Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 1–3 Hibernian

Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 36 · Half-time 0–3 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 7,644

Falkirk Broggio 72'

Hibernian Campbell 3', 20', Obita 40'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkHibernian
Goals13
xG0.631.10
Expected Points0.911.74

Falkirk 19%Draw 35%Hibernian 46%

Most likely score 0–1, 20%. Final score 1–3, 2%.

Hibernian goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+11%3%11%8%2%3%4%2%15%20%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTHenderson on for McCann, 37'Parkinson on for Wilson and Broggio on for Yeats, 59'Ross on for Lissah and Cartwright on for Tait, 70'Newell on for Campbell, 64'Andrews on for Chaiwa and Suto on for Boyle, 75'C. Cadden on for Elding, 90+3'Broggio 72'Campbell 3'Campbell 20'Obita 40'Hibernian 1.10Falkirk 0.6300.511.50153045607590HTHenderson on for McCann, 37'Parkinson on for Wilson and Broggio on for Yeats, 59'Ross on for Lissah and Cartwright on for Tait, 70'Newell on for Campbell, 64'Andrews on for Chaiwa and Suto on for Boyle, 75'C. Cadden on for Elding, 90+3'Broggio 72'Campbell 3'Campbell 20'Obita 40'1.100.63FalkirkHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkHibernian

0.63 −0.73xG1.10 −0.43
0.55 −0.75xG on target1.30 −0.13
8 −4Shots10 −2
1 −2.9Shots on target4 −0.5
1 −1.2Big chances3 +0.8
18 −2Touches in the opposition box13 −10
68% +17Possession32% −16
494 +92Passes230 −172
81% +4Pass accuracy56% −22
6 +1.3Corners5 +0.1
10 −9Tackles10 −2
10 +0.7Interceptions6 −2.5
24 −5Clearances45 +15
2 −1.1Saves0 −2.8
10 −2Fouls13 +2
2 0.0Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Miller 12', 0.30 xGRoss 86', 0.09 xGWilson 30', 0.08 xGMiller 84', 0.03 xGMiller 30', 0.02 xGStewart 83', 0.02 xGSpencer 45+4', 0.01 xGBroggio 72', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.47 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals16%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 1 goal2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

O'Hora 15', 0.17 xGNewell 90+2', 0.10 xGBoyle 62', 0.06 xGBoyle 62', 0.06 xGObita 65', 0.03 xGBarlaser 33', 0.02 xGObita 37', 0.02 xGCampbell 20', 0.42 xG, goalCampbell 3', 0.14 xG, goalObita 40', 0.07 xG, goal52%0.57 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.57 xG, 2 goals31%0.34 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 1 goal6%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals9%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkHibernian

0.21 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.67 5 shots, 2 goals
0.38 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
0.04 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.36 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
3 min (3%) · Falkirk 0.00, Hibernian 0.14 xG
Hibernian ahead
94 min (97%) · Falkirk 0.63, Hibernian 0.95 xG

Line-ups

1281520382122142916HogarthLissahNeilsonAllanMcCannSpencerTaitWilsonYeatsMillerStewart70'37'70'59'59'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn1541525142221321047SallingerO'HoraHanleyIredalePasslackChaiwaBarlaserObitaCampbellBoyleEldingGoalGoalGoalYellow card75'64'75'90+3'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray

Falkirk substitutes

  • 37' Henderson for McCann
  • 59' Broggio for Yeats · goal 72'
  • 59' Parkinson for Wilson
  • 70' Cartwright for Tait
  • 70' Ross for Lissah

Hibernian substitutes

  • 64' Newell for Campbell
  • 75' Andrews for Chaiwa
  • 75' Suto for Boyle
  • 90+3' C. Cadden for Elding

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
HogarthGK900.000.0001
LissahRB700.000.0106
NeilsonCB900.000.0106
AllanCB900.000.0106
McCannLB370.000.0003
SpencerDM9010.010.0828
TaitDM700.000.0402
WilsonRW590.080.1210
YeatsAM590.000.0502
MillerLW900.350.3110
StewartST900.020.0207
HendersonDF530.000.0103
BroggioFW3110.080.0201
ParkinsonFW310.000.0000
CartwrightMF200.000.0110
RossFW200.090.0001

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SallingerGK900.000.0001
O'HoraCB900.170.00010
HanleyCB900.000.00010
IredaleCB900.000.01013
PasslackRWB9010.000.0415
ChaiwaCM750.000.0133
BarlaserCM900.020.0104
ObitaLWB90110.120.2929
Campbell AM6420.570.0104
BoyleST7510.120.4111
EldingST900.000.0002
NewellMF260.100.0001
AndrewsMF150.000.0001
SutoFW150.000.0000
C. CaddenMF00.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.32 → 1.29Hibernian1.37 → 1.39Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.28 → 1.31Hibernian1.22 → 1.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkHibernian
Expected goals1.431.15
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.561.16
Clean sheet32%24%

