Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 3–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 25 January 2025, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 24 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 18,677

Hearts Kabangu 7', McCart 58', Grant 61'

Kilmarnock Wales 50', Murray 67'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsKilmarnock
Goals32
xG2.511.05
Expected Points2.340.48

Hearts 72%Draw 17%Kilmarnock 10%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 3–2, 6%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%2%6%7%4%1%7%2%6%2%5%6%3%2%2%1%10%12%9%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTNeilson on for Halkett, 11'Shankland on for Wilson, Drammeh on for Grant, and Dhanda on for Spittal, 69'Boateng on for Kabangu, 90+2'Armstrong on for Ramsay, 46'Watson on for Magennis and Donnelly on for Polworth, 68'Anderson on for Deas, 87'Kabangu 7'McCart 58'Grant 61'Wales 50'Murray 67'Hearts 2.51Kilmarnock 1.0501230153045607590HTNeilson on for Halkett, 11'Shankland on for Wilson, Drammeh on for Grant, and Dhanda on for Spittal, 69'Boateng on for Kabangu, 90+2'Armstrong on for Ramsay, 46'Watson on for Magennis and Donnelly on for Polworth, 68'Anderson on for Deas, 87'Kabangu 7'McCart 58'Grant 61'Wales 50'Murray 67'2.511.05HeartsKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsKilmarnock

2.51 +1.34xG1.05 −0.36
2.34 +1.31xG on target1.83 +0.72
10 −3Shots15 +2
4 +0.2Shots on target8 +4.3
4 +2.0Big chances2 0.0
19 −6Touches in the opposition box19 −3
49% −6Possession51% +6
347 −108Passes357 +38
67% −10Pass accuracy63% −5
50% −9Field tilt50% +6
34 −10Final-third entries33 0
11 −1Box entries9 −1
13.3 0Passes per defensive action11.7 −4
3 −3.4Corners7 +1.1
16 −3Tackles12 −2
5 −4.0Interceptions11 +2.3
47 +22Clearances35 0
6 +3.6Saves1 −1.9
9 −2Fouls17 +7
6 +4.7Offsides2 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Drammeh 76', 0.37 xGWilson 28', 0.29 xGDrammeh 88', 0.17 xGGrant 7', 0.14 xGDrammeh 84', 0.09 xGSpittal 55', 0.05 xGDevlin 90+4', 0.05 xGKabangu 7', 0.60 xG, goalMcCart 58', 0.47 xG, goalGrant 61', 0.26 xG, goal53%1.33 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.33 xG, 3 goals43%1.07 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.07 xG, 0 goals2%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Deas 86', 0.22 xGWales 17', 0.08 xGWatkins 6', 0.07 xGWatkins 49', 0.07 xGWatkins 80', 0.07 xGWatson 86', 0.05 xGArmstrong 80', 0.04 xGWales 89', 0.04 xGMayo 11', 0.03 xGMurray 13', 0.02 xGWatkins 37', 0.02 xGWales 45+2', 0.02 xGWatkins 53', 0.02 xGMurray 67', 0.18 xG, goalWales 50', 0.13 xG, goal20%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal42%0.44 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal11%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals23%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsKilmarnock

1.39 5 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.58 8 shots, 2 goals
0.59 3 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.53 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.47 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (15%) · Hearts 1.27, Kilmarnock 0.09 xG
Hearts ahead
84 min (85%) · Hearts 1.24, Kilmarnock 0.96 xG

Line-ups

135430291461971621GordonForresterHalkettMcCartPenriceDevlinBaningimeKabanguGrantSpittalWilsonGoalGoalGoalYellow card11'90+2'69'69'69'Hearts 4-2-3-1Neil Critchley15462116313152423O'HaraMayoWrightDeasRamsayMagennisPolworthNdabaMurrayWalesWatkinsYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card87'46'68'68'Kilmarnock 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes

Hearts substitutes

  • 11' Neilson for Halkett
  • 69' Dhanda for Spittal
  • 69' Shankland for Wilson
  • 69' Drammeh for Grant
  • 90+2' Boateng for Kabangu · yellow card 90+2'

