St. Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock

Result and Expected Points

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Line-ups

Players

St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page.

Threat

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

From the forecast before the match (2 August 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Forecast

From the forecast as it stood on 2 August 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

1. L0–218 MayDundee FC (H)xG 0.53–1.48
2. L1–214 MayHearts (A)xG 0.94–0.79
3. W2–110 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.90–0.65
4. L0–23 MayKilmarnock (H)xG 1.43–1.39
5. L2–326 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.84–2.03
6. L0–112 AprDundee United (A)xG 0.95–1.17

Kilmarnock

1. W4–117 MayLivingston (A)xG 2.77–1.33
2. W3–112 MayDundee FC (H)xG 3.48–0.43
3. W3–09 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.49–1.21
4. W3–02 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.40–2.11
5. L0–125 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.71–0.50
6. D2–211 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–1.32

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Head to head

14 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 8, Kilmarnock won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 18–16 and xG 1.22–1.29 per game.