Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 1–1 Hibernian

Saturday 15 March 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 30 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 6,703

Kilmarnock Murray 90+2'

Hibernian Boyle 25'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHibernian
Goals11
xG0.642.01
Expected Points0.432.37

Kilmarnock 8%Draw 19%Hibernian 73%

Most likely score 0–2, 17%. Final score 1–1, 11%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+4%10%4%1%3%11%8%3%3%4%2%14%17%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTWatson on for Deas and Polworth on for Armstrong, 54'Ramsay on for Kennedy and Anderson on for Watkins, 73'Cameron on for Lyons, 90+1'Gayle on for Bowie, 60'Moriah-Welsh on for Levitt and Campbell on for Hoilett, 81'Kukharevych on for Boyle, 87'Murray 90+2'Boyle 25'Hibernian 2.01Kilmarnock 0.6401230153045607590HTWatson on for Deas and Polworth on for Armstrong, 54'Ramsay on for Kennedy and Anderson on for Watkins, 73'Cameron on for Lyons, 90+1'Gayle on for Bowie, 60'Moriah-Welsh on for Levitt and Campbell on for Hoilett, 81'Kukharevych on for Boyle, 87'Murray 90+2'Boyle 25'2.010.64KilmarnockHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHibernian

0.64 −0.76xG2.01 +0.44
0.80 −0.39xG on target0.68 −0.87
11 −2Shots16 +4
4 +0.1Shots on target3 −1.0
2 0.0Big chances3 +0.6
22 −1Touches in the opposition box35 +13
48% +3Possession52% +6
341 +25Passes355 +22
68% +2Pass accuracy74% +1
35% −10Field tilt65% +17
31 −2Final-third entries33 −1
7 −3.6Box entries19 +9.3
11.2 −4Passes per defensive action11.7 −4
4 −1.8Corners5 −0.9
15 0Tackles13 0
13 +4.3Interceptions9 +1.3
39 +3Clearances45 +12
2 −0.6Saves4 +1.3
10 0Fouls13 +2
7 +5.9Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Wales 48', 0.07 xGWright 21', 0.06 xGPolworth 71', 0.05 xGPolworth 72', 0.05 xGWatkins 20', 0.04 xGWright 21', 0.04 xGArmstrong 25', 0.03 xGWales 36', 0.03 xGKennedy 12', 0.02 xGMurray 74', 0.01 xGMurray 90+2', 0.24 xG, goal5%0.03 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals70%0.44 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal6%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals16%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Bushiri 70', 0.36 xGTriantis 68', 0.15 xGBoyle 65', 0.11 xGBushiri 45+1', 0.10 xGBowie 43', 0.09 xGBoyle 47', 0.09 xGTriantis 45+1', 0.07 xGLevitt 66', 0.07 xGKukharevych 90+7', 0.07 xGTriantis 40', 0.06 xGBoyle 8', 0.05 xGBowie 15', 0.05 xGLevitt 19', 0.04 xGHoilett 23', 0.04 xGBowie 4', 0.02 xGBoyle 25', 0.64 xG, goal23%0.47 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals65%1.30 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.30 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals12%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHibernian

0.41 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.55 8 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.73 2 shots, 1 goal
0.23 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.73 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (31%) · Kilmarnock 0.20, Hibernian 0.91 xG
Hibernian ahead
68 min (69%) · Kilmarnock 0.44, Hibernian 1.10 xG

Line-ups

20546311810152423McCrorieMayoWrightDeasNdabaArmstrongLyonsKennedyMurrayWalesWatkinsYellow cardYellow cardGoal54'54'90+1'73'73'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes13233152126612102320SmithMillerBushiriIredaleObitaTriantisLevittCaddenBoyleHoilettBowieGoal81'87'81'60'Hibernian 3-4-2-1David Gray

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 54' Watson for Deas
  • 54' Polworth for Armstrong
  • 73' Ramsay for Kennedy
  • 73' Anderson for Watkins
  • 90+1' Cameron for Lyons

Hibernian substitutes

  • 60' Gayle for Bowie
  • 81' Campbell for Hoilett
  • 81' Moriah-Welsh for Levitt
  • 87' Kukharevych for Boyle

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0221
MayoRB900.000.0000.03316
WrightCB9010.100.122−0.09212
Deas CB540.000.0000.0359
Ndaba LB900.000.0210.0459
ArmstrongRM540.030.1300.1565
LyonsCM900.000.0110.0365
KennedyCM730.020.0210.0882
MurrayLM9010.250.0610.1625
WalesST900.100.0120.0204
WatkinsST730.040.000−0.0201
WatsonMF360.000.0000.0101
PolworthMF360.090.2700.2441
RamsayDF170.000.000−0.0111
AndersonFW170.000.0000.0000
CameronFW00.000.2000.0310