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Armstrong for Ramsay · yellow card 54', 1 assist
  • 68' Donnelly for Polworth
  • 68' Watson for Magennis · yellow card 81'
  • 87' Anderson for Deas

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0001
ForresterRB900.000.0100.0024
HalkettCB110.000.0000.0001
McCartCB9010.470.0000.03323
PenriceLB9010.000.2920.11610
DevlinDM900.050.010−0.0219
BaningimeDM900.000.0100.0354
KabanguRW9010.600.2920.1231
Grant AM6910.410.0400.0463
SpittalLW690.050.0300.0982
WilsonST6910.290.4620.2130
NeilsonDF790.000.0000.0329
DhandaMF210.000.0000.0011
ShanklandFW210.000.0220.0531
DrammehFW210.630.0000.0511
Boateng MF00.000.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0100.0220
MayoCB900.030.0100.0898
WrightCB900.000.0000.03313
Deas CB870.220.0000.04413
RamsayRWB460.000.1420.0833
Magennis CM680.000.010−0.0213
PolworthCM680.000.0310.0453
NdabaLWB900.000.1410.1068
MurrayAM9010.200.3230.0370
WalesAM9010.270.010−0.0312
Watkins ST9010.250.1010.1932
Armstrong FW4410.040.3730.3352
DonnellyDF220.000.010−0.0111
Watson MF220.050.0000.0002
AndersonFW30.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Wright and Ramsay: 3 passesMayo and Watkins: 3 passesDeas and Ndaba: 3 passesNdaba and Wales: 3 passesWright and Deas: 4 passesDeas and Magennis: 4 passesRamsay and Magennis: 4 passesRamsay and Wales: 4 passesMagennis and Wales: 4 passesWright and Mayo: 5 passesPolworth and Wales: 6 passesMayo and Ramsay: 7 passesRamsay and Polworth: 7 passesMurray and Polworth: 7 passesPolworth and Magennis: 7 passesMayo and Magennis: 8 passesDeas and Polworth: 9 passesNdaba and Polworth: 10 passesNdaba and Murray: 12 passesMayo and Polworth: 16 passesO'Hara: 2 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesMayo: 24 completed passesDeas: 14 completed passesRamsay: 16 completed passesNdaba: 18 completed passesMurray: 11 completed passesPolworth: 33 completed passesMagennis: 18 completed passesWales: 8 completed passesWatkins: 3 completed passes14562131531162423O'HaraWrightMayoDeasRamsayNdabaMurrayPolworthMagennisWalesWatkinsStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
PenriceSpittal13
NeilsonMcCart9
DevlinPenrice8
KabanguSpittal8
McCartGordon6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoPolworth12
NdabaPolworth9
NdabaMurray9
MurrayNdaba8
PolworthMayo8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

7+3.17+1.912−1.113+6.510+5.24−3.16−0.24−1.514+6.913+5.75−0.65+0.54+0.811+5.611+4.03−2.02−1.14+1.43−0.56+1.61−1.50−1.70−1.22+0.23+0.40−0.70−0.41+0.30−0.310.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Kilmarnock

7+2.55−2.93−4.55−0.58+2.313+5.95−1.79+2.84−2.69+3.86+2.33−0.35+0.27+2.14+0.66+2.62−0.25+1.73−1.23+1.11−0.61+0.30−1.13+0.40−0.70−0.50−0.81+0.60−0.711−5.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.030.010.030.020.020.030.020.130.010.030.06−0.020.090.020.020.21LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.020.040.050.020.020.040.06−0.01−0.010.010.020.140.10−0.030.01−0.04−0.05−0.010.080.38LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHearts1.25 → 1.29Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.31 → 1.29Kilmarnock1.32 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six15%23%+8
11th13%7%−6
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six19%10%−9
11th9%13%+4
Bottom1%2%+1
Motherwell
Top six57%57%0
11th4%5%+1

From the forecast before the match (25 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals1.461.10
Win45%28%
Expected Points1.621.11
Clean sheet33%23%

