Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Aberdeen 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 25 April 2026, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 34 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 16,600

Aberdeen Aremu 1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenKilmarnock
Goals10
xG0.500.71
Expected Points1.071.49

Aberdeen 21%Draw 44%Kilmarnock 35%

Most likely score 0–0, 29%. Final score 1–0, 14%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%1%14%14%4%3%3%1%29%22%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTShinnie on for Frame, 58'Geiger on for Cameron, 59'Palaversa on for Aremu and Knoester on for Armstrong, 72'Bwomono on for Milne, 81'Keskinen on for Olusanya, 87'Thompson on for Brandon, 5'McKenzie on for Schjønning-Larsen, 68'Magennis on for Kiltie and Anderson on for Clescenco, 77'Watson on for Lowery, 85'Lyons on for Curtis, 87'Aremu 1'Kilmarnock 0.71Aberdeen 0.5000.250.50.750153045607590HTShinnie on for Frame, 58'Geiger on for Cameron, 59'Palaversa on for Aremu and Knoester on for Armstrong, 72'Bwomono on for Milne, 81'Keskinen on for Olusanya, 87'Thompson on for Brandon, 5'McKenzie on for Schjønning-Larsen, 68'Magennis on for Kiltie and Anderson on for Clescenco, 77'Watson on for Lowery, 85'Lyons on for Curtis, 87'Aremu 1'0.710.50AberdeenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenKilmarnock

0.50 −0.71xG0.71 −0.50
0.91 −0.12xG on target0.17 −1.01
10 −2Shots11 0
4 +0.5Shots on target3 −0.7
3 +1.2Big chances1 −0.9
30 +9Touches in the opposition box19 −1
42% −6Possession58% +16
313 −80Passes430 +95
68% −9Pass accuracy74% +2
6 +1.2Corners5 +0.6
18 +2Tackles12 −4
4 −4.2Interceptions5 −3.0
40 +9Clearances35 +1
3 −0.3Saves3 −0.6
16 +2Fouls16 +3
1 −0.8Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Nisbet 90+2', 0.10 xGCameron 32', 0.09 xGCameron 54', 0.07 xGMilne 47', 0.05 xGOlusanya 51', 0.03 xGGeiger 74', 0.02 xGMilne 78', 0.01 xGShinnie 90+4', 0.01 xGOlusanya 54', 0.00 xGAremu 1', 0.11 xG, goal10%0.05 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals45%0.22 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals22%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals22%0.11 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Curtis 23', 0.30 xGTshibola 23', 0.13 xGHugill 16', 0.08 xGLowery 37', 0.05 xGLowery 76', 0.04 xGTshibola 60', 0.03 xGSchjønning-Larsen 16', 0.02 xGTshibola 16', 0.02 xGClescenco 50', 0.01 xGKiltie 66', 0.01 xGStanger 70', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%0.55 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.55 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals17%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenKilmarnock

0.20 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.21 7 shots, 0 goals
0.29 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.49 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · Aberdeen 0.11, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Aberdeen ahead
93 min (99%) · Aberdeen 0.38, Kilmarnock 0.70 xG

Line-ups

12223212832163252015MitovMilneMorrisonMolloyJensenAremuArmstrongFrameCameronOlusanyaNisbetYellow cardGoal81'72'72'58'59'87'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Stephen Robinson1214621521836112044StryjekBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenCurtisLoweryTshibolaKiltieClescencoHugillYellow cardYellow cardYellow card5'68'87'85'77'77'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Neil McCann

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 58' Shinnie for Frame
  • 59' Geiger for Cameron
  • 72' Knoester for Armstrong
  • 72' Palaversa for Aremu
  • 81' Bwomono for Milne
  • 87' Keskinen for Olusanya

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 5' Thompson for Brandon
  • 68' McKenzie for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 77' Magennis for Kiltie · yellow card 90+1'
  • 77' Anderson for Clescenco
  • 85' Watson for Lowery
  • 87' Lyons for Curtis

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
MitovGK900.000.0001
MilneCB810.060.0305
Morrison CB900.000.01013
MolloyCB900.000.03013
JensenRWB900.000.11210
AremuCM7210.110.0104
ArmstrongCM7210.000.1924
FrameLWB580.000.1817
CameronAM590.160.0102
OlusanyaST870.030.0300
NisbetST900.100.0511
ShinnieMF320.010.0000
GeigerMF310.020.0001
KnoesterDF180.000.0001
PalaversaMF180.000.1012
BwomonoDF90.000.0001
KeskinenFW30.000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
StryjekGK900.000.0001
BrandonRB50.000.0000
Stanger CB900.010.00010
Deas CB900.000.01014
Schjønning-LarsenLB680.020.0103
CurtisRM870.300.2401
Lowery CM850.090.0203
TshibolaCM900.180.0205
KiltieLM770.010.0123
ClescencoST770.010.4922
HugillST900.080.0203
ThompsonDF850.000.1536
McKenzieMF220.000.0101
Magennis MF130.000.0000
AndersonFW130.000.0000
WatsonMF50.000.0000
LyonsMF30.000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackAberdeen1.14 → 1.14Kilmarnock1.11 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.48 → 1.47Kilmarnock1.64 → 1.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
11th4%<1%−4
Kilmarnock
11th72%83%+11
St. Mirren
11th18%13%−5
Dundee FC
11th6%4%−2

