Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 22 February 2025, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 27 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 16,993

Aberdeen Dabbagh 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals10
xG1.080.43
Expected Points1.950.71

Aberdeen 54%Draw 34%Kilmarnock 12%

Most likely score 1–0, 28%. Final score 1–0, 28%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+18%8%2%14%3%14%6%1%3%1%28%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTDevlin on for MacKenzie, 46'Shinnie on for Devlin, Dabbagh on for Gueye, and Clarkson on for Palaversa, 65'Morris on for Okkels, 73'Anderson on for Wales, 70'Armstrong on for Donnelly and Watson on for Lyons, 82'Cameron on for Watkins and Kennedy on for Murray, 89'Dabbagh 90+1'Aberdeen 1.08Kilmarnock 0.4300.511.50153045607590HTDevlin on for MacKenzie, 46'Shinnie on for Devlin, Dabbagh on for Gueye, and Clarkson on for Palaversa, 65'Morris on for Okkels, 73'Anderson on for Wales, 70'Armstrong on for Donnelly and Watson on for Lyons, 82'Cameron on for Watkins and Kennedy on for Murray, 89'Dabbagh 90+1'1.080.43AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.08 −0.14xG0.43 −0.97
1.47 +0.13xG on target0.85 −0.34
8 −4Shots10 −3
3 −0.9Shots on target5 +1.2
1 −0.8Big chances1 −1.0
33 +8Touches in the opposition box21 −1
61% +7Possession39% −6
410 −28Passes250 −69
72% −5Pass accuracy58% −10
62% +11Field tilt38% −6
26 −12Final-third entries24 −9
15 +2Box entries8 −3
8.9 −4Passes per defensive action10.4 −5
8 +2.5Corners5 −0.8
15 −3Tackles16 +1
2 −4.8Interceptions10 +1.1
36 +4Clearances38 +2
5 +2.3Saves2 −0.7
14 +3Fouls14 +4
1 −0.4Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Keskinen 54', 0.15 xGKeskinen 26', 0.14 xGNisbet 84', 0.14 xGNisbet 56', 0.07 xGJensen 49', 0.03 xGKeskinen 82', 0.02 xGKnoester 83', 0.02 xGDabbagh 90+1', 0.51 xG, goal60%0.65 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.65 xG, 1 goal19%0.21 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals19%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Donnelly 36', 0.10 xGNdaba 21', 0.08 xGDonnelly 16', 0.04 xGNdaba 18', 0.04 xGDonnelly 21', 0.04 xGWatkins 88', 0.04 xGPolworth 4', 0.03 xGLyons 21', 0.02 xGWright 43', 0.02 xGNdaba 45+3', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals44%0.19 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals21%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals26%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

0.45 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.22 5 shots, 0 goals
0.63 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.21 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
94 min (99%) · Aberdeen 1.08, Kilmarnock 0.43 xG
Aberdeen ahead
1 min (1%) · Aberdeen 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12824531868114169MitovJensenTobersKnoesterMacKenziePalaversaNilsenKeskinenGueyeOkkelsNisbetYellow cardYellow card46'65'65'73'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin1845622313242315O'HaraLyonsWrightMayoDeasDonnellyPolworthNdabaWalesWatkinsMurrayYellow cardYellow cardYellow card82'82'70'89'89'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Derek McInnes

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Devlin for MacKenzie · off 65'
  • 65' Shinnie for Devlin
  • 65' Clarkson for Palaversa
  • 65' Dabbagh for Gueye · goal 90+1'
  • 73' Morris for Okkels

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 70' Anderson for Wales
  • 82' Armstrong for Donnelly
  • 82' Watson for Lyons
  • 89' Kennedy for Murray
  • 89' Cameron for Watkins

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0212
JensenRB900.030.0700.1133
TobersCB900.000.0300.1059
KnoesterCB900.020.0800.14611
MacKenzieLB460.000.0000.0125
Palaversa DM650.000.0910.0238
Nilsen DM900.000.1610.1232
KeskinenRW900.310.1600.1912
GueyeAM650.000.121−0.0422
OkkelsLW730.000.040−0.0140
NisbetST9010.210.082−0.0613
DevlinDF190.000.0000.0002
ShinnieMF250.000.0000.0214
ClarksonMF250.000.1210.0420
DabbaghFW2510.510.0110.0321
MorrisFW170.000.0200.0240

