Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 3–2 Dundee United

Wednesday 4 February 2026, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 25 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 17,655

Hibernian Boyle 36', Graham 89' (og), Suto 90+3'

Dundee United Graham 74', Watters 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianDundee United
Goals32
xG2.571.73
Expected Points1.930.84

Hibernian 57%Draw 22%Dundee United 21%

Most likely score 2–2, 10%. Final score 3–2, 8%.

Dundee United goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%6%5%3%1%4%5%2%4%5%2%2%4%4%2%2%2%10%10%9%8%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTAndrews on for Barlaser and Suto on for Scarlett, 63'Cadden on for Obita, 66'Megwa on for Passlack and Campbell on for Boyle, 73'Farrugia on for Möller, 62'Watters on for Sapsford, 76'Dolcek on for Trapanovski, 86'Boyle 36'Graham 89' (og)Suto 90+3'Graham 74'Watters 81'Hibernian 2.57Dundee United 1.7301230153045607590HTAndrews on for Barlaser and Suto on for Scarlett, 63'Cadden on for Obita, 66'Megwa on for Passlack and Campbell on for Boyle, 73'Farrugia on for Möller, 62'Watters on for Sapsford, 76'Dolcek on for Trapanovski, 86'Boyle 36'Graham 89' (og)Suto 90+3'Graham 74'Watters 81'2.571.73HibernianDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianDundee United

2.57 +0.86xG1.73 +0.51
2.44 +0.88xG on target1.17 −0.11
21 +8Shots16 +4
4 −1.2Shots on target4 −0.3
2 −0.5Big chances4 +2.1
32 +7Touches in the opposition box23 −1
50% +2Possession50% +9
362 −41Passes358 +50
75% −4Pass accuracy74% +5
70% +23Field tilt30% −6
33 −4Final-third entries33 +2
18 +7Box entries7 −5
19.0 +2Passes per defensive action20.2 +6
4 −1.2Corners6 +1.6
9 −4Tackles9 −8
10 +1.7Interceptions3 −7.1
32 +3Clearances31 −5
2 −1.0Saves1 −2.7
8 −3Fouls11 −2
1 −0.8Offsides2 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Boyle 57', 0.37 xGBushiri 86', 0.20 xGBushiri 11', 0.15 xGYouan 4', 0.10 xGScarlett 29', 0.09 xGGarananga 11', 0.08 xGYouan 19', 0.08 xGScarlett 57', 0.08 xGScarlett 31', 0.06 xGPasslack 28', 0.05 xGObita 40', 0.05 xGYouan 46', 0.05 xGChaiwa 49', 0.05 xGCadden 90+2', 0.04 xGYouan 7', 0.03 xGBarlaser 24', 0.03 xGBarlaser 60', 0.03 xGScarlett 1', 0.02 xGYouan 89', 0.89 xG, goalSuto 90+3', 0.08 xG, goalBoyle 36', 0.06 xG, goal60%1.54 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 1.54 xG, 1 goal18%0.45 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.45 xG, 2 goals11%0.27 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals9%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals3%0.07 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Sapsford 47', 0.28 xGSibbald 20', 0.19 xGSapsford 35', 0.12 xGCleall-Harding 2', 0.08 xGSapsford 45+1', 0.08 xGGraham 3', 0.07 xGSapsford 20', 0.07 xGTrapanovski 16', 0.05 xGSapsford 71', 0.05 xGTrapanovski 2', 0.04 xGSibbald 90+5', 0.04 xGCleall-Harding 9', 0.03 xGMöller 22', 0.02 xGTrapanovski 27', 0.02 xGWatters 81', 0.37 xG, goalGraham 74', 0.22 xG, goal46%0.79 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.79 xG, 2 goals44%0.76 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.76 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals5%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianDundee United

