Matches › 2024/25

Hibernian 1–0 Kilmarnock

Sunday 29 December 2024, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 20 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Dan McFarlane · Attendance 19,265

Hibernian Triantis 25'

Kilmarnock Armstrong sent off 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Goals	1	0
xG	2.32	0.25
Expected Points	2.84	0.09

Hibernian 92%Draw 7%Kilmarnock 1%

Most likely score 2–0, 29%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

2.32 +0.67xG0.25 −1.17

0.95 −0.56xG on target0.31 −0.87

7 −6Shots5 −8

2 −2.2Shots on target3 −0.7

3 +0.5Big chances1 −1.1

21 −2Touches in the opposition box10 −11

60% +14Possession40% −3

421 +98Passes274 −35

73% +2Pass accuracy65% −1

66% +16Field tilt34% −8

47 +13Final-third entries28 −3

7 −3.1Box entries9 −0.7

13.1 −2Passes per defensive action13.7 −2

5 −0.8Corners10 +4.8

12 −2Tackles11 −4

9 +1.6Interceptions14 +5.2

40 +9Clearances40 +6

3 +0.2Saves1 −2.2

8 −4Fouls14 +4

2 +0.5Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

0.32 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.09 3 shots, 0 goals

0.71 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.15 1 shot, 0 goals

1.30 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.01 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–0

Level: 25 min (26%) · Hibernian 1.45, Kilmarnock 0.18 xG
Hibernian ahead: 70 min (74%) · Hibernian 0.87, Kilmarnock 0.07 xG

Line-ups

Hibernian substitutes

46' Kwon for Newell · yellow card 53'
68' Obita for Iredale
74' Gayle for Hoilett

Kilmarnock substitutes

31' Deas for Wright
71' Magennis for Polworth
71' Anderson for Vassell
71' Cameron for Wales
90+3' Burroughs for Watson

Players

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Smith	GK	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.04	1	0
Miller	CB	90			0.14	0.01	0	0.13	12	17
Bushiri	CB	90			0.73	0.01	0	0.04	5	9
Iredale	CB	68			0.00	0.01	0	0.03	2	4
C. Cadden	RWB	90			0.00	0.02	0	0.05	8	2
Triantis	CM	90	1		0.53	0.03	2	0.03	3	6
Newell	CM	46			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	2
N. Cadden	LWB	90		1	0.09	0.34	1	0.10	7	5
Campbell	AM	90			0.00	0.04	0	0.01	3	6
Boyle	ST	90			0.00	0.30	2	0.20	2	0
Hoilett	ST	74			0.83	0.74	2	0.18	4	3
Kwon	MF	44			0.00	0.01	0	0.00	1	4
Obita	DF	22			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	3
Gayle	FW	16			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	1

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
McCrorie	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.03	4	1
Lyons	RB	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.03	4	11
Wright	CB	31	0.01	0.00	0	0.02	2	2
Mayo	CB	90	0.00	0.01	0	0.05	4	18
Ndaba	LB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	4	9
Armstrong	RM	63	0.00	0.30	1	0.08	4	4
Watson	CM	90	0.00	0.05	1	0.07	3	1
Polworth	CM	71	0.00	0.01	1	−0.04	2	1
Murray	LM	90	0.05	0.01	1	0.09	7	4
Vassell	ST	71	0.18	0.00	0	0.03	1	0
Wales	ST	71	0.02	0.05	0	0.10	2	1
Deas	DF	59	0.00	0.02	1	0.06	5	12
Magennis	MF	19	0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	3
Anderson	FW	19	0.00	0.07	0	0.06	1	0
Cameron	FW	19	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Burroughs	DF	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Bushiri	Miller	19
Miller	C. Cadden	13
N. Cadden	Campbell	10
Triantis	Bushiri	9
Iredale	N. Cadden	8

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Polworth	Murray	12
Ndaba	Deas	12
Polworth	Ndaba	7
Murray	Ndaba	6
McCrorie	Vassell	5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

Against its average of 19 matches

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Hibernian
Top six	44%	56%	+12
11th	3%	2%	−1
Bottom	1%	<1%	−1
Kilmarnock
Top six	36%	26%	−10
11th	3%	4%	+1
Bottom	1%	2%	+1