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0001
Lyons RB820.020.0210.0134
WrightCB900.020.0700.19211
MayoCB900.000.0110.0659
DeasLB900.000.0100.06510
DonnellyCM820.180.0120.0106
PolworthCM900.030.0500.0833
NdabaCM900.140.0600.08210
Wales RW700.000.1300.0603
WatkinsST890.040.0700.1032
Murray LW890.000.0420.0454
AndersonFW200.000.000−0.0100
ArmstrongMF80.000.0000.0003
WatsonMF80.000.0000.0110
KennedyMF10.000.0000.0110
CameronFW10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Jensen and Keskinen: 3 passesKnoester and Palaversa: 3 passesKnoester and Nilsen: 3 passesMacKenzie and Nilsen: 3 passesPalaversa and Gueye: 3 passesGueye and Okkels: 3 passesMitov and Palaversa: 4 passesJensen and Nisbet: 4 passesKnoester and MacKenzie: 4 passesKnoester and Gueye: 4 passesGueye and Nisbet: 4 passesOkkels and Nisbet: 4 passesMitov and Tobers: 5 passesMitov and Knoester: 5 passesMacKenzie and Gueye: 5 passesNilsen and Okkels: 5 passesMacKenzie and Okkels: 6 passesPalaversa and Okkels: 6 passesMacKenzie and Palaversa: 8 passesPalaversa and Nisbet: 8 passesTobers and Nilsen: 9 passesJensen and Tobers: 10 passesJensen and Palaversa: 11 passesTobers and Palaversa: 11 passesPalaversa and Nilsen: 11 passesTobers and Knoester: 12 passesMitov: 10 completed passesJensen: 19 completed passesTobers: 27 completed passesKnoester: 16 completed passesMacKenzie: 20 completed passesPalaversa: 34 completed passesNilsen: 21 completed passesKeskinen: 5 completed passesGueye: 8 completed passesOkkels: 14 completed passesNisbet: 8 completed passes12824531868114169MitovJensenTobersKnoesterMacKenziePalaversaNilsenKeskinenGueyeOkkelsNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

O'Hara and Wright: 3 passesLyons and Watkins: 3 passesMayo and Watkins: 3 passesDeas and Donnelly: 3 passesDeas and Wales: 3 passesLyons and Mayo: 4 passesDeas and Polworth: 4 passesMurray and Donnelly: 4 passesMurray and Wales: 4 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 4 passesPolworth and Wales: 5 passesLyons and Polworth: 6 passesMayo and Polworth: 7 passesDeas and Murray: 8 passesMurray and Polworth: 8 passesO'Hara: 7 completed passesLyons: 10 completed passesWright: 9 completed passesMayo: 12 completed passesDeas: 16 completed passesMurray: 11 completed passesPolworth: 18 completed passesDonnelly: 10 completed passesNdaba: 6 completed passesWales: 6 completed passesWatkins: 6 completed passes1845615312232423O'HaraLyonsWrightMayoDeasMurrayPolworthDonnellyNdabaWalesWatkinsStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
NilsenPalaversa10
NilsenTobers10
TobersKnoester9
PalaversaTobers7
PalaversaNisbet7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthMurray9
DeasMurray6
DeasPolworth6
MayoLyons6
MayoPolworth5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

10+4.86−0.218+0.33−3.29+2.39+3.54−1.24−3.89+1.74−1.42−1.74+0.42−3.86+0.30−3.91−2.15+2.54+0.77+2.90−1.91−0.41−0.40−1.63+0.10−0.61+0.70−0.41+0.61+0.52−6.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Kilmarnock

8+3.311+3.217+0.18+0.62−3.36+0.35−2.311+4.54−2.52−3.57+3.14+0.63−1.83−2.24+0.77+3.43+0.93−0.47+2.73+1.10−1.71+0.22+0.63+0.11+0.40−0.52+1.20−0.40−0.73−3.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.030.01−0.010.010.010.040.030.040.01−0.010.090.050.090.030.050.040.05−0.120.05−0.020.20LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.050.030.010.050.010.010.080.040.070.050.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.15 → 1.17Kilmarnock1.25 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.50 → 1.46Kilmarnock1.33 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six91%99%+8
Kilmarnock
Top six29%16%−13
11th4%7%+3
Bottom<1%1%+1
Hearts
Top six45%47%+2
Hibernian
Top six82%84%+2

From the forecast before the match (22 February 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.361.27
Win38%34%
Expected Points1.431.30
Clean sheet28%26%

