Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 3–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 4 April 2026, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 32 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 18,927

Hibernian Elding 1', Passlack 12', Suto 90+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianKilmarnock
Goals30
xG2.300.60
Expected Points2.690.19

Hibernian 86%Draw 11%Kilmarnock 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 24%. Final score 3–0, 18%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%6%1%16%5%12%3%3%2%24%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTNewell on for Barlaser and Suto on for Scarlett, 64'Andrews on for Chaiwa, 73'Boyle on for McGrath and Campbell on for Elding, 88'Watkins on for Polworth and Watson on for Lyons, 62'Thompson on for Brandon, 71'Anderson on for Tshibola and Thomson on for Curtis, 81'Elding 1'Passlack 12'Suto 90+3'Hibernian 2.30Kilmarnock 0.6001230153045607590HTNewell on for Barlaser and Suto on for Scarlett, 64'Andrews on for Chaiwa, 73'Boyle on for McGrath and Campbell on for Elding, 88'Watkins on for Polworth and Watson on for Lyons, 62'Thompson on for Brandon, 71'Anderson on for Tshibola and Thomson on for Curtis, 81'Elding 1'Passlack 12'Suto 90+3'2.300.60HibernianKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

2.30 +0.67xG0.60 −0.61
2.46 +0.98xG on target0.09 −1.11
5 −8Shots11 0
3 −1.9Shots on target2 −1.8
3 +0.7Big chances1 −0.8
18 −7Touches in the opposition box19 −1
52% +3Possession48% +7
472 +57Passes413 +82
81% +1Pass accuracy84% +12
50% +2Field tilt50% +10
28 −11Final-third entries57 +25
12 +0.2Box entries10 +0.2
22.6 +6Passes per defensive action15.2 0
3 −2.4Corners9 +4.8
8 −4Tackles11 −5
7 −1.5Interceptions4 −4.4
34 +5Clearances18 −17
2 −0.7Saves0 −3.7
9 −2Fouls15 +2
2 +0.3Offsides6 +4.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Scarlett 20', 0.16 xGMcGrath 20', 0.04 xGPasslack 12', 0.97 xG, goalElding 1', 0.70 xG, goalSuto 90+3', 0.43 xG, goal42%0.97 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.97 xG, 1 goal51%1.17 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 1.17 xG, 2 goals7%0.16 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Curtis 78', 0.16 xGHugill 68', 0.08 xGSchjønning-Larsen 86', 0.07 xGHugill 58', 0.06 xGKiltie 37', 0.05 xGKiltie 65', 0.05 xGCurtis 69', 0.04 xGKiltie 43', 0.03 xGThomson 85', 0.03 xGLyons 39', 0.02 xGHugill 90', 0.02 xG27%0.16 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.16 xG, 0 goals17%0.10 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals52%0.31 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

1.71 3 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.58 10 shots, 0 goals
0.59 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · Hibernian 0.70, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Hibernian ahead
93 min (99%) · Hibernian 1.60, Kilmarnock 0.60 xG

Line-ups

1541525142221174744SallingerO'HoraHanleyIredalePasslackChaiwaBarlaserObitaMcGrathEldingScarlettGoalYellow cardGoal73'64'88'88'64'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray1321462136318115244RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaPolworthLyonsKiltieCurtisHugillYellow cardYellow cardYellow card71'81'62'62'81'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Neil McCann

Hibernian substitutes

  • 64' Newell for Barlaser
  • 64' Suto for Scarlett · goal 90+3'
  • 73' Andrews for Chaiwa
  • 88' Campbell for Elding
  • 88' Boyle for McGrath · 1 assist

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 62' Watson for Lyons
  • 62' Watkins for Polworth
  • 71' Thompson for Brandon
  • 81' Thomson for Curtis
  • 81' Anderson for Tshibola

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0441
O'HoraCB900.000.0100.0336
HanleyCB900.000.0000.02312
IredaleCB900.000.0100.11118
PasslackRWB90110.970.3520.2265
ChaiwaCM730.000.020−0.0126
Barlaser CM640.000.0000.0130
ObitaLWB9010.000.7310.3993
McGrathAM880.040.0510.0323
EldingST8810.700.1200.0644
ScarlettST640.160.0500.1031
NewellMF260.000.0100.0205
SutoFW2610.430.0300.0110
AndrewsMF170.000.000−0.0101
CampbellMF20.000.0000.0110
BoyleFW210.000.2210.1710