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SmithGK900.000.0000.0321
MillerCB900.000.0800.15715
BushiriCB900.460.0010.02312
IredaleCB900.000.0420.141018
ObitaRWB900.000.3920.1494
TriantisCM900.280.021−0.0456
LevittCM8110.110.2520.2380
CaddenLWB900.000.0910.1559
BoyleAM8710.890.4030.0630
HoilettAM810.040.3610.2972
BowieST600.150.0110.0022
GayleFW300.000.0300.0111
CampbellMF90.000.010−0.0300
Moriah-WelshMF90.000.0300.0230
KukharevychFW30.070.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Lyons and Wales: 3 passesMcCrorie and Wright: 4 passesMayo and Armstrong: 4 passesWales and Kennedy: 4 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 5 passesDeas and Mayo: 5 passesMcCrorie and Mayo: 6 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 6 passesNdaba and Lyons: 6 passesWright and Mayo: 7 passesDeas and Murray: 7 passesMurray and Kennedy: 7 passesDeas and Kennedy: 8 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 12 passesDeas and Ndaba: 18 passesMcCrorie: 14 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesDeas: 25 completed passesMayo: 14 completed passesArmstrong: 14 completed passesNdaba: 18 completed passesLyons: 15 completed passesMurray: 6 completed passesWales: 4 completed passesKennedy: 16 completed passesWatkins: 4 completed passes20465113815241023McCrorieWrightDeasMayoArmstrongNdabaLyonsMurrayWalesKennedyWatkinsStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Iredale and Triantis: 4 passesIredale and Bowie: 4 passesMiller and Triantis: 4 passesCadden and Boyle: 4 passesMiller and Levitt: 5 passesLevitt and Bowie: 5 passesSmith and Iredale: 6 passesLevitt and Boyle: 6 passesObita and Bowie: 6 passesIredale and Obita: 7 passesIredale and Hoilett: 7 passesCadden and Triantis: 8 passesSmith and Bushiri: 9 passesIredale and Bushiri: 9 passesTriantis and Levitt: 9 passesIredale and Levitt: 10 passesLevitt and Obita: 10 passesObita and Hoilett: 10 passesLevitt and Hoilett: 12 passesMiller and Bushiri: 14 passesMiller and Cadden: 14 passesBushiri and Levitt: 14 passesSmith: 14 completed passesIredale: 27 completed passesMiller: 24 completed passesBushiri: 30 completed passesCadden: 18 completed passesTriantis: 18 completed passesLevitt: 39 completed passesObita: 22 completed passesHoilett: 17 completed passesBoyle: 8 completed passesBowie: 8 completed passes13152331226621231020SmithIredaleMillerBushiriCaddenTriantisLevittObitaHoilettBoyleBowieStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasNdaba10
NdabaPolworth10
ArmstrongKennedy8
NdabaDeas8
WrightMayo7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriMiller10
MillerCadden10
IredaleObita9
ObitaHoilett8
LevittHoilett7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

6+1.413+5.320+3.37−0.72−3.010+4.18+0.86−0.94−2.64−2.57+1.840.07+3.46+1.34−1.01−2.24+0.25+2.86+2.71−3.30−1.92+0.31+0.22+0.53+0.20−0.60−0.41+0.21+0.63+2.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Hibernian

7+2.59+2.212−4.26−1.82−2.97+0.112+6.56−0.313+6.53−3.60−5.19+5.06+3.02−3.05+0.35+1.41−2.72−0.24+0.89+4.81−1.02+0.70−1.14+2.52−0.20−0.73+2.62+1.30−0.40−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.020.010.010.010.040.010.010.020.070.060.020.010.050.030.05−0.050.03−0.010.020.160.13LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.010.040.010.010.020.020.030.040.030.030.040.010.050.07−0.020.160.120.03−0.190.010.200.190.22LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.25 → 1.22Hibernian1.42 → 1.44Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.38Hibernian1.23 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%–0
11th9%10%+1
Bottom2%2%0
Dundee FC
11th49%49%0
Bottom35%35%0

From the forecast before the match (15 March 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHibernian
Expected goals1.351.29
Win38%35%
Expected Points1.401.32
Clean sheet28%26%

