Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 1–2 Hibernian

Thursday 26 December 2024, 12:30 · Tynecastle Park · Round 19 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,726

Hearts Bushiri 45+2' (og)

Hibernian Rowles 9' (og), Gayle 78'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsHibernian
Goals12
xG0.701.93
Expected Points0.502.29

Hearts 10%Draw 21%Hibernian 69%

Most likely score 0–2, 16%. Final score 1–2, 12%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%10%3%3%11%7%3%1%3%4%2%13%16%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDhanda on for Spittal, 70'Boateng on for Baningime, 78'Vargas on for Drammeh, 79'Boyce on for Halkett, 85'Gayle on for Youan, 68'Kwon on for Newell, 69'Miller on for O'Hora, 77'Obita on for N. Cadden, 85'Bushiri 45+2' (og)Rowles 9' (og)Gayle 78'Hibernian 1.93Hearts 0.7001230153045607590HTDhanda on for Spittal, 70'Boateng on for Baningime, 78'Vargas on for Drammeh, 79'Boyce on for Halkett, 85'Gayle on for Youan, 68'Kwon on for Newell, 69'Miller on for O'Hora, 77'Obita on for N. Cadden, 85'Bushiri 45+2' (og)Rowles 9' (og)Gayle 78'1.930.70HeartsHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsHibernian

0.70 −0.45xG1.93 +0.30
0.56 −0.47xG on target2.58 +1.13
15 +2Shots12 −1
5 +1.4Shots on target6 +1.9
0 −2.0Big chances3 +0.6
29 +3Touches in the opposition box17 −6
67% +12Possession33% −14
449 −11Passes226 −103
77% −2Pass accuracy59% −13
53% −5Field tilt47% −3
40 −5Final-third entries21 −14
9 −3Box entries12 +2
10.5 −2Passes per defensive action31.3 +17
6 −0.4Corners3 −3.0
13 −7Tackles13 −1
6 −3.5Interceptions10 +2.8
32 +10Clearances47 +17
5 +2.7Saves5 +2.3
10 −2Fouls10 −2
0 −1.4Offsides4 +2.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 90+3', 0.14 xGShankland 64', 0.10 xGDrammeh 15', 0.07 xGHalkett 6', 0.06 xGShankland 52', 0.06 xGShankland 45+2', 0.04 xGShankland 45+3', 0.04 xGBoateng 86', 0.04 xGDrammeh 1', 0.03 xGShankland 60', 0.03 xGSpittal 64', 0.03 xGSpittal 64', 0.02 xGPenrice 90+3', 0.02 xGPenrice 15', 0.01 xGOyegoke 60', 0.01 xG31%0.22 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals49%0.34 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals14%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

C. Cadden 22', 0.44 xGBoyle 24', 0.43 xGCampbell 9', 0.23 xGC. Cadden 71', 0.15 xGCampbell 19', 0.08 xGCampbell 29', 0.06 xGC. Cadden 90+2', 0.05 xGN. Cadden 18', 0.04 xGTriantis 22', 0.02 xGYouan 32', 0.01 xGYouan 59', 0.01 xGGayle 78', 0.41 xG, goal20%0.38 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals74%1.43 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.43 xG, 1 goal3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsHibernian

0.38 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.63 9 shots, 1 goal
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.28 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.30 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
43 min (45%) · Hearts 0.39, Hibernian 0.57 xG
Hibernian ahead
53 min (55%) · Hearts 0.31, Hibernian 1.36 xG

Line-ups

15415291463791621GordonOyegokeHalkettRowlesPenriceDevlinBaningimeDrammehShanklandSpittalWilsonYellow cardOwn goalYellow card85'78'79'70'Hearts 4-2-3-1Neil Critchley13533151226111932107SmithO'HoraBushiriIredaleC. CaddenTriantisNewellN. CaddenCampbellBoyleYouanOwn goalYellow card77'69'85'68'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray

Hearts substitutes

  • 70' Dhanda for Spittal
  • 78' Boateng for Baningime
  • 79' Vargas for Drammeh
  • 85' Boyce for Halkett

Hibernian substitutes

  • 68' Gayle for Youan · goal 78'
  • 69' Kwon for Newell
  • 77' Miller for O'Hora
  • 85' Obita for N. Cadden

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0222
OyegokeRB900.010.0210.0784
Halkett CB850.060.0100.23513
RowlesCB900.000.0110.1158
PenriceLB900.020.1230.1387
Devlin DM900.000.011−0.0218
BaningimeDM780.000.0100.0433
DrammehRW790.100.0100.0322
ShanklandAM900.410.0200.2853
SpittalLW700.050.1250.2861
WilsonST900.000.000−0.0101
DhandaMF200.000.0600.0521
BoatengMF120.040.0400.0320
VargasMF110.000.0310.0420
BoyceFW50.000.0110.0400

