Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Aberdeen 2–1 Kilmarnock

Sunday 14 December 2025, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 17 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 15,472

Aberdeen Bilalovic 79', Karlsson 85' (pen)

Kilmarnock John-Jules 17'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals21
xG3.761.02
Non-penalty xG2.971.02
Expected Points2.830.11

Aberdeen 93%Draw 6%Kilmarnock 2%

Most likely score 4–1, 15%. Final score 2–1, 7%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+2%3%7%3%6%5%7%6%4%9%4%2%5%2%14%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTShinnie on for Jensen, 46'Lazetic on for Polvara, 65'Bilalovic on for Keskinen, 72'Kiltie on for John-Jules, 65'Dackers on for Anderson, 73'Brannan on for Lyons, Thomson on for Lowery, and Schilte-Brown on for Stanger, 86'Bilalovic 79'Karlsson 85' (pen)John-Jules 17'Aberdeen 3.76Kilmarnock 1.02012340153045607590HTShinnie on for Jensen, 46'Lazetic on for Polvara, 65'Bilalovic on for Keskinen, 72'Kiltie on for John-Jules, 65'Dackers on for Anderson, 73'Brannan on for Lyons, Thomson on for Lowery, and Schilte-Brown on for Stanger, 86'Bilalovic 79'Karlsson 85' (pen)John-Jules 17'3.761.02AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

3.76 +2.51xG1.02 −0.19
2.97Non-penalty xG1.02
2.87 +1.78xG on target1.02 −0.12
21 +8Shots8 −3
8 +4.0Shots on target5 +1.2
5 +3.3Big chances2 +0.1
30 +10Touches in the opposition box14 −6
68% +20Possession32% −7
538 +141Passes253 −55
86% +9Pass accuracy70% 0
65% +19Field tilt35% −2
64 +29Final-third entries31 +3
10 −0.6Box entries7 −2.2
9.3 −6Passes per defensive action18.6 +3
9 +4.4Corners3 −1.6
16 0Tackles19 +3
7 +0.7Interceptions6 −3.4
31 −2Clearances41 +7
4 +1.5Saves5 +2.1
10 −5Fouls14 +1
0 −1.9Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Polvara 62', 0.70 xGShinnie 49', 0.60 xGAouchiche 49', 0.34 xGDevlin 54', 0.12 xGLazetic 82', 0.10 xGMilne 54', 0.09 xGAouchiche 54', 0.08 xGNisbet 62', 0.07 xGPolvara 53', 0.06 xGKeskinen 44', 0.05 xGKarlsson 52', 0.05 xGKeskinen 45', 0.03 xGShinnie 49', 0.03 xGKarlsson 62', 0.03 xGAouchiche 62', 0.03 xGAouchiche 63', 0.03 xGJensen 35', 0.02 xGNisbet 45+1', 0.02 xGArmstrong 62', 0.01 xGBilalovic 79', 0.52 xG, goal32%0.94 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.94 xG, 0 goals64%1.90 xGCentral box: 13 shots, 1.90 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals3%0.08 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Anderson 45+1', 0.15 xGPolworth 23', 0.06 xGAnderson 40', 0.06 xGThompson 23', 0.05 xGMayo 90', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 40', 0.03 xGLyons 10', 0.02 xGJohn-Jules 17', 0.62 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%0.74 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.74 xG, 1 goal18%0.18 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals10%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.61 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.10 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.78 2 shots, 1 goal
1.36 12 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.14 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · Aberdeen 0.89, Kilmarnock 0.65 xG
Aberdeen ahead
8 min (9%) · Aberdeen 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.04 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
63 min (67%) · Aberdeen 2.87, Kilmarnock 0.34 xG

Line-ups

12225281688171715MitovDevlinMilneKnoesterJensenArmstrongPolvaraKeskinenAouchicheKarlssonNisbetYellow cardGoal46'65'72'Aberdeen 3-4-2-1Jimmy Thelin201514563831182419OluwayemiBrownStangerMayoDeasThompsonLyonsPolworthLoweryJohn-JulesAndersonYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal86'86'86'65'73'Kilmarnock 5-3-2Stuart Kettlewell

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Shinnie for Jensen
  • 65' Lazetic for Polvara · yellow card 75'
  • 72' Bilalovic for Keskinen · goal 79'

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' Kiltie for John-Jules
  • 73' Dackers for Anderson
  • 86' Brannan for Lyons
  • 86' Schilte-Brown for Stanger
  • 86' Thomson for Lowery

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0221
DevlinCB900.120.0110.0768
MilneCB900.090.0210.121012
KnoesterCB900.000.0200.12145
JensenRWB460.020.0100.0136
ArmstrongCM900.010.9670.2954
PolvaraCM650.760.0200.0126
KeskinenLWB720.080.020−0.0122
Aouchiche AM900.480.2710.31128
KarlssonAM9010.870.0700.0870
NisbetST9010.090.8120.1822
ShinnieMF440.620.010−0.0211
Lazetic FW250.100.0000.0010
BilalovicFW1810.520.0000.0011

