Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Livingston 1–4 Kilmarnock

Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:00 · Home of the Set Fare Arena · Round 38 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 3,038

Livingston May 19'

Kilmarnock Hugill 24', 58', Clescenco 34', Curtis 53'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonKilmarnock
Goals14
xG1.332.77
Expected Points0.522.31

Livingston 11%Draw 18%Kilmarnock 71%

Most likely score 1–3, 11%. Final score 1–4, 7%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+3%6%6%4%1%1%6%7%3%4%8%5%2%1%3%3%2%11%11%8%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDenholm on for Danso, Nouble on for Muirhead, and Zimmerman on for McKay, 56'Culbert on for Smith, 66'Fati on for Tait, 85'Lyons on for Schjønning-Larsen, 46'Thomson on for Tshibola and Schilte-Brown on for Stanger, 62'Watson on for Clescenco, 66'Bowie on for Thompson, 84'May 19'Hugill 24'Clescenco 34'Curtis 53'Hugill 58'Kilmarnock 2.77Livingston 1.3301230153045607590HTDenholm on for Danso, Nouble on for Muirhead, and Zimmerman on for McKay, 56'Culbert on for Smith, 66'Fati on for Tait, 85'Lyons on for Schjønning-Larsen, 46'Thomson on for Tshibola and Schilte-Brown on for Stanger, 62'Watson on for Clescenco, 66'Bowie on for Thompson, 84'May 19'Hugill 24'Clescenco 34'Curtis 53'Hugill 58'2.771.33LivingstonKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.33 +0.29xG2.77 +1.47
1.70 +0.65xG on target2.19 +0.91
9 −0.8Shots14 +2.7
4 +0.7Shots on target4 +0.1
3 +1.6Big chances4 +1.9
26 +6Touches in the opposition box35 +15
52% +7Possession48% +6
542 +176Passes516 +173
89% +16Pass accuracy91% +18
6 +1.4Corners1 −3.4
11 −6Tackles18 +3
6 −2.9Interceptions10 +1.9
11 −23Clearances24 −10
0 −3.1Saves3 −0.5
10 −3Fouls10 −3
1 −0.5Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Livingston

May 86', 0.40 xGZimmerman 90', 0.36 xGMuirhead 6', 0.16 xGKabongolo 19', 0.09 xGWilson 19', 0.05 xGCulbert 87', 0.05 xGMay 47', 0.04 xGCulbert 75', 0.02 xGMay 19', 0.16 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%1.05 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.05 xG, 0 goals16%0.21 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Watson 90+1', 0.44 xGCurtis 48', 0.18 xGSchjønning-Larsen 14', 0.16 xGHugill 60', 0.13 xGCurtis 26', 0.08 xGTshibola 32', 0.04 xGThomson 64', 0.04 xGKiltie 78', 0.04 xGCurtis 89', 0.03 xGLyons 89', 0.02 xGHugill 58', 0.60 xG, goalHugill 24', 0.58 xG, goalClescenco 34', 0.22 xG, goalCurtis 53', 0.21 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals83%2.31 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 2.31 xG, 4 goals6%0.16 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.16 xG, 0 goals9%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals2%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.12 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play2.50 12 shots, 3 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.23 1 shot, 1 goal
0.20 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
29 min (32%) · Livingston 0.46, Kilmarnock 0.51 xG
Livingston ahead
5 min (5%) · Livingston 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.58 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
57 min (63%) · Livingston 0.87, Kilmarnock 1.69 xG

Line-ups

28223272620251517109PriorKerrKabongoloWilsonMontañoDansoTaitSmithMayMcKayMuirheadYellow cardGoal56'85'66'56'56'Livingston 4-2-3-1Scott Arfield1211463523618112044StryjekSchjønning-LarsenStangerDeasThompsonCurtisTshibolaLoweryKiltieClescencoHugillYellow cardGoalGoalGoalGoal46'62'84'62'66'Kilmarnock 4-3-2-1Neil McCann

Livingston substitutes

  • 56' Denholm for Danso
  • 56' Nouble for Muirhead
  • 56' Zimmerman for McKay
  • 66' Culbert for Smith
  • 85' Fati for Tait

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Lyons for Schjønning-Larsen · yellow card 70'
  • 62' Schilte-Brown for Stanger
  • 62' Thomson for Tshibola
  • 66' Watson for Clescenco
  • 84' Bowie for Thompson

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
PriorGK900.000.0000
KerrRB900.000.0518
KabongoloCB900.090.0103
WilsonCB900.050.0200
MontañoLB900.000.2301
Danso DM560.000.0103
TaitDM850.000.0104
SmithRW660.000.0202
MayAM9010.590.4531
McKayLW5610.000.0812
MuirheadST560.160.0201
DenholmMF340.000.0101
NoubleFW340.000.1520
ZimmermanFW340.360.0003
CulbertFW240.080.0001
FatiDF50.000.0002