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0111
BrandonRB710.000.0220.0562
Stanger CB900.000.0200.04310
DeasCB900.000.0100.14115
Schjønning-LarsenLB900.070.0310.0685
Tshibola DM810.000.0210.0325
PolworthDM620.000.0510.1232
LyonsRW620.020.0000.0130
KiltieAM900.130.1100.0730
Curtis LW810.200.0810.1494
HugillST900.150.0610.1820
WatsonMF280.000.0200.0530
WatkinsFW280.000.0000.0620
ThompsonDF190.000.0110.0340
ThomsonMF90.030.0100.0310
AndersonFW90.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Sallinger and Passlack: 5 passesIredale and Barlaser: 5 passesIredale and McGrath: 5 passesO'Hora and Elding: 5 passesBarlaser and Obita: 5 passesChaiwa and Scarlett: 5 passesChaiwa and Elding: 5 passesSallinger and Elding: 6 passesHanley and Barlaser: 6 passesPasslack and Chaiwa: 6 passesBarlaser and Chaiwa: 6 passesPasslack and Elding: 7 passesBarlaser and McGrath: 10 passesObita and McGrath: 10 passesSallinger and Iredale: 12 passesSallinger and O'Hora: 13 passesO'Hora and Chaiwa: 13 passesIredale and Obita: 14 passesO'Hora and Hanley: 15 passesO'Hora and Barlaser: 15 passesIredale and Hanley: 18 passesO'Hora and Passlack: 24 passesSallinger and Hanley: 25 passesSallinger: 35 completed passesIredale: 33 completed passesO'Hora: 50 completed passesHanley: 42 completed passesPasslack: 26 completed passesBarlaser: 26 completed passesChaiwa: 21 completed passesObita: 19 completed passesMcGrath: 21 completed passesScarlett: 7 completed passesElding: 14 completed passes1155425221421174447SallingerIredaleO'HoraHanleyPasslackBarlaserChaiwaObitaMcGrathScarlettEldingStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Kilmarnock

Roos and Brandon: 5 passesBrandon and Tshibola: 5 passesTshibola and Lyons: 5 passesKiltie and Curtis: 5 passesStanger and Deas: 6 passesTshibola and Curtis: 6 passesPolworth and Lyons: 6 passesPolworth and Curtis: 6 passesBrandon and Stanger: 7 passesDeas and Curtis: 7 passesDeas and Tshibola: 8 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Polworth: 9 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Curtis: 9 passesBrandon and Polworth: 10 passesPolworth and Kiltie: 10 passesBrandon and Lyons: 11 passesRoos and Deas: 12 passesDeas and Polworth: 13 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Tshibola: 14 passesTshibola and Polworth: 18 passesDeas and Schjønning-Larsen: 24 passesRoos: 15 completed passesBrandon: 29 completed passesStanger: 15 completed passesDeas: 39 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 36 completed passesTshibola: 36 completed passesPolworth: 38 completed passesLyons: 15 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passesCurtis: 12 completed passesHugill: 4 completed passes1321462136318115244RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaPolworthLyonsKiltieCurtisHugillStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanleySallinger18
O'HoraPasslack17
IredaleObita16
PasslackO'Hora16
O'HoraHanley14

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
TshibolaSchjønning-Larsen12
Schjønning-LarsenDeas12
DeasSchjønning-Larsen12
RoosDeas12
TshibolaPolworth11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

2−1.54−1.817+2.614+6.61−3.08+2.518+10.86−1.48+1.71−4.513+8.08+3.14+1.03−1.38+3.60−3.74+0.51−1.51−1.52−1.91−1.30−1.80−1.40−1.01−1.01+0.40−0.70−0.60−0.50−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Kilmarnock

6+1.04−5.03−4.21−3.23−4.18+0.87+0.35−2.90−6.13−2.36+1.03−0.46+0.73−1.83−0.55+1.03+0.46+2.87+3.34+1.53+1.12+0.52+0.220.010.01+0.22+1.11+0.70−0.89−8.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.020.030.010.030.030.010.040.060.06−0.010.010.040.050.120.060.140.150.160.17LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.030.010.020.010.020.060.030.120.040.030.040.020.030.100.030.090.10−0.020.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackHibernian1.48 → 1.51Kilmarnock1.12 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.11 → 1.08Kilmarnock1.61 → 1.65

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th52%58%+6
Bottom1%1%0
St. Mirren
11th31%28%−3
Aberdeen
11th9%8%−1

From the forecast before the match (4 April 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianKilmarnock
Expected goals2.130.82
Win67%13%
Expected Points2.210.59
Clean sheet44%12%

Hibernian 67%Draw 20%Kilmarnock 13%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%7%3%4%4%2%2%2%1%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 April 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawKilmarnock win
Kilmarnock
11th52%58%47%29%
Bottom1%1%<1%<1%
St. Mirren
11th31%28%34%45%
Aberdeen
11th9%8%10%15%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D0–021 MarMotherwell (A)xG 0.60–0.44
  2. D0–014 MarLivingston (H)xG 2.18–0.14
  3. D3–328 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.74–0.92
  4. W2–122 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.80–1.94
  5. W2–014 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.19–0.30
  6. L0–110 FebHearts (A)xG 0.38–0.66

