Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 2–2 Hearts

Wednesday 29 October 2025, 19:45 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 10 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 7,105

St. Mirren Nlundulu 28', Freckleton 55'

Hearts Shankland 35', Braga 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHearts
Goals22
xG1.011.57
Expected Points0.971.75

St. Mirren 23%Draw 28%Hearts 49%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 2–2, 6%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+7%9%4%2%7%5%2%4%6%6%3%1%2%1%11%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTDonnelly on for Baccus and Ayunga on for Nlundulu, 75'Sobowale on for McMenamin, 85'Kaboré on for Kingsley, 65'Magnússon on for Braga, 85'Nlundulu 28'Freckleton 55'Shankland 35'Braga 71'Hearts 1.57St. Mirren 1.0100.511.520153045607590HTDonnelly on for Baccus and Ayunga on for Nlundulu, 75'Sobowale on for McMenamin, 85'Kaboré on for Kingsley, 65'Magnússon on for Braga, 85'Nlundulu 28'Freckleton 55'Shankland 35'Braga 71'1.571.01St. MirrenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHearts

1.01 +0.02xG1.57 −0.22
1.54 +0.68xG on target2.75 +0.45
12 +1Shots20 +5
6 +3.0Shots on target8 +2.1
4 +2.6Big chances4 +1.7
24 +2Touches in the opposition box27 −6
48% +4Possession52% 0
301 −32Passes324 −92
70% −3Pass accuracy75% −1
42% −7Field tilt58% −6
30 −5Final-third entries44 +3
12 +1Box entries21 +7
18.6 0Passes per defensive action9.8 −1
6 −0.1Corners7 +0.9
13 +1Tackles14 −6
5 −2.4Interceptions12 +3.2
42 +12Clearances51 +21
6 +2.8Saves4 +2.0
9 −4Fouls11 −1
3 +0.9Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Freckleton 77', 0.26 xGAyunga 78', 0.12 xGO'Hara 7', 0.07 xGPhillips 55', 0.07 xGPhillips 69', 0.06 xGMandron 70', 0.05 xGMandron 17', 0.03 xGMcMenamin 32', 0.03 xGMandron 51', 0.03 xGMandron 69', 0.03 xGFreckleton 55', 0.20 xG, goalNlundulu 28', 0.05 xG, goal23%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.23 xG, 1 goal51%0.52 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.52 xG, 1 goal24%0.24 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 42', 0.17 xGFindlay 90+2', 0.14 xGBaningime 13', 0.12 xGKaboré 87', 0.12 xGShankland 47', 0.10 xGBraga 5', 0.08 xGBraga 20', 0.07 xGShankland 45', 0.07 xGShankland 88', 0.07 xGBaningime 65', 0.06 xGKyziridis 87', 0.05 xGKaboré 90+4', 0.05 xGKyziridis 70', 0.04 xGKyziridis 81', 0.04 xGShankland 24', 0.03 xGMilne 74', 0.03 xGKaboré 88', 0.03 xGKingsley 23', 0.02 xGBraga 70', 0.20 xG, goalShankland 34', 0.10 xG, goal23%0.36 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.36 xG, 1 goal39%0.62 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.62 xG, 1 goal6%0.10 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals31%0.49 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.49 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHearts

0.25 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.15 15 shots, 2 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.12 1 shot, 0 goals
0.72 7 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.30 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
71 min (76%) · St. Mirren 0.84, Hearts 1.18 xG
St. Mirren ahead
23 min (24%) · St. Mirren 0.17, Hearts 0.39 xG

Line-ups

122521108825624149GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonMcMenaminPhillipsBaccusO'HaraJohnNlunduluMandronGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal85'75'75'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson253141931861489109SchwolowMcEnteeHalkettFindlayKingsleyMilneBaningimeDevlinKyziridisBragaShanklandYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal65'85'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 75' Donnelly for Baccus
  • 75' Ayunga for Nlundulu
  • 85' Sobowale for McMenamin

Hearts substitutes

  • 65' Kaboré for Kingsley
  • 85' Magnússon for Braga

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK9010.000.0410.0321
FraserCB900.000.0200.1157
KingCB900.000.0000.05613
Freckleton CB9010.460.0610.07615
McMenaminRWB850.030.1410.1867
Phillips CM900.130.123−0.0441
BaccusCM750.000.0100.0122
O'HaraCM900.070.0100.0025
JohnLWB900.000.4030.2433
NlunduluST7510.050.052−0.0310
MandronST900.150.0300.03110
DonnellyDF150.000.0000.0001
AyungaFW150.120.0000.0210
SobowaleDF50.000.0000.0001