From the forecast before the match (25 April 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.661.08
Win50%24%
Expected Points1.760.98
Clean sheet34%19%

Aberdeen 50%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 April 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win
Aberdeen
11th4%<1%2%12%
Kilmarnock
11th72%83%73%50%
St. Mirren
11th18%13%19%28%
Dundee FC
11th6%4%5%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W2–011 AprHibernian (H)xG 1.93–0.10
  2. L0–24 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.53–0.90
  3. L1–421 MarRangers (A)xG 0.68–1.61
  4. D1–114 MarFalkirk (H)xG 1.54–0.76
  5. L1–24 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.42–1.90
  6. L0–128 FebHearts (A)xG 0.39–2.33

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–211 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–1.32
  2. L0–34 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.60–2.30
  3. W2–021 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.71–0.79
  4. W1–014 MarHearts (H)xG 1.27–1.06
  5. L1–528 FebFalkirk (A)xG 0.39–3.14
  6. D1–121 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.50–2.05

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position8th11th
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠6–⁠186–⁠10–⁠17
Points33 (1.00 per game)28 (0.85 per game)
Expected Points per game1.180.99
Goals33–⁠4837–⁠65
xG per game1.21–⁠1.601.21–⁠1.92
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.49–⁠1.491.12, 1.44–⁠1.59
Away: points, xG per game0.76, 0.96–⁠1.700.56, 0.96–⁠2.26
ManagerStephen Robinson (4)Neil McCann (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackAberdeen1.14, 8thKilmarnock1.11, 9thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.48, 8thKilmarnock1.64, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprAberdeen attack: 1.14Kilmarnock attack: 1.111.141.11KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprAberdeen defence: 1.48Kilmarnock defence: 1.641.641.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%−5%−14%+29%
Counter-attacks+4%+36%+13%+7%
Set pieces−10%+49%−9%+28%
Penalties−21%−21%−80%+116%
Headers−29%+29%−10%+7%
Left side+14%+1%−37%+24%
Centre−24%+21%+5%+34%
Right side−21%+14%−15%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+14%+13%Centre−24%+34%Right side−21%+24%Open play−20%+29%Counter-attacks+4%+7%Set pieces−10%+28%Headers−29%+7%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−37%+14%Centre+5%+21%Right side−15%+1%Open play−14%−5%Counter-attacks+13%+36%Set pieces−9%+49%Headers−10%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.21xG1.21
1.60xG against1.92
48%Possession42%
11.5Shots11.2
15.0Shots against14.8
3.5Shots on target3.7
1.8Big chances1.9
21.3Touches in the opposition box20.1
393Passes335
77%Pass accuracy72%
4.8Corners4.4
44%Field tilt41%
35.0Final-third entries33.2
11.0Box entries9.7
14.1Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.161.62
Ahead141.071.29
Behind301.371.72

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.311.80
Ahead201.192.20
Behind351.111.87

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.212–5
16–300.190.237–7
31–450.240.344–9
46–600.200.302–7
61–750.210.259–7
76–900.280.279–13

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.293–9
16–300.180.288–10
31–450.280.2911–6
46–600.130.325–14
61–750.180.312–11
76–900.320.438–15

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 29Bråtveit 4Devlin 14Jensen 11Lobban 6Milne 23Morrison 8Devlin 2Knoester 23Molloy 5McIntyre 3Gyamfi 9Frame 6Molloy 4Armstrong 11Aouchiche 7Aremu 4Shinnie 15Polvara 7Geiger 5Devlin 6Milanovic 5Olusanya 4Aouchiche 7Cameron 5Armstrong 4Karlsson 13Keskinen 9Armstrong 4Nisbet 18Lazetic 9Yengi 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-3 (5), 4-1-4-1 (5), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 11Stryjek 7Brown 13Brandon 8Schjønnin… 7Schjønning-LarsenStanger 15Schilte… 15Schilte-BrownMayo 19Kiltie 8Lyons 3Deas 30Williams 3Thomps… 25ThompsonSchjønnin… 4Schjønning-LarsenBrannan 3Watson 23Curtis 3McKenzie 3Lyons 20Tshibola 5Thomson 2Polworth 19Kiltie 11Lowery 9Anderson 19Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 12Hugill 7Kiltie 45-3-2 in 6 of 33 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-4-2 (5), 4-3-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 January 2026Kilmarnock3–0AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
14 December 2025Aberdeen2–1KilmarnockxG 3.76–1.02
29 October 2025Kilmarnock0–1AberdeenxG 1.36–0.55
22 February 2025Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–0.43
26 December 2024Kilmarnock4–0AberdeenxG 4.02–0.50
25 August 2024Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 1.66–0.43

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 9, Kilmarnock won 6, and 0 were drawn. Goals 17–16 and xG 1.29–1.30 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet211,815910.400.09
Karlsson161,292500.340.12
Armstrong211,843140.150.19
Keskinen161,422330.150.19

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Curtis8651110.330.18
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Hugill7652320.350.10
Dackers121,144200.330.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.