Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee FC

Tuesday 12 May 2026, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 37 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 5,839

Kilmarnock Lowery 62', Hugill 85' (pen), 90+4'

Dundee FC Lowery 77' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee FC
Goals31
xG3.480.43
Non-penalty xG2.690.43
Expected Points2.910.06

Kilmarnock 96%Draw 4%Dundee FC 1%

Most likely score 3–0, 18%. Final score 3–1, 8%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+4%2%11%5%1%8%2%8%1%9%4%5%2%18%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTWatkins on for Anderson, 58'Watson on for Watkins and Mayo on for Schjønning-Larsen, 87'McKenzie on for Kiltie, 90+2'Bevan on for C. Robertson, 67'Reilly on for Wright and Westley on for Hay, 68'Oosenbrugh on for Halliday, 78'Yogane on for Cotterill, 86'Lowery 62'Hugill 85' (pen)Hugill 90+4'Lowery 77' (og)Kilmarnock 3.48Dundee FC 0.43012340153045607590HTWatkins on for Anderson, 58'Watson on for Watkins and Mayo on for Schjønning-Larsen, 87'McKenzie on for Kiltie, 90+2'Bevan on for C. Robertson, 67'Reilly on for Wright and Westley on for Hay, 68'Oosenbrugh on for Halliday, 78'Yogane on for Cotterill, 86'Lowery 62'Hugill 85' (pen)Hugill 90+4'Lowery 77' (og)3.480.43KilmarnockDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee FC

3.48 +2.24xG0.43 −0.58
2.69Non-penalty xG0.43
3.83 +2.62xG on target0.21 −0.76
19 +8Shots7 −3
8 +4.2Shots on target2 −1.2
7 +5.1Big chances0 −1.4
31 +11Touches in the opposition box20 +4
52% +10Possession48% +5
442 +102Passes419 +69
80% +8Pass accuracy76% +2
6 +1.6Corners2 −1.9
7 −8Tackles10 −4
7 −1.1Interceptions6 −1.9
37 +3Clearances46 +12
2 −1.6Saves5 +1.2
13 −0.3Fouls18 +9.1
1 −0.8Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Curtis 45', 0.62 xGAnderson 44', 0.33 xGCurtis 75', 0.23 xGMcKenzie 90+4', 0.17 xGKiltie 67', 0.14 xGLowery 19', 0.09 xGTshibola 60', 0.09 xGWatkins 73', 0.08 xGCurtis 48', 0.06 xGHugill 22', 0.05 xGCurtis 30', 0.05 xGThompson 52', 0.04 xGLowery 13', 0.03 xGSchjønning-Larsen 15', 0.03 xGSchjønning-Larsen 56', 0.03 xGThompson 49', 0.01 xGHugill 90+4', 0.53 xG, goalLowery 62', 0.14 xG, goal66%1.79 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 1.79 xG, 1 goal17%0.45 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.45 xG, 1 goal9%0.23 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals6%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals2%0.06 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

C. Robertson 45+2', 0.15 xGSamuels 45+1', 0.07 xGReilly 69', 0.07 xGHay 47', 0.05 xGReilly 90', 0.04 xGReilly 77', 0.03 xGAstley 90', 0.02 xG36%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals48%0.20 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals17%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.87 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.15 3 shots, 0 goals
0.14 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.68 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.29 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
72 min (74%) · Kilmarnock 2.35, Dundee FC 0.30 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
25 min (26%) · Kilmarnock 1.14, Dundee FC 0.13 xG

Line-ups

1211463361852441119StryjekSchjønning-LarsenStangerDeasThompsonTshibolaLoweryCurtisHugillKiltieAndersonYellow cardGoalOwn goalGoalGoalYellow cardYellow card87'90+2'58'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Neil McCann1343516102824122511O'HaraAstleyC. RobertsonKoumetioHallidayF. RobertsonJonesCotterillSamuelsWrightHayYellow cardYellow card67'78'86'68'68'Dundee FC 3-5-2Steven Pressley

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 58' Watkins for Anderson · off 87'
  • 87' Mayo for Schjønning-Larsen · yellow card 89'
  • 87' Watson for Watkins
  • 90+2' McKenzie for Kiltie

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 67' Bevan for C. Robertson · yellow card 83'
  • 68' Reilly for Wright
  • 68' Westley for Hay
  • 78' Oosenbrugh for Halliday
  • 86' Yogane for Cotterill

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
StryjekGK900.000.0003
Schjønning-LarsenRB8710.060.5323
StangerCB900.000.01015
Deas CB900.000.02013
ThompsonLB900.040.0424
TshibolaDM900.090.0336
LoweryDM9010.260.1614
CurtisRW900.950.7231
Hugill AM9021.370.0201
KiltieLW900.140.3431
Anderson ST580.330.0100
WatkinsFW290.080.0411
Mayo DF30.000.0000
WatsonMF30.000.0001
McKenzieMF00.170.0000

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
O'Hara GK900.000.0001
AstleyCB900.020.01013
C. RobertsonCB670.150.00013
KoumetioCB900.000.04014
HallidayRWB780.000.0200
F. Robertson CM900.000.1823
JonesCM900.000.1307
CotterillCM860.000.0506
SamuelsLWB900.070.1203
WrightST680.000.0903
HayST680.050.0813
Bevan FW230.000.0211
ReillyMF220.140.0500
WestleyMF220.000.0000
OosenbrughDF120.000.0000
YoganeFW40.000.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.17 → 1.22Dundee FC1.08 → 1.05Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.57 → 1.51Dundee FC1.60 → 1.65

