Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 0–1 Hearts

Sunday 18 May 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 38 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Dan McFarlane · Attendance 6,601

Hearts Kingsley 89' · Dhanda sent off 38'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals01
xG1.070.68
Expected Points1.651.00

Kilmarnock 43%Draw 35%Hearts 21%

Most likely score 1–0, 18%. Final score 0–1, 12%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+12%3%4%10%8%3%3%2%16%18%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTDhanda (Hearts), red card 38'Anderson on for Findlay, 46'Watkins on for Wales, 65'Polworth on for Lyons, 70'Burke on for Armstrong, 71'Mackay-Steven on for Vassell, 83'Fulton on for Clark, 22'Halkett on for Milne, 59'Kartum on for Nieuwenhof, 68'Kabangu on for Shankland and Wilson on for Forrest, 69'Kingsley 89'Kilmarnock 1.07Hearts 0.6800.511.50153045607590HTDhanda (Hearts), red card 38'Anderson on for Findlay, 46'Watkins on for Wales, 65'Polworth on for Lyons, 70'Burke on for Armstrong, 71'Mackay-Steven on for Vassell, 83'Fulton on for Clark, 22'Halkett on for Milne, 59'Kartum on for Nieuwenhof, 68'Kabangu on for Shankland and Wilson on for Forrest, 69'Kingsley 89'1.070.68KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

1.07 −0.30xG0.68 −0.65
0.03 −1.25xG on target1.20 −0.14
17 +4Shots11 −2
1 −2.9Shots on target5 +0.7
2 −0.1Big chances1 −1.2
23 +1Touches in the opposition box17 −8
48% +4Possession52% −2
379 +73Passes436 −9
82% +17Pass accuracy84% +6
45% +2Field tilt55% −4
48 +16Final-third entries37 −4
15 +5Box entries10 −2
12.5 −2Passes per defensive action18.3 +5
3 −2.5Corners4 −2.3
14 −1Tackles11 −7
7 −1.9Interceptions6 −2.7
22 −15Clearances22 −7
4 +1.4Saves1 −1.4
14 +3Fouls13 +2
1 −0.2Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Murray 72', 0.30 xGWatson 2', 0.13 xGArmstrong 49', 0.12 xGAnderson 46', 0.07 xGDonnelly 53', 0.07 xGBurke 90+2', 0.07 xGMurray 61', 0.06 xGMurray 90+2', 0.05 xGMurray 25', 0.04 xGLyons 44', 0.04 xGMurray 16', 0.03 xGArmstrong 16', 0.03 xGArmstrong 49', 0.02 xGVassell 52', 0.02 xGVassell 59', 0.02 xGArmstrong 33', 0.01 xGMurray 82', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals66%0.70 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.70 xG, 0 goals12%0.13 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals20%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Devlin 67', 0.31 xGForrest 29', 0.04 xGForrest 52', 0.04 xGWilson 78', 0.04 xGDevlin 10', 0.03 xGForrest 52', 0.03 xGWilson 70', 0.03 xGKartum 84', 0.03 xGNieuwenhof 66', 0.02 xGKingsley 9', 0.01 xGKingsley 89', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals63%0.42 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.42 xG, 1 goal10%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals21%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

0.78 13 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.56 10 shots, 0 goals
0.12 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.16 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
89 min (97%) · Kilmarnock 0.95, Hearts 0.68 xG
Hearts ahead
3 min (3%) · Kilmarnock 0.12, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

208517311122215924McCrorieLyonsMayoFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMurrayVassellWalesYellow card70'46'71'83'65'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Chris Burke28352318146817920ClarkForresterKentKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeNieuwenhofForrestShanklandDhandaYellow cardGoalSent off22'59'68'69'69'Hearts 4-3-3Liam Fox

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Anderson for Findlay
  • 65' Watkins for Wales
  • 70' Polworth for Lyons
  • 71' Burke for Armstrong
  • 83' Mackay-Steven for Vassell

Hearts substitutes

  • 22' Fulton for Clark
  • 59' Halkett for Milne
  • 68' Kartum for Nieuwenhof
  • 69' Kabangu for Shankland
  • 69' Wilson for Forrest · 1 assist

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0540
LyonsRB700.040.0010.0443
MayoCB900.000.0100.06414
FindlayCB460.000.0000.0302
NdabaLB900.000.0100.0666
ArmstrongRM710.180.0210.0980
WatsonCM900.130.3120.2295
Donnelly CM900.070.031−0.0545
MurrayLM900.490.1040.23162
VassellST830.040.0620.0431
WalesST650.000.0000.0003
AndersonFW440.070.021−0.0102
WatkinsFW250.000.1710.0702
PolworthMF200.000.0100.0420
BurkeFW190.070.0400.0511
Mackay-StevenFW70.000.0500.0920

