Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 0–1 Aberdeen

Wednesday 29 October 2025, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 10 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Duncan Nicolson · Attendance 5,118

Aberdeen Armstrong 18'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockAberdeen
Goals01
xG1.360.55
Expected Points1.990.70

Kilmarnock 56%Draw 30%Aberdeen 13%

Most likely score 1–0, 19%. Final score 0–1, 8%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+13%8%2%3%14%9%2%6%4%2%1%19%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Polworth, 63'Tiffoney on for Kiltie, 73'John-Jules on for Lyons and McKenzie on for Williams, 82'Nisbet on for Lazetic, 71'Armstrong 18'Kilmarnock 1.36Aberdeen 0.5500.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Polworth, 63'Tiffoney on for Kiltie, 73'John-Jules on for Lyons and McKenzie on for Williams, 82'Nisbet on for Lazetic, 71'Armstrong 18'1.360.55KilmarnockAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.36 +0.15xG0.55 −0.84
0.59 −0.76xG on target0.99 +0.12
14 +4Shots6 −8
4 +0.2Shots on target3 −0.7
2 −0.1Big chances1 −1.0
28 +11Touches in the opposition box8 −15
57% +21Possession43% −6
453 +161Passes367 −52
78% +8Pass accuracy72% −7
61% +30Field tilt39% −7
43 +18Final-third entries27 −7
15 +7.1Box entries6 −5.2
12.4 −4Passes per defensive action15.4 0
7 +2.7Corners2 −2.6
9 −9Tackles12 −2
9 −0.3Interceptions7 +0.4
29 −8Clearances51 +23
2 −1.0Saves4 +1.6
12 −1Fouls17 +2
3 +1.9Offsides2 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Tiffoney 90+4', 0.24 xGDeas 47', 0.21 xGDeas 74', 0.20 xGLyons 79', 0.15 xGJohn-Jules 90+4', 0.11 xGDackers 22', 0.09 xGKiltie 8', 0.08 xGDackers 76', 0.08 xGWatson 90+5', 0.06 xGStanger 90+1', 0.04 xGKiltie 41', 0.03 xGDackers 62', 0.03 xGWilliams 66', 0.03 xGLyons 78', 0.01 xG15%0.20 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 0 goals76%1.04 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.04 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Karlsson 60', 0.10 xGLazetic 62', 0.07 xGPolvara 44', 0.05 xGKarlsson 37', 0.02 xGKarlsson 2', 0.01 xGArmstrong 18', 0.30 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals67%0.37 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.37 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals31%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockAberdeen

0.67 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.45 5 shots, 1 goal
0.69 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (19%) · Kilmarnock 0.08, Aberdeen 0.31 xG
Aberdeen ahead
77 min (81%) · Kilmarnock 1.27, Aberdeen 0.23 xG

Line-ups

20146426128313911OluwayemiStangerDeasWilliamsBrannanWatsonLyonsPolworthThompsonDackersKiltieYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card82'82'63'73'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell12225388428162717MitovDevlinMilneKnoesterLobbanPolvaraShinnieJensenArmstrongLazeticKarlssonYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card71'Aberdeen 3-4-3Jimmy Thelin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' Anderson for Polworth
  • 73' Tiffoney for Kiltie
  • 82' McKenzie for Williams
  • 82' John-Jules for Lyons

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 71' Nisbet for Lazetic

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0100.09104
Stanger CB900.040.0000.0279
DeasCB900.410.0200.13815
WilliamsCB820.030.0100.0445
BrannanRWB900.000.0510.0845
Watson CM900.060.0800.1233
Lyons CM820.160.0810.1412
PolworthCM630.000.0300.0212
ThompsonLWB900.000.7940.35103
DackersST900.200.030−0.0700
Kiltie ST730.110.2530.0521
AndersonFW270.000.0710.0710
TiffoneyFW170.240.0510.1020
McKenzieMF80.000.0000.0110
John-JulesFW80.110.010−0.0201

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Mitov GK900.000.0000.0240
DevlinCB900.000.0100.0219
MilneCB900.000.0100.02115
KnoesterCB900.000.0300.08612
Lobban RWB900.000.0100.0239
Polvara CM900.050.2100.0425
Shinnie CM900.000.0100.0137
JensenLWB900.000.0120.0425
ArmstrongRW9010.300.0510.0325
Lazetic ST710.070.0100.0920
Karlsson LW900.130.0410.0576
NisbetFW190.000.0000.0710