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SmithGK900.000.0000.0112
O'HoraCB770.000.0110.0126
Bushiri CB900.000.0000.0228
IredaleCB900.000.1010.10312
C. CaddenRWB900.640.1310.19310
TriantisCM900.020.0100.0428
NewellCM690.000.1630.2543
N. CaddenLWB8510.040.3630.4576
CampbellAM900.370.0100.0005
BoyleST900.430.2720.1116
YouanST680.020.010−0.0611
GayleFW2210.410.000−0.0301
KwonMF210.000.0300.0112
MillerDF130.000.0000.0002
ObitaDF50.000.2900.0713

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Penrice: 4 passesOyegoke and Baningime: 4 passesOyegoke and Drammeh: 4 passesOyegoke and Spittal: 4 passesDevlin and Spittal: 4 passesGordon and Halkett: 5 passesOyegoke and Shankland: 5 passesHalkett and Penrice: 5 passesDrammeh and Spittal: 5 passesGordon and Oyegoke: 6 passesHalkett and Baningime: 7 passesRowles and Baningime: 8 passesHalkett and Spittal: 8 passesShankland and Spittal: 8 passesGordon and Rowles: 9 passesDevlin and Baningime: 9 passesPenrice and Baningime: 10 passesRowles and Devlin: 14 passesHalkett and Devlin: 14 passesRowles and Halkett: 16 passesBaningime and Spittal: 16 passesRowles and Spittal: 17 passesOyegoke and Halkett: 19 passesOyegoke and Devlin: 19 passesPenrice and Spittal: 27 passesRowles and Penrice: 28 passesGordon: 15 completed passesOyegoke: 33 completed passesRowles: 47 completed passesHalkett: 42 completed passesPenrice: 43 completed passesDevlin: 38 completed passesBaningime: 32 completed passesDrammeh: 5 completed passesShankland: 9 completed passesSpittal: 41 completed passesWilson: 4 completed passes15154291463791621GordonOyegokeRowlesHalkettPenriceDevlinBaningimeDrammehShanklandSpittalWilsonStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Smith and N. Cadden: 3 passesC. Cadden and Campbell: 3 passesC. Cadden and Youan: 3 passesTriantis and Boyle: 3 passesTriantis and Youan: 3 passesN. Cadden and Campbell: 3 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 4 passesTriantis and Newell: 4 passesNewell and Campbell: 4 passesTriantis and Campbell: 5 passesSmith and Bushiri: 6 passesO'Hora and Triantis: 6 passesC. Cadden and Triantis: 6 passesIredale and N. Cadden: 8 passesNewell and Youan: 9 passesN. Cadden and Youan: 9 passesNewell and N. Cadden: 11 passesSmith: 9 completed passesIredale: 9 completed passesBushiri: 10 completed passesO'Hora: 13 completed passesC. Cadden: 8 completed passesTriantis: 14 completed passesNewell: 20 completed passesN. Cadden: 20 completed passesCampbell: 7 completed passesBoyle: 2 completed passesYouan: 13 completed passes13153351226111932107SmithIredaleBushiriO'HoraC. CaddenTriantisNewellN. CaddenCampbellBoyleYouanStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesPenrice16
PenriceRowles16
PenriceSpittal16
OyegokeHalkett14
RowlesHalkett13

Hibernian

FromToPasses
NewellN. Cadden7
N. CaddenIredale6
NewellYouan5
C. CaddenTriantis5
N. CaddenYouan5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5+0.94−2.83−2.010+3.24−2.77+1.48+0.68+2.43−1.14+1.42−3.77−0.15+0.32−1.21−1.81−2.53−1.12−0.51−1.01−0.20−1.62−0.21+0.40−0.50−0.71+0.70−1.11−4.68−4.73−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Hibernian

2−2.910+3.219+2.313+5.310+5.55−1.74−0.69+3.07+0.49+2.54−0.85+1.82−1.23−1.65+0.43−0.62−1.92−0.41−1.83−1.02+0.11−0.50−1.22+0.42−0.60−0.72+1.70−0.80−0.51+0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.020.010.020.020.040.060.020.050.020.07−0.010.020.020.040.010.140.040.120.020.140.180.24LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.030.010.100.010.010.030.010.050.01−0.010.01−0.020.170.16−0.060.020.200.41LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.26 → 1.23Hibernian1.32 → 1.35Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.34 → 1.38Hibernian1.37 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six20%10%−10
11th10%13%+3
Bottom5%8%+3
Hibernian
Top six33%48%+15
11th6%3%−3
Bottom2%1%−1

