Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 3–3 Dundee United

Saturday 13 September 2025, 17:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 5 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Dan McFarlane · Attendance 19,265

Hibernian Kucherenko 27' (og), Bowie 51', McGrath 86' (pen)

Dundee United Stephenson 15', 48', Sapsford 44' · Sevelj sent off 84'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianDundee United
Goals33
xG3.051.87
Non-penalty xG2.261.87
Expected Points2.130.67

Hibernian 64%Draw 20%Dundee United 15%

Most likely score 3–2, 10%. Final score 3–3, 6%.

Dundee United goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+4%4%2%1%4%1%2%6%1%1%7%7%4%1%3%4%2%1%2%8%10%9%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTSevelj (Dundee United), red card 84'Hoilett on for C. Cadden and Barlaser on for Levitt, 55'Klidje on for Boyle, 56'Campbell on for McGrath, 87'Obita on for Iredale, 88'Möller on for Fatah, 73'Naamo on for Dolcek, 74'Sibbald on for Iovu, 89'Eskesen on for Sapsford, 90+5'Kucherenko 27' (og)Bowie 51'McGrath 86' (pen)Stephenson 15'Sapsford 44'Stephenson 48'Hibernian 3.05Dundee United 1.87012340153045607590HTSevelj (Dundee United), red card 84'Hoilett on for C. Cadden and Barlaser on for Levitt, 55'Klidje on for Boyle, 56'Campbell on for McGrath, 87'Obita on for Iredale, 88'Möller on for Fatah, 73'Naamo on for Dolcek, 74'Sibbald on for Iovu, 89'Eskesen on for Sapsford, 90+5'Kucherenko 27' (og)Bowie 51'McGrath 86' (pen)Stephenson 15'Sapsford 44'Stephenson 48'3.051.87HibernianDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianDundee United

3.05 +1.18xG1.87 +0.93
2.26Non-penalty xG1.87
2.48 +0.76xG on target3.87 +2.75
27 +13Shots13 +2
11 +6.0Shots on target9 +4.0
5 +2.3Big chances5 +3.3
37 +7Touches in the opposition box19 +2
55% −6Possession45% +4
363 −173Passes310 −15
80% −6Pass accuracy74% −3
54% −13Field tilt46% +7
34 −12Final-third entries27 0
16 +2.7Box entries11 +1.3
13.1 −4Passes per defensive action12.2 −6
6 −2.3Corners4 +1.3
11 +2.3Tackles15 −5.3
7 +1.3Interceptions10 +3.3
24 −1Clearances27 −17
6 +5.3Saves8 +5.7
11 +2.7Fouls20 +7.7
1 −0.3Offsides4 +2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Hoilett 57', 0.30 xGBowie 81', 0.26 xGHoilett 77', 0.19 xGBowie 72', 0.13 xGBoyle 12', 0.08 xGBowie 43', 0.08 xGN. Cadden 25', 0.07 xGHoilett 57', 0.07 xGMcGrath 2', 0.06 xGMulligan 42', 0.06 xGBoyle 14', 0.05 xGMcGrath 6', 0.04 xGBoyle 20', 0.04 xGBoyle 36', 0.04 xGMcGrath 39', 0.04 xGMulligan 45+2', 0.04 xGN. Cadden 77', 0.04 xGBowie 89', 0.04 xGLevitt 19', 0.02 xGBowie 38', 0.02 xGMcGrath 61', 0.02 xGKlidje 88', 0.02 xGHoilett 90+6', 0.02 xGBowie 54', 0.01 xGN. Cadden 62', 0.01 xGBowie 50', 0.52 xG, goal20%0.45 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals59%1.34 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.34 xG, 1 goal7%0.16 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals11%0.25 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Sapsford 79', 0.11 xGSevelj 64', 0.10 xGCamara 79', 0.09 xGFatah 60', 0.07 xGStephenson 90+2', 0.06 xGStephenson 32', 0.04 xGFatah 69', 0.04 xGSapsford 31', 0.03 xGCamara 66', 0.02 xGDolcek 53', 0.01 xGSapsford 44', 0.83 xG, goalStephenson 47', 0.26 xG, goalStephenson 15', 0.23 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%1.42 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 1.42 xG, 3 goals11%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals13%0.25 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianDundee United

