Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 1–0 Hearts

Sunday 15 December 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 17 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 5,474

Kilmarnock Anderson 18' (pen) · Deas sent off 6'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hearts
Goals	1	0
xG	1.57	1.15
Non-penalty xG	0.78	1.15
Expected Points	1.73	0.97

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 30%Hearts 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 1–0, 12%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

1.57 +0.30xG1.15 −0.03

0.78Non-penalty xG1.15

1.88 +0.86xG on target1.04 +0.03

7 −6Shots14 +1

5 +1.8Shots on target4 +0.6

2 +0.1Big chances2 −0.1

14 −6Touches in the opposition box32 +7

25% −18Possession75% +21

217 −86Passes649 +197

55% −11Pass accuracy86% +8

12% −29Field tilt88% +32

23 −8Final-third entries105 +63

5 −4.1Box entries14 +2.1

29.3 +13Passes per defensive action8.8 −4

3 −2.1Corners6 −0.4

17 +2Tackles11 −9

12 +3.2Interceptions5 −4.4

54 +20Clearances19 −3

4 +0.6Saves4 +1.7

6 −4Fouls11 −1

1 −0.2Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Hearts

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

0.54 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.74 9 shots, 0 goals

0.12 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.41 5 shots, 0 goals

0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–0

Level: 18 min (18%) · Kilmarnock 0.79, Hearts 0.13 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 82 min (82%) · Kilmarnock 0.78, Hearts 1.02 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

11' Watson for Wales
46' O'Hara for McCrorie
46' Donnelly for Anderson · off 84'
71' Cameron for Watkins
84' McKenzie for Donnelly

Hearts substitutes

46' Grant for Boateng
46' Dhanda for Forrest
53' Wilson for Vargas
53' Boyce for Spittal
87' Forrester for Oyegoke

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
McCrorie	GK	46		0.00	0.00	0	0.04	4	1
Wright	CB	90		0.06	0.00	0	0.01	2	12
Deas	CB	6		0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	2
Ndaba	CB	90		0.06	0.00	1	0.19	4	9
Murray	RWB	90		0.00	0.01	0	0.07	7	9
Polworth	CM	90		0.00	0.25	2	0.05	4	9
Mayo	CM	90		0.00	0.01	0	0.02	2	17
Lyons	LWB	90		0.00	0.04	1	0.03	2	8
Wales	RW	11		0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0
Watkins	ST	71		0.38	0.10	1	−0.01	0	4
Anderson	LW	46	1	0.79	0.00	0	−0.01	0	2
Watson	MF	79		0.12	0.03	1	0.02	2	7
O'Hara	GK	44		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	1
Donnelly	DF	38		0.16	0.00	0	0.01	1	3
Cameron	FW	19		0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1
McKenzie	MF	6		0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Hearts

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Gordon	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	0	0
Oyegoke	RB	87	0.00	0.09	0	0.16	19	1
Halkett	CB	90	0.35	0.03	0	0.35	9	4
Rowles	CB	90	0.00	0.09	2	0.28	14	9
Penrice	LB	90	0.11	0.09	0	0.09	7	5
Devlin	DM	90	0.00	0.72	1	0.40	10	5
Boateng	DM	46	0.07	0.08	0	−0.09	3	1
Drammeh	RW	90	0.21	0.01	0	0.11	1	1
Spittal	AM	53	0.00	0.08	3	−0.02	2	2
Forrest	LW	46	0.10	0.03	0	0.02	5	0
Vargas	ST	53	0.00	0.07	0	0.08	3	1
Grant	MF	44	0.04	0.04	0	0.05	7	3
Dhanda	MF	44	0.03	0.17	3	0.07	4	2
Wilson	FW	37	0.23	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Boyce	FW	37	0.00	0.01	0	−0.04	0	2
Forrester	DF	3	0.00	0.01	0	0.01	0	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Polworth	Murray	6
Wright	Lyons	5
Polworth	Ndaba	5
Ndaba	Polworth	4
Polworth	Watkins	4

Hearts

From	To	Passes
Rowles	Halkett	23
Devlin	Rowles	23
Halkett	Rowles	22
Halkett	Devlin	21
Rowles	Penrice	20