0.48 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.74 9 shots, 0 goals
0.53 4 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
1.57 8 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.99 7 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
47 min (49%) · Hibernian 0.86, Dundee United 1.07 xG
Hibernian ahead
41 min (43%) · Hibernian 0.62, Dundee United 0.67 xG
Dundee United ahead
8 min (8%) · Hibernian 1.08, Dundee United 0.00 xG

Line-ups

14233152522142110447SallingerGaranangaBushiriIredalePasslackBarlaserChaiwaObitaBoyleScarlettYouanYellow cardGoalYellow card73'63'66'73'63'Hibernian 3-4-3David Gray137623222114119777Maynard-BrewerCleall-HardingGrahamKeresztesNaamoStephensonSibbaldFerrySapsfordMöllerTrapanovskiGoalOwn goal76'62'86'Dundee United 3-4-3Jim Goodwin

Hibernian substitutes

  • 63' Andrews for Barlaser
  • 63' Suto for Scarlett · goal 90+3'
  • 66' Cadden for Obita · 1 assist
  • 73' Campbell for Boyle
  • 73' Megwa for Passlack

Dundee United substitutes

  • 62' Farrugia for Möller
  • 76' Watters for Sapsford · goal 81'
  • 86' Dolcek for Trapanovski

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0461
GaranangaCB900.080.0000.02214
BushiriCB900.350.010−0.06014
IredaleCB900.000.0500.0558
Passlack RWB730.050.4210.1823
BarlaserCM630.050.3740.36120
ChaiwaCM900.050.0300.0353
ObitaLWB660.050.2330.0345
BoyleRW7310.440.0430.1010
Scarlett ST6310.240.2030.0742
YouanLW901.150.2320.1082
AndrewsMF270.000.0200.0212
SutoFW2710.080.1300.0110
CaddenMF2410.040.0610.0220
CampbellMF170.000.0000.0004
MegwaMF170.000.0000.0002

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Maynard-BrewerGK900.000.0000.0211
Cleall-HardingCB900.110.0400.09611
GrahamCB9010.300.0000.0648
KeresztesCB900.000.0520.05312
NaamoRWB900.000.0000.0035
StephensonCM900.000.0200.0564
SibbaldCM900.220.0100.0220
FerryLWB900.000.2450.23105
SapsfordRW760.600.0000.0820
MöllerST620.020.0100.0001
TrapanovskiLW8610.110.2620.31153
FarrugiaFW280.000.0000.0110
WattersFW1410.370.011−0.0100
DolcekFW40.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Sallinger and Scarlett: 5 passesIredale and Youan: 5 passesGarananga and Chaiwa: 5 passesPasslack and Scarlett: 5 passesChaiwa and Scarlett: 5 passesBushiri and Barlaser: 6 passesGarananga and Passlack: 6 passesPasslack and Barlaser: 6 passesSallinger and Iredale: 7 passesBushiri and Garananga: 7 passesGarananga and Barlaser: 7 passesPasslack and Chaiwa: 7 passesChaiwa and Youan: 7 passesIredale and Bushiri: 8 passesScarlett and Youan: 8 passesSallinger and Bushiri: 9 passesObita and Barlaser: 10 passesBarlaser and Youan: 10 passesIredale and Barlaser: 11 passesChaiwa and Boyle: 11 passesIredale and Obita: 12 passesObita and Youan: 12 passesSallinger and Garananga: 13 passesBarlaser and Chaiwa: 15 passesSallinger: 18 completed passesIredale: 26 completed passesBushiri: 20 completed passesGarananga: 22 completed passesPasslack: 16 completed passesObita: 22 completed passesBarlaser: 36 completed passesChaiwa: 30 completed passesBoyle: 12 completed passesScarlett: 13 completed passesYouan: 22 completed passes11533422521221410447SallingerIredaleBushiriGaranangaPasslackObitaBarlaserChaiwaBoyleScarlettYouanStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Dundee United

