Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 4–0 Aberdeen

Thursday 26 December 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 19 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 6,846

Kilmarnock Vassell 18', Watson 59', Cameron 87', Anderson 90+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockAberdeen
Goals40
xG4.020.50
Expected Points2.940.04

Kilmarnock 97%Draw 2%Aberdeen 1%

Most likely score 4–0, 16%. Final score 4–0, 16%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%1%7%4%7%2%9%2%7%1%9%5%1%13%16%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTCameron on for Wales, Magennis on for Polworth, and Anderson on for Vassell, 84'Donnelly on for Armstrong, 85'Bainbridge on for Murray, 89'Palaversa on for Nilsen, 60'Morris on for Ambrose and Clarkson on for Keskinen, 61'Nisbet on for Shinnie, 68'Vassell 18'Watson 59'Cameron 87'Anderson 90+3'Kilmarnock 4.02Aberdeen 0.5002460153045607590HTCameron on for Wales, Magennis on for Polworth, and Anderson on for Vassell, 84'Donnelly on for Armstrong, 85'Bainbridge on for Murray, 89'Palaversa on for Nilsen, 60'Morris on for Ambrose and Clarkson on for Keskinen, 61'Nisbet on for Shinnie, 68'Vassell 18'Watson 59'Cameron 87'Anderson 90+3'4.020.50KilmarnockAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockAberdeen

4.02 +2.75xG0.50 −0.84
3.25 +2.18xG on target0.25 −1.21
24 +12Shots7 −5
8 +4.6Shots on target3 −1.1
6 +4.2Big chances0 −2.1
38 +18Touches in the opposition box19 −6
47% +4Possession53% +1
327 +19Passes391 −31
71% +5Pass accuracy76% −1
72% +31Field tilt28% −24
35 +4Final-third entries26 −10
22 +12.9Box entries11 −2.4
13.0 −3Passes per defensive action11.3 −2
7 +1.9Corners3 −2.5
8 −7Tackles21 +3
8 −0.8Interceptions4 −4.1
17 −18Clearances55 +25
3 −0.2Saves3 +0.4
11 +1Fouls13 +2
0 −1.1Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Wales 6', 0.38 xGMurray 62', 0.22 xGWatson 10', 0.14 xGWright 14', 0.12 xGVassell 75', 0.12 xGCameron 90+3', 0.09 xGVassell 54', 0.08 xGMurray 56', 0.08 xGVassell 81', 0.08 xGWales 58', 0.06 xGMurray 9', 0.04 xGArmstrong 9', 0.04 xGVassell 16', 0.03 xGArmstrong 28', 0.03 xGArmstrong 41', 0.03 xGArmstrong 81', 0.03 xGMurray 56', 0.02 xGArmstrong 56', 0.02 xGArmstrong 82', 0.02 xGMurray 35', 0.01 xGVassell 18', 0.79 xG, goalWatson 59', 0.58 xG, goalAnderson 90+3', 0.58 xG, goalCameron 87', 0.44 xG, goal60%2.42 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 2.42 xG, 3 goals32%1.30 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 1.30 xG, 1 goal5%0.20 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Devlin 55', 0.14 xGMorris 64', 0.09 xGDevlin 69', 0.07 xGDevlin 21', 0.06 xGDuk 90', 0.06 xGDevlin 59', 0.05 xGClarkson 79', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals94%0.47 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockAberdeen

2.10 16 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.32 4 shots, 0 goals
1.92 8 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.18 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (19%) · Kilmarnock 1.55, Aberdeen 0.00 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
76 min (81%) · Kilmarnock 2.47, Aberdeen 0.50 xG

Line-ups

20854311123115249McCrorieLyonsMayoWrightNdabaArmstrongWatsonPolworthMurrayWalesVassellGoalGoal85'84'89'84'84'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes1233273641178132MitovDevlinRubezicMacDonaldMacKenzieNilsenShinnieDukMcGrathKeskinenAmbroseYellow cardYellow cardYellow card60'68'61'61'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 84' Magennis for Polworth
  • 84' Anderson for Vassell · goal 90+3'
  • 84' Cameron for Wales · goal 87', 1 assist
  • 85' Donnelly for Armstrong
  • 89' Bainbridge for Murray

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 60' Palaversa for Nilsen · yellow card 62'
  • 61' Clarkson for Keskinen
  • 61' Morris for Ambrose
  • 68' Nisbet for Shinnie

