Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 3–0 Aberdeen

Saturday 31 January 2026, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 24 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Lloyd Wilson · Attendance 5,801

Kilmarnock Lyons 12', Anderson 14', John-Jules 59'

Aberdeen Shinnie sent off 51'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen
Goals	3	0
xG	2.55	1.01
Expected Points	2.34	0.48

Kilmarnock 72%Draw 17%Aberdeen 10%

Most likely score 2–1, 11%. Final score 3–0, 8%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockAberdeen

2.55 +1.41xG1.01 −0.30

2.19 +1.08xG on target0.72 −0.47

19 +9Shots8 −4

9 +5.5Shots on target4 0.0

4 +2.3Big chances3 +1.1

37 +18Touches in the opposition box19 −2

55% +16Possession45% −3

449 +133Passes379 −24

84% +14Pass accuracy83% +5

78% +40Field tilt22% −24

54 +23Final-third entries30 −7

22 +12.9Box entries8 −2.9

10.6 −6Passes per defensive action15.6 +1

7 +2.7Corners3 −2.1

14 −2Tackles16 0

7 −1.4Interceptions13 +6.7

18 −17Clearances22 −9

3 −0.6Saves5 +1.8

16 +3Fouls10 −4

3 +1.2Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Aberdeen

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.84 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.76 6 shots, 0 goals

0.17 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.54 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.26 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–02–03–0

Level: 12 min (12%) · Kilmarnock 0.70, Aberdeen 0.17 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 90 min (88%) · Kilmarnock 1.84, Aberdeen 0.85 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

58' McKenzie for Watson
63' Curtis for Kiltie
79' Thomson for Polworth
79' Hugill for Anderson
88' Dackers for John-Jules

Aberdeen substitutes

35' Nilsen for Knoester
46' Olusanya for Bilalovic
56' Clarkson for Nisbet
66' Jensen for Frame
66' Kjartansson for Cameron · yellow card 84'
66' Lazetic for Keskinen

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Roos	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	2
Schjønning-Larsen	RB	90			0.04	0.22	1	0.30	15	6
Schilte-Brown	CB	90			0.06	0.01	0	0.06	5	6
Deas	CB	90			0.27	0.08	1	0.11	4	8
Thompson	LB	90			0.00	0.11	1	0.23	15	5
Lyons	CM	90	1		0.10	0.04	2	0.02	4	4
Watson	CM	58			0.00	0.02	0	0.01	1	2
Polworth	CM	79			0.28	0.08	1	0.07	4	2
Kiltie	AM	63		1	0.07	0.50	5	0.50	8	1
Anderson	ST	79	1	1	0.63	0.09	1	0.10	3	0
John-Jules	ST	88	1	1	0.85	0.08	2	−0.04	4	0
McKenzie	MF	32			0.00	0.03	1	0.01	2	1
Curtis	MF	27			0.02	0.12	1	0.06	2	3
Thomson	MF	11			0.00	0.01	1	0.00	2	2
Hugill	FW	11			0.24	0.00	0	0.06	1	1
Dackers	FW	2			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0

Aberdeen

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Mitov	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	3
Devlin	RB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.06	7	5
Morrison	CB	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.03	1	14
Knoester	CB	35	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	3
Frame	LB	66	0.00	0.05	1	0.07	2	8
Shinnie	DM	51	0.00	0.10	0	0.02	3	4
Bilalovic	RM	46	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	0
Cameron	CM	66	0.08	0.09	1	0.01	3	2
Armstrong	CM	90	0.42	0.28	0	0.20	12	5
Keskinen	LM	66	0.14	0.10	2	0.13	5	1
Nisbet	ST	56	0.37	0.00	0	−0.01	0	1
Nilsen	MF	55	0.00	0.01	0	0.04	3	3
Olusanya	FW	44	0.00	0.02	1	0.01	1	2
Clarkson	MF	34	0.00	0.01	0	0.04	2	2
Jensen	DF	24	0.00	0.01	0	0.01	2	1
Kjartansson	MF	24	0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0
Lazetic	FW	24	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Aberdeen

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Lyons	Schjønning-Larsen	12
Deas	Thompson	12
Thompson	Polworth	11
Polworth	Thompson	10
Thompson	Lyons	10

Aberdeen

From	To	Passes
Mitov	Morrison	11
Mitov	Nilsen	10
Shinnie	Devlin	8
Armstrong	Frame	8
Cameron	Shinnie	7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 23 matches