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK220.000.0000.0110
Forrester RB900.000.0310.0781
KentCB900.000.0100.0658
KingsleyCB9010.130.0100.0645
MilneLB590.000.0120.0553
DevlinCM900.330.0900.1976
BaningimeCM900.000.0410.0359
NieuwenhofCM680.020.0100.0344
ForrestRW690.110.0400.0741
ShanklandST690.000.362−0.0920
Dhanda LW380.000.011−0.0130
FultonGK680.000.0000.0320
HalkettDF310.000.0000.0014
KartumMF220.030.0100.0412
KabanguFW210.000.000−0.0100
WilsonFW2110.060.0120.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McCrorie and Donnelly: 3 passesLyons and Watson: 3 passesMayo and Watson: 3 passesArmstrong and Watson: 3 passesArmstrong and Murray: 3 passesWatson and Donnelly: 3 passesWatson and Vassell: 3 passesMurray and Vassell: 4 passesMcCrorie and Vassell: 5 passesNdaba and Vassell: 5 passesMayo and Donnelly: 6 passesMcCrorie and Findlay: 7 passesLyons and Armstrong: 7 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 7 passesFindlay and Murray: 8 passesNdaba and Donnelly: 8 passesNdaba and Murray: 8 passesMcCrorie and Mayo: 14 passesMayo and Findlay: 15 passesLyons and Mayo: 16 passesMcCrorie: 18 completed passesLyons: 15 completed passesMayo: 28 completed passesFindlay: 24 completed passesNdaba: 18 completed passesArmstrong: 8 completed passesWatson: 11 completed passesDonnelly: 17 completed passesMurray: 11 completed passesWales: 2 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes208517311122215249McCrorieLyonsMayoFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMurrayWalesVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Forrester: 3 passesClark and Kent: 4 passesKingsley and Devlin: 4 passesBaningime and Shankland: 4 passesForrester and Forrest: 5 passesKent and Devlin: 5 passesMilne and Nieuwenhof: 5 passesDevlin and Baningime: 5 passesNieuwenhof and Dhanda: 5 passesKent and Baningime: 6 passesKingsley and Milne: 6 passesForrester and Kent: 7 passesMilne and Dhanda: 7 passesKingsley and Dhanda: 8 passesKent and Kingsley: 14 passesClark: 9 completed passesForrester: 7 completed passesKent: 21 completed passesKingsley: 21 completed passesMilne: 13 completed passesDevlin: 11 completed passesNieuwenhof: 8 completed passesBaningime: 12 completed passesForrest: 8 completed passesShankland: 6 completed passesDhanda: 11 completed passes28352318148617920ClarkForresterKentKingsleyMilneDevlinNieuwenhofBaningimeForrestShanklandDhandaStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaDonnelly12
McCrorieMayo11
MayoLyons10
MurrayNdaba9
MayoMcCrorie8

Hearts

FromToPasses
BaningimeDevlin13
KingsleyMilne13
KentKingsley13
KingsleyKent12
KentBaningime11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−1.65−3.013−3.56+1.32−4.65−2.54−3.08+1.68+1.33−2.24−0.30−3.58+3.73−1.86+2.82−1.72−0.13−0.63−1.23+0.84+2.40−0.92+0.51−1.62+1.30−0.53+2.31+0.51+0.21−6.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 37 matches

Hearts

1−3.06+0.415+2.33−3.46+1.39+2.84−1.99+1.94−3.44−1.53−1.34+0.75−0.44−2.81−3.64+0.74+1.15+1.42−2.50−2.21−0.71−0.41−0.92−0.71+0.30−0.31+0.30−0.410.02−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 37 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.040.020.010.010.020.020.040.010.030.020.020.020.120.03−0.020.020.070.080.04−0.06−0.020.080.180.20LessMore

Hearts

0.010.040.010.010.010.020.020.010.030.020.050.020.020.050.020.03−0.01−0.040.05−0.010.04−0.050.080.08LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.27 → 1.26Hearts1.40 → 1.38Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.37 → 1.36Hearts1.21 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.331.26
Win38%34%
Expected Points1.411.31
Clean sheet28%26%

