Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 1–0 Hearts

Tuesday 3 February 2026, 20:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 25 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 7,151

St. Mirren Freckleton 88'

Hearts Halkett sent off 29'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHearts
Goals10
xG2.310.23
Expected Points2.690.19

St. Mirren 86%Draw 12%Hearts 2%

Most likely score 2–0, 22%. Final score 1–0, 17%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+7%2%5%5%4%9%2%4%1%17%22%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTHalkett (Hearts), red card 29'McMenamin on for Devaney, 70'Idowu on for Richardson, 71'Etete on for Mandron, 77'Sobowale on for Nlundulu, 86'Kent on for Kyziridis, 38'Kabangu on for Kaboré and Magnússon on for Baningime, 79'Ageu on for Leonard and Kerjota on for Steinwender, 90+3'Freckleton 88'St. Mirren 2.31Hearts 0.2301230153045607590HTHalkett (Hearts), red card 29'McMenamin on for Devaney, 70'Idowu on for Richardson, 71'Etete on for Mandron, 77'Sobowale on for Nlundulu, 86'Kent on for Kyziridis, 38'Kabangu on for Kaboré and Magnússon on for Baningime, 79'Ageu on for Leonard and Kerjota on for Steinwender, 90+3'Freckleton 88'2.310.23St. MirrenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHearts

2.31 +1.17xG0.23 −1.55
2.51 +1.64xG on target0.21 −1.83
21 +9Shots5 −10
5 +1.5Shots on target2 −3.4
5 +3.3Big chances0 −2.8
30 +5Touches in the opposition box14 −14
54% +9Possession46% −8
320 −30Passes282 −146
75% +2Pass accuracy71% −5
68% +22Field tilt32% −29
38 −1Final-third entries24 −18
13 +2Box entries6 −7
7.7 −8Passes per defensive action23.8 +12
7 +1.1Corners2 −3.6
17 +3Tackles13 −5
6 −0.7Interceptions6 −2.7
48 +19Clearances48 +16
2 −1.1Saves4 +1.7
19 +7Fouls8 −3
4 +1.9Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Mandron 13', 0.30 xGNlundulu 48', 0.18 xGPhillips 32', 0.17 xGMcMenamin 88', 0.17 xGMandron 47', 0.15 xGRichardson 51', 0.15 xGMandron 32', 0.14 xGFraser 47', 0.13 xGNlundulu 53', 0.13 xGJohn 13', 0.09 xGJohn 53', 0.08 xGMcMenamin 72', 0.08 xGDevaney 58', 0.06 xGGogic 3', 0.05 xGMcMenamin 85', 0.05 xGJohn 45+3', 0.04 xGIdowu 78', 0.04 xGJohn 84', 0.03 xGKing 14', 0.02 xGPhillips 38', 0.02 xGFreckleton 88', 0.22 xG, goal30%0.69 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.69 xG, 1 goal44%1.01 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.01 xG, 0 goals3%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals20%0.46 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.46 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Kyziridis 5', 0.06 xGBraga 65', 0.05 xGBraga 48', 0.04 xGKaboré 52', 0.04 xGMcEntee 66', 0.04 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals17%0.04 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals57%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals26%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHearts

1.62 15 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.10 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
0.69 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
91 min (95%) · St. Mirren 2.31, Hearts 0.23 xG
St. Mirren ahead
5 min (5%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12252128881324914GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsDevaneyGogicJohnMandronNlunduluYellow cardGoal71'70'77'86'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson25154191864931111089SchwolowSteinwenderHalkettFindlayMilneBaningimeLeonardMcEnteeKaboréBragaKyziridisSent offYellow card90+3'79'90+3'79'38'Hearts 4-3-3Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 70' McMenamin for Devaney
  • 71' Idowu for Richardson
  • 77' Etete for Mandron
  • 86' Sobowale for Nlundulu

Hearts substitutes

  • 38' Kent for Kyziridis
  • 79' Magnússon for Baningime
  • 79' Kabangu for Kaboré
  • 90+3' Ageu for Leonard
  • 90+3' Kerjota for Steinwender

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.0760
FraserCB900.130.2120.3798
King CB900.020.0600.14819
FreckletonCB9010.220.1410.08514
RichardsonRWB710.150.1210.1232
PhillipsCM900.190.0510.0542
DevaneyCM700.060.020−0.0625
GogicCM900.050.0310.0542
JohnLWB9010.250.3130.0678
MandronST770.590.0230.0127
NlunduluST860.310.000−0.0811
McMenaminMF200.300.0110.0310
IdowuFW190.040.2410.3731
EteteFW130.000.0010.0002
SobowaleDF40.000.0000.0001