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0100.0530
LyonsRB900.000.0230.0153
MayoCB900.000.0000.0118
WrightCB900.120.1110.0324
NdabaLB900.000.0300.0757
ArmstrongRM8510.150.4530.28124
WatsonCM9010.720.0530.0412
PolworthCM840.000.0310.0332
MurrayLM8920.381.1740.76130
WalesST840.440.1720.0121
VassellST8411.100.4110.0841
MagennisMF60.000.0000.0000
AndersonFW610.580.0000.0000
CameronFW6110.520.0010.1001
DonnellyMF50.000.1300.1710
BainbridgeDF10.000.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0202
DevlinRB900.320.0100.0936
Rubezic CB900.000.1310.28617
MacDonaldCB900.000.0100.09613
MacKenzieLB900.000.0000.01215
Nilsen DM600.000.0100.0347
ShinnieDM680.000.0510.1244
DukRW900.060.5910.0467
McGrath AM900.000.132−0.0129
KeskinenLW610.000.0300.2051
AmbroseST610.000.000−0.0105
Palaversa MF300.000.010−0.0115
ClarksonMF290.030.0100.0440
MorrisFW290.090.0110.0110
NisbetFW220.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McCrorie and Ndaba: 4 passesLyons and Vassell: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesWright and Polworth: 5 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 5 passesWatson and Murray: 5 passesPolworth and Wales: 5 passesMurray and Vassell: 6 passesWales and Vassell: 6 passesMcCrorie and Lyons: 7 passesNdaba and Polworth: 7 passesArmstrong and Wales: 7 passesLyons and Watson: 8 passesArmstrong and Murray: 9 passesMayo and Ndaba: 10 passesMayo and Polworth: 10 passesPolworth and Murray: 10 passesMurray and Wales: 10 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 11 passesWright and Mayo: 13 passesLyons and Wright: 14 passesNdaba and Murray: 18 passesLyons and Armstrong: 23 passesMcCrorie: 11 completed passesLyons: 39 completed passesWright: 19 completed passesMayo: 26 completed passesNdaba: 29 completed passesArmstrong: 28 completed passesWatson: 17 completed passesPolworth: 31 completed passesMurray: 25 completed passesWales: 13 completed passesVassell: 12 completed passes20845311123115249McCrorieLyonsWrightMayoNdabaArmstrongWatsonPolworthMurrayWalesVassellStarters until 84' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Mitov and MacKenzie: 4 passesRubezic and Duk: 4 passesMacDonald and Nilsen: 4 passesMacDonald and Keskinen: 4 passesMacKenzie and Shinnie: 4 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 4 passesNilsen and Keskinen: 4 passesNilsen and Ambrose: 4 passesShinnie and McGrath: 4 passesDevlin and Nilsen: 5 passesRubezic and MacDonald: 5 passesRubezic and Shinnie: 5 passesMacDonald and McGrath: 5 passesDevlin and Duk: 6 passesMacDonald and MacKenzie: 7 passesMacDonald and Shinnie: 7 passesMitov and MacDonald: 8 passesMitov and Shinnie: 9 passesDevlin and Rubezic: 10 passesNilsen and Shinnie: 10 passesMitov and Rubezic: 14 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 16 passesMitov: 22 completed passesDevlin: 24 completed passesRubezic: 24 completed passesMacDonald: 25 completed passesMacKenzie: 17 completed passesNilsen: 18 completed passesShinnie: 29 completed passesDuk: 7 completed passesMcGrath: 13 completed passesKeskinen: 7 completed passesAmbrose: 6 completed passes1233273641178132MitovDevlinRubezicMacDonaldMacKenzieNilsenShinnieDukMcGrathKeskinenAmbroseStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsArmstrong14
NdabaMurray13
ArmstrongLyons9
WrightLyons8
PolworthArmstrong7

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
RubezicMitov12
DevlinRubezic9
MitovMacDonald9
ShinnieDevlin9
MacKenzieMacDonald8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

1−3.00−8.78+0.21−5.25+0.17−0.46−0.82−4.13−3.77+1.92−1.62−1.12−2.87+2.45+1.73−0.75+2.71−2.79+4.92+0.23+1.60−0.92+1.14+1.70−0.70−0.62+1.40−0.42+1.36−11.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Aberdeen

6+1.211+4.634+16.511+2.610+4.313+6.75−0.27+2.56−1.57+0.12−4.03−0.53−0.65−1.26+0.13−1.41−1.82−0.93−0.54−0.30−2.20−1.40−1.51−0.94+1.60−0.70−0.31+0.60−0.50−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.040.010.010.020.120.030.020.030.150.030.220.030.050.080.100.100.020.130.40LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.030.010.010.030.010.010.020.050.040.020.030.010.020.040.040.070.140.170.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.18 → 1.25Aberdeen1.27 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.41 → 1.36Aberdeen1.36 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six26%35%+9
11th8%5%−3
Bottom4%2%−2
Aberdeen
Top six>99%99%−1
Motherwell
Top six76%73%−3
Hibernian
Top six33%31%−2
11th6%6%0

