Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee United 1–1 Hibernian

Saturday 20 December 2025, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 18 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 10,124

Dundee United Stephenson 20'

Hibernian Bowie 38'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Goals11
xG0.821.26
Expected Points1.001.68

Dundee United 23%Draw 32%Hibernian 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 1–1, 15%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+10%4%1%10%9%3%4%6%4%1%1%12%15%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTNaamo on for Strain, 5'Cleall-Harding on for Keresztes, 46'Trapanovski on for Watters and Möller on for Fatah, 63'Esselink on for Graham, 69'Campbell on for Barlaser and Klidje on for McGrath, 63'Levitt on for Boyle, 64'Youan on for Bowie and Hoilett on for Cadden, 83'Stephenson 20'Bowie 38'Hibernian 1.26Dundee United 0.8200.511.50153045607590HTNaamo on for Strain, 5'Cleall-Harding on for Keresztes, 46'Trapanovski on for Watters and Möller on for Fatah, 63'Esselink on for Graham, 69'Campbell on for Barlaser and Klidje on for McGrath, 63'Levitt on for Boyle, 64'Youan on for Bowie and Hoilett on for Cadden, 83'Stephenson 20'Bowie 38'1.260.82Dundee UnitedHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.82 −0.43xG1.26 −0.49
0.67 −0.79xG on target1.07 −0.45
12 −1Shots23 +11
2 −2.7Shots on target5 −0.1
0 −1.9Big chances3 +0.4
33 +10Touches in the opposition box30 +6
41% −1Possession59% +11
278 −43Passes427 +25
66% −4Pass accuracy77% −4
37% 0Field tilt63% +17
36 +4Final-third entries52 +17
16 +4Box entries14 +4
15.9 +2Passes per defensive action22.4 +5
5 +0.7Corners7 +1.6
14 −4Tackles11 −1
3 −8.1Interceptions8 +0.4
35 0Clearances46 +19
3 −0.4Saves1 −2.3
10 −4Fouls7 −4
1 −1.1Offsides0 −2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Watters 29', 0.15 xGSapsford 54', 0.13 xGFatah 45+1', 0.11 xGFatah 59', 0.06 xGTrapanovski 72', 0.06 xGSevelj 86', 0.06 xGFatah 58', 0.03 xGTrapanovski 73', 0.03 xGSevelj 79', 0.03 xGFatah 57', 0.02 xGFerry 90', 0.02 xGStephenson 20', 0.11 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.62 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.62 xG, 1 goal15%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Mitchell 40', 0.19 xGBowie 6', 0.18 xGBoyle 32', 0.15 xGKlidje 74', 0.14 xGBowie 31', 0.07 xGLevitt 83', 0.06 xGBowie 51', 0.05 xGCampbell 65', 0.05 xGBowie 74', 0.04 xGCadden 27', 0.03 xGMegwa 52', 0.03 xGHoilett 90+2', 0.03 xGBowie 3', 0.02 xGCadden 16', 0.02 xGBarlaser 31', 0.02 xGBoyle 39', 0.02 xGBoyle 52', 0.02 xGBarlaser 52', 0.02 xGCampbell 64', 0.02 xGHanley 73', 0.02 xGCampbell 82', 0.02 xGMcGrath 45+4', 0.01 xGBoyle 38', 0.06 xG, goal15%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.19 xG, 0 goals45%0.57 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals23%0.29 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal14%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.49 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.68 15 shots, 0 goals
0.10 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.15 1 shot, 0 goals
0.23 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.43 7 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
78 min (81%) · Dundee United 0.66, Hibernian 0.93 xG
Dundee United ahead
18 min (19%) · Dundee United 0.15, Hibernian 0.32 xG

Line-ups

255236214211191736RichardsSeveljKeresztesGrahamStrainSibbaldStephensonFerrySapsfordFatahWattersGoalYellow card46'69'5'63'63'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin1244152720221917109SallingerMitchellHanleyIredaleMegwaMulliganBarlaserCaddenMcGrathBoyleBowieYellow cardGoal63'83'63'64'83'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray

Dundee United substitutes

  • 5' Naamo for Strain
  • 46' Cleall-Harding for Keresztes · yellow card 72'
  • 63' Trapanovski for Watters
  • 63' Möller for Fatah
  • 69' Esselink for Graham

Hibernian substitutes

  • 63' Campbell for Barlaser
  • 63' Klidje for McGrath · yellow card 89'
  • 64' Levitt for Boyle
  • 83' Hoilett for Cadden
  • 83' Youan for Bowie

