Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Dundee United 1–0 Hibernian

Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 8 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 10,331

Dundee United Bennie 35'

Hibernian Devaney sent off 84'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Goals10
xG1.680.77
Expected Points2.090.65

Dundee United 61%Draw 25%Hibernian 13%

Most likely score 1–0, 16%. Final score 1–0, 16%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+5%4%2%5%1%5%1%7%5%2%2%2%16%15%14%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTDevaney (Hibernian), red card 84'Sapsford on for Bennie, 67'Naamo on for Rawlins and Rose on for Metsoko, 71'Farrugia on for Cameron and Yoro on for Randall, 77'Lowe on for Šuto, Boyle on for Klidje, and Matondo on for Elding, 54'Devaney on for Chaiwa, 77'Cadden on for Iredale, 78'Bennie 35'Dundee United 1.68Hibernian 0.7700.511.520153045607590HTDevaney (Hibernian), red card 84'Sapsford on for Bennie, 67'Naamo on for Rawlins and Rose on for Metsoko, 71'Farrugia on for Cameron and Yoro on for Randall, 77'Lowe on for Šuto, Boyle on for Klidje, and Matondo on for Elding, 54'Devaney on for Chaiwa, 77'Cadden on for Iredale, 78'Bennie 35'1.680.77Dundee UnitedHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedHibernian

1.68 +0.07xG0.77 −0.93
1.89 +0.22xG on target0.54 −0.77
17 +1Shots13 −4
8 +3.0Shots on target4 −0.4
2 −0.4Big chances0 −2.3
30 0Touches in the opposition box24 −9
45% −5Possession55% +5
356 −48Passes447 +5
72% −6Pass accuracy77% −4
51% +6Field tilt49% −7
40 +1Final-third entries33 −13
17 +3Box entries10 −6
14.0 +2Passes per defensive action16.3 +2
8 +2.0Corners3 −4.4
14 −4Tackles11 −6
11 +0.7Interceptions7 −0.6
33 +2Clearances28 +4
4 +0.7Saves7 +3.6
13 +1Fouls14 +1
1 −0.9Offsides1 −1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Bennie 52', 0.20 xGRose 89', 0.15 xGBennie 48', 0.11 xGRandall 13', 0.10 xGBennie 66', 0.07 xGBennie 31', 0.06 xGYoro 85', 0.06 xGRandall 23', 0.04 xGBennie 30', 0.03 xGTait 45+1', 0.03 xGEsselink 24', 0.02 xGIqbal 30', 0.02 xGCiubotaru 50', 0.02 xGRandall 56', 0.02 xGTait 60', 0.02 xGSapsford 87', 0.02 xGBennie 35', 0.68 xG, goal40%0.68 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.68 xG, 1 goal39%0.65 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.65 xG, 0 goals5%0.09 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals12%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Kerr 58', 0.13 xGMulligan 9', 0.11 xGMatondo 56', 0.10 xGPasslack 63', 0.10 xGChaiwa 22', 0.07 xGKlidje 12', 0.04 xGWright 27', 0.04 xGPasslack 65', 0.04 xGBoyle 90+5', 0.04 xGMulligan 34', 0.03 xGWright 43', 0.03 xGMulligan 22', 0.02 xGŠuto 41', 0.02 xG17%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals29%0.22 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals23%0.18 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals31%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedHibernian

1.17 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.48 9 shots, 0 goals
0.35 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.10 1 shot, 0 goals
0.16 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
35 min (36%) · Dundee United 0.97, Hibernian 0.32 xG
Dundee United ahead
61 min (64%) · Dundee United 0.71, Hibernian 0.45 xG

Line-ups

12331819101614219377WaltonRawlinsEsselinkForbesCiubotaruTaitCameronIqbalRandallMetsokoBennieYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal71'77'77'71'67'Dundee United 4-3-3Jim Goodwin12565151487231822SallingerPasslackKerrIvezićIredaleChaiwaMulliganEldingWrightKlidjeŠutoYellow card78'77'54'54'54'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Marink Reedijk

Dundee United substitutes

  • 67' Sapsford for Bennie
  • 71' Naamo for Rawlins
  • 71' Rose for Metsoko
  • 77' Yoro for Randall · yellow card 90+3'
  • 77' Farrugia for Cameron

Hibernian substitutes

  • 54' Boyle for Klidje · yellow card 90+3'
  • 54' Lowe for Šuto
  • 54' Matondo for Elding
  • 77' Devaney for Chaiwa · red card 84'
  • 78' Cadden for Iredale

