Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 2–2 Kilmarnock

Sunday 10 August 2025, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 2 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 17,525

Hibernian Bushiri 20', Youan 27'

Kilmarnock Polworth 45', Brannan 48'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Goals	2	2
xG	1.77	0.94
Expected Points	1.99	0.76

Hibernian 58%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 17%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 2–2, 6%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

1.77 +0.35xG0.94 +0.03

1.81 −0.48xG on target0.40 −1.23

12 −3.0Shots10 +2.0

6 +1.0Shots on target2 0.0

2 −1.0Big chances2 0.0

27 +4Touches in the opposition box17 +3

60% −8Possession40% +4

538 −125Passes364 +100

86% −2Pass accuracy79% +13

79% −1Field tilt21% −14

45 −10Final-third entries21 −8

15 +5.0Box entries7 −1.0

13.0 −3Passes per defensive action16.9 −2

4 −7.0Corners7 +4.0

10 +3.0Tackles29 +10.0

4 −5.0Interceptions10 +6.0

21 −1Clearances33 −19

0 0.0Saves4 0.0

10 +2.0Fouls15 +4.0

0 −2.0Offsides3 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

0.65 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.72 7 shots, 1 goal

0.58 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.54 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.22 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–02–02–2

Level: 63 min (69%) · Hibernian 1.04, Kilmarnock 0.26 xG
Hibernian ahead: 28 min (31%) · Hibernian 0.73, Kilmarnock 0.68 xG

Line-ups

Hibernian substitutes

58' Iredale for Hanley
59' Cadden for Hoilett
59' Boyle for Youan
82' Campbell for Levitt
90+1' Klidje for Bowie

Kilmarnock substitutes

63' Kiltie for McKenzie
68' Thompson for Brandon
82' Anderson for Daniels

Players

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Smith	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	2
O'Hora	CB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.05	7	6
Bushiri	CB	90	1		0.54	0.00	0	0.02	0	7
Hanley	CB	58			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	1	1
Mulligan	RWB	90			0.05	0.09	0	0.14	5	6
McGrath	CM	90		1	0.05	0.59	3	0.06	4	2
Levitt	CM	82			0.00	0.04	2	0.08	5	3
Obita	LWB	90			0.00	0.16	1	0.20	12	2
Youan	AM	59	1		0.53	0.05	1	0.04	4	0
Hoilett	AM	59		1	0.15	0.33	2	0.16	6	4
Bowie	ST	90			0.46	0.02	0	0.00	2	2
Iredale	DF	32			0.00	0.01	0	0.06	6	2
Cadden	MF	31			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1
Boyle	FW	31			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
Campbell	MF	8			0.00	0.01	0	0.01	1	1
Klidje	FW	0			0.00	0.00	0	–	–	0

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Stryjek	GK	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	0
Schilte-Brown	CB	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.04	5	12
Mayo	CB	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.03	2	13
Deas	CB	90		0.00	0.01	1	0.04	6	11
Brandon	RWB	68		0.11	0.00	0	0.05	5	10
Watson	CM	90		0.00	0.01	0	0.03	3	2
Polworth	CM	90	1	0.13	0.48	2	0.22	10	6
McKenzie	CM	63		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	1
Brannan	LWB	90	1	0.02	0.36	2	0.25	4	10
Daniels	ST	82		0.06	0.00	1	0.02	1	2
Dackers	ST	90		0.54	0.01	1	0.04	2	1
Kiltie	MF	27		0.07	0.00	0	0.00	0	4
Thompson	MF	22		0.00	0.00	0	0.02	0	1
Anderson	FW	8		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Bushiri	O'Hora	41
O'Hora	Bushiri	20
Hanley	Obita	19
Hanley	Bushiri	18
Bushiri	Hanley	14

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Schilte-Brown	Mayo	17
Mayo	Deas	17
Polworth	Dackers	12
Mayo	Schilte-Brown	11
Schilte-Brown	Brandon	11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

Against its average of 1 match

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 1 match

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Hibernian
Title	1%	<1%	−1
Top six	91%	89%	−2
11th	<1%	<1%	0
Kilmarnock
Top six	39%	41%	+2
11th	8%	7%	−1
Bottom	3%	3%	0

From the forecast before the match (10 August 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.84	0.96
Win	58%	19%
Expected Points	1.96	0.80
Clean sheet	38%	16%

Hibernian 58%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 19%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 52%.