1.39 14 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.87 9 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.96 3 shots, 1 goal
0.88 12 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
43 min (43%) · Hibernian 0.54, Dundee United 1.18 xG
Dundee United ahead
56 min (57%) · Hibernian 2.51, Dundee United 0.69 xG

Line-ups

1312533151910206179SmithC. CaddenO'HoraBushiriIredaleN. CaddenBoyleMulliganLevittMcGrathBowieYellow cardGoalGoal55'88'56'55'87'Hibernian 5-4-1David Gray1432321581119917KucherenkoIovuEsselinkKeresztesStephensonSeveljCamaraFerryDolcekSapsfordFatahOwn goalYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow cardSent offGoalYellow card89'74'90+5'73'Dundee United 3-4-3Jim Goodwin

Hibernian substitutes

  • 55' Barlaser for Levitt
  • 55' Hoilett for C. Cadden
  • 56' Klidje for Boyle
  • 87' Campbell for McGrath · yellow card 90+7'
  • 88' Obita for Iredale

Dundee United substitutes

  • 73' Möller for Fatah
  • 74' Naamo for Dolcek
  • 89' Sibbald for Iovu
  • 90+5' Eskesen for Sapsford

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SmithGK900.000.0000.0122
C. CaddenRWB550.000.0210.0212
O'HoraCB900.000.0510.07014
BushiriCB900.000.0100.0346
IredaleCB880.000.0300.0657
N. CaddenLWB900.120.2120.36141
BoyleRM560.210.1610.1040
Mulligan CM900.100.0600.1361
LevittCM550.020.0010.0343
McGrathLM8710.950.0420.1793
BowieST9011.060.1730.1231
BarlaserMF350.000.010−0.0620
HoilettMF350.570.1920.2140
KlidjeFW340.020.0110.0002
Campbell MF30.000.000––0
ObitaDF20.000.0510.1930

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KucherenkoGK900.000.0000.0334
Iovu CB890.000.0000.03413
Esselink CB900.000.0000.0337
KeresztesCB900.000.0100.05611
StephensonRWB9020.580.010−0.0113
Sevelj CM840.100.0100.0432
CamaraCM900.100.0220.0874
FerryLWB9010.000.2310.2837
DolcekRW7410.010.2940.1422
SapsfordST9010.960.0610.0520
Fatah LW7310.110.1610.2692
MöllerFW170.000.1910.0611
NaamoDF160.000.0000.0000
SibbaldMF10.000.0000.0000
EskesenMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Smith and Levitt: 3 passesBushiri and Mulligan: 3 passesO'Hora and Bowie: 3 passesC. Cadden and McGrath: 3 passesC. Cadden and Bowie: 3 passesN. Cadden and Mulligan: 3 passesLevitt and Bowie: 3 passesSmith and Iredale: 4 passesLevitt and Mulligan: 4 passesIredale and N. Cadden: 5 passesO'Hora and C. Cadden: 5 passesO'Hora and Levitt: 5 passesO'Hora and Boyle: 5 passesBoyle and Bowie: 5 passesMulligan and Bowie: 6 passesN. Cadden and McGrath: 8 passesLevitt and McGrath: 8 passesMcGrath and Bowie: 8 passesIredale and Levitt: 12 passesIredale and McGrath: 14 passesSmith and Bushiri: 15 passesBushiri and Levitt: 15 passesIredale and Bushiri: 17 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 18 passesSmith: 14 completed passesIredale: 29 completed passesBushiri: 39 completed passesO'Hora: 22 completed passesC. Cadden: 9 completed passesN. Cadden: 10 completed passesLevitt: 30 completed passesMulligan: 10 completed passesBoyle: 5 completed passesMcGrath: 22 completed passesBowie: 14 completed passes1315335121962010179SmithIredaleBushiriO'HoraC. CaddenN. CaddenLevittMulliganBoyleMcGrathBowieStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee United

