Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 0–3 Hearts

Saturday 18 October 2025, 17:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 8 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 9,026

Hearts Halkett 19', Braga 57', 61'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals03
xG0.432.88
Expected Points0.122.81

Kilmarnock 2%Draw 7%Hearts 91%

Most likely score 0–3, 19%. Final score 0–3, 19%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%8%12%5%2%4%8%9%6%2%2%2%1%17%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTLyons on for Polworth and Williams on for Stanger, 59'Magennis on for Kiltie and Brandon on for Brown, 72'Tiffoney on for Dackers, 81'Steinwender on for Halkett, 71'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 75'Spittal on for Shankland, 87'Magnússon on for Braga and Kabangu on for Milne, 88'Halkett 19'Braga 57'Braga 61'Hearts 2.88Kilmarnock 0.4301230153045607590HTLyons on for Polworth and Williams on for Stanger, 59'Magennis on for Kiltie and Brandon on for Brown, 72'Tiffoney on for Dackers, 81'Steinwender on for Halkett, 71'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 75'Spittal on for Shankland, 87'Magnússon on for Braga and Kabangu on for Milne, 88'Halkett 19'Braga 57'Braga 61'2.880.43KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

0.43 −0.92xG2.88 +1.22
0.21 −1.23xG on target2.80 +0.57
7 −4Shots19 +4
2 −2.0Shots on target5 −0.9
0 −2.4Big chances4 +1.9
17 −1Touches in the opposition box38 +6
41% +4Possession59% +6
350 +54Passes515 +94
71% 0Pass accuracy80% +2
30% −3Field tilt70% +5
32 +6Final-third entries34 −10
11 +3.1Box entries17 +3.1
18.4 +3Passes per defensive action14.6 +4
4 −0.7Corners5 −1.4
18 0Tackles25 +5
8 −2.6Interceptions5 −4.3
32 −7Clearances28 −2
2 −1.3Saves2 0.0
16 +3Fouls12 0
0 −1.4Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Dackers 38', 0.12 xGBrown 13', 0.08 xGDackers 34', 0.08 xGAnderson 16', 0.04 xGAnderson 55', 0.04 xGWatson 15', 0.03 xGWatson 38', 0.02 xG19%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals45%0.19 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals36%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Devlin 45+2', 0.45 xGHalkett 26', 0.17 xGHalkett 26', 0.16 xGKyziridis 64', 0.09 xGFindlay 90+2', 0.09 xGMilne 67', 0.08 xGMcEntee 40', 0.07 xGKingsley 84', 0.07 xGKyziridis 57', 0.06 xGMilne 51', 0.05 xGDevlin 26', 0.04 xGShankland 53', 0.03 xGBraga 45', 0.02 xGKingsley 71', 0.02 xGKyziridis 41', 0.01 xGKyziridis 68', 0.01 xGBraga 61', 0.69 xG, goalBraga 57', 0.53 xG, goalHalkett 19', 0.25 xG, goal32%0.93 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.93 xG, 1 goal59%1.70 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 1.70 xG, 2 goals4%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

0.12 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.50 9 shots, 2 goals
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.45 1 shot, 0 goals
0.23 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.93 9 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
19 min (20%) · Kilmarnock 0.16, Hearts 0.25 xG
Hearts ahead
75 min (80%) · Kilmarnock 0.27, Hearts 2.64 xG

Line-ups

301514563123111199BeachBrownStangerMayoDeasThompsonWatsonPolworthKiltieAndersonDackersYellow cardYellow cardYellow card72'59'59'72'81'Kilmarnock 5-3-2Stuart Kettlewell253141931814689109SchwolowMcEnteeHalkettFindlayKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandGoalYellow cardGoalGoal71'88'75'88'87'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 59' Williams for Stanger
  • 59' Lyons for Polworth
  • 72' Brandon for Brown
  • 72' Magennis for Kiltie
  • 81' Tiffoney for Dackers

Hearts substitutes

  • 71' Steinwender for Halkett
  • 75' Forrest for Kyziridis · yellow card 86'
  • 87' Spittal for Shankland
  • 88' Magnússon for Braga
  • 88' Kabangu for Milne

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BeachGK900.000.0000.0552
BrownRWB720.080.0310.09410
Stanger CB590.000.0100.0325
MayoCB900.000.0200.0659
Deas CB900.000.0310.1689
ThompsonLWB900.000.0810.26105
Watson CM900.050.0400.0956
PolworthCM590.000.0100.0132
KiltieCM720.000.031−0.0200
AndersonST900.090.0410.0221
DackersST810.200.0100.0342
WilliamsDF310.000.010−0.0135
LyonsMF310.000.0000.0003
BrandonDF180.000.0000.0005
MagennisMF180.000.0000.0000
TiffoneyFW90.000.0100.0100