Aberdeen 38%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%2%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 February 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Aberdeen
Top six91%99%92%83%
Kilmarnock
Top six29%16%25%47%
11th4%7%4%2%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
Hearts
Top six45%47%46%42%
Hibernian
Top six82%84%82%80%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W2–115 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.80–1.81
  2. L0–21 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.48–1.60
  3. L0–325 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.41–1.78
  4. L0–315 JanRangers (A)xG 0.29–3.34
  5. D0–012 JanHearts (H)xG 1.10–1.54
  6. L0–25 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.89–1.36

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–115 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.40–0.67
  2. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.39–1.46
  3. L2–325 JanHearts (A)xG 1.05–2.51
  4. D0–08 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.72–0.39
  5. L0–15 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.56–1.15
  6. W2–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.98–0.26

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position3rd7th
Played2626
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠5–⁠108–⁠7–⁠11
Points38 (1.46 per game)31 (1.19 per game)
Expected Points per game1.101.33
Goals34–⁠3931–⁠41
xG per game1.22–⁠1.691.40–⁠1.48
Home: points, xG per game1.77, 1.49–⁠1.401.69, 1.87–⁠1.12
Away: points, xG per game1.15, 0.95–⁠1.990.69, 0.92–⁠1.85
ManagerJimmy Thelin (26)Derek McInnes (102)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.15, 7thKilmarnock1.25, 5thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.50, 8thKilmarnock1.33, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebAberdeen attack: 1.15Kilmarnock attack: 1.251.251.15KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebAberdeen defence: 1.50Kilmarnock defence: 1.331.501.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−1%+23%−12%+7%
Counter-attacks−32%−26%−40%−15%
Set pieces−15%+36%+26%+16%
Penalties−77%−9%+14%−32%
Headers−9%+25%+1%+5%
Left side+9%+13%+5%−5%
Centre−11%+23%−9%+17%
Right side−17%+28%−2%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+9%+2%Centre−11%+17%Right side−17%−5%Open play−1%+7%Counter-attacks−32%−15%Set pieces−15%+16%Headers−9%+5%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side+5%+28%Centre−9%+23%Right side−2%+13%Open play−12%+23%Counter-attacks−40%−26%Set pieces+26%+36%Headers+1%+25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.22xG1.40
1.69xG against1.48
54%Possession45%
11.8Shots12.9
14.0Shots against13.2
3.9Shots on target3.8
1.8Big chances2.0
25.1Touches in the opposition box22.1
438Passes319
78%Pass accuracy67%
5.5Corners5.8
52%Field tilt44%
37.5Final-third entries32.7
13.3Box entries10.7
13.3Passes per defensive action15.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.121.63
Ahead211.221.83
Behind231.401.71

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.451.51
Ahead171.531.25
Behind301.241.59

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.203–2
16–300.170.214–8
31–450.180.335–8
46–600.230.189–5
61–750.190.315–4
76–900.280.478–12

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.253–3
16–300.190.213–6
31–450.160.232–7
46–600.180.257–7
61–750.290.237–7
76–900.340.329–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 16Doohan 10Devlin 24Jensen 1Milne 1Rubezic 20Tobers 5MacDonald 4Molloy 19Nilsen 2Knoester 1MacKenzie 19McGarry 5Jensen 2Shinnie 21Palaversa 8Keskinen 2Nilsen 20Keskinen 15Morris 5Duk 2Clarkson 13Gueye 4McGrath 4McGrath 13Duk 5Keskinen 4Nisbet 11Sokler 11Gueye 24-2-3-1 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 18O'Hara 8Lyons 8Mayo 6Armstrong 4Mayo 14Wright 13Deas 12Findlay 9Ndaba 11Lyons 4Deas 4Armstrong 13Wright 3Murray 2Watson 13Murray 3Ndaba 2Polworth 10Lyons 7Donnelly 7Kennedy 10Murray 7Ndaba 3Vassell 19Wales 4Cameron 2Watkins 16Anderson 5Deas 14-4-2 in 12 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (12), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 December 2024Kilmarnock4–0AberdeenxG 4.02–0.50
25 August 2024Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 1.66–0.43
24 February 2024Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.94–0.48
6 December 2023Aberdeen0–1KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.64
29 October 2023Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.85–0.29
8 April 2023Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 2.20–1.09

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 6, Kilmarnock won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 13–12 and xG 1.18–1.28 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Gueye7559500.570.05
McGrath191,567460.240.22
Duk8936020.250.20
Nisbet111,002530.320.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8833800.780.07
Kennedy11953410.180.32
Watkins171,488410.380.05
Wales8763320.270.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.