Keresztes and Iovu: 4 passesSevelj and Sapsford: 4 passesKucherenko and Keresztes: 5 passesKeresztes and Sevelj: 5 passesCamara and Sapsford: 5 passesDolcek and Sapsford: 5 passesDolcek and Fatah: 5 passesKeresztes and Ferry: 6 passesKeresztes and Fatah: 6 passesKeresztes and Esselink: 7 passesIovu and Esselink: 7 passesStephenson and Sevelj: 7 passesFerry and Camara: 7 passesSevelj and Dolcek: 7 passesSapsford and Fatah: 7 passesKucherenko and Iovu: 8 passesKucherenko and Esselink: 8 passesIovu and Stephenson: 8 passesStephenson and Dolcek: 8 passesSevelj and Camara: 8 passesCamara and Dolcek: 8 passesFerry and Fatah: 9 passesKeresztes and Camara: 10 passesEsselink and Camara: 10 passesIovu and Camara: 12 passesKucherenko: 13 completed passesKeresztes: 28 completed passesIovu: 24 completed passesEsselink: 23 completed passesStephenson: 12 completed passesFerry: 16 completed passesSevelj: 22 completed passesCamara: 35 completed passesDolcek: 16 completed passesSapsford: 12 completed passesFatah: 15 completed passes1234321115819917KucherenkoKeresztesIovuEsselinkStephensonFerrySeveljCamaraDolcekSapsfordFatahStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriO'Hora13
BushiriIredale12
McGrathN. Cadden12
IredaleMcGrath10
SmithBushiri10

Dundee United

FromToPasses
EsselinkKucherenko8
DolcekStephenson7
FerryFatah7
IovuCamara6
CamaraIovu6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

30.05+0.77−2.75−1.03−2.32−2.04−3.03−0.74−1.07+2.34−0.74−1.34+1.38+4.02−2.74+0.34−0.37+5.38+7.03−0.71−1.31+0.72+1.30−0.70−4.30−0.32+1.31+0.70−1.00−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Dundee United

4−4.75−3.315−3.08+3.38+4.38−1.714+6.35−4.36−6.340.03−1.36+2.78+3.78+1.32−0.33−1.720.06+3.33+0.72+0.72+1.00−1.76+5.34+3.30−0.72+2.01+0.300.010.03−9.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.010.030.010.040.010.040.030.050.060.180.030.040.100.11−0.010.12−0.070.55LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.040.060.030.010.040.010.070.060.02−0.01−0.010.050.010.300.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackHibernian1.52 → 1.55Dundee United1.19 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.17 → 1.18Dundee United1.47 → 1.49

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six91%89%−2
11th<1%<1%0
Dundee United
Top six35%38%+3
11th8%7%−1
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (13 September 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianDundee United
Expected goals1.920.92
Win60%17%
Expected Points2.030.74
Clean sheet40%15%

Hibernian 60%Draw 23%Dundee United 17%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 52%.

Dundee United goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%5%2%5%1%5%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 September 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawDundee United win
Hibernian
Top six91%94%89%84%
11th<1%<1%<1%1%
Dundee United
Top six35%30%38%49%
11th8%8%7%4%
Bottom4%5%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D1–131 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.42–0.85
  2. D2–210 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 1.77–0.94
  3. W2–13 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.42–0.13
  4. D2–217 MayRangers (H)xG 1.29–2.62
  5. D2–214 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.34–0.70
  6. L1–310 MayCeltic (A)xG 0.82–2.26

