Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Dundee United 1–1 Falkirk

Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 6 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Dan McFarlane · Attendance 8,935

Dundee United Forbes 90+3'

Falkirk Murrell 4'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
Goals11
xG2.661.27
Expected Points2.260.55

Dundee United 69%Draw 19%Falkirk 12%

Most likely score 2–1, 11%. Final score 1–1, 7%.

Falkirk goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+2%1%4%7%4%1%6%8%2%6%7%2%3%6%4%1%1%3%2%1%11%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTRandall on for Merghem, 19'Iqbal on for Camará and Rose on for Bennie, 57'Farrugia on for Cameron, 68'Yoro on for Sapsford, 69'Meļņiks on for Henderson, 57'Doherty on for Ross, 58'Gardner on for Murrell and Parkinson on for Krauhaus, 65'Fodrey on for Eames, 77'Forbes 90+3'Murrell 4'Dundee United 2.66Falkirk 1.2701230153045607590HTRandall on for Merghem, 19'Iqbal on for Camará and Rose on for Bennie, 57'Farrugia on for Cameron, 68'Yoro on for Sapsford, 69'Meļņiks on for Henderson, 57'Doherty on for Ross, 58'Gardner on for Murrell and Parkinson on for Krauhaus, 65'Fodrey on for Eames, 77'Forbes 90+3'Murrell 4'2.661.27Dundee UnitedFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedFalkirk

2.66 +1.26xG1.27 +0.60
2.89 +1.72xG on target1.05 +0.72
27 +12.6Shots12 +2.5
9 +5.6Shots on target4 +2.0
2 −0.4Big chances1 0.0
41 +12Touches in the opposition box21 −2
62% +12Possession38% −10
457 +53Passes287 −134
75% −4Pass accuracy63% −16
65% +24Field tilt35% −10
40 +1Final-third entries19 −20
16 +2.4Box entries7 −1.0
9.1 −2Passes per defensive action11.9 0
14 +9.8Corners5 +0.8
16 −2Tackles20 +2
5 −6.4Interceptions12 +2.5
27 −4Clearances41 +20
3 −1.0Saves8 +4.2
16 +5Fouls14 −1
2 +0.4Offsides1 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Sapsford 29', 0.68 xGBennie 45+2', 0.37 xGRose 70', 0.20 xGFarrugia 81', 0.14 xGCameron 45+1', 0.13 xGCamará 45+1', 0.12 xGRandall 61', 0.11 xGTait 79', 0.11 xGBennie 51', 0.09 xGForbes 70', 0.08 xGRose 90+1', 0.07 xGBennie 42', 0.05 xGTait 44', 0.05 xGBennie 20', 0.04 xGRandall 62', 0.04 xGForbes 78', 0.04 xGRandall 90+4', 0.04 xGCiubotaru 20', 0.03 xGSapsford 40', 0.03 xGCameron 45+2', 0.03 xGIqbal 62', 0.03 xGIqbal 69', 0.03 xGCiubotaru 47', 0.02 xGRandall 82', 0.02 xGCameron 36', 0.01 xGForbes 84', 0.01 xGForbes 90+3', 0.10 xG, goal54%1.45 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 1.45 xG, 0 goals22%0.59 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal14%0.37 xGWide in the box: 8 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals10%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Strain 8', 0.50 xGEames 34', 0.17 xGDoherty 90+4', 0.12 xGMurrell 8', 0.10 xGRoss 14', 0.09 xGBarbrook 3', 0.06 xGStrain 10', 0.03 xGEames 14', 0.03 xGEames 45+3', 0.03 xGHenderson 24', 0.02 xGEames 73', 0.02 xGMurrell 4', 0.10 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals39%0.49 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.49 xG, 1 goal49%0.62 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals13%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedFalkirk

0.63 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.09 9 shots, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
2.01 18 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.18 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
5 min (5%) · Dundee United 0.04, Falkirk 0.28 xG
Falkirk ahead
92 min (95%) · Dundee United 2.62, Falkirk 0.99 xG

Line-ups

12331819810167977WaltonRawlinsEsselinkForbesCiubotaruCamaráTaitCameronMerghemSapsfordBennieGoalYellow cardYellow card57'68'19'69'57'Dundee United 4-3-3Jim Goodwin1922155381623284224BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannSpencerBarbrookRossKrauhausEamesMurrellYellow cardGoal57'58'65'77'65'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Dundee United substitutes