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0100.0642
SteinwenderRB900.000.0200.06416
Halkett CB290.000.0000.0015
FindlayCB900.000.0100.0329
MilneLB900.000.0200.0977
BaningimeCM790.000.0100.0016
LeonardCM900.000.0200.02313
McEnteeCM900.040.0100.0436
Kaboré RW790.040.011−0.0110
BragaST900.090.0110.0502
KyziridisLW380.060.0200.0001
KentDF520.000.0000.0119
MagnússonMF110.000.000−0.0101
KabanguFW110.000.000−0.0100
AgeuMF00.000.000––0
KerjotaFW00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

George and Devaney: 4 passesKing and John: 4 passesFraser and Nlundulu: 4 passesJohn and Devaney: 4 passesGogic and Devaney: 4 passesGeorge and King: 5 passesGeorge and Mandron: 5 passesFreckleton and Fraser: 5 passesFraser and Phillips: 5 passesRichardson and Phillips: 5 passesGogic and Phillips: 5 passesGogic and Nlundulu: 5 passesFreckleton and Gogic: 6 passesFraser and Devaney: 6 passesKing and Fraser: 8 passesKing and Devaney: 8 passesFraser and Richardson: 8 passesJohn and Gogic: 8 passesKing and Freckleton: 14 passesFreckleton and Devaney: 16 passesFreckleton and John: 20 passesGeorge: 13 completed passesKing: 24 completed passesFreckleton: 37 completed passesFraser: 24 completed passesRichardson: 11 completed passesJohn: 23 completed passesGogic: 18 completed passesPhillips: 14 completed passesDevaney: 25 completed passesMandron: 7 completed passesNlundulu: 6 completed passes15212222413888914GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserRichardsonJohnGogicPhillipsDevaneyMandronNlunduluStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Schwolow and Findlay: 3 passesSteinwender and Baningime: 3 passesSteinwender and Leonard: 3 passesFindlay and Halkett: 3 passesHalkett and Milne: 3 passesHalkett and Baningime: 3 passesMilne and Braga: 3 passesBaningime and Kyziridis: 3 passesLeonard and Braga: 3 passesSchwolow and Steinwender: 4 passesSchwolow and Halkett: 4 passesSteinwender and Halkett: 4 passesHalkett and Leonard: 4 passesFindlay and Baningime: 5 passesMilne and Baningime: 5 passesFindlay and Leonard: 6 passesLeonard and Kyziridis: 6 passesSteinwender and Kaboré: 7 passesMilne and Leonard: 11 passesMilne and Kyziridis: 11 passesFindlay and Milne: 13 passesBaningime and Leonard: 13 passesSchwolow: 12 completed passesSteinwender: 14 completed passesFindlay: 15 completed passesHalkett: 12 completed passesMilne: 22 completed passesMcEntee: 2 completed passesBaningime: 20 completed passesLeonard: 26 completed passesKyziridis: 12 completed passesKaboré: 3 completed passesBraga: 4 completed passes25151941831649891110SchwolowSteinwenderFindlayHalkettMilneMcEnteeBaningimeLeonardKyziridisKaboréBragaStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FreckletonKing13
FreckletonJohn12
JohnFreckleton12
DevaneyFreckleton10
JohnGogic8

Hearts

FromToPasses
BaningimeLeonard11
LeonardMilne10
SteinwenderKaboré9
FindlayMilne9
MilneFindlay7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

7+2.74−3.312+5.15−0.15−0.76−1.17+0.516+8.914+8.54−0.45+0.92−0.93−0.740.04+0.14+0.93+0.11−1.63−0.22−0.61−1.03+1.33+1.14+1.22+1.01+0.60−1.00−0.30−0.56−10.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Hearts

5+0.611+4.728+16.56−0.18+4.54−3.414+6.07+0.26−2.45−2.01−4.92−4.04−1.22−4.51−4.33−2.13−1.71−1.84+0.24−0.22−0.61−1.30−1.50−1.50−2.91−0.20−0.41+0.50−0.41+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.050.010.010.020.030.020.010.040.020.010.100.060.020.010.040.030.030.080.040.10−0.110.140.230.20LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.020.010.02−0.020.020.040.030.030.04LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackSt. Mirren1.12 → 1.16Hearts1.57 → 1.50Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37 → 1.31Hearts1.03 → 1.07

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
11th14%8%−6
Bottom1%<1%−1
Hearts
Title41%32%−9
Celtic
Title38%44%+6
Kilmarnock
11th54%58%+4

From the forecast before the match (3 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.041.44
Win27%46%
Expected Points1.081.64
Clean sheet24%35%

