Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 1–0 Hearts

Saturday 14 March 2026, 20:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 30 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 8,232

Kilmarnock Schjønning-Larsen 17'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals10
xG1.271.06
Expected Points1.531.16

Kilmarnock 41%Draw 31%Hearts 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%3%8%10%6%2%3%3%2%13%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTLowery on for Watson, 65'Thompson on for Schjønning-Larsen and McKenzie on for Kiltie, 70'Watkins on for Hugill and Thomson on for Curtis, 83'Mayo on for Tshibola, 89'McEntee on for Magnússon, 35'Chesnokov on for Kaboré, 46'Altena on for Steinwender, 56'Kerjota on for Milne, 81'Kent on for Kyziridis, 87'Kabangu on for Spittal, 88'Schjønning-Larsen 17'Kilmarnock 1.27Hearts 1.0600.511.50153045607590HTLowery on for Watson, 65'Thompson on for Schjønning-Larsen and McKenzie on for Kiltie, 70'Watkins on for Hugill and Thomson on for Curtis, 83'Mayo on for Tshibola, 89'McEntee on for Magnússon, 35'Chesnokov on for Kaboré, 46'Altena on for Steinwender, 56'Kerjota on for Milne, 81'Kent on for Kyziridis, 87'Kabangu on for Spittal, 88'Schjønning-Larsen 17'1.271.06KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

1.27 +0.07xG1.06 −0.58
1.74 +0.57xG on target0.46 −1.43
11 0Shots15 +1
4 +0.2Shots on target3 −2.1
1 −0.8Big chances0 −2.6
20 0Touches in the opposition box31 +4
39% −2Possession61% +8
323 −8Passes498 +85
67% −5Pass accuracy76% +1
49% +10Field tilt51% −8
30 −2Final-third entries45 +4
11 +1.4Box entries12 −0.6
15.7 0Passes per defensive action7.6 −4
2 −2.3Corners9 +3.6
20 +5Tackles14 −3
6 −2.4Interceptions12 +3.2
44 +10Clearances32 0
3 −0.8Saves3 +0.8
13 0Fouls14 +3
2 +0.2Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Hugill 20', 0.26 xGWatson 11', 0.16 xGHugill 37', 0.10 xGHugill 53', 0.09 xGKiltie 49', 0.05 xGCurtis 5', 0.04 xGCurtis 83', 0.04 xGCurtis 53', 0.03 xGCurtis 43', 0.02 xGCurtis 45+2', 0.02 xGSchjønning-Larsen 17', 0.47 xG, goal37%0.47 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.47 xG, 1 goal48%0.61 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.61 xG, 0 goals5%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals10%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Braga 61', 0.15 xGBraga 22', 0.14 xGBraga 45', 0.14 xGMagnússon 23', 0.11 xGKabangu 89', 0.09 xGBraga 9', 0.08 xGMilne 9', 0.07 xGBraga 81', 0.06 xGBraga 1', 0.04 xGBraga 41', 0.04 xGSpittal 52', 0.04 xGBraga 9', 0.03 xGKaboré 28', 0.03 xGKerjota 90+2', 0.03 xGHalkett 8', 0.02 xG21%0.22 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals38%0.40 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals23%0.24 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals16%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

1.13 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.38 6 shots, 0 goals
0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.14 1 shot, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.54 8 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
17 min (18%) · Kilmarnock 0.67, Hearts 0.24 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
80 min (82%) · Kilmarnock 0.59, Hearts 0.82 xG

Line-ups

13214621123631115244RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenWatsonTshibolaPolworthKiltieCurtisHugillYellow cardGoalYellow card70'65'89'70'83'83'Kilmarnock 4-3-1-2Neil McCann25154518498922161011SchwolowSteinwenderHalkettMcCartMilneLeonardKyziridisMagnússonSpittalBragaKaboréYellow card56'81'87'35'88'46'Hearts 4-1-3-2Derek McInnes

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' Lowery for Watson
  • 70' Thompson for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 70' McKenzie for Kiltie
  • 83' Thomson for Curtis
  • 83' Watkins for Hugill
  • 89' Mayo for Tshibola

Hearts substitutes

  • 35' McEntee for Magnússon
  • 46' Chesnokov for Kaboré · yellow card 90+5'
  • 56' Altena for Steinwender
  • 81' Kerjota for Milne
  • 87' Kent for Kyziridis
  • 88' Kabangu for Spittal