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–021 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.71–0.79
  2. W1–014 MarHearts (H)xG 1.27–1.06
  3. L1–528 FebFalkirk (A)xG 0.39–3.14
  4. D1–121 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.50–2.05
  5. L2–315 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.86–2.98
  6. W4–311 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.76–1.96

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianKilmarnock
Position5th11th
Played3131
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠12–⁠76–⁠9–⁠16
Points48 (1.55 per game)27 (0.87 per game)
Expected Points per game1.740.99
Goals48–⁠3535–⁠60
xG per game1.63–⁠1.121.21–⁠1.92
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 2.02–⁠0.871.12, 1.43–⁠1.60
Away: points, xG per game1.31, 1.26–⁠1.350.60, 0.98–⁠2.26
ManagerDavid Gray (71)Neil McCann (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackHibernian1.48, 3rdKilmarnock1.12, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.11, 4thKilmarnock1.61, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian attack: 1.48Kilmarnock attack: 1.121.481.12KilmarnockHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian defence: 1.11Kilmarnock defence: 1.611.611.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−2%−6%−16%+30%
Counter-attacks+84%−29%+25%+5%
Set pieces+13%−36%−4%+35%
Penalties+56%−56%−78%+122%
Headers+28%−29%−8%+8%
Left side+16%+4%−44%+30%
Centre+15%−21%+11%+35%
Right sideaverage−30%−14%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+16%+14%Centre+15%+35%Right sideaverage+30%Open play−2%+30%Counter-attacks+84%+5%Set pieces+13%+35%Headers+28%+8%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−44%−30%Centre+11%−21%Right side−14%+4%Open play−16%−6%Counter-attacks+25%−29%Set pieces−4%−36%Headers−8%−29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.63xG1.21
1.12xG against1.92
49%Possession41%
13.2Shots11.1
11.3Shots against15.3
4.9Shots on target3.8
2.3Big chances1.8
25.1Touches in the opposition box20.2
415Passes331
80%Pass accuracy72%
5.4Corners4.2
48%Field tilt40%
38.8Final-third entries32.2
11.8Box entries9.8
16.6Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.441.00
Ahead261.761.25
Behind151.991.30

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.281.73
Ahead191.202.34
Behind341.151.90

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.085–3
16–300.220.208–6
31–450.240.269–8
46–600.360.139–4
61–750.240.124–5
76–900.330.3213–9

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.262–7
16–300.190.288–9
31–450.280.3110–6
46–600.120.345–14
61–750.180.332–11
76–900.330.418–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 27Smith 4O'Hora 20Garananga 2Mitchell 1Bushiri 21Hanley 19Iredale 27Obita 3Cadden 13Passlack 7Megwa 7Mulligan 16Andrews 1Newell 1Barlaser 22Chaiwa 12McGrath 6N. Cadden 18Obita 9McGrath 4McGrath 13Boyle 6Barlaser 4Boyle 15Klidje 7Elding 4Bowie 19Youan 5Scarlett 43-4-1-2 in 18 of 31 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (18), 3-4-3 (4), 3-1-4-2 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 9Stryjek 7Brown 13Schjønnin… 7Schjønning-LarsenBrandon 6Schilte… 15Schilte-BrownStanger 13Lyons 2Mayo 19Kiltie 8Watson 3Deas 28Williams 3Thomps… 25ThompsonBrannan 3Schjønnin… 2Schjønning-LarsenWatson 23Curtis 3McKenzie 3Lyons 20Tshibola 3Thomson 2Polworth 18Kiltie 9Lowery 8Anderson 18Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 12Hugill 5Kiltie 45-3-2 in 6 of 31 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (5), 4-4-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 January 2026Kilmarnock1–3HibernianxG 0.44–2.78
10 August 2025Hibernian2–2KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.94
15 March 2025Kilmarnock1–1HibernianxG 0.64–2.01
29 December 2024Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 2.32–0.25
1 September 2024Kilmarnock1–1HibernianxG 2.54–0.44
27 January 2024Kilmarnock2–2HibernianxG 1.69–1.58

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 8, Kilmarnock won 1, and 5 were drawn. Goals 21–11 and xG 1.49–0.88 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan6661410.630.18
Klidje7735310.660.04
Campbell2506130.390.22
Boyle211,699510.420.10

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Curtis6480110.290.23
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Hugill5472220.360.12
Dackers121,144200.330.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.