From the forecast as it stood on 10 August 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Hibernian win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
Hibernian
Title	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
Top six	91%	93%	89%	85%
11th	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Kilmarnock
Top six	39%	34%	41%	50%
11th	8%	9%	7%	4%
Bottom	3%	4%	3%	1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Hibernian	Kilmarnock
Position	4th	8th
Played	1	1
Won, drawn, lost	1–⁠0–⁠0	0–⁠1–⁠0
Points	3 (3.00 per game)	1 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game	2.49	0.64
Goals	2–⁠1	2–⁠2
xG per game	1.42–⁠0.13	0.91–⁠1.83
Home: points, xG per game	–⁠	1.00, 0.91–⁠1.83
Away: points, xG per game	3.00, 1.42–⁠0.13	–⁠
Manager	David Gray (41)	Stuart Kettlewell (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Hibernian		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−8%	−24%	−12%	+8%
Counter-attacks	+11%	−2%	+4%	−34%
Set pieces	+44%	−25%	+3%	+6%
Penalties	+25%	−22%	+25%	+74%
Headers	+22%	−33%	−17%	−13%
Left side	+36%	−29%	+4%	+23%
Centre	+7%	−19%	−22%	−3%
Right side	−5%	−20%	+7%	−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+36%−4%Centre+7%−3%Right side−5%+23%Open play−8%+8%Counter-attacks+11%−34%Set pieces+44%+6%Headers+22%−13%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side+4%−20%Centre−22%−19%Right side+7%−29%Open play−12%−24%Counter-attacks+4%−2%Set pieces+3%−25%Headers−17%−33%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.42xG0.91

0.13xG against1.83

68%Possession36%

15.0Shots8.0

2.0Shots against15.0

5.0Shots on target2.0

3.0Big chances2.0

23.0Touches in the opposition box14.0

663Passes264

88%Pass accuracy66%

11.0Corners3.0

80%Field tilt34%

55.0Final-third entries29.0

10.0Box entries8.0

15.9Passes per defensive action18.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	28	0.16	0.00
Ahead	62	1.99	0.19
Behind	0	–	–

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	42	0.88	0.39
Ahead	48	0.94	3.09
Behind	0	–	–

xG by period

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.00	0.00	0–0
16–30	0.05	0.00	1–0
31–45	0.46	0.12	1–1
46–60	0.13	0.00	0–0
61–75	0.71	0.00	0–0
76–90	0.07	0.01	0–0

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.07	0.02	0–0
16–30	0.12	0.02	0–0
31–45	0.62	0.09	2–0
46–60	0.00	0.10	0–0
61–75	0.00	0.86	0–1
76–90	0.10	0.74	0–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
15 March 2025	Kilmarnock	1–1	Hibernian	xG 0.64–2.01
29 December 2024	Hibernian	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 2.32–0.25
1 September 2024	Kilmarnock	1–1	Hibernian	xG 2.54–0.44
27 January 2024	Kilmarnock	2–2	Hibernian	xG 1.69–1.58
11 November 2023	Hibernian	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.41–0.46
16 September 2023	Kilmarnock	2–2	Hibernian	xG 0.83–0.92

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 7, Kilmarnock won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 16–8 and xG 1.36–0.91 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Bowie	6	728	8	1	0.46	0.05
Boyle	30	2,658	15	6	0.37	0.12
Hoilett	20	1,595	4	4	0.25	0.23
Youan	11	904	2	1	0.35	0.11

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Anderson	15	1,502	11	1	0.64	0.05
Watson	24	2,218	5	1	0.13	0.06
Polworth	17	1,602	2	1	0.07	0.09
Lyons	32	2,711	1	1	0.08	0.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.