From the forecast before the match (29 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.63	1.12
Win	49%	26%
Expected Points	1.72	1.02
Clean sheet	33%	20%

Hibernian 49%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

From the forecast as it stood on 29 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Hibernian win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
Hibernian
Top six	44%	56%	37%	28%
11th	3%	2%	3%	5%
Bottom	1%	<1%	1%	2%
Kilmarnock
Top six	36%	26%	38%	55%
11th	3%	4%	3%	2%
Bottom	1%	2%	1%	<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Position	7th	8th
Played	19	19
Won, drawn, lost	5–⁠6–⁠8	5–⁠6–⁠8
Points	21 (1.11 per game)	21 (1.11 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.40	1.31
Goals	26–⁠31	23–⁠35
xG per game	1.65–⁠1.56	1.42–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game	1.11, 1.81–⁠1.38	1.50, 2.04–⁠1.33
Away: points, xG per game	1.10, 1.50–⁠1.72	0.82, 0.97–⁠1.74
Manager	David Gray (21)	Derek McInnes (95)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Hibernian		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	+2%	−4%	−11%	+13%
Counter-attacks	−10%	+93%	−41%	−37%
Set pieces	+37%	+31%	+36%	+23%
Penalties	+56%	−37%	−6%	−6%
Headers	+8%	+17%	+3%	+3%
Left side	average	−17%	+18%	average
Centre	+20%	+33%	−2%	+18%
Right side	+4%	+6%	−12%	+11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft sideaverage+11%Centre+20%+18%Right side+4%averageOpen play+2%+13%Counter-attacks−10%−37%Set pieces+37%+23%Headers+8%+3%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side+18%+6%Centre−2%+33%Right side−12%−17%Open play−11%−4%Counter-attacks−41%+93%Set pieces+36%+31%Headers+3%+17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.65xG1.42

1.56xG against1.57

46%Possession43%

13.4Shots13.1

12.8Shots against14.5

4.2Shots on target3.7

2.5Big chances2.1

23.2Touches in the opposition box20.7

323Passes309

72%Pass accuracy67%

5.8Corners5.2

50%Field tilt42%

34.1Final-third entries31.2

10.1Box entries9.7

15.0Passes per defensive action15.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	39	1.57	1.34
Ahead	22	1.78	1.57
Behind	28	1.65	1.85

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	43	1.38	1.50
Ahead	14	1.67	1.60
Behind	33	1.36	1.65

xG by period

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.14	0.28	2–5
16–30	0.27	0.26	3–4
31–45	0.33	0.14	7–5
46–60	0.21	0.22	3–4
61–75	0.40	0.20	5–0
76–90	0.29	0.44	6–13

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.17	0.24	1–2
16–30	0.22	0.21	3–5
31–45	0.18	0.28	2–7
46–60	0.20	0.25	4–6
61–75	0.26	0.27	4–6
76–90	0.39	0.31	9–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (5), 3-4-1-2 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
1 September 2024	Kilmarnock	1–1	Hibernian	xG 2.54–0.44
27 January 2024	Kilmarnock	2–2	Hibernian	xG 1.69–1.58
11 November 2023	Hibernian	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.41–0.46
16 September 2023	Kilmarnock	2–2	Hibernian	xG 0.83–0.92
18 February 2023	Hibernian	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 2.94–0.82
12 November 2022	Kilmarnock	1–0	Hibernian	xG 0.96–0.85

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 6, Kilmarnock won 1, and 3 were drawn. Goals 14–7 and xG 1.19–1.00 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
N. Cadden	9	757	4	2	0.36	0.34
Kukharevych	13	983	3	0	0.57	0.02
Hoilett	10	809	2	1	0.26	0.23
Youan	11	894	2	1	0.35	0.12

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Anderson	6	596	6	0	0.73	0.07
Kennedy	11	948	4	1	0.19	0.32
Watkins	13	1,075	3	0	0.38	0.04
Vassell	17	1,310	2	1	0.33	0.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.