Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 1–1 Hibernian

Sunday 1 September 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 4 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 7,763

Kilmarnock Anderson 90+2' (pen)

Hibernian Newell 50'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hibernian
Goals	1	1
xG	2.54	0.44
Non-penalty xG	1.75	0.44
Expected Points	2.78	0.14

Kilmarnock 90%Draw 8%Hibernian 2%

Most likely score 2–0, 22%. Final score 1–1, 5%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHibernian

2.54 +1.75xG0.44 −0.41

1.75Non-penalty xG0.44

1.20 +0.84xG on target0.92 +0.41

14 +5.3Shots9 −1.7

3 +1.0Shots on target4 +2.3

4 +2.3Big chances0 −1.0

21 +5Touches in the opposition box18 −4

52% +18Possession48% +4

339 +91Passes311 +21

65% +5Pass accuracy60% −7

45% +16Field tilt55% +9

37 +12Final-third entries19 −15

11 +5.3Box entries8 +1.0

9.3 −10Passes per defensive action9.8 −7

4 +0.3Corners7 +1.7

18 +7Tackles16 +3

5 −6.0Interceptions7 +0.7

36 +5Clearances29 +8

3 −1.0Saves2 −1.0

10 −2Fouls17 +6

2 +1.0Offsides2 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Hibernian

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHibernian

0.59 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.16 4 shots, 0 goals

0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

1.16 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.27 4 shots, 1 goal

0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–1

Level: 56 min (57%) · Kilmarnock 1.02, Hibernian 0.21 xG
Hibernian ahead: 42 min (43%) · Kilmarnock 1.51, Hibernian 0.23 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

73' McKenzie for Kennedy
73' Murray for Armstrong
73' Wales for Watson
73' Cameron for Vassell
74' Burroughs for Ndaba

Hibernian substitutes

62' N. Cadden for Molotnikov
74' C. Cadden for Boyle
74' Bowie for Kukharevych

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
O'Hara	GK	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.04	4	2
Mayo	RB	90		0.00	0.01	0	0.07	7	10
Wright	CB	90		0.12	0.06	1	0.01	1	10
Findlay	CB	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.06	7	7
Ndaba	LB	74		0.00	0.01	0	0.05	6	9
Armstrong	RM	73		0.02	0.06	2	0.04	3	3
Watson	CM	73		0.16	0.01	1	−0.04	3	4
Polworth	CM	90		0.00	0.12	1	0.18	9	8
Kennedy	LM	73		0.06	0.21	3	0.12	5	0
Vassell	ST	73		1.14	0.00	0	0.03	1	4
Anderson	ST	90	1	0.94	0.32	2	0.27	2	2
McKenzie	DF	17		0.00	0.01	0	−0.01	0	1
Murray	MF	17		0.00	0.14	1	0.21	4	1
Wales	FW	17		0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Cameron	FW	17		0.08	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Burroughs	DF	16		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Bursik	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	3	0
Miller	RB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.01	6	11
Ekpiteta	CB	90			0.17	0.00	0	0.04	5	9
O'Hora	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	7
Obita	LB	90			0.01	0.01	0	0.01	3	1
Kwon	CM	90			0.07	0.16	2	0.23	6	4
Triantis	CM	90			0.06	0.02	0	0.07	6	13
Newell	CM	90	1		0.01	0.01	2	0.01	2	8
Boyle	RW	74		1	0.06	0.00	1	0.01	2	0
Kukharevych	ST	74			0.04	0.01	0	0.00	0	2
Molotnikov	LW	62			0.00	0.01	0	0.01	1	0
N. Cadden	DF	28			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	1
C. Cadden	DF	16			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	0
Bowie	FW	16			0.00	0.01	0	0.00	0	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Hibernian

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Ndaba	Kennedy	10
Mayo	Wright	9
Wright	Mayo	9
Wright	Findlay	8
Polworth	Armstrong	6

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Kwon	Miller	12
Miller	Kwon	8
Miller	Ekpiteta	7
Triantis	Obita	6
Obita	O'Hora	6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 3 matches

Hibernian

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Hibernian

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
Top six	28%	26%	−2
11th	11%	12%	+1
Bottom	9%	10%	+1
Hibernian
Top six	42%	42%	0
11th	6%	6%	0
Bottom	3%	3%	0
Ross County
11th	21%	20%	−1
Bottom	26%	26%	0