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Dackers: 5 passesWatson and Lyons: 5 passesDeas and Watson: 6 passesWilliams and Kiltie: 6 passesOluwayemi and Williams: 7 passesStanger and Brannan: 7 passesStanger and Watson: 7 passesDeas and Thompson: 7 passesThompson and Kiltie: 7 passesOluwayemi and Deas: 8 passesBrannan and Lyons: 9 passesThompson and Polworth: 9 passesWilliams and Polworth: 11 passesBrannan and Watson: 12 passesDeas and Polworth: 13 passesStanger and Lyons: 14 passesStanger and Deas: 18 passesWilliams and Thompson: 19 passesDeas and Lyons: 21 passesDeas and Williams: 32 passesOluwayemi: 18 completed passesStanger: 26 completed passesDeas: 58 completed passesWilliams: 43 completed passesBrannan: 23 completed passesThompson: 27 completed passesPolworth: 26 completed passesWatson: 19 completed passesLyons: 34 completed passesKiltie: 14 completed passesDackers: 9 completed passes20146426331128119OluwayemiStangerDeasWilliamsBrannanThompsonPolworthWatsonLyonsKiltieDackersStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Aberdeen

Mitov and Polvara: 4 passesKnoester and Polvara: 4 passesKnoester and Armstrong: 4 passesMilne and Polvara: 4 passesDevlin and Polvara: 4 passesLazetic and Karlsson: 4 passesKnoester and Karlsson: 5 passesJensen and Polvara: 5 passesPolvara and Armstrong: 5 passesShinnie and Karlsson: 5 passesLobban and Karlsson: 6 passesPolvara and Shinnie: 6 passesShinnie and Armstrong: 7 passesArmstrong and Karlsson: 7 passesMitov and Devlin: 9 passesKnoester and Shinnie: 9 passesJensen and Karlsson: 10 passesKnoester and Jensen: 12 passesMitov and Knoester: 13 passesDevlin and Lobban: 13 passesLobban and Armstrong: 13 passesJensen and Shinnie: 13 passesMitov and Milne: 15 passesKnoester and Milne: 15 passesMilne and Devlin: 15 passesMitov: 27 completed passesKnoester: 32 completed passesMilne: 27 completed passesDevlin: 29 completed passesLobban: 20 completed passesJensen: 22 completed passesPolvara: 14 completed passesShinnie: 27 completed passesArmstrong: 23 completed passesLazetic: 4 completed passesKarlsson: 18 completed passes15222382884162717MitovKnoesterMilneDevlinLobbanJensenPolvaraShinnieArmstrongLazeticKarlssonStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WilliamsDeas21
DeasWilliams18
LyonsDeas13
StangerDeas11
WilliamsThompson11

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
KnoesterMilne11
MilneDevlin9
MitovKnoester9
JensenKnoester9
JensenKarlsson8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−5.97−2.24−3.12−1.82−6.113+5.911+3.95−4.65+0.22−4.25−0.69+6.26+1.80−6.04−1.11−3.96+3.65+2.12−0.82−0.91−1.020.02+0.41−0.20−1.00−0.42+1.01+0.60−1.09−7.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Aberdeen

5−0.65−1.420+8.110+1.94−0.311+3.66−0.39+5.07−2.811+5.12−4.33−0.64−0.310+5.05−3.31−2.42−1.10−3.34+0.64−1.93+0.81−0.22+1.40−1.60−2.30−0.20−0.20−0.71+0.40−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.010.010.050.020.010.020.030.030.03−0.010.040.090.020.060.060.070.08−0.02−0.060.05−0.010.140.170.17LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.030.010.010.050.050.010.01−0.01−0.010.07−0.010.100.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.21 → 1.22Aberdeen1.25 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.45 → 1.42Aberdeen1.40 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six36%24%−12
11th6%10%+4
Bottom3%4%+1
Aberdeen
Top six21%30%+9
11th10%6%−4
Bottom4%2%−2

From the forecast before the match (29 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockAberdeen
Expected goals1.461.18
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.561.17
Clean sheet31%23%