St. Mirren 27%Draw 28%Hearts 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%9%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHearts win
St. Mirren
11th14%8%13%18%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Hearts
Title41%32%37%50%
Celtic
Title38%44%40%32%
Kilmarnock
11th54%58%54%51%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D0–031 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.04–0.78
  2. D1–120 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.41–1.47
  3. L0–214 JanHearts (A)xG 0.98–2.18
  4. L0–210 JanFalkirk (H)xG 0.54–0.52
  5. L0–23 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.30–1.88
  6. L1–230 DecRangers (A)xG 1.71–1.89

Hearts

  1. W3–031 JanDundee United (A)xG 4.39–0.18
  2. D2–225 JanCeltic (H)xG 1.66–1.35
  3. W2–014 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.18–0.98
  4. W1–011 JanDundee FC (A)xG 0.36–1.34
  5. W1–03 JanLivingston (H)xG 2.23–0.54
  6. L2–327 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.78–1.51

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position10th1st
Played2324
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠8–⁠1116–⁠6–⁠2
Points20 (0.87 per game)54 (2.25 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.84
Goals17–⁠3147–⁠19
xG per game1.14–⁠1.361.78–⁠0.96
Home: points, xG per game1.17, 1.11–⁠1.012.33, 1.78–⁠1.02
Away: points, xG per game0.55, 1.18–⁠1.732.17, 1.78–⁠0.90
ManagerStephen Robinson (94)Derek McInnes (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackSt. Mirren1.12, 8thHearts1.57, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37, 7thHearts1.03, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.12Hearts attack: 1.571.571.12HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.37Hearts defence: 1.031.371.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−30%average+27%−21%
Counter-attacks−33%+77%+8%−47%
Set pieces+21%−21%+41%−26%
Penalties−41%−70%+13%−100%
Headers+20%+10%+35%−4%
Left side−19%+9%+24%−30%
Centre−16%+4%+39%−31%
Right side−14%−6%+8%−7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−19%−7%Centre−16%−31%Right side−14%−30%Open play−30%−21%Counter-attacks−33%−47%Set pieces+21%−26%Headers+20%−4%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+24%−6%Centre+39%+4%Right side+8%+9%Open play+27%averageCounter-attacks+8%+77%Set pieces+41%−21%Headers+35%+10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

1.14xG1.78
1.36xG against0.96
45%Possession54%
12.1Shots14.6
12.7Shots against9.5
3.5Shots on target5.4
1.7Big chances2.8
24.9Touches in the opposition box28.5
350Passes428
74%Pass accuracy76%
5.9Corners5.6
47%Field tilt60%
38.7Final-third entries41.8
11.5Box entries13.3
16.2Passes per defensive action11.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level601.151.34
Ahead120.891.62
Behind181.271.22

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.490.81
Ahead372.021.15
Behind141.990.88

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.140–0
16–300.190.204–3
31–450.170.302–6
46–600.140.192–6
61–750.200.284–5
76–900.280.265–11

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.134–3
16–300.230.098–4
31–450.310.177–4
46–600.340.1210–3
61–750.200.197–2
76–900.490.2711–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 23Fraser 21King 14Gogic 12Freckleton 22Richards… 15RichardsonMcMenamin 7Sobowale 1Phillips 23Baccus 11McMena… 4McMenaminTaylor 4Gogic 8O'Hara 8Idowu 5John 21Tanser 2Ayunga 11Nlundulu 9Idowu 5Mandron 19Young 13-5-2 in 17 of 23 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (17), 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-3 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 18Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 10Steinwender 7Altena 3Halkett 20Steinwender 2Kent 2Findlay 23Shankland 1Milne 10Kingsley 9McCart 2Milne 7Kyziridis 5Braga 4Baningime 10McEntee 6Magnússon 5Devlin 20Spittal 4Kyziridis 15Braga 4Milne 3Shankland 20Kaboré 6Findlay 1Braga 13Magnússon 4McEntee 14-4-2 in 11 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 January 2026Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.18–0.98
29 October 2025St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.01–1.57
26 February 2025Hearts3–1St. MirrenxG 1.34–1.17
19 October 2024Hearts4–0St. MirrenxG 1.73–0.24
21 September 2024St. Mirren2–1HeartsxG 1.17–0.39
15 May 2024St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.72–0.83

16 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, Hearts won 9, and 4 were drawn. Goals 15–28 and xG 0.99–1.52 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin111,009110.210.29
Ayunga11953200.340.03
Mandron191,627420.250.09
Nlundulu10988200.270.07

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré7584410.770.11
Braga211,7481020.500.13
Kyziridis201,766460.240.34
Shankland211,8341120.400.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.