Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 1–3 Hibernian

Saturday 3 January 2026, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 21 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 6,040

Kilmarnock John-Jules 57' · Watson sent off 80'

Hibernian Youan 5', 71', McGrath 90+1' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHibernian
Goals13
xG0.442.78
Non-penalty xG0.441.99
Expected Points0.102.84

Kilmarnock 1%Draw 6%Hibernian 92%

Most likely score 0–3, 20%. Final score 1–3, 10%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%11%4%3%10%10%5%2%2%2%1%20%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTWatson (Kilmarnock), red card 80'Thomson on for Lyons, 46'Schjønning-Larsen on for Thompson, 61'Watkins on for Anderson, 73'Tiffoney on for Polworth and Dackers on for Watkins, 85'Cadden on for Megwa, 34'Mitchell on for Iredale and Obita on for Hoilett, 52'Molotnikov on for Youan and Bowie on for Klidje, 73'John-Jules 57'Youan 5'Youan 71'McGrath 90+1' (pen)Hibernian 2.78Kilmarnock 0.4401230153045607590HTWatson (Kilmarnock), red card 80'Thomson on for Lyons, 46'Schjønning-Larsen on for Thompson, 61'Watkins on for Anderson, 73'Tiffoney on for Polworth and Dackers on for Watkins, 85'Cadden on for Megwa, 34'Mitchell on for Iredale and Obita on for Hoilett, 52'Molotnikov on for Youan and Bowie on for Klidje, 73'John-Jules 57'Youan 5'Youan 71'McGrath 90+1' (pen)2.780.44KilmarnockHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHibernian

0.44 −0.74xG2.78 +1.07
0.44Non-penalty xG1.99
0.86 −0.26xG on target3.57 +2.02
8 −3Shots14 +1
1 −2.8Shots on target9 +3.8
1 −0.7Big chances4 +1.5
20 0Touches in the opposition box31 +7
44% +4Possession56% +8
384 +68Passes498 +96
69% −1Pass accuracy81% +2
51% +13Field tilt49% +2
46 +16Final-third entries41 +5
9 −0.3Box entries14 +3.1
16.4 0Passes per defensive action14.2 −3
5 +0.7Corners3 −2.2
21 +5Tackles14 +2
8 −0.5Interceptions6 −2.1
31 −4Clearances66 +38
6 +2.8Saves0 −3.2
13 0Fouls13 +2
3 +1.3Offsides2 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Lyons 19', 0.07 xGJohn-Jules 44', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 43', 0.03 xGAnderson 46', 0.03 xGThomson 77', 0.03 xGJohn-Jules 90+5', 0.03 xGThompson 45+1', 0.01 xGJohn-Jules 57', 0.19 xG, goal16%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals57%0.25 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.25 xG, 1 goal18%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals7%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Youan 38', 0.18 xGKlidje 40', 0.17 xGMcGrath 71', 0.15 xGBarlaser 70', 0.14 xGYouan 40', 0.09 xGMegwa 15', 0.07 xGHoilett 11', 0.06 xGHoilett 12', 0.05 xGMolotnikov 90+6', 0.04 xGMcGrath 11', 0.03 xGBarlaser 85', 0.03 xGYouan 71', 0.82 xG, goalYouan 5', 0.16 xG, goal49%0.98 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.98 xG, 2 goals20%0.41 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals6%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals22%0.45 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHibernian

0.33 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.34 7 shots, 1 goal
0.11 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.65 6 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
19 min (19%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Hibernian 1.26 xG
Hibernian ahead
79 min (81%) · Kilmarnock 0.44, Hibernian 1.52 xG

Line-ups

202652563128311924OluwayemiBrannanMayoSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonWatsonLyonsPolworthAndersonJohn-JulesYellow cardSent offGoal61'46'85'73'Kilmarnock 5-3-2Kris Doolan154152720221723187SallingerO'HoraHanleyIredaleMegwaMulliganBarlaserMcGrathHoilettKlidjeYouanYellow cardGoalGoalGoalYellow card52'34'52'73'73'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Thomson for Lyons · yellow card 90'
  • 61' Schjønning-Larsen for Thompson
  • 73' Watkins for Anderson · off 85'
  • 85' Dackers for Watkins · yellow card 87'
  • 85' Tiffoney for Polworth

Hibernian substitutes

  • 34' Cadden for Megwa
  • 52' Mitchell for Iredale
  • 52' Obita for Hoilett · yellow card 90+5'
  • 73' Molotnikov for Youan
  • 73' Bowie for Klidje

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0100.0871
BrannanRWB900.000.1110.1374
MayoCB900.000.0100.05613
Schilte-BrownCB900.000.0000.01011
Deas CB900.000.0110.0863
ThompsonLWB610.010.0200.0465
Watson CM800.000.0100.0135
LyonsCM460.070.0000.0106
PolworthCM850.000.0700.1133
AndersonST730.030.0210.0000
John-JulesST9010.300.0510.0131
Thomson MF440.030.0400.0965
Schjønning-LarsenDF290.000.0100.0001
WatkinsFW120.000.010−0.0201
Dackers FW50.000.0000.0000
TiffoneyFW50.000.061−0.0401