From the forecast before the match (1 September 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hibernian
Expected goals	1.40	1.15
Win	42%	30%
Expected Points	1.54	1.18
Clean sheet	32%	25%

Kilmarnock 42%Draw 28%Hibernian 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

From the forecast as it stood on 1 September 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Hibernian win
Kilmarnock
Top six	28%	36%	26%	19%
11th	11%	9%	12%	15%
Bottom	9%	6%	10%	12%
Hibernian
Top six	42%	34%	42%	54%
11th	6%	8%	6%	4%
Bottom	3%	5%	3%	2%
Ross County
11th	21%	20%	20%	22%
Bottom	26%	28%	26%	24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Hibernian

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hibernian
Position	12th	11th
Played	3	3
Won, drawn, lost	0–⁠0–⁠3	0–⁠1–⁠2
Points	0 (0.00 per game)	1 (0.33 per game)
Expected Points per game	0.60	1.00
Goals	0–⁠9	2–⁠7
xG per game	0.79–⁠2.19	0.85–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game	0.00, 1.74–⁠1.79	0.50, 0.49–⁠1.72
Away: points, xG per game	0.00, 0.32–⁠2.38	0.00, 1.58–⁠1.20
Manager	Derek McInnes (79)	David Gray (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Hibernian
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−42%	+41%	−23%	+2%
Counter-attacks	−40%	−55%	−48%	+137%
Set pieces	+38%	+12%	−3%	−34%
Penalties	−67%	+86%	−67%	−35%
Headers	−15%	−15%	−64%	−26%
Left side	−27%	−9%	−13%	average
Centre	−28%	+40%	−35%	+10%
Right side	−9%	+17%	−2%	+20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−27%+20%Centre−28%+10%Right side−9%averageOpen play−42%+2%Counter-attacks−40%+137%Set pieces+38%−34%Headers−15%−26%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−13%+17%Centre−35%+40%Right side−2%−9%Open play−23%+41%Counter-attacks−48%−55%Set pieces−3%+12%Headers−64%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHibernian

0.79xG0.85

2.19xG against1.55

34%Possession44%

8.7Shots10.7

18.7Shots against12.7

2.0Shots on target1.7

1.7Big chances1.0

16.3Touches in the opposition box22.0

248Passes290

61%Pass accuracy68%

3.7Corners5.3

29%Field tilt46%

25.3Final-third entries33.6

5.7Box entries7.0

18.8Passes per defensive action16.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	14	0.10	2.93
Ahead	0	–	–
Behind	76	0.92	2.05

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	30	1.47	1.86
Ahead	5	0.00	1.12
Behind	55	0.61	1.42

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.01	0.29	0–1
16–30	0.05	0.30	0–2
31–45	0.12	0.59	0–2
46–60	0.02	0.35	0–1
61–75	0.20	0.22	0–1
76–90	0.39	0.43	0–2

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.20	0.49	0–2
16–30	0.12	0.14	0–1
31–45	0.08	0.03	1–0
46–60	0.02	0.29	0–1
61–75	0.28	0.28	1–0
76–90	0.16	0.32	0–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Hibernian

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
27 January 2024	Kilmarnock	2–2	Hibernian	xG 1.69–1.58
11 November 2023	Hibernian	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.41–0.46
16 September 2023	Kilmarnock	2–2	Hibernian	xG 0.83–0.92
18 February 2023	Hibernian	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 2.94–0.82
12 November 2022	Kilmarnock	1–0	Hibernian	xG 0.96–0.85
3 September 2022	Hibernian	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 1.44–0.39

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hibernian won 6, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–13 and xG 0.83–1.28 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Armstrong	39	3,244	6	10	0.23	0.27
Vassell	34	2,705	9	3	0.26	0.05
Watkins	35	2,881	9	3	0.26	0.05
Kennedy	32	2,942	3	3	0.15	0.15

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Vente	28	2,092	5	3	0.25	0.08
Boyle	31	2,764	6	3	0.19	0.14
Campbell	12	1,057	3	1	0.11	0.07
Newell	39	3,458	2	5	0.03	0.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.