Maynard-Brewer and Keresztes: 3 passesMaynard-Brewer and Graham: 3 passesGraham and Naamo: 3 passesCleall-Harding and Sibbald: 3 passesNaamo and Ferry: 3 passesNaamo and Stephenson: 3 passesFerry and Sapsford: 3 passesFerry and Möller: 3 passesStephenson and Möller: 3 passesMöller and Trapanovski: 3 passesMaynard-Brewer and Möller: 4 passesGraham and Trapanovski: 4 passesCleall-Harding and Naamo: 4 passesFerry and Sibbald: 4 passesStephenson and Trapanovski: 4 passesKeresztes and Stephenson: 6 passesCleall-Harding and Sapsford: 6 passesKeresztes and Trapanovski: 7 passesNaamo and Sapsford: 7 passesKeresztes and Ferry: 8 passesFerry and Stephenson: 9 passesCleall-Harding and Stephenson: 10 passesGraham and Stephenson: 15 passesFerry and Trapanovski: 15 passesGraham and Cleall-Harding: 18 passesKeresztes and Graham: 22 passesMaynard-Brewer: 9 completed passesKeresztes: 26 completed passesGraham: 39 completed passesCleall-Harding: 26 completed passesNaamo: 11 completed passesFerry: 26 completed passesStephenson: 29 completed passesSibbald: 6 completed passesSapsford: 9 completed passesMöller: 4 completed passesTrapanovski: 17 completed passes123637221121149777Maynard-BrewerKeresztesGrahamCleall-HardingNaamoFerryStephensonSibbaldSapsfordMöllerTrapanovskiStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriSallinger9
GaranangaSallinger9
ChaiwaBarlaser9
BushiriIredale8
GaranangaBushiri8

Dundee United

FromToPasses
TrapanovskiFerry14
Cleall-HardingGraham13
GrahamKeresztes13
KeresztesGraham12
GrahamCleall-Harding10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

5+1.96−0.221+7.05−2.62−1.94−1.414+6.910+2.75−1.21−5.04−1.15+0.230.06+1.87+2.63−0.81−2.53+0.54+1.63−1.01−1.50−1.91−0.51−0.11−1.20−0.70−0.80−0.62+1.53+2.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Dundee United

9+3.94−3.95−0.210+3.37−1.34−3.78+0.13−3.82−3.34−0.63−1.85−1.04−2.22−1.32−1.95+2.04−0.26+2.40−2.10−1.91+0.13+1.01−0.61+0.40−0.40−0.80−0.40−1.13−5.313−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.020.020.040.020.030.01−0.010.020.040.03−0.010.030.050.080.05−0.020.040.070.080.17−0.06−0.040.27LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.030.020.030.020.030.030.050.010.030.040.06−0.010.010.030.140.090.060.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackHibernian1.48 → 1.50Dundee United1.08 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14 → 1.14Dundee United1.56 → 1.59

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six99%>99%+1
Dundee United
Top six4%2%−2
11th7%8%+1
Falkirk
Top six91%92%+1

From the forecast before the match (4 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianDundee United
Expected goals2.090.84
Win66%13%
Expected Points2.190.61
Clean sheet43%12%

Hibernian 66%Draw 21%Dundee United 13%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Dundee United goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%7%3%4%4%1%2%1%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawDundee United win
Hibernian
Top six99%>99%99%98%
Dundee United
Top six4%2%4%10%
11th7%8%6%3%
Falkirk
Top six91%92%89%86%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D0–01 FebRangers (H)xG 1.88–0.58
  2. L1–424 JanFalkirk (A)xG 0.73–3.64
  3. D1–110 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.31–1.03
  4. W3–13 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 2.78–0.44
  5. W2–030 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.64–0.57
  6. W3–227 DecHearts (H)xG 1.51–1.78

Dundee United

  1. L0–331 JanHearts (H)xG 0.18–4.39
  2. L0–410 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.34–3.18
  3. L0–13 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.50–1.83
  4. W3–130 DecLivingston (A)xG 3.25–0.45
  5. D1–127 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.80–1.10
  6. D1–120 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.82–1.26