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Sallinger GK900.000.0100.0423
O'HoraCB900.000.0000.07821
HanleyCB900.000.0100.06225
IredaleCB520.000.0600.1232
MegwaRWB340.070.0000.0002
MulliganCM900.000.1020.3363
BarlaserCM9010.160.2320.2874
McGrathLWB9010.970.4720.1095
HoilettAM520.110.0100.0133
KlidjeST730.170.000−0.0211
Youan ST7321.250.202−0.0311
CaddenMF560.000.0000.0245
MitchellDF380.000.0000.0117
Obita MF380.000.0600.2174
MolotnikovMF170.040.0100.0211
BowieFW170.000.021−0.1602

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Schilte-Brown: 3 passesOluwayemi and Mayo: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Thompson: 3 passesDeas and Lyons: 3 passesThompson and Watson: 3 passesWatson and Lyons: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Lyons: 4 passesThompson and John-Jules: 4 passesDeas and Polworth: 5 passesDeas and John-Jules: 5 passesThompson and Polworth: 5 passesWatson and John-Jules: 5 passesBrannan and Lyons: 7 passesBrannan and Mayo: 8 passesPolworth and John-Jules: 8 passesOluwayemi: 7 completed passesBrannan: 12 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 6 completed passesDeas: 11 completed passesMayo: 14 completed passesThompson: 14 completed passesWatson: 9 completed passesPolworth: 13 completed passesLyons: 11 completed passesJohn-Jules: 9 completed passesAnderson: 4 completed passes202625653123182419OluwayemiBrannanSchilte-BrownDeasMayoThompsonWatsonPolworthLyonsJohn-JulesAndersonStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Iredale and Mulligan: 4 passesO'Hora and Megwa: 4 passesBarlaser and Youan: 4 passesHoilett and Youan: 4 passesSallinger and Barlaser: 5 passesIredale and Hoilett: 5 passesIredale and Youan: 5 passesO'Hora and Mulligan: 5 passesHanley and McGrath: 5 passesMulligan and Youan: 5 passesSallinger and Iredale: 6 passesMulligan and McGrath: 6 passesBarlaser and Hoilett: 8 passesMcGrath and Hoilett: 8 passesMcGrath and Youan: 8 passesO'Hora and Hanley: 9 passesIredale and Barlaser: 10 passesBarlaser and Mulligan: 11 passesSallinger and Hanley: 12 passesIredale and Hanley: 13 passesBarlaser and McGrath: 14 passesHanley and Barlaser: 21 passesIredale and McGrath: 23 passesSallinger: 15 completed passesIredale: 35 completed passesO'Hora: 18 completed passesHanley: 36 completed passesMegwa: 5 completed passesBarlaser: 43 completed passesMulligan: 18 completed passesMcGrath: 32 completed passesHoilett: 15 completed passesYouan: 11 completed passesKlidje: 5 completed passes115542722201723718SallingerIredaleO'HoraHanleyMegwaBarlaserMulliganMcGrathHoilettYouanKlidjeStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasJohn-Jules12
MayoBrannan10
DeasPolworth9
PolworthJohn-Jules8
MayoOluwayemi6

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanleyBarlaser21
BarlaserMulligan18
IredaleMcGrath15
BarlaserHanley11
SallingerHanley10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5−0.810+1.45−1.65+0.612+4.513+6.29+1.87−1.15−0.53−2.76+1.05+1.56+0.96+0.940.01−3.18+5.512+9.33−0.62−0.61−1.02+0.51−0.94+2.40−0.90−0.60−1.12+1.61+0.28−9.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Hibernian

7+4.019+13.227+13.75−2.24+0.48+2.717+10.310+3.03−3.36+0.215+10.515+10.83+0.25+0.93−1.33−0.96+2.50−2.52−0.45+1.01−1.30−1.92+0.81−0.10−2.52+1.40−0.71+0.41+0.41+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.020.040.020.040.010.040.02−0.010.010.030.01−0.010.030.040.01−0.100.02−0.010.060.070.060.070.07LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.030.020.030.020.010.020.010.020.020.090.040.010.010.040.030.050.010.020.030.150.120.22−0.15−0.150.34LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackKilmarnock1.09 → 1.06Hibernian1.50 → 1.55Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.56 → 1.60Hibernian1.12 → 1.09

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th43%45%+2
Bottom19%24%+5
Hibernian
Top six98%99%+1
Dundee FC
11th29%25%−4
Bottom7%6%−1
Livingston
11th19%22%+3
Bottom73%69%−4

From the forecast before the match (3 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHibernian
Expected goals1.091.58
Win26%48%
Expected Points1.031.71
Clean sheet21%34%