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0000.0220
RawlinsRB710.000.0410.1354
EsselinkCB900.020.000−0.13311
Forbes CB900.000.0000.03215
CiubotaruLB900.020.0920.12811
Tait CM900.060.0300.09132
CameronCM7710.000.8050.64144
Iqbal CM900.020.0210.0148
RandallRW770.170.2020.1532
MetsokoST710.000.031−0.0601
BennieLW6711.160.0100.0531
SapsfordFW230.020.1110.0651
NaamoMF190.000.0000.0102
RoseFW190.150.0110.0420
Yoro MF130.060.0100.0221
FarrugiaMF130.000.0000.0001

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0400.1474
PasslackRB900.140.2710.1395
KerrCB900.130.0500.02512
IvezićCB900.000.0100.0426
IredaleLB780.000.0110.0306
Chaiwa DM770.070.020−0.0216
MulliganDM900.170.0600.0642
EldingRW540.000.0640.0541
WrightAM900.060.1430.0142
KlidjeLW540.040.020−0.0520
ŠutoST540.020.2700.0302
Boyle FW360.040.3410.1840
LoweFW360.000.0210.0421
MatondoFW360.100.0400.0920
Devaney MF70.000.0000.0000
CaddenMF120.000.0000.0103

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Rawlins and Randall: 4 passesEsselink and Cameron: 4 passesIqbal and Metsoko: 4 passesCameron and Metsoko: 4 passesRandall and Bennie: 4 passesEsselink and Iqbal: 5 passesCameron and Bennie: 5 passesForbes and Ciubotaru: 6 passesIqbal and Bennie: 6 passesTait and Randall: 6 passesWalton and Esselink: 7 passesWalton and Forbes: 7 passesEsselink and Forbes: 7 passesEsselink and Tait: 7 passesCameron and Tait: 7 passesRawlins and Iqbal: 8 passesIqbal and Cameron: 8 passesRawlins and Esselink: 9 passesIqbal and Tait: 9 passesRawlins and Cameron: 10 passesForbes and Iqbal: 10 passesCiubotaru and Bennie: 10 passesCiubotaru and Iqbal: 11 passesCameron and Randall: 13 passesRawlins and Tait: 18 passesCiubotaru and Cameron: 18 passesWalton: 16 completed passesRawlins: 27 completed passesEsselink: 24 completed passesForbes: 18 completed passesCiubotaru: 24 completed passesIqbal: 36 completed passesCameron: 33 completed passesTait: 28 completed passesRandall: 14 completed passesMetsoko: 9 completed passesBennie: 12 completed passes12331819141610219377WaltonRawlinsEsselinkForbesCiubotaruIqbalCameronTaitRandallMetsokoBennieStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Sallinger and Wright: 3 passesIvezić and Wright: 3 passesKerr and Iredale: 3 passesChaiwa and Elding: 3 passesChaiwa and Šuto: 3 passesSallinger and Elding: 4 passesPasslack and Mulligan: 5 passesKerr and Elding: 5 passesMulligan and Wright: 5 passesElding and Wright: 5 passesElding and Klidje: 5 passesElding and Šuto: 5 passesSallinger and Ivezić: 6 passesPasslack and Šuto: 6 passesPasslack and Kerr: 7 passesIvezić and Chaiwa: 7 passesChaiwa and Mulligan: 7 passesIredale and Mulligan: 8 passesPasslack and Elding: 9 passesPasslack and Wright: 9 passesKerr and Chaiwa: 10 passesIredale and Chaiwa: 10 passesSallinger and Kerr: 11 passesIvezić and Kerr: 12 passesIredale and Klidje: 13 passesIvezić and Iredale: 15 passesSallinger: 11 completed passesPasslack: 23 completed passesIvezić: 27 completed passesKerr: 29 completed passesIredale: 28 completed passesChaiwa: 29 completed passesMulligan: 15 completed passesElding: 17 completed passesWright: 12 completed passesKlidje: 10 completed passesŠuto: 10 completed passes12556151487231822SallingerPasslackIvezićKerrIredaleChaiwaMulliganEldingWrightKlidjeŠutoStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
RawlinsTait10
CiubotaruCameron9
CameronCiubotaru9
TaitRawlins8
CameronRandall8

Hibernian

FromToPasses
IvezićSallinger15
IvezićIredale14
KerrSallinger13
KerrIvezić12
PasslackWright10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

4+1.020+2.18+2.310+3.73−3.110+3.97+1.07−3.610+4.15−0.16+2.03−1.76−1.710+2.97+1.61−2.31−1.72−1.43−2.46+4.04+2.41−0.71+0.62−1.00−1.61+0.40−0.40−0.30−0.42−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Hibernian