Kilmarnock 43%Draw 27%Aberdeen 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawAberdeen win
Kilmarnock
Top six36%46%33%24%
11th6%4%7%10%
Bottom3%2%3%4%
Aberdeen
Top six21%15%20%30%
11th10%12%10%6%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–326 OctRangers (A)xG 1.04–1.36
  2. L0–318 OctHearts (H)xG 0.43–2.88
  3. W2–04 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.15–0.43
  4. W2–027 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.49–2.21
  5. L1–214 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.66–2.83
  6. D2–230 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.20–1.76

Aberdeen

  1. L1–226 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.24–3.20
  2. W1–018 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.05–0.48
  3. W4–05 OctDundee FC (H)xG 2.80–0.31
  4. L0–227 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.00–2.03
  5. L0–223 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.33–1.33
  6. D0–013 SepLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockAberdeen
Position8th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠32–⁠1–⁠6
Points10 (1.11 per game)7 (0.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.101.46
Goals12–⁠146–⁠11
xG per game1.21–⁠1.701.39–⁠1.26
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.25–⁠1.650.80, 1.35–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game1.25, 1.17–⁠1.780.75, 1.44–⁠1.22
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (9)Jimmy Thelin (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.21, 8thAberdeen1.25, 6thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.45, 8thAberdeen1.40, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.21Aberdeen attack: 1.251.251.21AberdeenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.45Aberdeen defence: 1.401.451.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%average+3%−18%
Counter-attacks+27%+35%+63%+76%
Set pieces+38%+35%−18%−21%
Penalties−100%+75%−42%−42%
Headers+27%+44%−28%−16%
Left side−46%+19%+20%+1%
Centre+29%+15%−2%−18%
Right side−34%+13%+4%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−46%+14%Centre+29%−18%Right side−34%+1%Open play−32%−18%Counter-attacks+27%+76%Set pieces+38%−21%Headers+27%−16%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+20%+13%Centre−2%+15%Right side+4%+19%Open play+3%averageCounter-attacks+63%+35%Set pieces−18%+35%Headers−28%+44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.21xG1.39
1.70xG against1.26
36%Possession49%
10.0Shots13.7
14.2Shots against12.7
3.8Shots on target3.7
2.1Big chances2.0
17.4Touches in the opposition box22.9
292Passes419
70%Pass accuracy79%
4.3Corners4.6
30%Field tilt47%
24.9Final-third entries34.0
7.9Box entries11.2
16.2Passes per defensive action15.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.091.20
Ahead221.352.24
Behind231.342.16

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level541.320.93
Ahead82.170.36
Behind291.332.12

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.170–1
16–300.210.263–3
31–450.310.285–1
46–600.170.192–3
61–750.140.330–4
76–900.320.472–2

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.090–1
16–300.190.162–1
31–450.300.141–2
46–600.160.370–1
61–750.230.231–3
76–900.350.272–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTStryjek 7Beach 2Stanger 7Schilte-Brown 2Lyons 1Mayo 9Deas 8Brandon 4Brown 4Brannan 1Watson 9McKenzie 2Polworth 8Lyons 3Kiltie 4Lowery 1Thompson 6Brannan 3Dackers 8Daniels 4Anderson 5Kiltie 13-5-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 5-3-2 (3), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 9Jensen 6Devlin 3Milne 7Dorrington 2Devlin 1Knoester 8Gyamfi 4Molloy 2Shinnie 2Armstrong 4Nilsen 4Clarkson 2Shinnie 4Palaversa 3Milanovic 4Aouchiche 2Devlin 1Aouchiche 5Jensen 2Polvara 2Karlsson 6Keskinen 3Nisbet 6Yengi 34-2-3-1 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 February 2025Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–0.43
26 December 2024Kilmarnock4–0AberdeenxG 4.02–0.50
25 August 2024Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 1.66–0.43
24 February 2024Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.94–0.48
6 December 2023Aberdeen0–1KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.64
29 October 2023Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.85–0.29

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 5, Aberdeen won 7, and 0 were drawn. Goals 12–14 and xG 1.21–1.17 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers8727100.240.15
Watson9785310.300.06
Polworth8619110.050.16
Stanger7554200.190.00

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Karlsson6485200.380.19
Aouchiche7579100.250.06
Jensen8705000.070.07
Devlin6502000.060.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.