Kilmarnock 38%Draw 28%Hearts 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%2%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 May 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–314 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.53–2.57
  2. W3–210 MayDundee FC (H)xG 3.50–0.99
  3. W2–03 MaySt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.39–1.43
  4. W2–026 AprRoss County (H)xG 1.28–0.27
  5. L1–512 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.29–1.81
  6. W2–05 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.22–0.18

Hearts

  1. W2–114 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.79–0.94
  2. W3–010 MayMotherwell (H)xG 0.52–0.42
  3. W3–13 MayRoss County (A)xG 2.19–1.27
  4. L0–126 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.46–0.71
  5. D0–012 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.12–0.27
  6. L0–16 AprDundee United (H)xG 1.21–0.82

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position9th7th
Played3737
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠8–⁠1714–⁠7–⁠16
Points44 (1.19 per game)49 (1.32 per game)
Expected Points per game1.321.42
Goals45–⁠6351–⁠47
xG per game1.37–⁠1.451.33–⁠1.29
Home: points, xG per game1.78, 1.80–⁠1.111.58, 1.37–⁠1.12
Away: points, xG per game0.63, 0.97–⁠1.781.06, 1.29–⁠1.46
ManagerChris Burke (0)Liam Fox (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.27, 5thHearts1.40, 4thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.37, 6thHearts1.21, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock attack: 1.27Hearts attack: 1.401.401.27HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock defence: 1.37Hearts defence: 1.211.371.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+4%−1%−14%
Counter-attacks−45%−19%+4%−18%
Set pieces+22%+14%+3%−2%
Penalties+54%−23%−81%+16%
Headers+1%−9%−10%+9%
Left sideaverage−2%+14%−13%
Centre−13%+8%−5%−9%
Right side−6%+3%−2%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft sideaverage−15%Centre−13%−9%Right side−6%−13%Open play−15%−14%Counter-attacks−45%−18%Set pieces+22%−2%Headers+1%+9%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+14%+3%Centre−5%+8%Right side−2%−2%Open play−1%+4%Counter-attacks+4%−19%Set pieces+3%+14%Headers−10%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.37xG1.33
1.45xG against1.29
44%Possession54%
12.7Shots12.8
12.8Shots against10.5
3.9Shots on target4.3
2.1Big chances2.2
22.1Touches in the opposition box24.9
306Passes445
65%Pass accuracy77%
5.5Corners6.3
44%Field tilt58%
31.7Final-third entries40.6
10.1Box entries12.1
14.7Passes per defensive action13.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.401.50
Ahead201.601.20
Behind301.191.56

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.251.36
Ahead251.451.04
Behind251.351.40

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.246–7
16–300.210.205–9
31–450.150.244–9
46–600.190.259–9
61–750.240.228–10
76–900.350.2913–19

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.146–5
16–300.170.208–7
31–450.210.267–8
46–600.200.2610–8
61–750.180.159–10
76–900.400.2911–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 20O'Hara 17Mayo 13Lyons 11Armstrong 4Wright 19Mayo 18Deas 17Findlay 15Ndaba 19Deas 6Lyons 5Armstrong 21Murray 3Wright 3Watson 17Lyons 10Murray 3Donnelly 13Polworth 13Ndaba 4Murray 14Kennedy 11Wales 5Watkins 21Wales 8Murray 3Vassell 20Anderson 12Watson 24-4-2 in 20 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (20), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 33Fulton 2Clark 2Forrester 18Oyegoke 11Taylor 6Kent 16Halkett 13Steinwender 7Rowles 20McCart 10Kingsley 2Penrice 30Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 21Kartum 4Penrice 1Baningime 14Boateng 13Grant 10Drammeh 9Forrest 6Baningime 6Shankland 14Grant 9Baningime 4Spittal 19Kabangu 6Forrest 5Shankland 14Wilson 13Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 16 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (16), 4-3-1-2 (6), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-3 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05
15 December 2024Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.57–1.15
30 October 2024Hearts1–2KilmarnockxG 1.11–1.73
27 April 2024Kilmarnock0–0HeartsxG 0.89–1.95
30 March 2024Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 1.61–1.55
2 December 2023Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.16–0.73

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Hearts won 3, and 4 were drawn. Goals 11–12 and xG 1.42–1.37 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson151,4291110.670.05
Kennedy131,129410.160.32
Vassell201,509210.320.10
Armstrong251,974380.140.26

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabangu11984610.500.09
Drammeh11977310.450.07
Vargas141,208430.330.15
Shankland282,504880.300.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.