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RichardsGK900.000.0100.0761
SeveljCB900.090.0000.0316
KeresztesCB460.000.0000.0117
GrahamCB690.000.0000.0119
StrainRWB50.000.0000.0000
SibbaldCM900.000.0710.1234
Stephenson CM9010.110.0100.0223
FerryLWB900.020.2440.32158
SapsfordAM900.130.0410.1854
FatahAM630.220.0100.1042
WattersST6310.150.1410.0200
NaamoDF850.000.0000.0149
Cleall-Harding DF440.000.0000.0115
TrapanovskiFW270.100.0100.0551
MöllerFW270.000.0100.0000
EsselinkDF210.000.0010.0113

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0791
MitchellCB9010.190.0010.01111
HanleyCB900.020.0000.03318
Iredale CB900.000.0310.0939
MegwaRWB900.030.0120.0138
MulliganCM900.000.0210.0226
BarlaserCM630.040.0210.11101
CaddenLWB830.040.5750.4183
McGrathAM630.010.1330.1682
BoyleST640.240.0200.1051
BowieST8310.360.032−0.0514
CampbellMF270.090.221−0.0222
Klidje FW270.140.010−0.0200
LevittMF260.060.0100.0202
HoilettMF70.030.0200.0010
YouanFW70.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Sallinger and Mitchell: 5 passesSallinger and McGrath: 5 passesSallinger and Bowie: 5 passesMegwa and Barlaser: 5 passesIredale and Barlaser: 5 passesSallinger and Iredale: 7 passesSallinger and Hanley: 8 passesMegwa and Boyle: 8 passesIredale and McGrath: 8 passesCadden and Bowie: 8 passesBarlaser and Mulligan: 8 passesMcGrath and Bowie: 9 passesMegwa and Mitchell: 10 passesCadden and Barlaser: 10 passesHanley and Barlaser: 11 passesMcGrath and Barlaser: 11 passesMitchell and Hanley: 13 passesMitchell and Barlaser: 13 passesIredale and Hanley: 14 passesIredale and Cadden: 15 passesCadden and McGrath: 18 passesSallinger: 18 completed passesMegwa: 17 completed passesIredale: 33 completed passesMitchell: 26 completed passesHanley: 30 completed passesCadden: 26 completed passesMcGrath: 30 completed passesBarlaser: 38 completed passesMulligan: 15 completed passesBoyle: 8 completed passesBowie: 14 completed passes1271524419172220109SallingerMegwaIredaleMitchellHanleyCaddenMcGrathBarlaserMulliganBoyleBowieStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
FerryFatah7
SibbaldFerry7
FerrySevelj7
SeveljRichards6
SeveljFerry6

Hibernian

FromToPasses
McGrathCadden13
IredaleHanley10
MitchellMegwa10
HanleyIredale8
BarlaserMitchell8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

2−3.45−3.120+3.010+2.59+2.57−1.47−0.57−1.29+3.83−1.44−0.78+1.64−2.51−2.63−1.20−3.46+1.65+1.44+1.71−0.81+0.13+0.82+0.11+0.40−0.32+1.40−0.42+0.81−4.53−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Hibernian

4+1.111+5.726+13.05−2.42−1.68+2.95−1.314+7.74−2.512+6.32−2.75+1.22−1.14+0.46+1.81−3.10−3.65+2.61−1.35+1.23+0.81−0.710.010.01−1.40−0.70−0.70−0.50−0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.050.020.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.020.030.040.040.07−0.010.050.080.070.07−0.010.110.130.10LessMore

Hibernian

0.040.010.020.010.040.030.010.020.010.050.010.010.030.040.100.090.030.090.06−0.01−0.05−0.110.190.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee United1.14 → 1.12Hibernian1.50 → 1.49Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.54 → 1.53Hibernian1.15 → 1.14

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six16%14%−2
11th5%5%0
Bottom2%2%0
Hibernian
Top six93%92%−1
Livingston
11th28%28%0
Bottom42%42%0

From the forecast before the match (20 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Expected goals1.151.55
Win28%46%
Expected Points1.091.65
Clean sheet21%32%

Dundee United 28%Draw 26%Hibernian 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+7%8%4%2%7%5%2%4%7%5%3%1%2%3%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawHibernian win
Dundee United
Top six16%26%14%11%
11th5%3%5%7%
Bottom2%0%2%2%
Hibernian
Top six93%88%92%97%
Livingston
11th28%30%28%26%
Bottom42%42%42%43%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W2–117 DecCeltic (H)xG 1.45–3.20
  2. D0–013 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.49–0.68
  3. L0–26 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.01–1.24
  4. D2–23 DecRangers (H)xG 1.38–4.79
  5. D1–129 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 1.86–2.11
  6. L0–322 NovFalkirk (H)xG 0.74–1.78