Kilmarnock 26%Draw 26%Hibernian 48%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%9%5%2%7%5%2%4%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHibernian win
Kilmarnock
11th43%38%45%45%
Bottom19%12%17%24%
Hibernian
Top six98%96%98%99%
Dundee FC
11th29%35%29%25%
Bottom7%9%7%6%
Livingston
11th19%14%17%22%
Bottom73%78%74%69%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–230 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.27–2.23
  2. D0–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.75–1.36
  3. L0–120 DecFalkirk (H)xG 1.19–1.46
  4. L1–214 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.02–3.76
  5. L0–36 DecRangers (H)xG 0.66–0.75
  6. D1–13 DecHearts (A)xG 1.80–2.19

Hibernian

  1. W2–030 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.64–0.57
  2. W3–227 DecHearts (H)xG 1.51–1.78
  3. D1–120 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.26–0.82
  4. L0–115 DecRangers (A)xG 0.55–1.84
  5. W3–06 DecFalkirk (H)xG 2.02–0.49
  6. L1–230 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.65–1.33

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHibernian
Position11th5th
Played2020
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠7–⁠118–⁠7–⁠5
Points13 (0.65 per game)31 (1.55 per game)
Expected Points per game0.991.77
Goals18–⁠3533–⁠22
xG per game1.18–⁠1.831.71–⁠1.15
Home: points, xG per game0.60, 1.33–⁠1.511.80, 2.11–⁠0.93
Away: points, xG per game0.70, 1.03–⁠2.161.30, 1.31–⁠1.36
ManagerKris Doolan (3)David Gray (60)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackKilmarnock1.09, 9thHibernian1.50, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.56, 10thHibernian1.12, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.09Hibernian attack: 1.501.501.09HibernianKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.56Hibernian defence: 1.121.561.12

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−30%+20%−3%−3%
Counter-attacks+27%+9%+109%−7%
Set pieces+18%+33%+16%−48%
Penalties−69%+116%+85%−38%
Headers−7%+29%+8%−28%
Left side−50%+28%+27%+11%
Centre+13%+33%+13%−23%
Right side−20%−6%+10%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−50%−28%Centre+13%−23%Right side−20%+11%Open play−30%−3%Counter-attacks+27%−7%Set pieces+18%−48%Headers−7%−28%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+27%−6%Centre+13%+33%Right side+10%+28%Open play−3%+20%Counter-attacks+109%+9%Set pieces+16%+33%Headers+8%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHibernian

1.18xG1.71
1.83xG against1.15
40%Possession48%
10.7Shots13.3
14.7Shots against11.2
3.8Shots on target5.2
1.7Big chances2.5
19.7Touches in the opposition box24.4
316Passes402
70%Pass accuracy80%
4.3Corners5.2
38%Field tilt47%
30.0Final-third entries36.4
9.3Box entries10.9
16.1Passes per defensive action17.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.251.63
Ahead161.012.71
Behind341.181.68

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.461.13
Ahead311.871.22
Behind181.991.05

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.270–3
16–300.180.264–7
31–450.340.247–3
46–600.150.333–8
61–750.130.341–7
76–900.300.403–7

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.083–2
16–300.240.227–5
31–450.280.267–6
46–600.450.128–2
61–750.230.101–3
76–900.300.367–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 10Stryjek 7Beach 3Brown 13Brandon 4Brannan 3Stanger 11Schilte-B… 6Schilte-BrownMayo 17Lyons 2Kiltie 1Deas 17Williams 3Thompson 17Brannan 3Watson 17McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 11Thomson 1Polworth 11Kiltie 7Lowery 7Dackers 10John-Jules 5Tiffoney 4Anderson 12Kiltie 4Daniels 45-3-2 in 4 of 20 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 16Smith 4O'Hora 13Mitchell 1Hanley 15Bushiri 12Iredale 17Obita 2C. Cadden 13Mulligan 4Megwa 3Mulligan 14Barlaser 11McGrath 6Chaiwa 5N. Cadden 12Obita 6McGrath 2McGrath 7Boyle 4Barlaser 4Boyle 11Klidje 6Youan 1Bowie 17Hoilett 3McGrath 23-4-1-2 in 9 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (9), 3-1-4-2 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 August 2025Hibernian2–2KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.94
15 March 2025Kilmarnock1–1HibernianxG 0.64–2.01
29 December 2024Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 2.32–0.25
1 September 2024Kilmarnock1–1HibernianxG 2.54–0.44
27 January 2024Kilmarnock2–2HibernianxG 1.69–1.58
11 November 2023Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 0.41–0.46

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hibernian won 7, and 5 were drawn. Goals 10–18 and xG 0.91–1.39 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson141,189310.370.05
Dackers111,032100.300.11
John-Jules5532200.310.03
Tiffoney5501110.210.10

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Klidje6647310.730.04
Boyle151,200400.480.10
Campbell2457130.310.24
Bowie171,427830.340.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.