Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 1–1 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 3 December 2025, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 15 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 18,508

Hearts Shankland 49'

Kilmarnock Anderson 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsKilmarnock
Goals11
xG2.191.80
Expected Points1.621.08

Hearts 44%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 2–2, 16%. Final score 1–1, 8%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%1%2%8%11%4%2%11%6%1%1%7%10%4%3%4%1%1%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSpittal on for Forrest and Braga on for Kaboré, 66'McEntee on for Borchgrevink, 81'Watson on for Thomson, 62'Tiffoney on for Schilte-Brown, Anderson on for Lowery, and Dackers on for John-Jules, 71'Polworth on for Lyons, 81'Shankland 49'Anderson 90'Hearts 2.19Kilmarnock 1.8001230153045607590HTSpittal on for Forrest and Braga on for Kaboré, 66'McEntee on for Borchgrevink, 81'Watson on for Thomson, 62'Tiffoney on for Schilte-Brown, Anderson on for Lowery, and Dackers on for John-Jules, 71'Polworth on for Lyons, 81'Shankland 49'Anderson 90'2.191.80HeartsKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsKilmarnock

2.19 +0.46xG1.80 +0.59
1.13 −1.04xG on target1.86 +0.70
18 +3Shots11 +1
3 −2.6Shots on target5 +1.2
3 +0.6Big chances4 +2.1
45 +15Touches in the opposition box18 −1
65% +11Possession35% −4
572 +135Passes318 +8
80% +3Pass accuracy64% −6
63% +1Field tilt37% +1
56 +12Final-third entries31 +4
22 +8.3Box entries9 +0.1
13.9 +3Passes per defensive action28.4 +13
9 +3.4Corners1 −3.6
21 +2Tackles12 −5
5 −3.5Interceptions12 +2.6
19 −12Clearances39 +5
4 +1.9Saves2 −0.9
4 −8Fouls11 −2
1 −0.4Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Kaboré 31', 0.85 xGShankland 52', 0.19 xGKaboré 64', 0.14 xGMagnússon 58', 0.11 xGShankland 15', 0.10 xGShankland 35', 0.09 xGDevlin 9', 0.08 xGSpittal 78', 0.08 xGMagnússon 9', 0.07 xGBraga 85', 0.05 xGMagnússon 37', 0.03 xGKent 8', 0.02 xGFindlay 9', 0.02 xGDevlin 37', 0.02 xGShankland 73', 0.02 xGKyziridis 84', 0.02 xGForrest 17', 0.01 xGShankland 49', 0.30 xG, goal53%1.15 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.15 xG, 0 goals35%0.77 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.77 xG, 1 goal5%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals5%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Brown 39', 0.74 xGTiffoney 88', 0.10 xGDackers 90+5', 0.08 xGDackers 75', 0.06 xGLyons 79', 0.05 xGJohn-Jules 36', 0.04 xGKiltie 39', 0.03 xGPolworth 90', 0.03 xGLyons 28', 0.02 xGWatson 77', 0.02 xGAnderson 90', 0.63 xG, goal82%1.46 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.46 xG, 1 goal8%0.14 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals9%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsKilmarnock

1.58 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.70 10 shots, 1 goal
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.53 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (57%) · Hearts 1.58, Kilmarnock 0.92 xG
Hearts ahead
41 min (43%) · Hearts 0.61, Kilmarnock 0.87 xG

Line-ups

25122191817221489119SchwolowBorchgrevinkKentFindlayMilneForrestMagnússonDevlinKyziridisKaboréShanklandYellow cardGoal81'66'66'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes202556152218382411OluwayemiSchilte-BrownMayoDeasBrownThomsonLoweryThompsonLyonsJohn-JulesKiltieYellow cardYellow card71'62'71'81'71'Kilmarnock 3-4-3Stuart Kettlewell

Hearts substitutes

  • 66' Spittal for Forrest
  • 66' Braga for Kaboré
  • 81' McEntee for Borchgrevink

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 62' Watson for Thomson
  • 71' Anderson for Lowery · goal 90'
  • 71' Dackers for John-Jules
  • 71' Tiffoney for Schilte-Brown
  • 81' Polworth for Lyons

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0100.0430
BorchgrevinkRB810.000.4710.35103
KentCB900.020.0800.1278
FindlayCB900.020.0100.1498
MilneLB900.000.3430.43129
ForrestRM660.010.0400.0521
Magnússon CM900.210.0500.0654
DevlinCM900.090.2210.1268
KyziridisLM900.020.3430.3062
KaboréST6610.980.3730.1020
ShanklandST9010.700.0510.0451
SpittalMF240.080.041−0.0521
BragaFW240.050.0810.1310
McEnteeDF90.000.0000.0221