Hibernian

  1. L0–115 DecRangers (A)xG 0.55–1.84
  2. W3–06 DecFalkirk (H)xG 2.02–0.49
  3. L1–230 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.65–1.33
  4. L0–225 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.77–2.14
  5. W2–022 NovDundee FC (H)xG 2.26–0.56
  6. W3–08 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.62–0.78

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Position8th5th
Played1717
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠8–⁠56–⁠6–⁠5
Points20 (1.18 per game)24 (1.41 per game)
Expected Points per game1.051.79
Goals23–⁠2627–⁠19
xG per game1.25–⁠1.791.75–⁠1.16
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.41–⁠2.081.50, 2.25–⁠0.87
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.07–⁠1.461.33, 1.32–⁠1.42
ManagerJim Goodwin (67)David Gray (57)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee United1.14, 8thHibernian1.50, 4thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.54, 9thHibernian1.15, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United attack: 1.14Hibernian attack: 1.501.501.14HibernianDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United defence: 1.54Hibernian defence: 1.151.541.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%+48%+1%average
Counter-attacks+32%−13%+102%+7%
Set pieces+17%+14%+25%−48%
Penaltiesaverage+33%+100%−33%
Headers−13%+27%+12%−21%
Left side+14%+15%+37%+16%
Centre−25%+41%+22%−22%
Right side−2%+25%−1%−22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side+14%−22%Centre−25%−22%Right side−2%+16%Open play−31%averageCounter-attacks+32%+7%Set pieces+17%−48%Headers−13%−21%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft side+37%+25%Centre+22%+41%Right side−1%+15%Open play+1%+48%Counter-attacks+102%−13%Set pieces+25%+14%Headers+12%+27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedHibernian

1.25xG1.75
1.79xG against1.16
42%Possession48%
12.6Shots12.4
16.4Shots against11.0
4.7Shots on target5.1
1.9Big chances2.6
23.0Touches in the opposition box23.8
321Passes402
70%Pass accuracy80%
4.3Corners5.4
38%Field tilt46%
31.5Final-third entries34.6
11.6Box entries10.5
13.4Passes per defensive action17.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.271.70
Ahead170.902.75
Behind261.411.32

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.451.23
Ahead301.991.14
Behind202.011.07

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.203–2
16–300.100.281–9
31–450.200.406–3
46–600.240.244–4
61–750.280.296–3
76–900.250.383–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.102–2
16–300.270.237–4
31–450.280.285–6
46–600.440.136–2
61–750.220.101–2
76–900.310.336–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 12Richards 5Iovu 14Stephenson 1Camara 1Esselink 15Graham 4Keresztes 15Stephenson 10Strain 4Sevelj 1Sevelj 13Sibbald 10Camara 8Stephenson 2Ferry 14Keresztes 1Dolcek 1Dolcek 7Fatah 3Stephenson 2Sapsford 10Möller 4Watters 2Fatah 8Sapsford 5Dolcek 23-4-3 in 9 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-5-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 13Smith 4Bushiri 12O'Hora 11Hanley 12Iredale 14Obita 2Cadden 13Mulligan 4Mulligan 12Barlaser 8McGrath 5Chaiwa 5N. Cadden 10Obita 6McGrath 1McGrath 6Barlaser 4Boyle 4Boyle 8Klidje 5Youan 1Bowie 15Hoilett 3McGrath 23-4-1-2 in 7 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-1-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 September 2025Hibernian3–3Dundee UnitedxG 3.05–1.87
3 May 2025Hibernian3–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.73–1.35
26 February 2025Dundee United1–3HibernianxG 0.71–1.53
3 November 2024Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.09–1.31
19 October 2024Dundee United3–2HibernianxG 1.79–0.71
9 April 2023Dundee United2–1HibernianxG 1.44–1.47

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 4, Hibernian won 5, and 5 were drawn. Goals 20–23 and xG 1.03–1.41 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sapsford171,381510.300.07
Dolcek10822510.230.14
Möller5600020.210.09
Fatah11976230.180.09

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Klidje5542210.690.05
Boyle121,011400.540.10
Bowie151,254630.330.16
McGrath141,151520.290.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.