  • 19' Randall for Merghem
  • 57' Iqbal for Camará
  • 57' Rose for Bennie · yellow card 64'
  • 68' Farrugia for Cameron
  • 69' Yoro for Sapsford · 1 assist

Falkirk substitutes

  • 57' Meļņiks for Henderson
  • 58' Doherty for Ross
  • 65' Parkinson for Krauhaus · yellow card 88'
  • 65' Gardner for Murrell
  • 77' Fodrey for Eames

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0000.0010
RawlinsRB900.000.1510.05712
EsselinkCB900.000.0210.0667
ForbesCB9010.230.1720.25410
CiubotaruLB900.060.0300.0389
CamaráCM570.120.2310.2133
Tait CM900.160.6860.35144
CameronCM680.160.0310.0642
MerghemRW190.000.0000.0010
Sapsford ST690.710.031−0.0411
BennieLW570.560.0100.0111
RandallFW710.210.3150.1262
IqbalMF330.060.0310.0211
Rose FW330.260.0410.0001
FarrugiaMF220.140.0300.0430
YoroMF2110.000.2820.2010

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0000
StrainRB9010.530.2020.121110
NeilsonCB900.000.0000.02412
HendersonCB570.020.0000.0109
McCannLB900.000.0400.1255
Spencer DM900.000.2030.1528
BarbrookDM900.060.0300.01210
RossRW580.090.0210.0612
KrauhausAM650.000.010−0.0113
EamesLW770.250.0910.0323
MurrellST6510.200.010−0.0111
MeļņiksDF330.000.0000.00011
DohertyFW320.120.000−0.0602
Parkinson FW250.000.0000.0013
GardnerFW250.000.0000.0001
FodreyFW130.000.1010.0711

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Bain and Henderson: 3 passesStrain and Eames: 3 passesHenderson and Barbrook: 3 passesMcCann and Murrell: 3 passesBarbrook and Eames: 3 passesSpencer and Krauhaus: 3 passesSpencer and Eames: 3 passesRoss and Murrell: 3 passesKrauhaus and Eames: 3 passesStrain and Neilson: 4 passesNeilson and Barbrook: 4 passesHenderson and Spencer: 4 passesHenderson and Eames: 4 passesMcCann and Spencer: 4 passesBarbrook and Krauhaus: 4 passesHenderson and McCann: 6 passesBarbrook and Spencer: 6 passesStrain and Barbrook: 7 passesMcCann and Barbrook: 7 passesStrain and Spencer: 8 passesStrain and Murrell: 8 passesMcCann and Eames: 9 passesStrain and Krauhaus: 10 passesBain: 7 completed passesStrain: 26 completed passesNeilson: 9 completed passesHenderson: 11 completed passesMcCann: 19 completed passesBarbrook: 19 completed passesSpencer: 20 completed passesRoss: 6 completed passesKrauhaus: 14 completed passesEames: 13 completed passesMurrell: 7 completed passes1922155316823284224BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannBarbrookSpencerRossKrauhausEamesMurrellStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
ForbesEsselink14
TaitEsselink12
ForbesCiubotaru11
EsselinkRawlins11
EsselinkForbes9

Falkirk

FromToPasses
StrainMurrell7
KrauhausStrain6
EamesMcCann5
SpencerStrain5
StrainSpencer5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

2−0.45−3.08+2.44−2.65−0.88+2.84−3.011+0.46+1.06+0.82−2.86+1.211+3.89+1.65−0.43+0.22−0.88+5.24−1.00−2.22+0.620.00−0.62−0.82+0.40−0.80−0.60−0.40−0.412−6.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Falkirk

1−3.210+4.017+4.512+6.23−0.512+6.05−0.55+0.59+1.87−0.59+0.85−0.55+2.57+4.07+1.27+1.26+1.85+2.24+1.24−1.86+3.24+3.21−1.81−1.21−4.510.00−1.00−2.51+0.20−1.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.030.010.020.020.060.020.050.090.050.030.050.010.010.15−0.120.110.010.200.240.25LessMore

Falkirk

0.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.08−0.010.080.030.020.090.030.04−0.01−0.050.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackDundee United1.19 → 1.20Falkirk1.16 → 1.14Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.53 → 1.50Falkirk1.47 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six13%11%−2
11th15%16%+1
Bottom11%12%+1
Falkirk
Top six18%16%−2
11th13%12%−1
Bottom11%11%0