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0334
BrandonRB900.000.0100.03310
StangerCB900.000.0000.02311
Deas CB900.000.0200.07512
Schjønning-LarsenLB7010.470.0210.0543
WatsonCM650.160.0400.0733
TshibolaCM890.000.0220.0418
Polworth CM900.000.0810.1043
KiltieAM700.050.1410.0414
CurtisST830.140.1110.1474
HugillST830.450.020−0.0323
LoweryMF250.000.0500.0600
ThompsonDF200.000.0000.0003
McKenzieMF200.000.0000.0111
ThomsonMF70.000.0000.0002
WatkinsFW70.000.010−0.0702
MayoDF10.000.0000.0002

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0531
SteinwenderRB560.000.0000.0135
Halkett CB900.020.0300.121414
McCartCB900.000.0610.201311
MilneLB810.070.1630.30124
LeonardDM900.000.0300.04312
KyziridisCM870.000.162−0.0721
MagnússonAM350.110.0000.0114
SpittalCM880.040.1730.1041
BragaST900.680.0810.0832
KaboréST460.030.0000.0301
McEnteeDF550.000.0000.0022
Chesnokov FW440.000.0100.0222
AltenaDF340.000.0100.0243
KerjotaFW90.030.1510.1710
KentDF30.000.0400.0000
KabanguFW20.090.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Watson and Tshibola: 4 passesWatson and Curtis: 4 passesWatson and Kiltie: 4 passesTshibola and Curtis: 4 passesPolworth and Kiltie: 4 passesHugill and Kiltie: 4 passesRoos and Deas: 5 passesBrandon and Stanger: 5 passesDeas and Tshibola: 5 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Kiltie: 5 passesWatson and Hugill: 5 passesRoos and Stanger: 6 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 6 passesBrandon and Kiltie: 7 passesDeas and Schjønning-Larsen: 8 passesStanger and Tshibola: 9 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Polworth: 10 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Tshibola: 11 passesTshibola and Polworth: 11 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Curtis: 12 passesBrandon and Tshibola: 13 passesPolworth and Curtis: 14 passesRoos: 9 completed passesBrandon: 18 completed passesStanger: 16 completed passesDeas: 13 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 30 completed passesWatson: 9 completed passesTshibola: 37 completed passesPolworth: 27 completed passesCurtis: 12 completed passesHugill: 9 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passes13214621123631524411RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenWatsonTshibolaPolworthCurtisHugillKiltieStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Steinwender and Kaboré: 3 passesMcCart and Halkett: 3 passesHalkett and Kyziridis: 3 passesSpittal and Braga: 3 passesKyziridis and Braga: 3 passesSchwolow and Halkett: 4 passesMilne and Kaboré: 4 passesSpittal and Kaboré: 4 passesHalkett and Leonard: 5 passesHalkett and Magnússon: 5 passesMilne and Leonard: 5 passesMcCart and Leonard: 6 passesSteinwender and Halkett: 7 passesMilne and Braga: 7 passesMcCart and Milne: 8 passesMilne and Spittal: 9 passesSchwolow and McCart: 12 passesSchwolow: 12 completed passesSteinwender: 8 completed passesMcCart: 17 completed passesHalkett: 18 completed passesMilne: 20 completed passesLeonard: 11 completed passesMagnússon: 4 completed passesSpittal: 9 completed passesKyziridis: 4 completed passesKaboré: 8 completed passesBraga: 7 completed passes25155418492216891110SchwolowSteinwenderMcCartHalkettMilneLeonardMagnússonSpittalKyziridisKaboréBragaStarters until 35' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthCurtis10
TshibolaBrandon9
Schjønning-LarsenCurtis9
Schjønning-LarsenTshibola7
TshibolaPolworth6

Hearts

FromToPasses
SchwolowMcCart19
MilneSpittal17
McCartMilne17
LeonardMcCart14
SteinwenderHalkett13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

50.011+2.120+2.68+0.93−1.47−0.210+3.03−3.913+5.27+1.06+1.08+3.18+4.74−1.23−1.91−2.511+7.42−0.72−1.22−1.82−0.51−1.01−0.52+0.24+2.12+1.10−0.90−0.90−0.31+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Hearts

5+0.77+0.515+2.54−2.311+7.26−1.09+1.18+1.27−1.413+6.19+3.17+1.21−3.83−3.26+0.83−2.15+0.60−2.78+4.37+2.53+0.53+0.80−1.42+0.72−0.82+0.90−0.41+0.40−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.020.010.040.010.020.030.010.030.030.02−0.02−0.050.050.060.080.070.06LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.020.030.040.020.040.030.050.010.070.020.020.020.050.050.160.02−0.010.02−0.01−0.080.030.210.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.08 → 1.09Hearts1.49 → 1.46Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.71 → 1.66Hearts1.08 → 1.09

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th66%58%−8
Bottom8%3%−5
Hearts
Title41%27%−14
St. Mirren
11th20%30%+10
Celtic
Title39%48%+9

From the forecast before the match (14 March 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.041.67
Win23%52%
Expected Points0.941.80
Clean sheet19%35%

