Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Celtic 3–1 Hearts

Saturday 16 May 2026, 12:30 · Celtic Park · Round 38 · Half-time 1–1 · Attendance 59,079

Celtic Engels 45+4' (pen), Maeda 87', Osmand 90+8'

Hearts Shankland 43'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHearts
Goals31
xG2.830.93
Non-penalty xG2.040.93
Expected Points2.650.23

Celtic 84%Draw 12%Hearts 4%

Most likely score 3–1, 14%. Final score 3–1, 14%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%3%1%7%1%6%2%6%7%3%2%2%1%12%13%12%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTIheanacho on for Tounekti, 46'Forrest on for Yang, 62'Saracchi on for Tierney and Osmand on for Trusty, 73'Murray on for Nygren, 90'Kent on for Altena, 47'Spittal on for Baningime, 51'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 67'Chesnokov on for Milne and Braga on for Kaboré, 68'Engels 45+4' (pen)Maeda 87'Osmand 90+8'Shankland 43'Celtic 2.83Hearts 0.9301230153045607590HTIheanacho on for Tounekti, 46'Forrest on for Yang, 62'Saracchi on for Tierney and Osmand on for Trusty, 73'Murray on for Nygren, 90'Kent on for Altena, 47'Spittal on for Baningime, 51'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 67'Chesnokov on for Milne and Braga on for Kaboré, 68'Engels 45+4' (pen)Maeda 87'Osmand 90+8'Shankland 43'2.830.93CelticHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHearts

2.83 +0.67xG0.93 −0.65
2.04Non-penalty xG0.93
2.22 +0.09xG on target1.01 −0.78
14 −2Shots12 −2
5 −0.6Shots on target2 −3.1
4 +0.5Big chances1 −1.4
23 −12Touches in the opposition box17 −11
66% 0Possession34% −20
463 −144Passes235 −184
81% −5Pass accuracy57% −19
9 +2.4Corners6 +0.4
7 −7Tackles17 0
7 0.0Interceptions9 +0.5
39 +13Clearances35 +4
1 −1.2Saves2 0.0
10 −2Fouls9 −2
2 +0.6Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Celtic

Trusty 3', 0.17 xGNygren 76', 0.17 xGNygren 80', 0.15 xGEngels 78', 0.10 xGIheanacho 79', 0.08 xGMaeda 66', 0.07 xGForrest 70', 0.04 xGTounekti 32', 0.03 xGJohnston 56', 0.03 xGMaeda 82', 0.03 xGNygren 57', 0.02 xGOsmand 90+8', 0.97 xG, goalMaeda 87', 0.16 xG, goal20%0.40 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal64%1.31 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 1.31 xG, 1 goal3%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals13%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Braga 86', 0.24 xGKingsley 86', 0.14 xGShankland 21', 0.06 xGSteinwender 90+2', 0.06 xGKyziridis 54', 0.05 xGKaboré 21', 0.03 xGKaboré 38', 0.03 xGKaboré 22', 0.02 xGAltena 37', 0.02 xGForrest 79', 0.02 xGDevlin 90+8', 0.01 xGShankland 43', 0.25 xG, goal28%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.26 xG, 1 goal53%0.50 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals10%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHearts

0.67 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.12 5 shots, 0 goals
1.00 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.37 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.82 7 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
85 min (83%) · Celtic 1.07, Hearts 0.86 xG
Celtic ahead
12 min (12%) · Celtic 0.97, Hearts 0.07 xG
Hearts ahead
6 min (6%) · Celtic 0.79, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

122656342271382338SinisaloJohnstonTrustyScalesTierneyMcGregorEngelsYangNygrenTounektiMaedaYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card73'73'62'90'46'Celtic 4-2-3-1Martin O'Neill2531519188914623911SchwolowKingsleySteinwenderFindlayMilneKyziridisDevlinBaningimeAltenaShanklandKaboréYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card68'67'51'47'68'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Iheanacho for Tounekti
  • 62' Forrest for Yang
  • 73' Saracchi for Tierney · yellow card 90+4'
  • 73' Osmand for Trusty · goal 90+8', 1 assist
  • 90' Murray for Nygren

Hearts substitutes

  • 47' Kent for Altena
  • 51' Spittal for Baningime
  • 67' Forrest for Kyziridis
  • 68' Braga for Kaboré
  • 68' Chesnokov for Milne

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0002
Johnston RB900.030.03111
Trusty CB730.170.0408
ScalesCB900.000.02016
TierneyLB730.000.1512
McGregor DM9010.000.0422
EngelsDM9010.890.2022
YangRW620.000.0111
Nygren AM900.350.0102
TounektiLW460.030.0100
Maeda ST9010.270.0513
IheanachoFW440.080.0401
ForrestFW280.040.0211
Saracchi DF170.000.0512
OsmandFW17110.970.4921
MurrayDF00.000.0001

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0100
KingsleyRB9010.140.1536
Steinwender CB900.060.00019
FindlayCB900.000.0007
MilneLB680.000.1014
KyziridisRM670.050.0004
Devlin CM900.010.0303
BaningimeCM510.000.0111
AltenaLM470.020.0101
Shankland ST9010.320.0331
KaboréST680.080.0002
KentDF430.000.01011
SpittalMF390.000.0002
ForrestMF230.020.0002
BragaFW220.240.0010
ChesnokovFW220.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackCeltic2.06 → 2.11Hearts1.51 → 1.47Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.91 → 0.89Hearts1.07 → 1.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title62%>99%+38
Hearts
Title38%–−38

