Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 3–1 St. Mirren

Wednesday 26 February 2025, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 28 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 18,770

Hearts Wilson 55', Nieuwenhof 63', Vargas 90+5'

St. Mirren Mandron 37'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals31
xG1.341.17
Expected Points1.511.17

Hearts 40%Draw 31%St. Mirren 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 3–1, 3%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%7%4%1%11%9%3%9%12%8%2%2%3%2%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTSpittal on for Kartum and Grant on for Nieuwenhof, 66'Drammeh on for Kabangu and Vargas on for Wilson, 82'Bwomono on for Alebiosu and Olusanya on for Ayunga, 46'Kiltie on for Phillips, 77'Idowu on for Taylor, 90'Wilson 55'Nieuwenhof 63'Vargas 90+5'Mandron 37'Hearts 1.34St. Mirren 1.1700.511.50153045607590HTSpittal on for Kartum and Grant on for Nieuwenhof, 66'Drammeh on for Kabangu and Vargas on for Wilson, 82'Bwomono on for Alebiosu and Olusanya on for Ayunga, 46'Kiltie on for Phillips, 77'Idowu on for Taylor, 90'Wilson 55'Nieuwenhof 63'Vargas 90+5'Mandron 37'1.341.17HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.34 −0.04xG1.17 +0.02
2.43 +1.07xG on target1.11 −0.03
10 −3Shots12 +1
6 +1.7Shots on target4 +0.3
2 −0.3Big chances2 +0.1
18 −8Touches in the opposition box26 +6
55% +1Possession45% +3
396 −48Passes324 +27
73% −4Pass accuracy64% 0
64% +6Field tilt36% −7
40 −2Final-third entries25 −6
10 −2.2Box entries11 +2.3
20.2 +7Passes per defensive action9.2 −6
5 −1.5Corners6 +1.5
6 −13Tackles16 0
4 −5.0Interceptions9 +0.7
50 +23Clearances36 +8
2 −0.7Saves3 +0.4
8 −3Fouls16 +3
3 +1.6Offsides3 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Kabangu 67', 0.07 xGWilson 28', 0.06 xGGrant 89', 0.06 xGMcCart 27', 0.05 xGKabangu 61', 0.03 xGVargas 90+1', 0.02 xGMcCart 28', 0.01 xGWilson 56', 0.54 xG, goalVargas 90+5', 0.45 xG, goalNieuwenhof 63', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%1.05 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 1.05 xG, 2 goals7%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals14%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Olusanya 55', 0.23 xGTaylor 54', 0.19 xGOlusanya 55', 0.12 xGKiltie 85', 0.10 xGO'Hara 44', 0.07 xGPhillips 33', 0.06 xGJohn 37', 0.06 xGKiltie 83', 0.06 xGJohn 89', 0.06 xGOlusanya 90+2', 0.03 xGTaylor 26', 0.02 xGMandron 37', 0.17 xG, goal25%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals50%0.58 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.58 xG, 1 goal20%0.23 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals5%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.21 7 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.61 8 shots, 1 goal
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.35 2 shots, 0 goals
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.21 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
45 min (47%) · Hearts 0.19, St. Mirren 0.31 xG
Hearts ahead
33 min (34%) · Hearts 0.61, St. Mirren 0.25 xG
St. Mirren ahead
18 min (19%) · Hearts 0.54, St. Mirren 0.61 xG

Line-ups

182153029276892119GordonTaylorSteinwenderMcCartPenriceKartumBaningimeNieuwenhofShanklandWilsonKabanguGoalGoal66'66'82'82'Hearts 4-3-1-2Neil Critchley1222513881562479HemmingAlebiosuFraserTaylorGogicPhillipsBoyd-MunceO'HaraJohnAyungaMandronYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card46'90'77'46'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Hearts substitutes

  • 66' Spittal for Kartum
  • 66' Grant for Nieuwenhof · 1 assist
  • 82' Vargas for Wilson · goal 90+5'
  • 82' Drammeh for Kabangu

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Bwomono for Alebiosu
  • 46' Olusanya for Ayunga
  • 77' Kiltie for Phillips
  • 90' Idowu for Taylor

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0121
TaylorRB900.000.0200.0458
SteinwenderCB900.000.0100.05514
McCartCB900.060.0100.05517
PenriceLB900.000.0810.1589
KartumCM660.000.0310.0444
BaningimeCM900.000.0300.0125
NieuwenhofCM6610.040.030−0.0130
ShanklandAM900.000.1820.1052
WilsonST8210.600.0220.0442
KabanguST8210.100.0210.0110
SpittalMF240.000.0200.0321
GrantMF2410.060.3710.1311
VargasMF810.470.0000.0211
DrammehFW80.000.000−0.0100