From the forecast before the match (26 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.501.21
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.571.16
Clean sheet30%22%

Hearts 43%Draw 27%Hibernian 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%7%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%1%2%1%9%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawHibernian win
Hearts
Top six20%28%17%10%
11th10%7%10%13%
Bottom5%3%6%8%
Hibernian
Top six33%24%32%48%
11th6%8%5%3%
Bottom2%4%2%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–122 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.75–1.28
  2. L0–115 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.15–1.57
  3. W2–07 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.75–0.54
  4. D1–11 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.15–0.62
  5. L1–423 NovCeltic (H)xG 0.85–3.87
  6. L0–110 NovRangers (A)xG 0.59–2.17

Hibernian

  1. W3–121 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.44–1.90
  2. W3–114 DecRoss County (H)xG 4.80–1.22
  3. L0–37 DecCeltic (A)xG 2.34–3.83
  4. W3–030 NovMotherwell (A)xG 3.15–0.75
  5. D3–326 NovAberdeen (H)xG 2.21–1.61
  6. L1–423 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.76–2.22

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position10th8th
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠4–⁠104–⁠6–⁠8
Points16 (0.89 per game)18 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.35
Goals20–⁠2724–⁠30
xG per game1.15–⁠1.501.63–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.25–⁠1.241.11, 1.81–⁠1.38
Away: points, xG per game0.44, 1.06–⁠1.770.89, 1.45–⁠1.83
ManagerNeil Critchley (9)David Gray (20)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.26, 5thHibernian1.32, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.34, 3rdHibernian1.37, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.26Hibernian attack: 1.321.321.26HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.34Hibernian defence: 1.371.371.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%−7%−4%−2%
Counter-attacks−35%+4%−7%+96%
Set pieces+4%average+43%+37%
Penalties−100%+104%+70%−32%
Headers−5%+21%+4%+18%
Left side+7%+8%+4%−19%
Centre−20%−12%+14%+41%
Right side−7%average+4%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+7%+5%Centre−20%+41%Right side−7%−19%Open play−14%−2%Counter-attacks−35%+96%Set pieces+4%+37%Headers−5%+18%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+4%averageCentre+14%−12%Right side+4%+8%Open play−4%−7%Counter-attacks−7%+4%Set pieces+43%averageHeaders+4%+21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.15xG1.63
1.50xG against1.61
55%Possession47%
12.8Shots13.4
11.4Shots against12.7
3.6Shots on target4.1
2.0Big chances2.4
25.7Touches in the opposition box23.5
460Passes329
78%Pass accuracy72%
6.4Corners6.0
57%Field tilt50%
44.9Final-third entries34.9
12.3Box entries10.0
12.8Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.101.80
Ahead161.151.12
Behind341.231.32

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.591.37
Ahead211.681.70
Behind301.651.85

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.211–3
16–300.140.204–3
31–450.150.293–5
46–600.100.332–6
61–750.170.174–4
76–900.390.296–6

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.291–5
16–300.220.283–4
31–450.350.157–4
46–600.220.233–4
61–750.410.215–0
76–900.280.465–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 2Oyegoke 9Taylor 4Forrester 3Kent 12Halkett 5Oyegoke 1Rowles 16Kingsley 2Penrice 12Kingsley 3Spittal 1Devlin 11Baningime 5Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 3Spittal 1Forrest 5Drammeh 3Vargas 3Shankland 6Grant 3Spittal 2Spittal 10Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Vargas 4Wilson 24-2-3-1 in 8 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBursik 13Smith 5Miller 12C. Cadden 6Ekpiteta 12Bushiri 5O'Hora 15Iredale 4Obita 14Newell 3Iredale 1Newell 10Kwon 9N. Cadden 4Triantis 10Boyle 8Youan 3C. Cadden 3Triantis 4Campbell 3Hoilett 3Hoilett 6N. Cadden 4Youan 4Kukharevych 10Youan 3Campbell 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (5), 3-4-1-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 October 2024Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.97–1.17
28 February 2024Hearts1–1HibernianxG 1.70–2.66
27 December 2023Hibernian0–1HeartsxG 1.85–1.30
7 October 2023Hearts2–2HibernianxG 1.25–1.32
27 May 2023Hearts1–1HibernianxG 0.11–1.50
15 April 2023Hibernian1–0HeartsxG 0.99–0.89

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Hibernian won 1, and 7 were drawn. Goals 13–8 and xG 1.15–1.42 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland171,491330.320.16
Vargas12963210.270.12
Forrest8718100.160.11
Dhanda6617010.080.20

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
N. Cadden8672410.410.34
Kukharevych13983300.570.02
Youan10826210.380.12
Hoilett10809210.260.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.