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
StryjekGK900.000.0010
Schjønning-LarsenRB460.160.0106
StangerCB620.000.0004
DeasCB9010.000.0215
Thompson LB8420.000.4527
CurtisCM9010.490.0414
TshibolaCM620.040.0412
LoweryCM900.000.2224
KiltieAM9010.040.2825
ClescencoAM6610.220.0306
HugillST9021.310.3911
Lyons MF440.020.0805
Schilte-BrownDF280.000.0002
ThomsonMF280.040.0811
WatsonMF240.440.0102
BowieDF60.000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackLivingston0.98 → 0.98Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.29Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.77 → 1.82Kilmarnock1.51 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonKilmarnock
Expected goals1.301.43
Win33%40%
Expected Points1.271.46
Clean sheet24%27%

Livingston 33%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 56%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+7%9%7%3%1%8%9%4%1%5%8%6%3%1%2%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Livingston

  1. D0–012 MayDundee United (A)xG 0.92–1.54
  2. L0–39 MayDundee FC (A)xG 1.58–2.10
  3. D2–21 MayAberdeen (H)xG 1.56–0.86
  4. W2–025 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.72–1.10
  5. L2–311 AprDundee United (A)xG 1.81–1.82
  6. D2–25 AprHearts (H)xG 2.00–1.87

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–112 MayDundee FC (H)xG 3.48–0.43
  2. W3–09 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.49–1.21
  3. W3–02 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.40–2.11
  4. L0–125 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.71–0.50
  5. D2–211 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–1.32
  6. L0–34 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.60–2.30

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonKilmarnock
Position12th10th
Played3737
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠15–⁠209–⁠10–⁠18
Points21 (0.57 per game)37 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.871.08
Goals39–⁠7146–⁠67
xG per game1.04–⁠1.921.30–⁠1.82
Home: points, xG per game0.65, 1.10–⁠1.791.32, 1.60–⁠1.55
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.98–⁠2.040.67, 0.97–⁠2.11
ManagerScott Arfield (1)Neil McCann (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackLivingston0.98, 12thKilmarnock1.24, 7thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.77, 12thKilmarnock1.51, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayLivingston attack: 0.98Kilmarnock attack: 1.241.240.98KilmarnockLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayLivingston defence: 1.77Kilmarnock defence: 1.511.771.51

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−38%+35%−10%+26%
Counter-attacks−31%+27%+23%−3%
Set pieces−18%+38%−2%+24%
Penalties+27%+45%−64%+100%
Headers−32%+34%+3%+5%
Left side−43%+31%−26%+21%
Centre−27%+33%+13%+30%
Right side−32%+43%−17%+8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−43%+8%Centre−27%+30%Right side−32%+21%Open play−38%+26%Counter-attacks−31%−3%Set pieces−18%+24%Headers−32%+5%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−26%+43%Centre+13%+33%Right side−17%+31%Open play−10%+35%Counter-attacks+23%+27%Set pieces−2%+38%Headers+3%+34%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.04xG1.30
1.92xG against1.82
45%Possession42%
9.8Shots11.3
15.2Shots against14.5
3.3Shots on target3.9
1.4Big chances2.1
19.7Touches in the opposition box20.3
366Passes343
73%Pass accuracy72%
4.6Corners4.4
37%Field tilt41%
30.4Final-third entries33.2
8.5Box entries9.7
14.0Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level450.891.94
Ahead100.932.82
Behind361.251.66

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.501.72
Ahead221.292.07
Behind331.081.77

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.375–13
16–300.140.256–11
31–450.250.415–9
46–600.190.308–8
61–750.170.225–9
76–900.200.3710–21

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.284–10
16–300.220.259–10
31–450.280.2911–6
46–600.130.317–14
61–750.200.305–11
76–900.350.4010–16

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPrior 37Finlayson 15Brenet 9Kabongolo 7McGowan 20Finlayson 13Sylla 2Wilson 29Kabongolo 4Blaney 3Montaño 11Montgomery 8Fati 5Sylla 17Pittman 14Danso 4Tait 21Susoho 11May 1Smith 14Finlayson 4Kerr 4Pittman 14Tait 6Smith 4May 13Montaño 6McLennan 4Muirhead 11Bokila 8Yengi 74-2-3-1 in 12 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (12), 4-3-3 (11), 3-5-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTOluwayemi 12Stryjek 11Roos 11Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenBrandon 7Brown 7Stanger 14Mayo 13Schilte-Brown 10Deas 34Williams 3Thompson 19Schjønning-L… 6Schjønning-LarsenLyons 4Lyons 7Watson 7Brown 6Watson 15Lyons 11Tshibola 8Polworth 16Lowery 12Kiltie 7Kiltie 9Thompson 8Mayo 4Anderson 21Daniels 4Tiffoney 3Dackers 11Hugill 10John-Jules 104-4-2 in 6 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 March 2026Kilmarnock2–0LivingstonxG 1.71–0.79
10 January 2026Livingston1–1KilmarnockxG 1.30–1.69
2 August 2025Kilmarnock2–2LivingstonxG 0.91–1.83
7 February 2024Kilmarnock1–0LivingstonxG 0.75–0.72
16 December 2023Livingston0–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
21 October 2023Kilmarnock3–1LivingstonxG 1.21–1.13

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 5, Kilmarnock won 5, and 3 were drawn. Goals 16–18 and xG 1.12–1.17 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead161,491520.470.18
Nouble7522120.400.19
Yengi111,054200.300.08
McLennan8766300.260.08

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Curtis12989410.390.22
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Hugill111,001620.400.08
Dackers121,144200.330.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.