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0000.0433
Brown RWB9010.000.2020.07510
Stanger CB860.000.010−0.0108
MayoCB900.040.0000.01112
Deas CB900.000.0100.0447
ThompsonLWB900.050.0610.1239
Lyons CM860.020.030−0.0427
Polworth CM900.060.0200.0548
LoweryCM860.000.0100.0232
John-JulesST6510.650.0220.0624
AndersonST730.210.000−0.0211
KiltieMF250.000.000−0.0201
DackersFW170.000.000−0.0111
BrannanDF40.000.0000.0000
Schilte-BrownDF40.000.0710.0501
ThomsonMF40.000.0100.0102

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Jensen and Armstrong: 4 passesKnoester and Devlin: 5 passesKnoester and Armstrong: 5 passesKnoester and Karlsson: 5 passesArmstrong and Aouchiche: 5 passesArmstrong and Karlsson: 5 passesAouchiche and Karlsson: 5 passesMitov and Knoester: 6 passesDevlin and Armstrong: 6 passesJensen and Aouchiche: 6 passesJensen and Karlsson: 6 passesPolvara and Armstrong: 6 passesKnoester and Aouchiche: 7 passesDevlin and Aouchiche: 7 passesMilne and Aouchiche: 7 passesDevlin and Polvara: 8 passesMilne and Polvara: 8 passesKeskinen and Aouchiche: 8 passesKnoester and Keskinen: 11 passesJensen and Polvara: 13 passesKnoester and Polvara: 14 passesPolvara and Aouchiche: 15 passesDevlin and Milne: 16 passesDevlin and Jensen: 17 passesKnoester and Milne: 18 passesMitov: 10 completed passesKnoester: 35 completed passesDevlin: 32 completed passesMilne: 29 completed passesJensen: 25 completed passesKeskinen: 13 completed passesPolvara: 35 completed passesArmstrong: 20 completed passesAouchiche: 30 completed passesNisbet: 3 completed passesKarlsson: 15 completed passes15222288181671517MitovKnoesterDevlinMilneJensenKeskinenPolvaraArmstrongAouchicheNisbetKarlssonStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and John-Jules: 3 passesBrown and Lowery: 3 passesMayo and Polworth: 3 passesThompson and Anderson: 3 passesLowery and John-Jules: 3 passesLyons and Anderson: 3 passesMayo and John-Jules: 4 passesThompson and Lowery: 4 passesPolworth and John-Jules: 4 passesPolworth and Anderson: 4 passesThompson and Polworth: 5 passesPolworth and Lyons: 5 passesLyons and John-Jules: 5 passesBrown and John-Jules: 6 passesStanger and Lyons: 6 passesThompson and John-Jules: 6 passesLowery and Polworth: 6 passesBrown and Stanger: 7 passesStanger and Polworth: 7 passesDeas and Lowery: 8 passesDeas and Thompson: 9 passesBrown and Lyons: 11 passesBrown and Polworth: 12 passesOluwayemi: 3 completed passesBrown: 23 completed passesStanger: 15 completed passesMayo: 7 completed passesDeas: 11 completed passesThompson: 16 completed passesLowery: 17 completed passesPolworth: 26 completed passesLyons: 15 completed passesJohn-Jules: 13 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passes201514563183182419OluwayemiBrownStangerMayoDeasThompsonLoweryPolworthLyonsJohn-JulesAndersonStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
KnoesterMilne15
MilneKnoester14
AouchicheKnoester14
KnoesterShinnie12
DevlinMilne11

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthBrown8
BrownPolworth8
BrownLyons8
LoweryDeas5
DeasThompson5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

3−2.112+5.34−4.75−0.312+4.38+0.69+3.79−1.19+1.95−0.22−1.71−3.46+0.37−0.53+0.41−2.51−1.92−1.53−1.93+0.510.02+1.21−0.72−0.50−0.20−0.20−0.50−0.61+0.39−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Kilmarnock

7+0.810+1.227+11.05−1.75+0.79+1.88+1.46−1.15−3.16+0.64−1.812+7.07+3.92−2.93−2.33−1.45+0.82−0.62−1.06+2.33+0.31−1.23+1.30−2.11−0.72+1.11+0.40−0.90−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.020.010.020.040.010.010.020.030.060.030.070.040.010.060.060.040.020.010.040.060.010.170.190.15LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.020.010.01−0.01−0.060.030.040.040.060.040.06LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.23 → 1.29Kilmarnock1.16 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.38 → 1.34Kilmarnock1.51 → 1.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six55%64%+9
11th1%0%−1
Bottom<1%<1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six5%3%−2
11th17%19%+2
Bottom10%12%+2
Falkirk
Top six25%21%−4
11th6%7%+1
Livingston
11th27%28%+1
Bottom45%43%−2