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0221
McEnteeRB900.000.1510.0779
Halkett CB900.000.0000.00022
FindlayCB900.140.0000.02218
KingsleyLB650.020.1810.2889
Milne RM900.030.0410.0750
BaningimeCM900.180.0400.0752
DevlinCM900.000.0920.1159
KyziridisLM900.130.5240.25121
BragaST8510.350.0300.0650
ShanklandST9010.530.1030.3656
KaboréFW250.190.1910.1012
MagnússonMF50.000.0100.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

George and Phillips: 4 passesGeorge and Mandron: 4 passesFreckleton and Fraser: 4 passesFraser and Baccus: 4 passesMcMenamin and O'Hara: 4 passesBaccus and Nlundulu: 4 passesPhillips and Mandron: 4 passesFraser and Phillips: 5 passesJohn and Baccus: 5 passesKing and Fraser: 6 passesMcMenamin and Phillips: 6 passesJohn and O'Hara: 6 passesBaccus and Mandron: 7 passesKing and Freckleton: 8 passesMcMenamin and Nlundulu: 8 passesFreckleton and John: 9 passesFraser and McMenamin: 9 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 10 passesFreckleton and Baccus: 10 passesFreckleton and O'Hara: 12 passesGeorge and King: 21 passesGeorge: 26 completed passesKing: 21 completed passesFreckleton: 30 completed passesFraser: 22 completed passesMcMenamin: 17 completed passesJohn: 14 completed passesBaccus: 17 completed passesPhillips: 15 completed passesO'Hara: 18 completed passesMandron: 13 completed passesNlundulu: 14 completed passes152122102425886914GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserMcMenaminJohnBaccusPhillipsO'HaraMandronNlunduluStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Halkett and Findlay: 4 passesKingsley and Shankland: 4 passesMilne and Kyziridis: 4 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 4 passesDevlin and Shankland: 4 passesBaningime and Shankland: 4 passesKyziridis and Shankland: 4 passesSchwolow and Findlay: 5 passesKingsley and Devlin: 5 passesKingsley and Baningime: 5 passesKingsley and Braga: 5 passesMilne and Baningime: 5 passesSchwolow and McEntee: 6 passesBraga and Shankland: 6 passesMcEntee and Halkett: 7 passesMcEntee and Devlin: 7 passesBaningime and Kyziridis: 7 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 9 passesMilne and Devlin: 9 passesKyziridis and Braga: 9 passesKingsley and Kyziridis: 12 passesDevlin and Baningime: 12 passesMcEntee and Milne: 14 passesSchwolow: 11 completed passesMcEntee: 20 completed passesHalkett: 11 completed passesFindlay: 12 completed passesKingsley: 21 completed passesMilne: 22 completed passesDevlin: 26 completed passesBaningime: 23 completed passesKyziridis: 22 completed passesBraga: 11 completed passesShankland: 10 completed passes253141931814689109SchwolowMcEnteeHalkettFindlayKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GeorgeKing13
KingGeorge10
O'HaraFreckleton8
JohnFreckleton8
FraserMcMenamin6

Hearts

FromToPasses
BaningimeDevlin11
MilneDevlin10
DevlinBaningime9
McEnteeMilne8
SchwolowMcEntee8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+1.814+6.724+6.85−2.34−0.46−0.28+0.23−1.89+2.35−0.12−3.64−0.24+1.15+1.96+2.13−1.13+0.72−1.32+0.20−2.30−3.12+0.33+1.32+0.11−1.80−1.01+0.61+0.10−0.10−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Hearts

1−3.36+0.610−0.914+8.33+0.14−3.412+3.912+5.320+12.85−1.11−7.05−0.35−0.29+2.07+1.31−4.61−3.32−0.85+0.25−0.31−1.42−0.41−0.61−0.64+0.70−1.20−0.20−0.40−0.31−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.020.020.010.010.020.020.020.010.070.010.030.030.01−0.020.03−0.05−0.020.080.150.19LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.020.020.080.020.020.020.120.030.070.110.030.14−0.06−0.030.210.180.160.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.15 → 1.15Hearts1.56 → 1.57Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.44 → 1.44Hearts1.08 → 1.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six23%24%+1
11th9%9%0
Bottom5%5%0
Hearts
Title17%15%−2
Celtic
Title80%81%+1
Aberdeen
Top six21%20%−1
11th10%11%+1
Bottom4%5%+1