Dundee United

  1. W2–031 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.91–0.12
  2. L2–310 AugHearts (H)xG 0.71–1.87
  3. D2–23 AugFalkirk (A)xG 1.19–2.02
  4. W2–117 MayAberdeen (H)xG 1.93–1.70
  5. L1–314 MayRangers (A)xG 0.78–1.69
  6. L0–210 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 1.47–2.18

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianDundee United
Position4th7th
Played33
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠01–⁠1–⁠1
Points5 (1.67 per game)4 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game2.321.12
Goals5–⁠46–⁠5
xG per game1.87–⁠0.640.94–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 2.09–⁠0.900.00, 0.71–⁠1.87
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 1.42–⁠0.132.00, 1.05–⁠1.07
ManagerDavid Gray (43)Jim Goodwin (53)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackHibernian1.52, 3rdDundee United1.19, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.17, 3rdDundee United1.47, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.01 Aug31 AugHibernian attack: 1.52Dundee United attack: 1.191.521.19Dundee UnitedHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.01 Aug31 AugHibernian defence: 1.17Dundee United defence: 1.471.471.17

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−6%−19%−23%−7%
Counter-attacks+82%−41%+59%−49%
Set pieces+102%−32%−11%+25%
Penalties−25%−53%−44%+139%
Headers+51%−26%−3%+35%
Left side+65%−22%−6%−31%
Centre+38%−21%−7%+19%
Right side+8%−39%−31%−9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft side+65%−9%Centre+38%+19%Right side+8%−31%Open play−6%−7%Counter-attacks+82%−49%Set pieces+102%+25%Headers+51%+35%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side−6%−39%Centre−7%−21%Right side−31%−22%Open play−23%−19%Counter-attacks+59%−41%Set pieces−11%−32%Headers−3%−26%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianDundee United

1.87xG0.94
0.64xG against1.34
61%Possession41%
14.3Shots11.3
7.3Shots against11.7
5.0Shots on target5.0
2.7Big chances1.7
29.7Touches in the opposition box17.3
536Passes325
86%Pass accuracy77%
8.3Corners2.7
67%Field tilt38%
45.7Final-third entries27.0
13.3Box entries9.7
17.4Passes per defensive action18.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level571.220.52
Ahead302.100.81
Behind312.001.20

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level541.041.51
Ahead350.681.11
Behind13.900.00

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.030–0
16–300.410.073–0
31–450.200.191–2
46–600.150.170–1
61–750.660.101–1
76–900.190.090–0

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.101–0
16–300.170.491–1
31–450.150.262–0
46–600.050.140–2
61–750.180.201–1
76–900.190.151–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSmith 3Hanley 2O'Hora 2Bushiri 3Iredale 2C. Cadden 2Mulligan 1Chaiwa 1Mulligan 1McGrath 1Levitt 3Obita 2N. Cadden 1Boyle 2Youan 1Bowie 2Klidje 1Hoilett 33-4-3 in 2 of 3 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 3Iovu 3Camara 1Esselink 3Keresztes 2Sevelj 1Stephenson 1Thomson 1Sevelj 2Sibbald 2Camara 1Pappoe 1Keresztes 1Dolcek 1Ferry 1Camara 1Dolcek 1Watters 1Sapsford 2Stirton 1Dolcek 1Sapsford 1Fatah 13-4-3 in 1 of 3 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 May 2025Hibernian3–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.73–1.35
26 February 2025Dundee United1–3HibernianxG 0.71–1.53
3 November 2024Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.09–1.31
19 October 2024Dundee United3–2HibernianxG 1.79–0.71
9 April 2023Dundee United2–1HibernianxG 1.44–1.47
14 January 2023Hibernian2–2Dundee UnitedxG 0.80–0.87

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 5, Dundee United won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 20–17 and xG 1.29–0.96 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Bowie7844810.460.09
N. Cadden211,808570.220.29
Hoilett221,718450.270.23
Youan12963310.380.11

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferry363,236040.040.23
Thomson6597100.200.05
Stephenson292,490330.130.07
Fotheringham7679000.100.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.