From the forecast before the match (26 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockAberdeen
Expected goals1.421.20
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.521.21
Clean sheet30%24%

Kilmarnock 41%Draw 27%Aberdeen 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%3%1%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawAberdeen win
Kilmarnock
Top six26%35%23%17%
11th8%5%8%11%
Bottom4%2%4%6%
Aberdeen
Top six>99%99%>99%>99%
Motherwell
Top six76%73%76%78%
Hibernian
Top six33%31%35%35%
11th6%6%6%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–120 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.03–0.76
  2. W1–015 DecHearts (H)xG 1.57–1.15
  3. D1–17 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.62–2.38
  4. L0–64 DecRangers (A)xG 0.09–4.60
  5. D1–130 NovDundee FC (H)xG 1.28–0.75
  6. L0–123 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.45–1.02

Aberdeen

  1. L1–321 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.90–1.44
  2. D1–17 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.70–1.35
  3. L0–14 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.88–1.62
  4. D1–11 DecHearts (A)xG 0.62–1.15
  5. D3–326 NovHibernian (A)xG 1.61–2.21
  6. L1–223 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.38–1.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockAberdeen
Position9th3rd
Played1817
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠6–⁠810–⁠4–⁠3
Points18 (1.00 per game)34 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.25
Goals19–⁠3531–⁠21
xG per game1.27–⁠1.631.34–⁠1.50
Home: points, xG per game1.29, 1.76–⁠1.452.20, 1.53–⁠1.40
Away: points, xG per game0.82, 0.97–⁠1.741.71, 1.07–⁠1.64
ManagerDerek McInnes (94)Jimmy Thelin (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.18, 8thAberdeen1.27, 4thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.41, 8thAberdeen1.36, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.18Aberdeen attack: 1.271.271.18AberdeenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.41Aberdeen defence: 1.361.411.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+16%+14%+3%
Counter-attacks−39%−35%−32%−65%
Set pieces+18%+29%−23%+30%
Penalties+3%+3%−64%+9%
Headers−1%+5%+2%+17%
Left side+5%−1%+11%+10%
Centre−19%+23%+2%+10%
Right side−12%+17%−13%−12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side+5%−12%Centre−19%+10%Right side−12%+10%Open play−21%+3%Counter-attacks−39%−65%Set pieces+18%+30%Headers−1%+17%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+11%+17%Centre+2%+23%Right side−13%−1%Open play+14%+16%Counter-attacks−32%−35%Set pieces−23%+29%Headers+2%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.27xG1.34
1.63xG against1.50
43%Possession52%
12.5Shots12.4
14.9Shots against13.5
3.4Shots on target4.1
1.8Big chances2.1
19.7Touches in the opposition box24.9
308Passes422
66%Pass accuracy77%
5.1Corners5.5
41%Field tilt52%
31.0Final-third entries36.3
9.1Box entries13.4
15.8Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.241.53
Ahead101.131.97
Behind351.361.65

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.161.44
Ahead291.271.74
Behind112.321.18

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.251–2
16–300.180.222–5
31–450.180.302–7
46–600.160.263–6
61–750.260.284–6
76–900.340.327–9

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.153–0
16–300.150.173–5
31–450.210.344–5
46–600.260.148–1
61–750.220.315–4
76–900.320.388–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 13O'Hara 5Mayo 5Armstrong 4Lyons 3Findlay 9Mayo 8Wright 6Deas 9Ndaba 4Ndaba 7Lyons 4Deas 3Armstrong 9Wright 3Murray 2Polworth 6Lyons 6Murray 2Watson 9Donnelly 6Mayo 1Kennedy 10Murray 2Ndaba 2Vassell 16Cameron 1Watkins 12Anderson 4Watson 14-4-2 in 8 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 14Doohan 3Devlin 16Milne 1Rubezic 16MacDonald 1Molloy 17MacKenzie 14McGarry 3Shinnie 14Palaversa 4Keskinen 1Nilsen 15Keskinen 11Morris 5McGrath 1Clarkson 8Gueye 4McGrath 2McGrath 13Duk 4Sokler 9Nisbet 7Miovski 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 August 2024Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 1.66–0.43
24 February 2024Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.94–0.48
6 December 2023Aberdeen0–1KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.64
29 October 2023Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.85–0.29
8 April 2023Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 2.20–1.09
28 December 2022Kilmarnock2–1AberdeenxG 1.91–0.42

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Aberdeen won 6, and 0 were drawn. Goals 8–13 and xG 1.01–1.24 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson6590500.650.07
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Watkins131,075300.380.04
Vassell161,226110.270.07

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath161,293460.280.23
Clarkson8659210.220.23
Duk5550020.270.15
Morris5613150.140.26

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.