From the forecast before the match (16 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals1.960.89
Win62%16%
Expected Points2.080.70
Clean sheet41%14%

Celtic 62%Draw 22%Hearts 16%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 51%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+6%5%2%4%1%4%1%7%6%3%4%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHearts win
Celtic
Title62%>99%––
Hearts
Title38%–>99%>99%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W3–213 MayMotherwell (A)xG 1.38–1.24
  2. W3–110 MayRangers (H)xG 1.08–0.94
  3. W2–13 MayHibernian (A)xG 2.81–0.36
  4. W3–125 AprFalkirk (H)xG 1.11–0.92
  5. W1–011 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.94–0.25
  6. W2–15 AprDundee FC (A)xG 3.82–1.55

Hearts

  1. W3–013 MayFalkirk (H)xG 0.56–0.28
  2. D1–19 MayMotherwell (A)xG 1.33–0.55
  3. W2–14 MayRangers (H)xG 0.76–0.82
  4. W2–126 AprHibernian (A)xG 1.83–0.54
  5. W3–111 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.74–2.21
  6. D2–25 AprLivingston (A)xG 1.87–2.00

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position2nd1st
Played3737
Won, drawn, lost25–⁠4–⁠824–⁠8–⁠5
Points79 (2.14 per game)80 (2.16 per game)
Expected Points per game2.021.71
Goals70–⁠4066–⁠31
xG per game2.16–⁠0.981.58–⁠1.02
Home: points, xG per game2.39, 2.36–⁠0.692.58, 1.59–⁠0.93
Away: points, xG per game1.89, 1.97–⁠1.251.72, 1.56–⁠1.11
ManagerMartin O'Neill (17)Derek McInnes (37)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackCeltic2.06, 1stHearts1.51, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.91, 1stHearts1.07, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayCeltic attack: 2.06Hearts attack: 1.512.061.51HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayCeltic defence: 0.91Hearts defence: 1.071.070.91

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+95%−35%+10%−18%
Counter-attacks−24%−53%+3%−21%
Set pieces−3%−25%+23%−29%
Penalties+31%+13%−6%−100%
Headers+41%−29%+25%−14%
Left side+65%−40%+15%−7%
Centre+70%−33%+20%−31%
Right side+11%−33%−4%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+65%−15%Centre+70%−31%Right side+11%−7%Open play+95%−18%Counter-attacks−24%−21%Set pieces−3%−29%Headers+41%−14%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+15%−33%Centre+20%−33%Right side−4%−40%Open play+10%−35%Counter-attacks+3%−53%Set pieces+23%−25%Headers+25%−29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.16xG1.58
0.98xG against1.02
66%Possession54%
16.5Shots14.3
9.2Shots against9.8
5.6Shots on target5.1
3.5Big chances2.4
34.9Touches in the opposition box27.9
606Passes420
86%Pass accuracy76%
6.6Corners5.6
75%Field tilt60%
63.7Final-third entries40.7
20.3Box entries12.3
10.6Passes per defensive action11.8

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level432.230.82
Ahead321.721.19
Behind152.910.98

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.340.97
Ahead301.821.15
Behind151.770.90

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.1311–6
16–300.320.159–7
31–450.400.1812–5
46–600.240.269–12
61–750.330.1112–6
76–900.480.1617–4

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.134–5
16–300.250.1213–8
31–450.260.1710–5
46–600.300.1912–6
61–750.180.1810–2
76–900.390.2417–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 26Sinisalo 11Ralston 9Araujo 9Donovan 7Trusty 22Carter-Vickers 7Murray 4Scales 33Tierney 4Tierney 24Saracchi 8McCowan 3Nygren 24McCowan 6Ralston 1McGregor 35Engels 21Hatate 16Oxlade-Chamber… 5Oxlade-ChamberlainYang 15Nygren 4Tounekti 4Maeda 12Kenny 8Cvancara 7Maeda 16Tounekti 12Yang 64-3-3 in 20 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (20), 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 31Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 15Steinwender 13Altena 5Halkett 30Kent 5Steinwender 3Findlay 32McCart 3Shankland 1Milne 17Kingsley 13McCart 3Kyziridis 9Milne 7Braga 4Baningime 17Leonard 12McEntee 7Devlin 24Spittal 5Kyziridis 21Spittal 5Braga 5Shankland 25Kaboré 11Findlay 1Braga 25Magnússon 4Milne 14-4-2 in 16 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (16), 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 January 2026Hearts2–2CelticxG 1.66–1.35
7 December 2025Celtic1–2HeartsxG 1.87–0.52
26 October 2025Hearts3–1CelticxG 1.57–0.88
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02
23 November 2024Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.85–3.87
14 September 2024Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.88–0.65

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 12, Hearts won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 39–21 and xG 2.38–0.97 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny8688420.890.07
Cvancara7528210.720.17
Nygren282,4531650.470.28
Forrest3738110.230.43

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré131,106520.530.16
Shankland272,4101530.430.13
Braga342,8791430.450.11
Kyziridis312,724470.200.26

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.