic: 9 completed passesPhillips: 13 completed passesSmyth: 35 completed passesMandron: 8 completed passesIdowu: 6 completed passes15212210241388897GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserMcMenaminJohnGogicPhillipsSmythMandronIdowuStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
MilneFindlay10
FindlayMilne10
GordonMilne9
MilneBraga8
MilneDevlin8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
KingFreckleton21
FreckletonKing18
KingFraser14
FraserKing14
FreckletonSmyth13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

4−0.64−2.914+2.29+2.84+0.37−0.87−1.15−2.16−1.14−1.84−1.91−4.52−5.13−2.64−1.46+1.35+2.23−1.05+0.93+0.24+1.81−0.61−0.630.02+0.90−0.52+1.80−0.50−1.01−7.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

St. Mirren

3−1.310+2.59+2.55+0.24−1.85−2.77+0.810+3.04−1.53−1.32−2.23−0.15+1.45+1.20−3.85+1.95+2.10−2.71−2.24+1.51−1.02+0.34+2.21−1.91+0.10−0.50−1.20−0.11+0.55−12.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.020.010.010.020.010.040.010.030.050.070.06−0.030.070.090.080.050.17LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.030.030.030.020.030.040.050.050.060.020.040.050.06−0.07−0.040.080.120.06−0.06−0.020.140.180.160.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackHearts1.48 → 1.50St. Mirren1.13 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.07 → 1.05St. Mirren1.36 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title20%25%+5
St. Mirren
Top six3%2%−1
11th8%10%+2
Bottom2%2%0
Rangers
Title24%22%−2
Celtic
Title55%53%−2

From the forecast before the match (14 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.780.84
Win59%17%
Expected Points2.010.75
Clean sheet43%17%

Hearts 59%Draw 24%St. Mirren 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%1%4%1%7%6%2%3%3%1%1%12%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Title20%25%15%11%
St. Mirren
Top six3%2%3%7%
11th8%10%7%4%
Bottom2%2%1%<1%
Rangers
Title24%22%25%29%
Celtic
Title55%53%59%59%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–011 JanDundee FC (A)xG 0.36–1.34
  2. W1–03 JanLivingston (H)xG 2.23–0.54
  3. L2–327 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.78–1.51
  4. W2–121 DecRangers (H)xG 1.70–2.33
  5. W2–013 DecFalkirk (A)xG 1.51–1.03
  6. W2–17 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.52–1.87

St. Mirren

  1. L0–210 JanFalkirk (H)xG 0.54–0.52
  2. L0–23 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.30–1.88
  3. L1–230 DecRangers (A)xG 1.71–1.89
  4. D0–027 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.36–0.75
  5. W1–020 DecLivingston (H)xG 2.23–0.24
  6. W2–06 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.24–1.01

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position1st10th
Played2120
Won, drawn, lost14–⁠5–⁠24–⁠6–⁠10
Points47 (2.24 per game)18 (0.90 per game)
Expected Points per game1.781.23
Goals40–⁠1716–⁠28
xG per game1.64–⁠0.981.14–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game2.40, 1.75–⁠1.001.18, 1.11–⁠1.03
Away: points, xG per game2.09, 1.54–⁠0.970.56, 1.18–⁠1.71
ManagerDerek McInnes (21)Stephen Robinson (91)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackHearts1.48, 4thSt. Mirren1.13, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.07, 3rdSt. Mirren1.36, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.48St. Mirren attack: 1.131.481.13St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.07St. Mirren defence: 1.361.361.07

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+13%−17%−29%−5%
Counter-attacks+8%−47%−48%+88%
Set pieces+44%−24%+27%−16%
Penalties−8%−100%−35%−68%
Headers+37%−5%+15%+5%
Left side+16%−29%−26%+7%
Centre+38%−31%−13%+9%
Right side−10%+2%−14%−17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+16%−17%Centre+38%+9%Right side−10%+7%Open play+13%−5%Counter-attacks+8%+88%Set pieces+44%−16%Headers+37%+5%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−26%+2%Centre−13%−31%Right side−14%−29%Open play−29%−17%Counter-attacks−48%−47%Set pieces+27%−24%Headers+15%−5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.64xG1.14
0.98xG against1.34
53%Possession44%
14.3Shots12.2
9.7Shots against12.8
5.0Shots on target3.6
2.3Big chances1.6
27.9Touches in the opposition box25.0
434Passes346
77%Pass accuracy73%
5.9Corners6.1
59%Field tilt47%
42.8Final-third entries38.1
13.1Box entries11.4
11.6Passes per defensive action17.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.380.76
Ahead371.821.19
Behind121.981.07

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level581.201.29
Ahead140.891.62
Behind171.151.25

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.143–2
16–300.200.107–4
31–450.270.197–4
46–600.320.128–3
61–750.180.157–1
76–900.460.298–3

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.140–0
16–300.180.194–3
31–450.160.272–6
46–600.160.172–4
61–750.180.314–5
76–900.280.264–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 17Clark 4McEntee 10Steinwender 5Kent 3Halkett 17Steinwender 2Kent 2Findlay 20Shankland 1Kingsley 9Milne 8Devlin 2Milne 6Kyziridis 5Braga 4Baningime 9McEntee 6Magnússon 3Devlin 19Spittal 4Kyziridis 12Braga 4Milne 3Shankland 19Kaboré 4Findlay 1Braga 10Magnússon 4Milne 14-4-2 in 10 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 20Fraser 18Gogic 12King 11Freckleton 19Richards… 14RichardsonMcMena… 6McMenaminPhillips 20Baccus 11Gogic 5Donnelly 4O'Hara 8Taylor 4Idowu 4John 19Tanser 1Ayunga 11Nlundulu 9Idowu 3Mandron 173-5-2 in 15 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (15), 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 October 2025St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.01–1.57
26 February 2025Hearts3–1St. MirrenxG 1.34–1.17
19 October 2024Hearts4–0St. MirrenxG 1.73–0.24
21 September 2024St. Mirren2–1HeartsxG 1.17–0.39
15 May 2024St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.72–0.83
6 April 2024St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.89–2.37

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 8, St. Mirren won 3, and 4 were drawn. Goals 26–15 and xG 1.47–0.99 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga181,518920.490.14
Shankland201,7601020.390.12
Kyziridis171,526360.140.37
Magnússon9839100.310.02

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin9889110.210.30
Ayunga11953200.340.03
Nlundulu10899200.290.06
Mandron171,430420.230.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.