From the forecast before the match (5 September 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
Expected goals1.491.18
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.581.15
Clean sheet31%23%

Dundee United 44%Draw 27%Falkirk 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Falkirk goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 September 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawFalkirk win
Dundee United
Top six13%18%11%8%
11th15%11%16%20%
Bottom11%8%12%15%
Falkirk
Top six18%13%16%26%
11th13%16%12%9%
Bottom11%13%11%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  2. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13
  3. L0–222 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.19–1.43
  4. L0–49 AugHearts (A)xG 0.58–2.21
  5. D1–131 JulRangers (H)xG 1.64–1.46
  6. D1–117 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 0.50–1.02

Falkirk

  1. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  2. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45
  3. D0–09 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.27
  4. L0–21 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.55–1.57
  5. L2–516 MayRangers (H)xG 2.46–2.54
  6. L0–313 MayHearts (A)xG 0.28–0.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
Position9th11th
Played54
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠30–⁠1–⁠3
Points4 (0.80 per game)1 (0.25 per game)
Expected Points per game1.160.60
Goals5–⁠102–⁠6
xG per game1.40–⁠1.720.67–⁠1.97
Home: points, xG per game0.50, 1.42–⁠1.440.00, 0.78–⁠1.57
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.39–⁠1.910.50, 0.56–⁠2.36
ManagerJim Goodwin (93)John McGlynn (42)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackDundee United1.19, 6thFalkirk1.16, 8thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.53, 9thFalkirk1.47, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepDundee United attack: 1.19Falkirk attack: 1.161.191.16FalkirkDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepDundee United defence: 1.53Falkirk defence: 1.471.531.47

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−44%+32%−27%+44%
Counter-attacks+71%−61%−48%+15%
Set pieces+12%−4%−56%−40%
Penalties+4%+1%−76%−64%
Headers+8%−30%−58%−31%
Left side−57%+14%−56%+35%
Centre−19%+17%−28%−7%
Right side+42%−4%−35%+47%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdFalkirk concededLeft side−57%+47%Centre−19%−7%Right side+42%+35%Open play−44%+44%Counter-attacks+71%+15%Set pieces+12%−40%Headers+8%−31%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee United concededLeft side−56%−4%Centre−28%+17%Right side−35%+14%Open play−27%+32%Counter-attacks−48%−61%Set pieces−56%−4%Headers−58%−30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedFalkirk

1.40xG0.67
1.72xG against1.97
50%Possession48%
14.4Shots9.5
17.6Shots against15.2
3.4Shots on target2.0
2.4Big chances1.0
28.8Touches in the opposition box23.0
404Passes422
79%Pass accuracy79%
4.2Corners4.2
41%Field tilt45%
39.2Final-third entries39.0
13.6Box entries8.0
11.4Passes per defensive action11.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.571.18
Ahead192.621.44
Behind410.702.25

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level370.881.74
Ahead0––
Behind530.512.12

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.381–2
16–300.080.220–1
31–450.390.293–1
46–600.210.410–3
61–750.240.300–3
76–900.270.121–0

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.270–3
16–300.120.330–1
31–450.040.391–0
46–600.130.200–0
61–750.240.431–0
76–900.100.340–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 5Rawlins 4Yoro 1Esselink 5Forbes 5Ferry 5Sevelj 3Yoro 2Agyei 4Tait 3Camará 3Merghem 3Randall 2Sapsford 2Rose 2Metsoko 1Bennie 3Sapsford 1Randall 14-3-3 in every start

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 4Strain 4Neilson 3Melniks 1Henderson 4McCann 3Tanser 1Barbrook 3McMillan 1Spencer 2Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 1Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 2Yeats 2Ross 2Fodrey 1Laidlaw 1Parkinson 2Murrell 1MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 February 2026Falkirk2–3Dundee UnitedxG 0.94–1.09
22 November 2025Dundee United0–3FalkirkxG 0.74–1.78
3 August 2025Falkirk2–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.02–1.19

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 1, Falkirk won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–7 and xG 1.01–1.58 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sapsford342,9361020.370.10
Ferry373,310570.050.26
Farrugia10985000.120.13
Sevelj322,800030.130.09

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver10861310.320.15
Ross101,167110.170.08
Yeats191,443200.080.07
Spencer393,390020.040.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.