Kilmarnock 38%Draw 27%Hibernian 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 March 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHibernian win
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%1%––
11th9%5%10%13%
Bottom2%<1%2%3%
Dundee FC
11th49%52%49%46%
Bottom35%36%35%34%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–11 MarRoss County (A)xG 2.52–1.10
  2. L2–426 FebRangers (H)xG 1.38–1.95
  3. L0–122 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.08
  4. W3–115 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.40–0.67
  5. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.39–1.46
  6. L2–325 JanHearts (A)xG 1.05–2.51

Hibernian

  1. W2–12 MarHearts (H)xG 0.61–0.69
  2. W3–126 FebDundee United (A)xG 1.53–0.71
  3. W2–122 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.67–1.78
  4. D0–016 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.37–0.70
  5. W2–01 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.60–0.48
  6. D1–125 JanRoss County (A)xG 0.69–1.78

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHibernian
Position10th3rd
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠7–⁠1411–⁠10–⁠8
Points31 (1.07 per game)43 (1.48 per game)
Expected Points per game1.331.50
Goals33–⁠4744–⁠40
xG per game1.40–⁠1.471.57–⁠1.35
Home: points, xG per game1.57, 1.84–⁠1.181.73, 1.71–⁠1.18
Away: points, xG per game0.60, 0.99–⁠1.751.21, 1.42–⁠1.53
ManagerDerek McInnes (105)David Gray (31)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.25, 5thHibernian1.42, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35, 5thHibernian1.23, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 1.25Hibernian attack: 1.421.421.25HibernianKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.35Hibernian defence: 1.231.351.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+8%−7%−17%
Counter-attacks−44%−16%+7%+41%
Set pieces+24%+13%+35%−2%
Penalties+11%−33%+56%+11%
Headers−4%−3%+18%−8%
Left side+5%average+6%−25%
Centre−10%+15%+11%+1%
Right side+4%−4%−3%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side+5%−5%Centre−10%+1%Right side+4%−25%Open play−9%−17%Counter-attacks−44%+41%Set pieces+24%−2%Headers−4%−8%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+6%−4%Centre+11%+15%Right side−3%averageOpen play−7%+8%Counter-attacks+7%−16%Set pieces+35%+13%Headers+18%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHibernian

1.40xG1.57
1.47xG against1.35
45%Possession46%
13.0Shots12.3
12.7Shots against11.5
3.9Shots on target4.0
2.0Big chances2.4
22.7Touches in the opposition box22.3
316Passes334
66%Pass accuracy72%
5.8Corners5.9
45%Field tilt48%
32.7Final-third entries33.7
10.6Box entries9.7
14.9Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.391.50
Ahead171.601.38
Behind291.301.49

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.471.23
Ahead271.531.29
Behind221.781.63

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.235–3
16–300.210.193–6
31–450.150.272–9
46–600.170.247–8
61–750.280.217–8
76–900.340.339–13

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.234–8
16–300.290.238–5
31–450.260.1510–6
46–600.190.184–4
61–750.350.187–2
76–900.330.3811–15

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 18O'Hara 11Lyons 10Mayo 6Armstrong 4Mayo 17Wright 15Deas 12Findlay 9Ndaba 11Deas 6Lyons 5Armstrong 14Wright 3Murray 2Watson 13Murray 3Watkins 1Polworth 12Lyons 7Donnelly 7Murray 10Kennedy 10Ndaba 3Watkins 19Wales 5Cameron 2Vassell 19Anderson 6Donnelly 24-4-2 in 13 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSmith 16Bursik 13Iredale 16Boyle 5Obita 4Bushiri 17Ekpiteta 12O'Hora 26C. Cadden 15Miller 14Triantis 21Kwon 5Moriah-Welsh 3Newell 15Obita 10Levitt 3N. Cadden 14Kwon 7Triantis 4Campbell 13Boyle 4Hoilett 4Kukharevych 13Campbell 2Vente 1Boyle 11Hoilett 8Gayle 73-4-1-2 in 13 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (13), 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 December 2024Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 2.32–0.25
1 September 2024Kilmarnock1–1HibernianxG 2.54–0.44
27 January 2024Kilmarnock2–2HibernianxG 1.69–1.58
11 November 2023Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 0.41–0.46
16 September 2023Kilmarnock2–2HibernianxG 0.83–0.92
18 February 2023Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 2.94–0.82

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hibernian won 7, and 3 were drawn. Goals 7–15 and xG 0.93–1.30 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson9943800.800.06
Kennedy11969410.180.33
Watkins201,740410.400.04
Vassell191,425210.320.09

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hoilett121,017310.340.27
Kukharevych141,076400.550.02
N. Cadden191,552540.230.27
Boyle201,845840.360.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.