Aberdeen

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Aberdeen

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
11th	54%	55%	+1
Bottom	25%	17%	−8
Aberdeen
Top six	10%	6%	−4
11th	<1%	1%	+1
Livingston
11th	24%	17%	−7
Bottom	71%	79%	+8
Falkirk
Top six	85%	88%	+3

From the forecast before the match (31 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen
Expected goals	1.34	1.30
Win	37%	35%
Expected Points	1.39	1.34
Clean sheet	27%	26%

Kilmarnock 37%Draw 27%Aberdeen 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

From the forecast as it stood on 31 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Aberdeen win
Kilmarnock
11th	54%	55%	53%	53%
Bottom	25%	17%	27%	33%
Aberdeen
Top six	10%	6%	8%	17%
11th	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%
Livingston
11th	24%	17%	25%	29%
Bottom	71%	79%	69%	65%
Falkirk
Top six	85%	88%	87%	80%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Aberdeen

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen
Position	11th	7th
Played	23	23
Won, drawn, lost	2–⁠8–⁠13	8–⁠4–⁠11
Points	14 (0.61 per game)	28 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game	0.95	1.25
Goals	20–⁠43	26–⁠30
xG per game	1.14–⁠1.89	1.31–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game	0.55, 1.25–⁠1.62	1.33, 1.54–⁠1.42
Away: points, xG per game	0.67, 1.04–⁠2.13	1.09, 1.05–⁠1.64
Manager	Neil McCann (1)	Peter Leven (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Aberdeen
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−30%	+29%	−8%	−14%
Counter-attacks	+20%	+4%	+12%	+37%
Set pieces	+7%	+26%	−1%	+56%
Penalties	−71%	+132%	−42%	−13%
Headers	−11%	+20%	−31%	+25%
Left side	−52%	+38%	+19%	+11%
Centre	+7%	+31%	−10%	+10%
Right side	−23%	+1%	−12%	+11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−52%+11%Centre+7%+10%Right side−23%+11%Open play−30%−14%Counter-attacks+20%+37%Set pieces+7%+56%Headers−11%+25%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+19%+1%Centre−10%+31%Right side−12%+38%Open play−8%+29%Counter-attacks+12%+4%Set pieces−1%+26%Headers−31%+20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.14xG1.31

1.89xG against1.53

39%Possession48%

10.3Shots12.4

14.9Shots against14.8

3.5Shots on target4.0

1.7Big chances1.9

19.4Touches in the opposition box21.3

316Passes403

70%Pass accuracy78%

4.3Corners5.1

38%Field tilt46%

30.8Final-third entries36.7

9.1Box entries10.9

16.2Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	40	1.16	1.71
Ahead	14	1.01	2.71
Behind	36	1.16	1.79

Aberdeen

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	47	1.21	1.40
Ahead	16	1.05	1.35
Behind	27	1.62	1.86

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.08	0.25	0–4
16–30	0.17	0.25	4–8
31–45	0.30	0.29	7–5
46–60	0.14	0.32	4–9
61–75	0.17	0.35	2–8
76–90	0.28	0.43	3–9

Aberdeen

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.11	0.18	1–2
16–30	0.14	0.21	5–5
31–45	0.30	0.25	4–5
46–60	0.18	0.34	1–5
61–75	0.23	0.26	6–5
76–90	0.33	0.29	9–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Aberdeen

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-4-3 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
14 December 2025	Aberdeen	2–1	Kilmarnock	xG 3.76–1.02
29 October 2025	Kilmarnock	0–1	Aberdeen	xG 1.36–0.55
22 February 2025	Aberdeen	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 1.08–0.43
26 December 2024	Kilmarnock	4–0	Aberdeen	xG 4.02–0.50
25 August 2024	Aberdeen	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 1.66–0.43
24 February 2024	Kilmarnock	2–0	Aberdeen	xG 1.94–0.48

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 5, Aberdeen won 9, and 0 were drawn. Goals 13–17 and xG 1.21–1.31 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Dackers	12	1,134	2	0	0.33	0.10
John-Jules	8	801	3	0	0.32	0.06
Anderson	16	1,375	3	1	0.33	0.04
Tiffoney	6	566	1	1	0.18	0.12

Aberdeen

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Karlsson	16	1,292	5	0	0.34	0.12
Nisbet	12	1,037	3	1	0.31	0.13
Armstrong	17	1,454	1	4	0.15	0.21
Aouchiche	16	1,280	3	0	0.23	0.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.