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0001
McEnteeRB900.070.0200.0086
HalkettCB7110.590.0000.01112
FindlayCB900.090.0010.0542
KingsleyLB900.090.1100.25129
MilneRM8810.130.1930.0724
Devlin CM900.490.1030.1409
BaningimeCM900.000.0600.02110
KyziridisLM7510.170.5830.14111
BragaST8821.240.2720.2032
ShanklandST870.030.0910.0532
SteinwenderDF190.000.0200.0212
Forrest MF150.000.000−0.0111
SpittalMF30.000.0000.0100
MagnússonMF20.000.0000.0000
KabanguFW20.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Stanger and Watson: 3 passesMayo and Kiltie: 3 passesDeas and Kiltie: 3 passesDeas and Watson: 3 passesThompson and Anderson: 3 passesKiltie and Polworth: 3 passesKiltie and Watson: 3 passesKiltie and Dackers: 3 passesBeach and Deas: 4 passesMayo and Dackers: 4 passesThompson and Dackers: 4 passesWatson and Anderson: 4 passesAnderson and Dackers: 4 passesStanger and Brown: 5 passesBrown and Watson: 5 passesPolworth and Dackers: 5 passesStanger and Polworth: 6 passesMayo and Polworth: 6 passesBeach and Dackers: 7 passesThompson and Kiltie: 7 passesBeach and Stanger: 8 passesDeas and Thompson: 8 passesMayo and Deas: 9 passesThompson and Polworth: 9 passesStanger and Mayo: 12 passesBrown and Polworth: 15 passesBeach: 13 completed passesStanger: 20 completed passesMayo: 22 completed passesDeas: 17 completed passesBrown: 17 completed passesThompson: 23 completed passesKiltie: 12 completed passesPolworth: 28 completed passesWatson: 11 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passesDackers: 9 completed passes301456153113112199BeachStangerMayoDeasBrownThompsonKiltiePolworthWatsonAndersonDackersStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Schwolow and Halkett: 6 passesDevlin and Braga: 6 passesBraga and Shankland: 6 passesMilne and Devlin: 7 passesMcEntee and Halkett: 8 passesKyziridis and Braga: 8 passesKingsley and Shankland: 9 passesMilne and Baningime: 9 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 10 passesDevlin and Shankland: 10 passesBaningime and Kyziridis: 10 passesMcEntee and Milne: 14 passesKingsley and Braga: 15 passesKingsley and Devlin: 17 passesKingsley and Baningime: 17 passesDevlin and Baningime: 18 passesKingsley and Kyziridis: 19 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 19 passesSchwolow: 13 completed passesMcEntee: 22 completed passesFindlay: 24 completed passesHalkett: 22 completed passesKingsley: 50 completed passesMilne: 29 completed passesDevlin: 52 completed passesBaningime: 38 completed passesKyziridis: 28 completed passesBraga: 18 completed passesShankland: 21 completed passes253119431814689109SchwolowMcEnteeFindlayHalkettKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoDeas11
StangerMayo8
PolworthBrown8
DeasMayo7
BrownPolworth7

Hearts

FromToPasses
DevlinKingsley16
KingsleyBraga13
KingsleyKyziridis13
BaningimeKingsley11
BaningimeDevlin10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4−3.612+2.620+3.02−2.07−1.63−4.15−2.46−4.02−3.79+2.45−0.14+1.34−0.711+5.69+3.93−2.33+0.66+3.130.01−2.60−1.90−2.45+4.02+0.90−1.10−0.60−1.30−0.61−0.13−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Hearts

8+4.65−0.412+1.76+0.96+3.110+2.47−1.19+2.47−0.48+2.011+2.73−2.94−1.08+0.77+1.360.03−1.34+1.12−3.34−2.01−1.61−1.72+0.42+0.62−1.10−1.60−0.10−0.30−0.40−1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.010.040.010.010.030.020.040.020.050.040.01−0.010.020.050.040.020.030.010.110.08−0.050.19LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.030.010.060.030.020.010.010.030.030.040.02−0.020.04−0.020.090.080.050.050.030.110.140.12LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.26 → 1.22Hearts1.49 → 1.54Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39 → 1.45Hearts1.13 → 1.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six55%48%−7
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Hearts
Title2%3%+1
Top six99%>99%+1
Hibernian
Top six83%84%+1
Aberdeen
Top six19%21%+2
11th10%10%0
Bottom5%4%−1