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0100.0551
AlebiosuCB460.000.1520.3164
FraserCB900.000.0300.0546
TaylorCB900.210.010−0.10115
GogicRWB900.000.0100.06315
Phillips CM770.060.050−0.0901
Boyd-Munce CM900.000.0510.0756
O'Hara CM900.070.1420.0832
JohnLWB900.110.5220.1746
AyungaST460.000.0000.0010
Mandron ST9010.170.2430.0123
BwomonoDF440.000.0100.0342
OlusanyaFW440.370.0000.0011
KiltieMF130.160.0300.0201
IdowuFW00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Nieuwenhof and Kartum: 4 passesNieuwenhof and Shankland: 4 passesKartum and Wilson: 4 passesTaylor and Shankland: 5 passesTaylor and Wilson: 5 passesSteinwender and Kartum: 5 passesBaningime and Shankland: 5 passesPenrice and Kabangu: 6 passesSteinwender and Nieuwenhof: 7 passesMcCart and Penrice: 8 passesGordon and McCart: 9 passesPenrice and Baningime: 10 passesTaylor and Kartum: 11 passesSteinwender and Baningime: 11 passesPenrice and Shankland: 11 passesMcCart and Baningime: 12 passesMcCart and Nieuwenhof: 14 passesBaningime and Nieuwenhof: 14 passesSteinwender and McCart: 15 passesGordon and Steinwender: 16 passesTaylor and Steinwender: 16 passesPenrice and Nieuwenhof: 22 passesGordon: 19 completed passesTaylor: 23 completed passesSteinwender: 43 completed passesMcCart: 34 completed passesPenrice: 29 completed passesBaningime: 36 completed passesNieuwenhof: 35 completed passesKartum: 13 completed passesShankland: 17 completed passesKabangu: 6 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passes182153029682791921GordonTaylorSteinwenderMcCartPenriceBaningimeNieuwenhofKartumShanklandKabanguWilsonStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Gogic and Phillips: 3 passesFraser and Phillips: 3 passesFraser and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesFraser and Mandron: 3 passesAlebiosu and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesAlebiosu and Mandron: 3 passesJohn and Mandron: 3 passesJohn and Ayunga: 3 passesO'Hara and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesGogic and Fraser: 4 passesGogic and John: 4 passesTaylor and John: 4 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 4 passesJohn and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesPhillips and Mandron: 5 passesAlebiosu and Phillips: 7 passesJohn and O'Hara: 9 passesHemming: 3 completed passesGogic: 11 completed passesTaylor: 9 completed passesFraser: 11 completed passesAlebiosu: 11 completed passesJohn: 15 completed passesPhillips: 14 completed passesO'Hara: 11 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 10 completed passesMandron: 8 completed passesAyunga: 2 completed passes1135222248861597HemmingGogicTaylorFraserAlebiosuJohnPhillipsO'HaraBoyd-MunceMandronAyungaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
NieuwenhofPenrice14
McCartNieuwenhof10
SteinwenderMcCart9
GordonSteinwender9
SteinwenderTaylor9

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
JohnTaylor11
MandronBoyd-Munce8
HemmingMandron7
JohnBoyd-Munce7
FraserMandron7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5+1.16+0.722+8.86−0.73−1.78+1.26−0.67+1.38+0.87−0.57+1.32−2.43−0.23−2.77−0.40−5.02−1.430.07+3.32−2.70−2.42+0.31−0.220.03+0.21+0.40−0.42+1.41+0.610.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

St. Mirren

9+4.36−0.413−0.43−4.411+5.94−2.413+6.610+5.15−1.83−2.47+2.74+0.57+2.75−1.02−1.91−2.74+0.96+2.63−1.14+1.23+1.32+0.71+0.14+1.710.01+0.41−0.11+0.51+0.43−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.040.010.020.030.030.020.020.020.020.050.030.04−0.040.01−0.010.05−0.020.080.090.10LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.030.010.010.010.010.030.020.050.010.010.010.040.020.010.010.090.030.010.02−0.340.260.31LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.40 → 1.42St. Mirren1.13 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.25 → 1.25St. Mirren1.38 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six46%62%+16
11th1%<1%−1
St. Mirren
Top six36%22%−14
11th2%3%+1
Ross County
Top six18%17%−1
11th5%5%0

From the forecast before the match (26 February 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.700.95
Win54%21%
Expected Points1.880.87
Clean sheet39%18%