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0100.0890
Schilte-BrownCB710.000.0000.0347
MayoCB900.000.0110.05613
Deas CB900.000.0500.1036
Brown RWB900.740.0000.00211
ThomsonCM620.000.0410.0237
LoweryCM710.000.010−0.0136
ThompsonLWB900.000.2010.2148
LyonsRW810.070.0100.0115
John-JulesST710.040.0110.0102
KiltieLW900.030.092−0.0831
WatsonMF280.020.0610.1120
AndersonFW1910.630.000−0.0100
DackersFW190.140.0000.0003
TiffoneyFW190.100.050−0.1400
PolworthMF90.030.0100.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Kent and Forrest: 7 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 7 passesDevlin and Shankland: 7 passesKaboré and Shankland: 7 passesSchwolow and Kent: 8 passesBorchgrevink and Kaboré: 8 passesMilne and Magnússon: 8 passesForrest and Magnússon: 9 passesMagnússon and Kyziridis: 9 passesBorchgrevink and Magnússon: 11 passesKent and Magnússon: 11 passesFindlay and Kyziridis: 11 passesBorchgrevink and Devlin: 12 passesForrest and Devlin: 12 passesDevlin and Magnússon: 13 passesBorchgrevink and Kent: 14 passesSchwolow and Findlay: 15 passesBorchgrevink and Forrest: 17 passesFindlay and Magnússon: 17 passesMilne and Kyziridis: 17 passesFindlay and Devlin: 19 passesFindlay and Milne: 22 passesMilne and Devlin: 22 passesKent and Devlin: 23 passesKent and Findlay: 24 passesSchwolow: 21 completed passesBorchgrevink: 42 completed passesKent: 49 completed passesFindlay: 59 completed passesMilne: 45 completed passesForrest: 27 completed passesDevlin: 63 completed passesMagnússon: 42 completed passesKyziridis: 27 completed passesKaboré: 11 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passes25122191817142289119SchwolowBorchgrevinkKentFindlayMilneForrestDevlinMagnússonKyziridisKaboréShanklandStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Thompson: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Lyons: 3 passesMayo and Deas: 3 passesMayo and Lowery: 3 passesBrown and John-Jules: 3 passesThompson and John-Jules: 3 passesLowery and Lyons: 3 passesLowery and John-Jules: 3 passesLowery and Kiltie: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Mayo: 4 passesSchilte-Brown and Lowery: 4 passesSchilte-Brown and John-Jules: 4 passesMayo and Lyons: 4 passesLyons and Kiltie: 4 passesSchilte-Brown and Thomson: 5 passesBrown and Lyons: 5 passesOluwayemi and Schilte-Brown: 6 passesDeas and Lowery: 6 passesBrown and Thomson: 6 passesOluwayemi and John-Jules: 7 passesThompson and Lowery: 7 passesThompson and Thomson: 7 passesThompson and Kiltie: 7 passesLowery and Thomson: 12 passesOluwayemi: 13 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 16 completed passesMayo: 11 completed passesDeas: 8 completed passesBrown: 9 completed passesThompson: 17 completed passesLowery: 26 completed passesThomson: 18 completed passesLyons: 12 completed passesJohn-Jules: 6 completed passesKiltie: 10 completed passes202556153182282411OluwayemiSchilte-BrownMayoDeasBrownThompsonLoweryThomsonLyonsJohn-JulesKiltieStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
FindlayMilne16
DevlinKent15
KentFindlay14
MilneDevlin13
MilneKyziridis13

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
OluwayemiJohn-Jules7
LyonsBrown7
LoweryThomson7
LoweryDeas5
ThomsonLowery5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−2.65−1.33−0.15−3.06−0.612+3.78+1.64−2.67+0.95−0.69+1.67+1.93−3.17+2.42−0.93−1.43−1.75+2.12−0.61−0.93+1.21−2.00−1.01+0.60−0.32+1.62+0.90−4.07−3.83−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Kilmarnock

4−2.612+3.124+8.116+9.88+4.19+1.810+3.411+3.94−4.45−0.55−0.84−1.12−1.25+0.14−1.34−0.41−3.62−0.64+1.15+1.60−3.02−0.20−1.90−1.83+1.40−1.00−0.60−1.00−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.020.040.010.040.030.130.070.010.050.020.090.050.100.070.140.100.020.050.060.190.18−0.10−0.010.200.28LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.010.020.040.010.020.010.010.010.040.030.010.020.010.050.010.060.010.070.01−0.16−0.15−0.010.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.55 → 1.54Kilmarnock1.16 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.05 → 1.06Kilmarnock1.52 → 1.51

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title7%3%−4
Kilmarnock
Top six6%7%+1
11th18%18%0
Bottom13%10%−3
Celtic
Title91%94%+3
Dundee FC
11th29%30%+1
Bottom36%37%+1