From the forecast before the match (18 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.241.36
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.271.45
Clean sheet26%29%

Kilmarnock 33%Draw 28%Hearts 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%9%9%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHearts win
Kilmarnock
Top six55%65%54%48%
11th3%2%3%4%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Hearts
Title2%1%2%3%
Top six99%99%99%>99%
Hibernian
Top six83%81%83%84%
Aberdeen
Top six19%18%19%21%
11th10%9%10%10%
Bottom5%5%5%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–04 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.15–0.43
  2. W2–027 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.49–2.21
  3. L1–214 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.66–2.83
  4. D2–230 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.20–1.76
  5. D0–023 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.11–0.26
  6. D2–210 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.94–1.77

Hearts

  1. W1–04 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.80–0.39
  2. W3–027 SepFalkirk (H)xG 1.94–0.67
  3. W2–013 SepRangers (A)xG 2.37–1.11
  4. W2–130 AugLivingston (A)xG 1.42–0.50
  5. D3–323 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.21–1.52
  6. W3–210 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.87–0.71

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position4th1st
Played77
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠16–⁠1–⁠0
Points10 (1.43 per game)19 (2.71 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.94
Goals11–⁠816–⁠6
xG per game1.35–⁠1.581.66–⁠0.90
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.46–⁠1.342.50, 1.49–⁠0.99
Away: points, xG per game1.67, 1.21–⁠1.913.00, 1.89–⁠0.77
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (7)Derek McInnes (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.26, 6thHearts1.49, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39, 7thHearts1.13, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.26Hearts attack: 1.491.491.26HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.39Hearts defence: 1.131.391.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%−9%−8%−6%
Counter-attacks+85%+52%+64%−97%
Set pieces+39%+11%+55%−33%
Penalties−100%+137%+58%−100%
Headers+46%+40%+43%−45%
Left side−46%+28%+43%−34%
Centre+53%−19%+13%−38%
Right side−24%+33%+14%+17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−46%+17%Centre+53%−38%Right side−24%−34%Open play−16%−6%Counter-attacks+85%−97%Set pieces+39%−33%Headers+46%−45%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+43%+33%Centre+13%−19%Right side+14%+28%Open play−8%−9%Counter-attacks+64%+52%Set pieces+55%+11%Headers+43%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.35xG1.66
1.58xG against0.90
37%Possession53%
10.7Shots15.0
13.4Shots against9.7
4.0Shots on target5.9
2.4Big chances2.1
18.4Touches in the opposition box31.9
296Passes421
71%Pass accuracy78%
4.7Corners6.4
33%Field tilt66%
25.7Final-third entries44.4
7.9Box entries13.9
15.4Passes per defensive action10.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.161.10
Ahead291.352.24
Behind112.312.15

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.500.45
Ahead311.841.29
Behind141.771.43

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.140–0
16–300.250.223–2
31–450.290.274–1
46–600.180.122–1
61–750.170.270–2
76–900.420.562–2

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.071–0
16–300.290.113–3
31–450.210.141–1
46–600.180.183–1
61–750.160.193–1
76–900.700.215–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTStryjek 7Stanger 5Schilte-Brown 2Lyons 1Mayo 7Deas 6Brown 3Brandon 3Brannan 1Watson 7McKenzie 2Polworth 7Lyons 2Kiltie 2Lowery 1Thompson 4Brannan 3Dackers 6Daniels 4Anderson 3Kiltie 13-5-2 in 2 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTClark 4Schwolow 3McEntee 3Kent 3Steinwender 1Halkett 7Findlay 6Shankland 1Kingsley 3Devlin 2Milne 1Braga 2Milne 2McEntee 1Baningime 3McEntee 2Borchgrevink 1Devlin 5Spittal 3Milne 3Kyziridis 3Forrest 1Shankland 6Findlay 1Braga 4McEntee 1Milne 14-4-2 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (3), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05
15 December 2024Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.57–1.15
30 October 2024Hearts1–2KilmarnockxG 1.11–1.73
27 April 2024Kilmarnock0–0HeartsxG 0.89–1.95
30 March 2024Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 1.61–1.55

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Hearts won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 11–13 and xG 1.39–1.31 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watson7605310.370.04
Dackers6556100.270.14
Polworth7560110.050.17
Deas6540100.070.02

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga6527310.650.08
Shankland7629410.410.09
Milne7617110.080.16
Findlay7630300.110.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.