Hearts 54%Draw 25%St. Mirren 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 51%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%5%2%5%1%6%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 February 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Top six46%62%35%17%
11th1%<1%1%2%
St. Mirren
Top six36%22%40%67%
11th2%3%2%<1%
Ross County
Top six18%17%21%16%
11th5%5%5%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–123 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.18–2.02
  2. L1–316 FebRangers (H)xG 2.61–1.58
  3. W6–01 FebDundee FC (A)xG 3.06–0.37
  4. W3–225 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 2.51–1.05
  5. D0–012 JanAberdeen (A)xG 1.54–1.10
  6. W1–05 JanDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.66

St. Mirren

  1. W2–022 FebRangers (A)xG 1.49–0.81
  2. D0–016 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.70–0.37
  3. L0–11 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.38–0.51
  4. W3–025 JanAberdeen (A)xG 1.78–1.41
  5. L0–111 JanDundee United (H)xG 2.39–1.51
  6. L0–35 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.08–2.60

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position7th6th
Played2727
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠6–⁠1210–⁠4–⁠13
Points33 (1.22 per game)34 (1.26 per game)
Expected Points per game1.361.19
Goals37–⁠3732–⁠39
xG per game1.38–⁠1.421.15–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.38, 1.46–⁠1.301.29, 1.07–⁠1.10
Away: points, xG per game1.07, 1.30–⁠1.531.23, 1.24–⁠1.91
ManagerNeil Critchley (18)Stephen Robinson (60)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.40, 3rdSt. Mirren1.13, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.25, 3rdSt. Mirren1.38, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts attack: 1.40St. Mirren attack: 1.131.401.13St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts defence: 1.25St. Mirren defence: 1.381.381.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−1%−9%−27%−14%
Counter-attacks+5%−11%−17%+7%
Set pieces+15%+8%−22%+24%
Penalties−77%+37%+37%+59%
Headersaverage+24%−22%−7%
Left side+14%average−32%−12%
Centre−2%−1%−27%−4%
Right side+6%−16%−15%+18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+14%+18%Centre−2%−4%Right side+6%−12%Open play−1%−14%Counter-attacks+5%+7%Set pieces+15%+24%Headersaverage−7%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−32%−16%Centre−27%−1%Right side−15%averageOpen play−27%−9%Counter-attacks−17%−11%Set pieces−22%+8%Headers−22%+24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.38xG1.15
1.42xG against1.49
54%Possession42%
13.2Shots11.0
11.0Shots against12.3
4.3Shots on target3.7
2.3Big chances1.9
25.7Touches in the opposition box20.0
444Passes297
77%Pass accuracy64%
6.5Corners4.5
57%Field tilt43%
41.9Final-third entries31.4
12.2Box entries8.7
12.8Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.391.59
Ahead251.421.21
Behind261.331.37

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.171.23
Ahead201.081.76
Behind201.201.89

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.175–4
16–300.170.205–4
31–450.160.245–5
46–600.210.307–8
61–750.210.187–7
76–900.410.338–9

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.245–6
16–300.160.157–4
31–450.320.167–5
46–600.160.193–6
61–750.110.311–9
76–900.240.459–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 25Clark 2Oyegoke 11Forrester 10Taylor 4Kent 12Halkett 10Steinwender 2Rowles 20McCart 5Kingsley 2Penrice 21Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 17Baningime 11Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 7Spittal 2Drammeh 9Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 10Grant 5Boyce 3Spittal 18Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Wilson 8Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 14 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (14), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBalcombe 21Hemming 6Fraser 24Idowu 1Kiltie 1Gogic 23Iacovitti 7Taylor 21Dunne 4Bwomono 15Rooney 6Fraser 3Phillips 24Idowu 8Adeniran 2Boyd-Mu… 12Boyd-MunceSmyth 5McMena… 5McMenaminO'Hara 21Gogic 1Tanser 19John 4Brown 3Olusanya 23van Veen 2Scott 1Kiltie 13Mandron 11Ayunga 43-5-2 in 10 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 3-4-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 October 2024Hearts4–0St. MirrenxG 1.73–0.24
21 September 2024St. Mirren2–1HeartsxG 1.17–0.39
15 May 2024St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.72–0.83
6 April 2024St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.89–2.37
23 December 2023Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 1.20–0.64
23 September 2023St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 1.59–1.19

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 7, St. Mirren won 3, and 3 were drawn. Goals 21–12 and xG 1.48–0.97 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Drammeh10851300.450.02
Vargas121,031320.330.14
Shankland211,860460.300.16
Wilson10903410.210.18

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya231,741810.420.03
Smyth5559400.310.13
Ayunga4552110.260.11
Mandron111,154420.240.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.