From the forecast before the match (29 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.091.46
Win27%45%
Expected Points1.101.63
Clean sheet23%34%

St. Mirren 27%Draw 27%Hearts 45%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHearts win
St. Mirren
Top six23%33%24%17%
11th9%6%9%11%
Bottom5%2%5%7%
Hearts
Title17%13%15%20%
Celtic
Title80%82%81%77%
Aberdeen
Top six21%20%20%23%
11th10%10%11%9%
Bottom4%5%5%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–325 OctDundee United (A)xG 2.28–2.21
  2. L0–118 OctAberdeen (H)xG 0.48–2.05
  3. L0–24 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.43–2.15
  4. W1–027 SepDundee FC (H)xG 0.74–0.62
  5. W2–113 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–0.70
  6. D1–131 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.85–2.42

Hearts

  1. W3–126 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.57–0.88
  2. W3–018 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 2.88–0.43
  3. W1–04 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.80–0.39
  4. W3–027 SepFalkirk (H)xG 1.94–0.67
  5. W2–013 SepRangers (A)xG 2.37–1.11
  6. W2–130 AugLivingston (A)xG 1.42–0.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position9th1st
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠48–⁠1–⁠0
Points9 (1.00 per game)25 (2.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.012.04
Goals6–⁠1022–⁠7
xG per game0.99–⁠1.521.79–⁠0.85
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 0.89–⁠1.192.60, 1.51–⁠0.97
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.07–⁠1.783.00, 2.13–⁠0.69
ManagerStephen Robinson (80)Derek McInnes (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.15, 9thHearts1.56, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.44, 7thHearts1.08, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.15Hearts attack: 1.561.561.15HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.44Hearts defence: 1.081.441.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%+4%average−16%
Counter-attacks−65%+113%+50%−93%
Set pieces+5%−9%+50%−38%
Penalties−100%−42%+75%−100%
Headers+14%average+32%−49%
Left side−32%+24%+36%−42%
Centre−9%+25%+28%−44%
Right side−38%−20%−7%+4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−32%+4%Centre−9%−44%Right side−38%−42%Open play−24%−16%Counter-attacks−65%−93%Set pieces+5%−38%Headers+14%−49%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+36%−20%Centre+28%+25%Right side−7%+24%Open playaverage+4%Counter-attacks+50%+113%Set pieces+50%−9%Headers+32%average

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

0.99xG1.79
1.52xG against0.85
44%Possession52%
11.0Shots15.1
12.2Shots against9.2
3.0Shots on target5.9
1.4Big chances2.3
22.4Touches in the opposition box33.0
333Passes416
73%Pass accuracy76%
6.1Corners6.1
49%Field tilt64%
34.6Final-third entries41.4
11.3Box entries14.2
18.6Passes per defensive action11.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level651.071.38
Ahead170.991.87
Behind80.271.84

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.430.46
Ahead372.201.10
Behind111.771.43

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.150–0
16–300.210.201–1
31–450.200.242–2
46–600.130.170–0
61–750.160.372–1
76–900.210.381–6

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.102–1
16–300.290.094–3
31–450.240.161–1
46–600.320.156–1
61–750.250.154–1
76–900.560.205–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 9Fraser 7King 3Gogic 9Freckleton 8Richardson 8McMenamin 1Phillips 9Baccus 6Donnelly 2Taylor 1O'Hara 7Idowu 2John 9Ayunga 6Nlundulu 2Idowu 2Mandron 83-5-2 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (6), 5-3-2 (3)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 5Clark 4McEntee 5Kent 3Steinwender 1Halkett 9Findlay 8Shankland 1Kingsley 5Devlin 2Milne 1Milne 4Braga 2McEntee 1Devlin 7McEntee 2Borchgrevink 1Baningime 5Spittal 3Kyziridis 5Milne 3Forrest 1Shankland 8Findlay 1Braga 6McEntee 1Milne 14-4-2 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 February 2025Hearts3–1St. MirrenxG 1.34–1.17
19 October 2024Hearts4–0St. MirrenxG 1.73–0.24
21 September 2024St. Mirren2–1HeartsxG 1.17–0.39
15 May 2024St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.72–0.83
6 April 2024St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.89–2.37
23 December 2023Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 1.20–0.64

14 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, Hearts won 8, and 3 were drawn. Goals 13–24 and xG 0.99–1.47 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron8660120.200.12
Ayunga6518100.220.04
O'Hara7579000.080.15
John9800120.020.20

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga8696510.680.11
Kyziridis5500340.210.40
Shankland9806510.440.10
Milne9795120.080.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.