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianDundee United
Position5th8th
Played2423
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠9–⁠65–⁠10–⁠8
Points36 (1.50 per game)25 (1.09 per game)
Expected Points per game1.761.04
Goals38–⁠2828–⁠37
xG per game1.71–⁠1.191.22–⁠1.85
Home: points, xG per game1.67, 2.03–⁠0.911.08, 1.26–⁠2.18
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 1.38–⁠1.471.09, 1.17–⁠1.49
ManagerDavid Gray (64)Jim Goodwin (73)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackHibernian1.48, 4thDundee United1.08, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14, 5thDundee United1.56, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian attack: 1.48Dundee United attack: 1.081.481.08Dundee UnitedHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian defence: 1.14Dundee United defence: 1.561.561.14

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−3%+1%−34%+51%
Counter-attacks+106%−13%+43%−19%
Set pieces+18%−43%+11%+6%
Penalties+100%−43%−11%+49%
Headers+13%−32%−24%+18%
Left side+23%+8%+8%+41%
Centre+14%−15%−27%+33%
Right side+8%−26%−3%+16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft side+23%+16%Centre+14%+33%Right side+8%+41%Open play−3%+51%Counter-attacks+106%−19%Set pieces+18%+6%Headers+13%+18%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side+8%−26%Centre−27%−15%Right side−3%+8%Open play−34%+1%Counter-attacks+43%−13%Set pieces+11%−43%Headers−24%−32%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianDundee United

1.71xG1.22
1.19xG against1.85
48%Possession41%
13.4Shots12.5
11.4Shots against16.7
5.2Shots on target4.3
2.5Big chances1.9
24.9Touches in the opposition box24.1
403Passes308
80%Pass accuracy69%
5.2Corners4.4
47%Field tilt36%
37.0Final-third entries30.8
11.3Box entries11.6
16.7Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.541.15
Ahead291.881.15
Behind181.811.35

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.241.63
Ahead171.182.35
Behind281.201.90

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.084–2
16–300.230.247–6
31–450.290.267–7
46–600.390.139–4
61–750.270.123–3
76–900.310.378–6

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.213–3
16–300.120.293–11
31–450.190.377–6
46–600.250.274–5
61–750.250.346–5
76–900.220.365–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 20Smith 4O'Hora 15Bushiri 14Mitchell 1Hanley 19Iredale 21Obita 2Cadden 13Megwa 7Mulligan 4Mulligan 16Chaiwa 6Newell 1Barlaser 15Jamie McGrath 6Levitt 4Cadden 12Obita 8Jamie McGrath 4Jamie McGrath 8Boyle 4Barlaser 4Boyle 13Klidje 7Bowie 19Youan 4Hoilett 33-4-1-2 in 13 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (13), 3-1-4-2 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 12Richards 10Maynard-Brewer 1Iovu 16Cleall-Harding 2Sevelj 2Esselink 18Graham 7Keresztes 21Stephenson 11Strain 6Naamo 3Sevelj 14Sibbald 16Camará 10Stephenson 5Ferry 20Keresztes 1Naamo 1Dolcek 7Sapsford 6Fatah 4Sapsford 11Möller 5Watters 5Fatah 11Sapsford 5Trapanovski 23-4-3 in 12 of 23 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (12), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 December 2025Dundee United1–1HibernianxG 0.82–1.26
13 September 2025Hibernian3–3Dundee UnitedxG 3.05–1.87
3 May 2025Hibernian3–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.73–1.35
26 February 2025Dundee United1–3HibernianxG 0.71–1.53
3 November 2024Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.09–1.31
19 October 2024Dundee United3–2HibernianxG 1.79–0.71

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 5, Dundee United won 4, and 6 were drawn. Goals 24–21 and xG 1.40–1.01 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan5554410.570.18
Klidje7735310.660.04
Campbell2457130.310.24
Boyle171,356400.460.09

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watters7519110.500.10
Sapsford221,831610.330.08
Dolcek10866510.270.13
Fatah151,285430.190.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.