5+1.08+2.015+0.95−1.32−2.77+1.92−4.76+0.613+6.79+4.37+2.35+0.72−0.73−2.64+0.19+4.43+1.00−2.63+0.41−2.92−1.01−1.62+0.42−0.61−2.31+0.60−0.40−0.30−0.62+0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.020.010.020.020.010.020.030.040.030.030.060.060.100.030.090.090.09−0.010.010.030.05−0.220.200.010.32LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.010.010.010.040.010.040.020.110.090.010.050.030.040.04−0.010.060.04−0.010.01−0.01−0.05−0.06−0.010.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.23 → 1.25Hibernian1.34 → 1.31Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.47 → 1.43Hibernian1.26 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six30%40%+10
11th10%7%−3
Bottom8%5%−3
Hibernian
Top six62%52%−10
11th3%5%+2
Bottom1%2%+1

From the forecast before the match (10 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Expected goals1.331.33
Win37%36%
Expected Points1.371.36
Clean sheet27%26%

Dundee United 37%Draw 27%Hibernian 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawHibernian win
Dundee United
Top six30%40%28%21%
11th10%7%10%13%
Bottom8%5%7%11%
Hibernian
Top six62%52%61%73%
11th3%5%3%2%
Bottom1%2%2%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  2. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  3. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  4. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13
  5. L0–222 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.19–1.43
  6. L0–49 AugHearts (A)xG 0.58–2.21

Hibernian

  1. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  2. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  3. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  4. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  5. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03
  6. W2–19 AugRangers (A)xG 1.68–2.20

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Position9th10th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠32–⁠1–⁠4
Points8 (1.14 per game)7 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.411.42
Goals9–⁠118–⁠11
xG per game1.61–⁠1.551.70–⁠1.64
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.83–⁠1.390.25, 1.56–⁠1.49
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.44–⁠1.682.00, 1.87–⁠1.85
ManagerJim Goodwin (95)Marink Reedijk (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.23, 6thHibernian1.34, 4thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.47, 8thHibernian1.26, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepDundee United attack: 1.23Hibernian attack: 1.341.341.23HibernianDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepDundee United defence: 1.47Hibernian defence: 1.261.471.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+25%−11%+2%
Counter-attacks+54%−74%−7%−12%
Set pieces+75%−22%+12%−2%
Penalties−25%−25%+125%+50%
Headers+11%−39%−35%+18%
Left side−17%+12%average−4%
Centre−7%+2%−23%+17%
Right side+47%−12%+21%−26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side−17%−26%Centre−7%+17%Right side+47%−4%Open play−33%+2%Counter-attacks+54%−12%Set pieces+75%−2%Headers+11%+18%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft sideaverage−12%Centre−23%+2%Right side+21%+12%Open play−11%+25%Counter-attacks−7%−74%Set pieces+12%−22%Headers−35%−39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedHibernian

1.61xG1.70
1.55xG against1.64
50%Possession50%
16.0Shots16.9
15.7Shots against12.9
5.0Shots on target4.4
2.4Big chances2.3
30.0Touches in the opposition box32.7
404Passes442
79%Pass accuracy81%
6.0Corners7.4
45%Field tilt56%
38.9Final-third entries46.4
13.6Box entries15.7
12.0Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level231.811.27
Ahead261.921.27
Behind411.301.89

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.141.66
Ahead201.552.02
Behind362.311.42

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.413–3
16–300.160.160–1
31–450.450.264–1
46–600.190.310–3
61–750.280.230–3
76–900.290.192–0

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.242–2
31–450.290.390–4
46–600.310.302–0
61–750.340.202–1
76–900.410.431–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Dundee United

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
AgyeiInjuryMid October 20264240
MerghemInjuryEarly October 20264218

Hibernian

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
McGrathInjuryLate October 20263303
MayorInjuryLate October 20265463
MegwaInjuryEarly October 20262113
ObitaInjuryEarly October 20264299
BushiriInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 7Rawlins 6Yoro 1Esselink 7Forbes 7Ferry 5Ciubotaru 2Camará 4Sevelj 3Yoro 2Tait 5Agyei 4Cameron 2Merghem 4Randall 3Sapsford 3Metsoko 2Rose 2Bennie 5Randall 1Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 7Kerr 7O'Hora 2Passlack 1Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Megwa 1Passlack 5Megwa 1Devaney 1Mulligan 7Chaiwa 4Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1McGrath 1Boyle 3Elding 1Wright 1Lowe 4Boyle 1Šuto 1Klidje 2McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 February 2026Hibernian3–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.57–1.73
20 December 2025Dundee United1–1HibernianxG 0.82–1.26
13 September 2025Hibernian3–3Dundee UnitedxG 3.05–1.87
3 May 2025Hibernian3–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.73–1.35
26 February 2025Dundee United1–3HibernianxG 0.71–1.53
3 November 2024Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.09–1.31

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 4, Hibernian won 6, and 6 were drawn. Goals 23–27 and xG 1.06–1.48 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Tait5520000.090.17
Forbes7630100.140.04
Rawlins6540000.010.07
Esselink7602000.060.01

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack6554010.050.24
Mulligan7615010.130.10
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr7630000.130.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.