Falkirk 43%Draw 27%Hibernian 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W1–02 MayMotherwell (H)xG 2.42–1.33
  2. L1–325 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.92–1.11
  3. L3–612 AprRangers (H)xG 1.70–3.94
  4. W3–24 AprMotherwell (A)xG 2.06–1.46
  5. L1–221 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.43–0.90
  6. D1–114 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.76–1.54

Hibernian

  1. L1–23 MayCeltic (H)xG 0.36–2.81
  2. L1–226 AprHearts (H)xG 0.54–1.83
  3. L0–211 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.10–1.93
  4. W3–04 AprKilmarnock (H)xG 2.30–0.60
  5. D0–021 MarMotherwell (A)xG 0.60–0.44
  6. D0–014 MarLivingston (H)xG 2.18–0.14

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkHibernian
Position6th5th
Played3535
Won, drawn, lost14–⁠7–⁠1413–⁠12–⁠10
Points49 (1.40 per game)51 (1.46 per game)
Expected Points per game1.431.64
Goals47–⁠5153–⁠41
xG per game1.36–⁠1.311.53–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game1.44, 1.63–⁠1.201.67, 1.86–⁠1.02
Away: points, xG per game1.35, 1.07–⁠1.421.24, 1.19–⁠1.39
ManagerJohn McGlynn (35)David Gray (75)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.32, 6thHibernian1.37, 4thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.28, 6thHibernian1.22, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayFalkirk attack: 1.32Hibernian attack: 1.371.371.32HibernianFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayFalkirk defence: 1.28Hibernian defence: 1.221.281.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+5%−11%−6%average
Counter-attacks+15%average+70%−31%
Set pieces−20%−7%+5%−35%
Penalties−41%−2%+38%−41%
Headers−23%+1%+15%−29%
Left side−45%−12%+10%+9%
Centre−1%−9%+8%−19%
Right side+42%−3%−6%−25%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHibernian concededLeft side−45%−25%Centre−1%−19%Right side+42%+9%Open play+5%averageCounter-attacks+15%−31%Set pieces−20%−35%Headers−23%−29%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdFalkirk concededLeft side+10%−3%Centre+8%−9%Right side−6%−12%Open play−6%−11%Counter-attacks+70%averageSet pieces+5%−7%Headers+15%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkHibernian

1.36xG1.53
1.31xG against1.20
51%Possession48%
12.2Shots12.2
12.4Shots against12.3
3.9Shots on target4.5
2.2Big chances2.2
20.4Touches in the opposition box23.2
402Passes402
77%Pass accuracy78%
4.7Corners4.9
48%Field tilt48%
36.6Final-third entries38.0
10.6Box entries11.5
12.6Passes per defensive action16.9

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.361.36
Ahead231.551.05
Behind241.171.46

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.411.15
Ahead281.651.24
Behind161.711.25

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.147–1
16–300.260.248–9
31–450.260.285–16
46–600.220.2010–8
61–750.250.1911–8
76–900.180.266–9

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.098–3
16–300.210.238–7
31–450.220.2910–9
46–600.320.159–4
61–750.210.144–8
76–900.310.3014–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 33Hogarth 2Adams 22Lissah 11Yeats 1Allan 18Neilson 11Donaldson 5Henderson 31McCann 23Lissah 9Hart 2Spencer 33Stewart 1Tait 25Cartwright 9Yeats 2Wilson 16Broggio 7Miller 5Miller 10Yeats 8Tait 5Miller 18Williams 6Ross 4Stewart 15MacIver 9Graham 74-2-3-1 in 34 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (34), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 30Smith 5O'Hora 24Garananga 2Mitchell 1Bushiri 23Hanley 21Iredale 30Obita 4Cadden 13Passlack 10Megwa 8Chaiwa 16Mulligan 16Newell 2Barlaser 25McGrath 6Levitt 4N. Cadden 20Obita 11McGrath 4McGrath 17Boyle 6Barlaser 4Boyle 17Elding 8Klidje 7Bowie 19Scarlett 6Youan 53-4-1-2 in 22 of 35 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (22), 3-4-3 (4), 3-1-4-2 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 January 2026Falkirk4–1HibernianxG 3.64–0.73
6 December 2025Hibernian3–0FalkirkxG 2.02–0.49
23 September 2025Falkirk2–2HibernianxG 1.18–2.43

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 1, Hibernian won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 6–6 and xG 1.77–1.73 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart161,329820.530.07
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7776400.460.07
Miller332,666690.270.23

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan6661410.630.18
Klidje7735310.660.04
Campbell2578130.340.19
Boyle231,821620.420.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.