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th4%–−4
St. Mirren
11th96%>99%+4

From the forecast before the match (12 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee FC
Expected goals1.651.11
Win49%25%
Expected Points1.731.01
Clean sheet33%19%

Kilmarnock 49%Draw 26%Dundee FC 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%6%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee FC win
Kilmarnock
11th4%–4%11%
St. Mirren
11th96%>99%96%89%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–09 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.49–1.21
  2. W3–02 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.40–2.11
  3. L0–125 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.71–0.50
  4. D2–211 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–1.32
  5. L0–34 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.60–2.30
  6. W2–021 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.71–0.79

Dundee FC

  1. W3–09 MayLivingston (H)xG 2.10–1.58
  2. W1–02 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 0.46–0.51
  3. L0–326 AprDundee United (A)xG 0.76–2.14
  4. D2–211 AprKilmarnock (A)xG 1.32–1.63
  5. L1–25 AprCeltic (H)xG 1.55–3.82
  6. L0–121 MarHearts (A)xG 0.56–1.64

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee FC
Position10th9th
Played3636
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠10–⁠1810–⁠9–⁠17
Points34 (0.94 per game)39 (1.08 per game)
Expected Points per game1.030.94
Goals43–⁠6638–⁠56
xG per game1.24–⁠1.861.01–⁠1.63
Home: points, xG per game1.22, 1.50–⁠1.621.56, 1.16–⁠1.61
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.97–⁠2.110.61, 0.85–⁠1.64
ManagerNeil McCann (14)Steven Pressley (36)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.17, 9thDundee FC1.08, 10thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.57, 10thDundee FC1.60, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock attack: 1.17Dundee FC attack: 1.081.171.08Dundee FCKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock defence: 1.57Dundee FC defence: 1.601.601.57

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+28%−35%+28%
Counter-attacks+26%+1%−72%−6%
Set pieces−4%+25%−13%−7%
Penalties−81%+113%+16%+16%
Headers−7%+6%−18%+10%
Left side−32%+23%−55%+11%
Centre+10%+32%−28%+8%
Right side−19%+9%−23%+32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−32%+32%Centre+10%+8%Right side−19%+11%Open play−14%+28%Counter-attacks+26%−6%Set pieces−4%−7%Headers−7%+10%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−55%+9%Centre−28%+32%Right side−23%+23%Open play−35%+28%Counter-attacks−72%+1%Set pieces−13%+25%Headers−18%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.24xG1.01
1.86xG against1.63
42%Possession43%
11.1Shots10.1
14.7Shots against15.4
3.8Shots on target3.2
1.9Big chances1.4
20.0Touches in the opposition box15.8
340Passes350
72%Pass accuracy75%
4.4Corners3.9
41%Field tilt36%
33.2Final-third entries32.1
9.7Box entries7.0
15.4Passes per defensive action20.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.421.80
Ahead221.202.11
Behind341.081.77

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.101.76
Ahead190.891.73
Behind300.951.37

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.284–10
16–300.220.269–10
31–450.270.2911–6
46–600.130.327–14
61–750.180.314–11
76–900.320.418–15

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.306–10
16–300.100.205–9
31–450.260.319–8
46–600.120.265–6
61–750.170.254–7
76–900.220.319–16

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 11Stryjek 10Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenBrandon 7Brown 7Stanger 13Mayo 13Schilte-Brown 10Deas 33Williams 3Thompson 18Schjønning-L… 6Schjønning-LarsenLyons 4Lyons 7Watson 7Brown 6Watson 15Lyons 11Tshibola 7Polworth 16Lowery 11Kiltie 7Kiltie 8Thompson 8Mayo 4Anderson 20Daniels 4Tiffoney 3Dackers 11John-Jules 10Hugill 94-4-2 in 6 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTMcCracken 35O'Hara 1Astley 15D. Wright 9Halliday 8Astley 17C. Robertson 10Graham 32Koumetio 11Samuels 2D. Wright 16Samuels 16Murray 1Hamilton 14D. Wright 7Dhanda 6Congreve 29Westley 3Jones 2Dhanda 15Robertson 9Digby 8Hamilton 18Jones 8Cotterill 7Yogane 25Westley 4Dhanda 3Murray 21Hay 10Westley 34-1-4-1 in 10 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (10), 3-4-3 (7), 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-5-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 April 2026Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 1.63–1.32
30 December 2025Dundee FC2–1KilmarnockxG 2.23–1.27
23 August 2025Kilmarnock0–0Dundee FCxG 1.11–0.26
10 May 2025Kilmarnock3–2Dundee FCxG 3.50–0.99
30 November 2024Kilmarnock1–1Dundee FCxG 1.28–0.75
3 November 2024Dundee FC3–2KilmarnockxG 1.58–1.04

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 2, Dundee FC won 2, and 7 were drawn. Goals 19–19 and xG 1.77–1.18 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Curtis11899410.330.17
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Dackers121,144200.330.10
Hugill10911420.300.08

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hay111,251410.280.10
Congreve302,514370.110.25
Murray241,945700.320.04
Westley171,241320.220.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.