Hearts 45%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawKilmarnock win
Hearts
Top six15%23%12%6%
11th13%7%14%20%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Kilmarnock
Top six19%10%18%34%
11th9%13%8%4%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
Motherwell
Top six57%57%60%55%
11th4%5%4%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D0–012 JanAberdeen (A)xG 1.54–1.10
  2. W1–05 JanDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.66
  3. W1–02 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.97–1.25
  4. D2–229 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.06–1.40
  5. L1–226 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.70–1.93
  6. W2–122 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.75–1.28

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–08 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.72–0.39
  2. L0–15 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.56–1.15
  3. W2–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.98–0.26
  4. L0–129 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.25–2.32
  5. W4–026 DecAberdeen (H)xG 4.02–0.50
  6. D1–120 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.03–0.76

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position11th9th
Played2323
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠116–⁠7–⁠10
Points24 (1.04 per game)25 (1.09 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.34
Goals25–⁠3125–⁠37
xG per game1.17–⁠1.451.41–⁠1.48
Home: points, xG per game1.36, 1.26–⁠1.301.45, 1.96–⁠1.13
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 1.08–⁠1.590.75, 0.91–⁠1.79
ManagerNeil Critchley (14)Derek McInnes (99)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHearts1.25, 4thKilmarnock1.24, 5thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.31, 4thKilmarnock1.32, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.25Kilmarnock attack: 1.241.251.24KilmarnockHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.31Kilmarnock defence: 1.321.321.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−8%−15%+5%
Counter-attacks−40%−25%−34%−26%
Set pieces+1%+10%+27%+17%
Penalties−75%+50%+25%−25%
Headers−5%+19%−9%−6%
Left side+4%+4%+9%−9%
Centre−23%−6%−12%+15%
Right side−4%−10%−2%average

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+4%averageCentre−23%+15%Right side−4%−9%Open play−15%+5%Counter-attacks−40%−26%Set pieces+1%+17%Headers−5%−6%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side+9%−10%Centre−12%−6%Right side−2%+4%Open play−15%−8%Counter-attacks−34%−25%Set pieces+27%+10%Headers−9%+19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

1.17xG1.41
1.45xG against1.48
55%Possession45%
13.0Shots12.9
11.0Shots against13.3
3.8Shots on target3.7
2.0Big chances2.0
25.4Touches in the opposition box21.8
455Passes319
78%Pass accuracy68%
6.4Corners5.9
59%Field tilt44%
43.8Final-third entries32.7
12.1Box entries10.4
12.8Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.161.59
Ahead211.181.21
Behind281.181.41

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.431.46
Ahead151.681.28
Behind301.251.60

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.203–4
16–300.130.224–3
31–450.130.264–5
46–600.160.273–6
61–750.160.175–4
76–900.380.346–9

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.242–2
16–300.200.213–6
31–450.170.242–7
46–600.170.254–6
61–750.280.235–6
76–900.360.309–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 21Clark 2Oyegoke 11Forrester 6Taylor 4Kent 12Halkett 9Oyegoke 2Rowles 20Kingsley 2McCart 1Penrice 17Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 15Baningime 8Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 6Spittal 1Drammeh 8Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 7Grant 4Boyce 3Spittal 15Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Wilson 7Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 13 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (13), 4-4-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 18O'Hara 5Lyons 6Mayo 6Armstrong 4Mayo 12Wright 10Deas 11Findlay 9Ndaba 4Ndaba 10Lyons 4Deas 3Armstrong 12Wright 3Murray 2Watson 12Murray 2Watkins 1Polworth 9Lyons 7Donnelly 7Kennedy 10Murray 5Ndaba 3Vassell 19Cameron 2Watkins 13Anderson 5Wales 34-4-2 in 11 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 December 2024Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.57–1.15
30 October 2024Hearts1–2KilmarnockxG 1.11–1.73
27 April 2024Kilmarnock0–0HeartsxG 0.89–1.95
30 March 2024Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 1.61–1.55
2 December 2023Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.16–0.73
13 August 2023Hearts0–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.73

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 2, Kilmarnock won 3, and 4 were drawn. Goals 9–9 and xG 1.24–1.46 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland181,581330.320.15
Vargas121,002210.270.12
Wilson7670400.220.13
Drammeh9732200.300.02

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8801800.810.07
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Wales5503110.270.22
Watkins141,223300.390.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.