Kilmarnock 23%Draw 25%Hearts 52%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%6%5%2%4%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%11%9%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 March 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHearts win
Kilmarnock
11th66%58%66%71%
Bottom8%3%8%11%
Hearts
Title41%27%34%50%
St. Mirren
11th20%30%21%15%
Celtic
Title39%48%44%33%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–528 FebFalkirk (A)xG 0.39–3.14
  2. D1–121 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.50–2.05
  3. L2–315 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.86–2.98
  4. W4–311 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.76–1.96
  5. L1–54 FebRangers (A)xG 1.39–3.14
  6. W3–031 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.01

Hearts

  1. W1–028 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.33–0.39
  2. W1–021 FebFalkirk (H)xG 1.10–0.74
  3. L2–415 FebRangers (A)xG 0.40–2.51
  4. W1–010 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.66–0.38
  5. L0–13 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.23–2.31
  6. W3–031 JanDundee United (A)xG 4.39–0.18

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position11th1st
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠9–⁠1619–⁠6–⁠4
Points21 (0.72 per game)63 (2.17 per game)
Expected Points per game0.941.73
Goals32–⁠6052–⁠24
xG per game1.20–⁠1.991.64–⁠1.02
Home: points, xG per game0.86, 1.42–⁠1.702.47, 1.70–⁠0.92
Away: points, xG per game0.60, 0.98–⁠2.261.86, 1.57–⁠1.12
ManagerNeil McCann (7)Derek McInnes (29)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.08, 11thHearts1.49, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.71, 11thHearts1.08, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 1.08Hearts attack: 1.491.491.08HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.71Hearts defence: 1.081.711.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+34%+12%−19%
Counter-attacks+12%+9%+28%−24%
Set pieces+2%+35%+25%−28%
Penalties−77%+130%−8%−100%
Headers−5%+5%+18%−4%
Left side−50%+36%+13%−18%
Centre+9%+38%+27%−30%
Right side−12%+14%−1%−8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−50%−8%Centre+9%−30%Right side−12%−18%Open play−20%−19%Counter-attacks+12%−24%Set pieces+2%−28%Headers−5%−4%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+13%+14%Centre+27%+38%Right side−1%+36%Open play+12%+34%Counter-attacks+28%+9%Set pieces+25%+35%Headers+18%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.20xG1.64
1.99xG against1.02
41%Possession53%
10.9Shots14.2
15.5Shots against9.9
3.8Shots on target5.1
1.8Big chances2.6
19.8Touches in the opposition box27.2
331Passes413
72%Pass accuracy76%
4.3Corners5.4
39%Field tilt59%
32.1Final-third entries40.6
9.6Box entries12.6
15.6Passes per defensive action11.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.211.76
Ahead151.262.79
Behind361.151.90

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.380.92
Ahead351.891.12
Behind121.811.03

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.262–7
16–300.160.296–9
31–450.290.3110–6
46–600.120.355–14
61–750.190.352–11
76–900.320.447–13

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.134–3
16–300.240.1011–5
31–450.280.188–5
46–600.300.1510–4
61–750.180.187–2
76–900.420.2712–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 7Stryjek 7Brown 13Schjønnin… 7Schjønning-LarsenBrannan 4Schilte… 15Schilte-BrownStanger 11Lyons 2Mayo 19Kiltie 6Watson 3Deas 26Williams 3Thomps… 25ThompsonBrannan 3Curtis 1Watson 22McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 20Thomson 2Tshibola 1Polworth 16Kiltie 9Lowery 8Anderson 18Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 12Kiltie 4Daniels 45-3-2 in 6 of 29 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-4-2 (4), 4-3-1-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 23Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 12Steinwender 10Kent 3Halkett 24Kent 3Steinwender 2Findlay 27McCart 1Shankland 1Milne 15Kingsley 9McCart 2Milne 7Kyziridis 6Braga 4Baningime 12Magnússon 7Leonard 7Devlin 20Spittal 4Kyziridis 19Braga 4Milne 3Shankland 20Kaboré 8Findlay 1Braga 18Magnússon 4Milne 14-4-2 in 12 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (12), 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 December 2025Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 2.19–1.80
18 October 2025Kilmarnock0–3HeartsxG 0.43–2.88
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05
15 December 2024Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.57–1.15
30 October 2024Hearts1–2KilmarnockxG 1.11–1.73

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Hearts won 5, and 5 were drawn. Goals 12–17 and xG 1.34–1.50 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Dackers121,144200.330.10
Anderson201,662420.330.04
Kiltie191,591440.160.21

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré10892420.590.14
Braga262,1951230.460.12
Shankland211,8341120.400.12
Kyziridis252,155460.220.28

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.