From the forecast before the match (14 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.631.07
Win50%24%
Expected Points1.750.99
Clean sheet34%20%

Aberdeen 50%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Aberdeen
Top six55%64%49%42%
11th1%0%1%2%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six5%3%5%10%
11th17%19%18%13%
Bottom10%12%10%6%
Falkirk
Top six25%21%28%29%
11th6%7%5%6%
Livingston
11th27%28%26%26%
Bottom45%43%44%48%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W3–16 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.38–1.12
  2. D3–33 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.08–1.83
  3. W1–030 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.76–0.99
  4. W1–023 NovHearts (H)xG 0.56–2.30
  5. D1–19 NovMotherwell (H)xG 0.80–0.68
  6. W1–029 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.55–1.36

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–36 DecRangers (H)xG 0.66–0.75
  2. D1–13 DecHearts (A)xG 1.80–2.19
  3. D1–129 NovDundee United (H)xG 2.11–1.86
  4. L1–322 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.73–2.24
  5. L0–49 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.38–2.85
  6. L1–31 NovFalkirk (A)xG 0.43–2.08

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position6th11th
Played1516
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠3–⁠62–⁠6–⁠8
Points21 (1.40 per game)12 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.321.06
Goals16–⁠1616–⁠30
xG per game1.25–⁠1.311.21–⁠1.74
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.28–⁠1.410.67, 1.35–⁠1.51
Away: points, xG per game1.71, 1.21–⁠1.190.86, 1.04–⁠2.03
ManagerJimmy Thelin (53)Stuart Kettlewell (16)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.23, 6thKilmarnock1.16, 8thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.38, 6thKilmarnock1.51, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen attack: 1.23Kilmarnock attack: 1.161.231.16KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen defence: 1.38Kilmarnock defence: 1.511.511.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−8%−20%−28%+14%
Counter-attacks+44%+24%+26%+39%
Set pieces−7%+31%+35%+23%
Penalties−62%−25%−65%+112%
Headers−26%+5%+4%+21%
Left side+24%+4%−48%+37%
Centre−9%−6%+28%+26%
Right side−10%+7%−27%−11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+24%−11%Centre−9%+26%Right side−10%+37%Open play−8%+14%Counter-attacks+44%+39%Set pieces−7%+23%Headers−26%+21%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−48%+7%Centre+28%−6%Right side−27%+4%Open play−28%−20%Counter-attacks+26%+24%Set pieces+35%+31%Headers+4%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.25xG1.21
1.31xG against1.74
48%Possession39%
12.9Shots10.7
13.3Shots against13.7
4.0Shots on target3.8
1.7Big chances1.9
20.2Touches in the opposition box19.7
397Passes308
77%Pass accuracy70%
4.6Corners4.6
46%Field tilt37%
35.4Final-third entries28.0
10.6Box entries9.2
15.7Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.311.02
Ahead200.921.42
Behind181.412.02

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.221.55
Ahead141.242.29
Behind381.191.72

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.140–1
16–300.190.165–1
31–450.300.132–2
46–600.130.360–3
61–750.220.214–4
76–900.270.315–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.280–3
16–300.140.293–7
31–450.360.286–3
46–600.180.203–6
61–750.150.321–6
76–900.330.383–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTMitov 15Devlin 10Milanovic 4Keskinen 1Milne 13Dorrington 2Knoester 14Jensen 9Lobban 5Devlin 1Polvara 5Armstrong 4Aouchiche 4Shinnie 7Nilsen 4Palaversa 3Gyamfi 5Jensen 3Shinnie 2Aouchiche 7Armstrong 6Polvara 2Karlsson 10Keskinen 5Nisbet 7Lazetic 5Yengi 33-4-2-1 in 6 of 15 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-3 (4)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTStryjek 7Oluwayemi 6Beach 3Stanger 10Schilte-Brown 4Brown 1Mayo 13Deas 15Williams 3Brown 8Brandon 4Brannan 2Watson 15McKenzie 3Thomson 1Polworth 10Anderson 2Lyons 8Kiltie 5Lowery 4Thompson 12Brannan 3Tiffoney 1Dackers 10Daniels 4Tiffoney 3Anderson 8Kiltie 4Thompson 13-5-2 in 4 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-3 (3), 5-3-2 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 October 2025Kilmarnock0–1AberdeenxG 1.36–0.55
22 February 2025Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–0.43
26 December 2024Kilmarnock4–0AberdeenxG 4.02–0.50
25 August 2024Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 1.66–0.43
24 February 2024Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.94–0.48
6 December 2023Aberdeen0–1KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.64

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 8, Kilmarnock won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 15–12 and xG 1.12–1.22 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Karlsson10844300.310.15
Lazetic5547410.370.01
Armstrong10838130.210.16
Nisbet7563100.270.08

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson10886310.420.06
Dackers11992100.290.11
Tiffoney5475110.220.10
Kiltie9780020.050.22

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.