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 16 matches

Hearts

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Hearts

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
Top six	20%	28%	+8
11th	13%	9%	−4
Bottom	9%	5%	−4
Hearts
Top six	27%	18%	−9
11th	9%	11%	+2
Bottom	5%	8%	+3

From the forecast before the match (15 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hearts
Expected goals	1.39	1.23
Win	40%	33%
Expected Points	1.47	1.25
Clean sheet	29%	25%

Kilmarnock 40%Draw 27%Hearts 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

From the forecast as it stood on 15 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Hearts win
Kilmarnock
Top six	20%	28%	16%	11%
11th	13%	9%	13%	17%
Bottom	9%	5%	8%	13%
Hearts
Top six	27%	18%	25%	39%
11th	9%	11%	9%	5%
Bottom	5%	8%	5%	2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Hearts

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hearts
Position	11th	12th
Played	16	16
Won, drawn, lost	3–⁠5–⁠8	3–⁠4–⁠9
Points	14 (0.88 per game)	13 (0.81 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.16	1.22
Goals	17–⁠34	18–⁠25
xG per game	1.27–⁠1.71	1.18–⁠1.51
Home: points, xG per game	1.00, 1.79–⁠1.49	1.12, 1.31–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game	0.80, 0.96–⁠1.84	0.50, 1.05–⁠1.79
Manager	Derek McInnes (92)	Neil Critchley (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Hearts
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−19%	+23%	−15%	−3%
Counter-attacks	−59%	−23%	−22%	+4%
Set pieces	+23%	+25%	+7%	+7%
Penalties	−24%	+14%	−100%	+52%
Headers	+4%	+1%	−13%	+27%
Left side	−3%	+1%	+9%	+12%
Centre	−13%	+31%	−17%	−6%
Right side	−12%	+14%	−12%	+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−3%+2%Centre−13%−6%Right side−12%+12%Open play−19%−3%Counter-attacks−59%+4%Set pieces+23%+7%Headers+4%+27%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+9%+14%Centre−17%+31%Right side−12%+1%Open play−15%+23%Counter-attacks−22%−23%Set pieces+7%+25%Headers−13%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.27xG1.18

1.71xG against1.51

42%Possession54%

12.8Shots12.9

15.6Shots against11.9

3.2Shots on target3.4

1.9Big chances2.1

19.8Touches in the opposition box25.4

303Passes452

66%Pass accuracy78%

5.1Corners6.4

41%Field tilt56%

31.2Final-third entries42.3

9.1Box entries11.9

16.0Passes per defensive action13.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	47	1.18	1.54
Ahead	7	1.22	2.39
Behind	35	1.40	1.81

Hearts

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	43	1.11	1.78
Ahead	14	1.32	1.01
Behind	33	1.22	1.37

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.15	0.28	1–2
16–30	0.13	0.20	1–4
31–45	0.20	0.32	2–7
46–60	0.14	0.28	3–6
61–75	0.28	0.28	3–6
76–90	0.37	0.35	7–9

Hearts

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.22	0.24	1–3
16–30	0.13	0.15	3–2
31–45	0.15	0.32	3–5
46–60	0.11	0.30	1–5
61–75	0.15	0.18	4–4
76–90	0.41	0.32	6–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Hearts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
30 October 2024	Hearts	1–2	Kilmarnock	xG 1.11–1.73
27 April 2024	Kilmarnock	0–0	Hearts	xG 0.89–1.95
30 March 2024	Hearts	1–1	Kilmarnock	xG 1.61–1.55
2 December 2023	Kilmarnock	0–1	Hearts	xG 1.16–0.73
13 August 2023	Hearts	0–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.39–0.73
1 April 2023	Kilmarnock	2–1	Hearts	xG 2.72–0.68

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 2, Hearts won 2, and 4 were drawn. Goals 8–9 and xG 1.44–1.25 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Anderson	4	473	4	0	0.66	0.09
Kennedy	11	948	4	1	0.19	0.32
Watkins	11	953	3	0	0.40	0.04
Vassell	15	1,136	1	1	0.26	0.07

Hearts

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Shankland	16	1,401	3	3	0.33	0.15
Vargas	11	900	2	1	0.27	0.12
Forrest	7	642	1	0	0.16	0.12
Spittal	12	1,054	2	2	0.11	0.17

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.