From the forecast before the match (3 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals2.030.82
Win65%14%
Expected Points2.170.62
Clean sheet44%13%

Hearts 65%Draw 21%Kilmarnock 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%7%3%4%3%1%2%1%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawKilmarnock win
Hearts
Title7%8%3%4%
Kilmarnock
Top six6%4%7%11%
11th18%20%18%12%
Bottom13%15%10%7%
Celtic
Title91%90%94%94%
Dundee FC
11th29%28%30%32%
Bottom36%35%37%39%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D0–029 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.41–0.58
  2. L0–123 NovAberdeen (A)xG 2.30–0.56
  3. D1–19 NovDundee United (H)xG 0.45–0.34
  4. W4–01 NovDundee FC (H)xG 3.43–0.10
  5. D2–229 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.57–1.01
  6. W3–126 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.57–0.88

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–129 NovDundee United (H)xG 2.11–1.86
  2. L1–322 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.73–2.24
  3. L0–49 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.38–2.85
  4. L1–31 NovFalkirk (A)xG 0.43–2.08
  5. L0–129 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.55
  6. L1–326 OctRangers (A)xG 1.04–1.36

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position1st10th
Played1414
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠4–⁠12–⁠5–⁠7
Points31 (2.21 per game)11 (0.79 per game)
Expected Points per game2.001.05
Goals29–⁠1115–⁠26
xG per game1.73–⁠0.731.21–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game2.43, 1.63–⁠0.760.75, 1.43–⁠1.61
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 1.83–⁠0.700.83, 0.91–⁠2.00
ManagerDerek McInnes (14)Stuart Kettlewell (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.55, 3rdKilmarnock1.16, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.05, 3rdKilmarnock1.52, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHearts attack: 1.55Kilmarnock attack: 1.161.551.16KilmarnockHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHearts defence: 1.05Kilmarnock defence: 1.521.521.05

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+12%−33%−34%+14%
Counter-attacks+8%−79%+31%+37%
Set pieces+75%−36%+40%+21%
Penalties+17%−100%−61%+134%
Headers+48%−48%+5%+24%
Left side+30%−40%−48%+32%
Centre+50%−55%+24%+23%
Right side−19%−5%−26%−1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+30%−1%Centre+50%+23%Right side−19%+32%Open play+12%+14%Counter-attacks+8%+37%Set pieces+75%+21%Headers+48%+24%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−48%−5%Centre+24%−55%Right side−26%−40%Open play−34%−33%Counter-attacks+31%−79%Set pieces+40%−36%Headers+5%−48%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

1.73xG1.21
0.73xG against1.78
54%Possession39%
14.9Shots10.4
8.7Shots against13.6
5.6Shots on target3.8
2.4Big chances1.9
29.8Touches in the opposition box19.1
437Passes310
77%Pass accuracy70%
5.6Corners4.6
62%Field tilt36%
43.8Final-third entries27.5
13.7Box entries8.9
10.7Passes per defensive action15.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.180.53
Ahead292.510.95
Behind122.050.96

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.221.47
Ahead161.242.29
Behind371.191.86

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.082–1
16–300.250.085–4
31–450.230.134–3
46–600.360.127–2
61–750.190.125–1
76–900.560.206–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.280–3
16–300.150.333–7
31–450.340.246–2
46–600.200.163–4
61–750.150.351–6
76–900.310.422–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 10Clark 4McEntee 10Kent 3Steinwender 1Halkett 12Steinwender 2Findlay 13Shankland 1Kingsley 7Milne 4Devlin 2Milne 6Braga 4McEntee 1Baningime 7McEntee 2Magnússon 2Devlin 12Spittal 4Kyziridis 9Milne 3Spittal 1Shankland 12Findlay 1Braga 8Kaboré 3McEntee 14-4-2 in 9 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTStryjek 7Oluwayemi 4Beach 3Stanger 10Schilte-Brown 3Lyons 1Mayo 11Deas 13Williams 3Brown 7Brandon 4Brannan 2Watson 14McKenzie 3Polworth 9Anderson 2Lyons 7Kiltie 4Lowery 3Thompson 11Brannan 3Dackers 10Daniels 4Tiffoney 3Anderson 7Kiltie 33-5-2 in 4 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 October 2025Kilmarnock0–3HeartsxG 0.43–2.88
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05
15 December 2024Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.57–1.15
30 October 2024Hearts1–2KilmarnockxG 1.11–1.73
27 April 2024Kilmarnock0–0HeartsxG 0.89–1.95

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Kilmarnock won 3, and 4 were drawn. Goals 16–11 and xG 1.44–1.31 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga121,059610.570.16
Kyziridis10945340.160.37
Shankland131,163710.370.10
Milne141,215130.070.14

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson9777210.390.06
Dackers10907100.290.12
Kiltie7624020.060.25
Watson141,215310.220.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.